RealGM Analysis
It is never wise to overreact to last week’s results, especially since it was just the first week of the NFL season.
I support looking back to Week 1 results to find some talking points but given the no contact emphasis of the NFL, coupled with starters barely playing during the preseason it is wise to take a step back and understand what just happened in a broader contest. New coaches, new QB’s and marquee free agents made their debut last week. Team chemistry is a work in progress when multiple changes occur. So what really happened last week?
This report will take a look at each team’s week one performance and provide a brief look forward to the next week.
BUFFALO BILLS:
Looking back:
QB Manual managed the game effectively and Buffalo ran 60% of the time, a very high number in NFL circles. It’s too early to gauge if the run defense is better. The OL was fine in pass protection.
Looking forward:
Buffalo hosts Miami week #2. 9-7 might make the AFC playoffs. Divisional tiebreakers will be huge. Based on week one results this game could go either way.
MIAMI DOLPHINS:
Looking back:
Miami has consistently produced sub 60% pass defenses and decent run defenses. Their defensive sack totals are also consistently above the league average. Nothing changed hosting New England! My column, “Did the preseason mean anything” is written for a reason. Miami’s offensive line looked far more cohesive in August and New England sacked Tannehill just once. As my team keys noted, this is all about Joe Philbin now.
Looking Forward:
The offensive line will get tested vs. Buffalo’s front four. RB Moreno was a difference maker week one and could find more holes to run through this week.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS:
Looking back:
The NFL announces who is inactive for each team over an hour before game time. Pay attention! WR Dobson was inactive and one of my New England keys was having him healthy to stretch the field. I was not surprised Miami beat New England. The trade of Logan Mankins puts Brady in a bit more jeopardy. How healthy is DT Wilfork? The run defense was substandard.
Looking forward:
Playing Minnesota at their place suddenly gets more interesting. Can New England generate a pass rush? The pass D% has a chance to stay under the magic # of 60% but a pass rush would help. Brady has plenty of underneath options, but again, will WR Dobson be available to stretch the field?
NEW YORK JETS:
Looking back:
The Jets left points on the table vs. Oakland and one of their goals moving forward must be to finish drives. Rex Ryan is a defensive coach who likes to emphasize the run game and he has a varied run game now. Still, effective running won’t always translate into NFL points. I liked the start for WR Decker. The Jets, maybe for the first time in the Rex Ryan era will field a below average secondary. Rookie Derek Carr was 20-32 with no interceptions. This is a must watch area moving forward.
Looking forward:
I heard analysts say that the Jets will be blitzing Aaron Rodgers relentlessly. I disagree. They need to vary their defensive pressure to keep Green Bay off balance but I believe they blitzed repeatedly week one only because they were facing a rookie QB who would not be able to make more than one read in his initial NFL game. I suspect the Jets can run on Green Bay but I’m going to be watching to see if Geno Smith can have success vs. a veteran Green Bay defense.
BALTIMORE RAVENS:
Looking back:
62 passes! Baltimore was not built to be a pass only team and that spelled doom. This was the third time in two seasons that poor clock management at the end of the first half coast them points. Like with Green Bay a season ago it changed a win into a loss. What were they thinking with about six seconds left on the clock! I like that the defense forced six field goal tries. As I noted in the preseason report, Dennis Pitta was ready! Baltimore had no sacks week one.
Looking forward:
The Ravens had situational edges week one and in week two faces a generally slow starting Pittsburgh team on short rest. Instead of a 2-0 start, Baltimore is likely not focused at all now and could start 0-2, losing two home Divisional games! I called 9/7 a key game. This game on 9/11 now is magnified in importance. I won’t get into the off-field stuff in this report.
CINCINNATI BENGALS:
Looking back:
Cincy looked the best of all the AFC North teams in August and that generally carried over week one with a solid 3-0 sack ratio and a highly efficient QB Andy Dalton. The jury may still be out on having to replace defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer but thanks to Baltimore and their awful game plan this veteran unit had no issues.
Looking forward:
Atlanta will provide a tough test for the defense. In the past this type of early season game was trouble for the Bengals. It will be interesting to see if Cincinnati overwhelms Atlanta’s defense. If so, this might be a team still on the rise.
CLEVELAND BROWNS:
Looking back:
Talking about overreacting, people might have felt that this team was looking at 0-16 based on how they played in the first half vs. Pittsburgh. Instead, Cleveland rallied, and Hoyer secured his job for at least a couple more weeks. Ben Tate is a bruising running back but Cleveland found out they can diversify in the backfield with West and the underrated Crowell. As I noted, he ran 7.0 in August. This is still a team with issues at WR.
Looking forward:
New Orleans has issues in the fourth quarter, so Hoyer may have a decent day, but I expect the Saints to produce interceptions, unlike a Pittsburgh team that has lingered among the bottom for years in that statistical area. Defensive pressure was good week one. Don’t expect miracles, so watch if Cleveland continues to be competitive.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS:
Looking back:
Ben Roethlisberger is most comfortable in the fourth quarter, rallying his team to victory. Did he ask the Steelers to make this one close just to keep things interesting? Seriously though, the warning signs were there in August. I noted in the August notes for this team that bringing back DL Keisel was really just an admission that nose tackle play was lacking. Pittsburgh allowed 30-183 on the ground vs. Cleveland! I see age on the defensive line and in the secondary and an offensive line still allowing sacks.
Looking forward:
It’s hardly gloom and doom! Pittsburgh is a perennial slow starting team so if they steal a win at distracted Baltimore they will be 2-0, with perhaps their best football ahead of them. Ben got improved play from the WR spot last week. It’s early, but a win here could mean two AFC North teams firmly in the playoff picture.
HOUSTON TEXANS:
Looking back:
That was a good win! JJ Watt is elite and he showed it. RB Foster returned to go 27-103. WR Hopkins is the #2 option on this team but would be an aspiring #1 guy on many teams. I know they allowed just 6 points but I still have concerns about their pass D% which was over 64% in August and 29-37 week one.
Looking forward:
Houston may not face a good offensive team all of September! Expecting to face former Texan QB Matt Schaub out in Oakland this Sunday they will instead face rookie QB Derek Carr. Foster thrived in week one with no preseason work, so will there be aches and pains having played his first full game in quite some time? Fitzgerald was not intercepted in week one. That is the ultimate key as to whether or not Houston is a true playoff contender.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS:
Looking back:
Is it time to look at Bradshaw and Dan Herron at running back? Richardson was 6-20 (3.33 per carry), an improvement over ’13 and August ’14. I did not expect such a great first game performance from Reggie Wayne and I think this bodes well for the Indy pass attack moving forward. One sack. With Mathis now out for the year, defensive sacks will be harder to come by.
Looking forward:
As noted in my team preview, the Colts continue to make draft day mistakes. The buzz is negative on their GM. What is it about the Colts and their refusal to draft defensive players? Three draftees made the team, and just one was a defensive player. I love their schedule but don’t necessarily believe the team is better than in ’13. Andrew Luck is a winner, however.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS:
Looking back:
I play in one survivor league, and chose the Lions to beat the NYG Week 1. I suspect the most played team was Philly and Jacksonville was up 17-0 at the half. The stat sheet shows a Jacksonville team that played well even though I know they have to be disappointed at the final results. Jacksonville has 151 sacks in their last 96 games (six years). They had five on the road week one. RB Gerhart was 18-42 week one. Is he really a feature guy?
Looking forward:
I think this could turn out better than what many expect, but likely without immediate results. I think the offensive line will still allow sacks, and the run game and of course the pass game (thanks to a lack of veteran WR’s) will be erratic. Don’t be surprised if they are competitive in most games, but winning will depend more on how their opponents coach and play.
TENNESSEE TITANS:
Looking back:
I listed Jake Locker and his pass % as the #1 key for this team. Jake hit 70% in August and 23-33 vs. a quality KC pass defense week one. 2nd year WR Hunter was also listed as a key and he was 3-63. If the pass D% improves this would make Tennessee a viable playoff team. They allowed 19-35 (3 interceptions) week one but let’s not overreact here.
Looking forward:
I want to see Jake sustain his accuracy which he just might do given the coaching change as well as the defenses he will face in ’14. I think there will be growing pains with the sack ratio and with the pass D% which I still project exceeding 60%. New coaches who win early often keep the momentum going as the players buy in faster. A win 9/14 vs. Dallas would be nice.
DENVER BRONCOS:
Looking back:
I was concerned about LB play coming into the season and that concern remains. I think Denver will exceed the projected NFL proposition play of 40.5 sacks. I like RB Ball but Denver misses the elusiveness of Moreno. Not having Wes Welker caused a few passes to lack the usual precision timing between QB and WR.
Looking forward:
I expect a solid performance week two with Denver coaches reminding the team to finish the game better than they did a week ago. Team chemistry defensively won’t be perfect early on. Everything else looks about as expected.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS:
Looking back:
Tennessee looked a lot better than KC did in August and it certainly showed in September. It is never a good thing when Donnie Avery is your go-to WR. To his credit he went 7-84 but is hardly an elite threat. I noted as a key in the KC preview to watch the pass D% as the schedule is tougher now. 22-33 vs. Jake Locker is not a good sign! The +18 turnover ratio starts out at -3, never a good thing when coupled with the elevated ’14 schedule (double whammy, 85% win regression). RB Charles needs to carry the ball more than 7 times! LB Houston had 2 sacks which is a great sign.
Looking forward:
Will KC panic if 0-2 after an expected loss at Denver? I called the game 9/21 at Miami a key game. It most certainly will be!
OAKLAND RAIDERS:
Looking back:
It is incredibly difficult for a rookie QB to face a Rex Ryan coached defense. I felt QB Carr handled it well under the circumstances. Still, he completed 20 passes for just 151 yards and it took a really great catch to get Oakland a TD in the final minutes of that game as otherwise they would have been held to 7 points. The run game was ineffective but I won’t read much into that with the Jets stacking the line and coming off a ’13 season where they were the #1 run defense in the NFL. I like the front seven on defense much more than the Raider secondary.
Looking forward:
I think the run game will be fine, and we’ll find out right away if that is the case facing a probably mediocre run D in Houston. This game might come down to the Raider back seven finding a way to intercept the often error-prone Fitzgerald. Oakland allowed 34-212 on the ground to an effective and varied Jets run attack. RB Foster could make things difficult in this one provided he can be at full strength after playing in his first significant game in quite some time.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS:
Looking back:
San Diego and Arizona looked like two evenly matched teams coming into their game and certainly nothing changed after the game, which resulted in an 18-17 Arizona win. The offensive line continued to build on its fine ’13 season allowing no sacks. Arizona had the NFL’s 2nd best run defense in ’13 so 24-52 was not a huge surprise. WR Floyd was productive and that is a huge positive moving forward. Two of my keys for ’14 were fixing the pass D% and winning more one score games. Those areas were disappointing week one. Overall however I think week one went about as expected for this team.
Looking forward:
Seattle has 10 days before playing San Diego, while these Chargers have less than six full days of preparation. Rivers and San Diego often play their best vs. playoff teams so a close game would not be a real surprise. More importantly, the Chargers must continue to show improvement in all areas defensively while making sure their special team defense is not a liability.