Denver Broncos:                  

2013 RECORD: 13-3  
2012 RECORD: 13-3   
2011 RECORD: 8-8   
2010 RECORD: 4-12   

Team Overview: Just when did I realize Denver would not win the Super Bowl, spoiling a magical season for Peyton Manning and the Denver offense?  How about when the opera singer came out in 49 degree weather without gloves (+250, historically nearly a sure thing for her) and football player Peyton Manning came out WITH gloves!  Seattle proved way too physical for the precision Denver pass attack, and even worse, Seattle’s pass offense was able to pass at will against a suspect pass D.  One loss does not mean Denver is a mediocre team, as actually they earned the right to be considered an elite team in ’13.  What it does mean is that the team is far from complete, needing help at many defensive positions and in their special team units, which were average at best during the regular season and clearly exposed in the Super Bowl.  The good news is that Peyton Manning is of course elite.  The even better news is that few, if any teams can replicate how Seattle plays defense.  The pieces are in place for another Super Bowl run with perhaps an improved defense taking the pressure off Manning when the cold weather hits.

Key Stats: Denver went off the charts on many offensive numbers.  Their 606 points scored was 161 more than the 2nd best team (Chicago).  They had 435 1st downs (+96 ratio) or 164 more than the Jags.  They compiled a record 7,317 yards, more than 100 per game than their opponents.  The 3rd down conversion rate was outstanding at 46%.  Even the pass D was solid at 58.2% (6th).  The fumble ratio was -7, but that can be correctable.  With Peyton at QB the OL had it “easy”, and they allowed just 20 sacks.  One area that reared its ugly head in the Super Bowl was kick return D.  In the regular season they were dead last, allowing 29.3 yards per return.  Spread-wise, Denver was favored by 7 or more in 13-16 games so the old John Fox dog trends are meaningless.  The general team trend worked, as Denver moved to 20-6 off a bye (11-2 off a loss/bye).  Denver was 1-0 on MNF (21-32 overall) and 1-0 as a HF on MNF (10-14 historically).

Free Agency and Staff Notes: Denver cares!  Not much was done (or needed) offensively where WR Sanders tries to replace WR Decker and OG’s Beadles left.  Denver does get OT Clady back from an early injury and added OC Montgomery.  RB Moreno left for Miami.  All areas on defense have seen changes.  DE Ware comes over from Dallas.  DL Robert Ayers left, as did. DE/LB Shaun Phillips, who was in Denver for just one year.  Reliable LB Woodyard is gone, but Jamar Chaney has some talent.  Denver released CB Bailey and saw Rodgers-Cromartie leave but adding CB Talib and safety Ward more than makes up for the losses.  Electric but fumble prone kick returner Trindon Holiday must be replaced.

2014 Draft: Other than OT Schofield, Denver hit the need board early by selecting a draft dropping CB and a WR who is a good fit for their scheme.  LB Barrow matched my #1 need but the remaining picks are likely not going to help, considering that NR players seldom even become starters (36 years of data supports this conclusion).  Did Denver wait too long in addressing LB?  It seems they drafted only role players after the 2nd round.   NOTE: Denver signed my #13 rated RB, Bibbs, after the draft.  Bibbs is strong and durable but is a slow, straight-line guy with poor hand size.   

Roster Analysis:

QB: Peyton Manning is one of the all-time greats. 

RB: Montee Ball is all in with Moreno gone.  For whatever reason Ronnie Hillman needs to get out of John Fox’s doghouse.  A pair of UFA’s back them up.

WR: Thomas and Welker are great, but concussion issues may finally catch up to Welker.  Sanders will probably see his #’s increase playing with Peyton.  Caldwell and the rookie Latimer add depth.

TE: This goes four deep, and all four are good to great!

OL: LT Clady is back, making this group whole again.  How good is RT Chris Clark? 

DL: Stabilizing.  Ware adds instant sack value to a team with 93 of them the past two seasons.  DT’s Williams and Knighton will be in their 2nd years here in Denver. 

LB: Nate Irving is coming along.  Von Miller had injury and suspension issues in ’13 but when focused he has all-pro potential.  Trevthan will be out for 6-8 weeks, leaving one spot a bit thin.  Jamar Chaney and perhaps rookie Barrow will try to fill the void.

CB: For the last two years it’s been one and done for the starters.  The three main guys are now the solid Talib, journeyman Harris and rookie Roby.  Webster and Carter back them up.

Safety: SS TJ Ward is a solid upgrade.  He’ll team with Moore.  Bolden slides over from CB to add back-up help.

Special Teams: The kicking game is fine, although Prater is in a cold streak right now.  He also might be facing a four game suspension!  Denver hopes rookie WR Norwood wins the return job.  The KR D has to get better (easily dead last in ’13).

Coaching: John Fox reminds me of Marty Schottenheimer.  Both are B+ coaching types (Marty may be A-) but get conservative at times.  Fox makes occasional mistakes at the wrong times.  Jack Del Rio is a better than average DC.

Team Keys: Fixing the return defense.  Wes Welker’s health.  LB play. 

Did the preseason mean anything? Denver had little to no problem in August.  Peyton Manning threw 11 incompletions.  Perhaps he’s getting old as he completed just under 80% of his attempts.  Montee Ball was sparingly used, but Ronnie Hillman ran just 17-58.  He made it into the doghouse in ’13 and has to fight to get more playing time.  All WR’s and TE’s are ready although Welker (7-64) needs to sit, 1st due to concussions and 2nd due to a 9/2 announced suspension.  The D allowed under 10 points per game and there are no red flags.  Newcomer performances were as follows: DL Ware had a sack and looked good.  He joins the rest of the DL, including 2nd year DT Sylvester Williams in making this unit deeper.  DT Austin had 7 tackles and a sack and might finally have found a place to show off his talents.  Rookie LB Barrow looks good.  The unit needs him early as Woodyard is gone, Trevathan is on suspension and Von Miller has not played yet off his season ending injury.  Rookie DB Roby was solid and CB Bolden is finally healthy and adds depth.  Talib was nicely used and safety TJ Ward saw some action.  Rookie WR Burse hopes to elevate his mediocre August return #’s.  PK Prater is on suspension and the current PK is just a plug in guy.

Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: Denver opens defense of its AFC title by hosting the Colts on Sunday night.  Indy beat Denver a year ago.  The revenge Super Bowl game at Seattle takes place 9/21.  Denver will be tested in ’14 with games vs. the tough NFC West along with New England, Indy, Cincy and of course KC and San Diego twice.  The bye is early, followed by winnable games vs. Arizona and at the Jets.  That game in New York marks Peyton Manning’s return to the site where Denver lost to Seattle in last year’s Super Bowl.  They’ll host San Fran on Sunday Night before hosting San Diego on Thursday Night.  San Diego has been tough to beat, even at Denver but the Chargers won’t have much time to prepare for this road test.  Denver has 10 days off before embarking on a three game road test that begins at New England and continues with Oakland and the Rams.  This will be the 4th straight regular season road trip to New England.  On 11/23 Miami and former Denver RB Moreno visit Denver.  Six of Denver’s last nine games are on the road, including December tilts at San Diego and at Cincy on the final Monday Night game of the year.  Denver closes the season at home vs. Oakland. 

Bottom Line: It will be quite interesting to see how the new pieces on defense fit together in September.  The D will be tested by Andrew Luck and a great group of WR’s, accurate Alex Smith and solid RB Jamaal Charles, Seattle, with Russell Wilson and powerful Marshawn Lynch and Arizona and their solid skill position players.  I see them about 11-3 if they split games vs. KC and more than that if the defense bonds early on.  December games at SD and Cincy won’t be easy, but that still means 11-5 is clearly possible.  Make no mistake, this team is highly motivated and has the right kind of players in charge of the bus. 

Key Game: 11/2 at New England.  December games at SD and Cincy may determine playoff seeding but the head to head tiebreaker with New England might be the ultimate decider.  Handicapping Tip: Denver is 20-6 against the spread after a bye, and 11-2 if that bye week follows a loss.  Denver hosts Arizona after their bye week. 

2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 33 

Kansas City Chiefs:      

2013 RECORD: 11-5  
2012 RECORD: 2-14   
2011 RECORD: 7-9   
2010 RECORD: 10-6          

Team Overview: Replacing HC Crennel was not going to be difficult.  Andy Reid injected much needed life into the Chiefs and the acquisition of careful QB Alex Smith turned a -24 turnover ratio from ’12 into last year’s +18 ratio.  That alone resulted in 147 “found” points at 3.5 points per turnover.  11-5 was the result, even though KC fans feel let down after starting 9-0 and then blowing a big lead in the playoffs.  The truth is that KC’s true level is somewhere between that 9-0 start and the disappointing 2-6 finish.  This is a good team that still has work to do in a few key areas.  With Philly, Reid had a strong voice in the draft room, which led to good draft trade value (and quality team depth) but also several questionable player selections.  Unfortunately, that same pattern is rapidly developing here in KC.  These are the mistakes that must be corrected before KC can take the next step.

Key Stats: KC came back to earth after their 9-0 start but there is plenty of talent on the roster.  The point D survived to finish 5th and the pass D% was 2nd at 56.4%.  Despite the emergence of NT Poe the KC run D needs work as 4.5 per carry is too high.  The number was 4.5 in ’12.  Yes, the turnover ratio was great but KC is extremely unlikely to repeat a +11 return and defensive TD edge.  One aspect of the D that needs work is their 24th rated overall yardage number.  Sacks for KC move up from 27 to 47 (tie 6th).  KC had the 4th rated punt return D (6.5).  Spread-wise, KC was 0-1 as a home dog and as a Divisional home dog with revenge.  They usually excel in these roles, but Reid himself was not great as home dog in Philly.  KC was never great as a road favorite and was 3-11 entering ’13 as a non-conference road favorite.  This was a role Reid was great at and KC excelled on the road in ’13.  KC was 1-1 with same season revenge to move that spread record to 28-14.  They remain 13-6 as a MNF dog.

Free Agency and Staff Notes:The losses outweigh the gains.  Possession WR and punt return specialist McCluster is gone, along with LT Albert and OG’s Schwartz and Asamoah on offense.  The defense loses DE Tyson Jackson and CB Brandon Flowers.  Arriving are OL Jeff Linkenbach, DT Vance Walker, LB Joe Mays and safety Jerron McMillon. 

2014 Draft: KC lost its 2nd round pick as a final payment for QB Alex Smith. For me, the solution was obvious; trade DOWN in round one and select WR Lee, or trade down a bit farther (to get an extra 2nd instead of a 3rd) and get WR Matthews or WR Robinson.  KC instead went DE and then waited 64 picks before taking a lower rated CB.   KC made no trades in this deep draft, settling for a sparkplug situational RB and a pair of lower rated developmental OL.  Where are the WR’s?  Who will stop the run?  As for QB Murray, I’m high on him.  He’ll need to be the savior in order for this draft to have any chance for success.  NOTE: The only rated positional player KC added after the draft WR Albert Wilson (* rated).  Wilson is small and quick with some return skill.  KC signed #1 rated PK Santos.  He hit 35-38 under 50 yards, with some clutch kicks, but much of his kicking was indoors, so that could affect his great kickoff length.  KC also got a long snapper who was 363-363 in snaps.  Is that the best they could do on draft day?

Roster Analysis:

QB: Alex Smith had an instant positive effect on KC’s turnover ratio.  Aaron Murray comes off a serious injury but has a shot to start in the future.

RB: As expected, RB Charles thrived under Andy Reid.  He’s fragile, so watch his health.  Knile Davis is now two years removed from a major injury but only a few months removed from another injury.  Cyrus Gray adds depth.

WR: Bowe is as inconsistent a #1 WR as there is in the NFL.  This is probably his last year in KC, making it more difficult to understand why KC ignored this area in the deepest WR draft in the history of the NFL.  Avery is the 2nd best option.  My best guess is that UFA Albert Wilson is the 3rd best option!

TE: All eyes will be on 2nd year TE Kelce who was on IR as a rookie.  Fasano is the starter but he’s hardly an impact player.

OL: KC drafted projects in ’12 and ’14, sandwiched between #1 overall pick Eric Fisher in ’13.  This is quite possibly the youngest NFL OL and also one of the worst.  Perhaps the long term prognosis may be better if these guys do develop.

DL: NT Poe did a nice job in year #2.  He’s surrounded by awfully mediocre talent (Devito, Walker, Bailey, etc.).

LB: KC’s record began to tumble thanks to some injuries at LB.  Johnson, Hali and Houston aren’t bad but have not been 100% healthy.  The other slot might be filled by newcomer Joe Mays, with situational rookie sacker Dee Ford providing OLB/DE depth.

CB: Flowers left, replaced by FA Chris Owens.  Rookie CB Gaines has potential but the back-ups are otherwise nothing special.

Safety: Eric Berry is a star in the making.  Kendrick Lewis left and Abdullah and McMillian are next in line.  That is a problem.

Special Teams: Succop is an average at best PK.  The return game was great but both Demps and McCluster are gone.  The potential is there for another top notch unit with rookies De’Anthony Thomas and Albert Wilson in the fold.

Coaching: Crennel was overmatched and a liability in offensive creativity.  Andy Reid’s 1st KC edition was surprising in that he ran more than usual.  I would too of course considering the youth of the OL and lack of WR talent.  DC Bob Sutton is suspect. 

Team Keys: KC moved from a -24 turnover ratio to +18.  That resulted in 147 free points.  That edge is gone.  Watch the OL in August and September as well as the pass D%, especially playing a far tougher schedule.  Defensive sacks tapered off in ’13.  What’s the proper level now?  What will the WR rotation look like?

Did the preseason mean anything? KC allowed just 60 points in August, ’13 despite a - 6:28 time of possession figure and an 11-21 sack ratio!  This year they allowed 131 points and had a 10-16 sack ratio.  The run D remained below par, but the pass D% remains in top five discussions.  Defensive end looks like a sore spot.  KC had 35 defensive sacks in games 1-7 last year, but just 12 the rest of the way.  Injuries and a tougher schedule combined to cause that # to fall.  The schedule is tough in ’14 but KC hopes injuries are a thing of the past.  Overall there are some good pieces defensively along with some holes.  Yards per completion remained an issue for the accurate Alex Smith.  He threw for 0 TD’s and took 6 sacks in 51 pass attempts.  The run game will be top three.  The OL is an issue, with many new pieces.  Look for more check-down throws to the RB’s and for the emergence of TE Kelce, a stretch the field option.  Donnie Avery is the #2 WR option behind the inconsistent Dwayne Bowe.  This team failed to add any WR talent and that is why I highlighted UFA Albert Wilson who will be their return specialist and maybe even their #3 WR!  PK Succop was average in ’13 and cut in August.  The new PK, Cairo Santos has plenty of promise.

Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: Last year KC had a 4th place schedule which included games vs. the NFC East.  This year they have a 2nd place schedule and games vs. the NFC West!  Games 2-6 are particularly tough.  It starts with road trips to Denver and Miami.  Next is New England.  That game is on Monday Night, at home.  That leaves them a short week before traveling out west to play San Fran.  The SF game will be an emotional one with disposed QB Alex Smith returning to play his former team, led by Colin Kaepernick, the man who took his job.   KC gets a much needed bye after that, before playing San Diego.  San Diego and KC usually play some very closely contested games.  The Chiefs lost twice to the Chargers last year, both times at the very end of the game.  KC hopes to be no worse than 2-4 at this point with their next trio of games being at home to the Rams and Jets, followed by a trip to Buffalo.  I will be checking the point D and sacks allowed all season long for clues as to KC’s readiness in these two key areas.  Can KC trip up Seattle at home 11/16?  If so, it will make the short week road trip to Oakland much more pleasant.  Four of their last six games are in the Division so KC will have a chance to make a late playoff push.  The other two games are tough road affairs at Arizona and at Pittsburgh. 

Bottom Line: KC deserves to be considered a playoff contender but to actually make the playoffs much of the following will have to happen: In no particular order the OL must outperform expectations, RB Charles must stay healthy and defensive sacks must trend back up.  I like the way this team defends the pass so if these watch areas deliver I can easily see them back in the playoffs.  Unfortunately, as careful as Alex Smith is, they are very unlikely to repeat a +18 turnover ratio.  Even at +8, that’s 35 points lost and they face a schedule that ramps up in difficulty.  Because of this I see 2-4 early, 5-5 in the middle and about 8-8 at the end.  KC will need to go 3-1 or maybe more vs. SD and Oakland to make the playoffs based on tiebreakers. 

Key Games: 9/21 at Miami and the two games vs. SD.  The Miami game comes right after a Denver road game so it won’t be easy but this tossup game needs to be a win as otherwise KC could go as low as 1-4 heading to a road game at SD.  With the AFC North possibly taking at least two playoff bids games vs. SD are critical for that remaining playoff spot. 

Handicapping Tip: KC is 12-27 against the spread vs. the AFC East.  One good combination situation based on that is at Buffalo.  Watch to see if KC is a road favorite off a home win vs. the Jets.  That situation is 21-36 against the number. 

2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 26.5

Oakland Raiders:              

2013 RECORD: 4-12  
2012 RECORD: 4-12   
2011 RECORD: 8-8   
2010 RECORD: 8-8   

Team Overivew: Poor drafting and poor coaching at the top levels left the team void of talent and decision-making but it wasn’t until ’12 that the pass D% finally crumbled.  In that ’12 season the warning signs were real.  They started 1-4, with four defensive sacks and an over 70 pass D%.  Carson Palmer had a decent year but it wasn’t enough.  Now fast forward to ’13.  Team turnover was at an all-time high.  The rebuilt defense allowed 453 points (29th) and the pass D% was even worse, at 68%.  QB play regressed with a variety of players trying to impress the coaching staff.  As Oakland enters the ’14 draft season there is plenty of uncertainty.  Is there any WR on the roster that scares opposing defenses?  Are they building a defense or just randomly changing parts?  Finally, is this coaching staff (left intact) in over its head?  Just when will things start to improve?

Key Stats: The Raiders had other poor numbers besides those listed above.  They had a -11 interception ratio thanks to just nine defensive interceptions.  They allowed 33 pass TD’s.  The OL allowed 44 sacks.  Their historically fine PK was only 70% in ’13.  The three notable plus stats were an improved run D (3.9-108), their usual run +’s at 4.6-125 despite McFadden hurt again as per usual and a rare plus in their kick return defense.  Sacks were a bit below average but did rise from 25 to 38.  Spread-wise, one might be surprised to know that they are 19-7 as a road dog off back-to-back losses.  Of course they are also 10-25 anywhere off back-to-back wins, a situation that did not arise in ‘13.  They are 5-22 in their last home game.  There are other negative spread histories such as December spread numbers (0-4 in ’13) and Divisional favorite status (no situations in ’13).

Free Agency and Staff Notes: Oakland went from an astounding $49 million in dead money in ’13 to a league high $65 million (give or take a few dollars) in ’14.  The ($65 million) question was would they spend it wisely?  Letting LT Veldheer and DE Houston go was a poor start.  Oakland rebounded in both areas to some extent by signing OT Penn, OT Howard and interior OL Boothe for the offense, and DE Tuck and LB Woodley for their front seven on defense.  James Jones should help at WR.  Maurice Jones-Drew certainly adds RB depth.  Last year’s rent a CB’s Tracy Porter and Mike Jenkins left.  Incoming DB Carolos Rogers could help fill the void.  Every year Oakland adds a QB (or two or three).  This year it’s Matt Schaub, via a trade with the Texans.  No coaching changes were made.  Is that a good thing?

2014 Draft: Oakland has dealt, signed or drafted an average of over three QB’s over the past five or so years, but “baby” Davis made quite clear his love for QB Carr.  Oakland hit their OL need at pick #81 with Jackson.  The CB’s they drafted were acceptable, but the other picks are all NR, meaning good luck having any of them being more than filler types!  In the end Oakland remains without impact at WR and failed to add a rated DL.  I feel Oakland needed to double up at WR as well as add a quality OT.  Much of the bottom of this draft class includes players with character as well as weight issues.  That’s not good.

Roster Analysis:

QB: Derek Carr won the starting job over Matt Schaub.

RB: McFadden once again tries to stay healthy.  UCF RB Murray has potential.  Jones-Drew makes the unit pretty deep.

WR: Better than the last few years, but hardly great.  James Jones and Denarius are WR 2 types, still an upgrade for this team.  Streeter, Greg Little and Criner round out the unit.

TE: The ’13 rookies are down one after Kasa’s injury.  Rivera joins very average veteran Ausberry in forming a below par unit.

OL: LT Veldheer left under acrimonious conditions.  OT Penn and OG Howard come over to start.  ’13 rookie Watson is the RT.  Three reserves are decent.  It’s an “ok” group that would have been even better had they found a way to keep Veldheer.

DL: Last year it was projected that Oakland would have nine new defensive starters!  This year the number may be as high as eight.  Where is the continuity?  Woodley (if used as a DL), Antonio Smith and Tuck are new to the DL.  I don’t like the back-ups.  This overall is an upgrade, with only DE Houston gone.

LB: The ’13 unit was all new.  Many of the same guys are here but rookie Mack may win a starting job.  Is Sio Moore healthy?

CB: The brand new CB’s are Tarell Brown and Carlos Rogers.  This may be at most a slight upgrade.  2nd year CB Hayden is still fighting injuries.  Rookie McGill is the 4th best option.

Safety: Branch played in just two games in ’13 but is penciled in as a starter alongside Woodson.  Usama Young remains the 3rd option.  Rookie Travis Carrie is more of a CB but might be needed for safety depth.

PK Janikowski had an off year in ’13 at just 21-30.  The KR defense was surprisingly stout.  Rookie Carrie could win the punt return job, an area he was good at while in college.  The KR specialist assignment is up for grabs.

Coaching: HC Dennis Allen looks like he could put people to sleep.  He could be a lame duck coach given the ’14 schedule. 

Team Keys: The keys include RB McFadden’s health, QB Schaub’s turnover ratio, the chemistry of another nearly all new defense, ILB play, the pass D% and PK Janikowski’s return to form.  Can the point D go down?

Did the preseason mean anything? This should be interesting!  Are the keys listed above that were made on 8/24 somewhat meaningless?  McFadden is important, but Jones-Drew is the feature back at 11-67 and three receptions and young RB Murray is underrated and he ran 23-94 with seven receptions.  Schaub has arm issues and was just 51% in August with 3 sacks taken on 47 pass attempts.  Rookie Carr will start the opener and outplayed Matt by going 30-45 with a 4-1 ratio and just two sacks taken.  James Jones gives the below average Raider WR unit a good extra option.  The defense allowed too many points, partly due to a -4 turnover ratio that will be a concern during the regular season.  Still, the run D was great and even at 60%, the pass D took strides to improve.  There is a decent chance that Oakland equals or exceeds last year’s 38 defensive sacks with Woodley, Tuck and rookie Mack in the mix.  I still think the secondary is below par but adding Carlos Rogers did not hurt.  Rookie CB Carrie and RB Murray (missed his rookie year due to injury) might really elevate their return game. 

Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: Based upon last year’s records the Raiders will have the NFL’s toughest schedule in ’14.  I will analyze all my opening Power #’s just before kickoff to determine if that is true.  There’s certainly a good chance Oakland will be right in the mix for the toughest schedule given that they play 10 of 16 games vs. the AFC West and NFC West, plus have only seven true home games thanks to a London affair “hosting” Miami.  Oakland visits the east coast twice early, at the Jets in week one and at the Patriots in week three.  Game four is in London, meaning Oakland will likely leave from Boston (after playing New England) and spend a week overseas.  Let’s hope Oakland gets double bonus mileage, as according to one source the Raiders will travel more miles than anyone in the NFL.  The sum total is over 36,000 miles, and according to that same source, it’s approximately 10,000 miles more than Seattle, the second most traveled team.  August went better than expected, meaning Oakland has a realistic chance to be 4-3 early facing just one playoff team from a year ago. 

Normally an Oakland-Arizona game (10/19) wouldn’t get much buzz, but in this case it matches Carson Palmer and more importantly, left tackle Jared Veldheer against their old Raider team.  The Veldheer situation was awkward to say the least.  The schedule heats up in November when they play at Seattle, host Denver, and at San Diego in consecutive weeks.  Oakland has been a poor finishing team and their December schedule isn’t much easier as they host San Fran, travel to KC, host Buffalo and end the season at Denver.  It’s going to take quite an effort for Head Coach Dennis Allen to survive ’14, especially if the Raiders can’t handle the brutal early travel schedule. 

Bottom Line: How quickly can a young and not so well coached team come together defensively with another batch of new starters?  Oakland is just 53-123 last 11 years.  With just seven home games and four trips to the east coast this won’t be easy even though the roster is showing signs of life.  I’ll give them 3-4 early on and 5-11 overall.  Perhaps the defense will be far better than expected but I still don’t like the pass D%.  Derek Carr can’t be ready out of the gate and the WR and TE units, though slightly improved still have a ways to go.  I need to see much more out of this coaching staff before getting too enthused.  The six games outside of the NFC and AFC West include games vs. five non-playoff types.  Those games, plus affairs vs. SD, KC and STL give them some hope, but again, how quickly can this all come together? 

Key Game: 9/28 in London vs. Miami.  There’s nothing too special about playing the Dolphins.  But Oakland has lost their last three games vs. Miami in their own non-playoff run, all by large margins.  With neither coaching staff having an edge it’s time for the Raiders to do more than just surprise an occasional distracted playoff type team. 

Handicapping Tip: Oakland has a whole host of negative point spread issues beginning with December performance but the #’s I’ll list here are more Divisional in nature.  Oakland is 16-25 vs. the number after playing Denver and 2-12 against the number after playing San Diego.  The 11/16 game vs. San Diego is after Denver and if Rivers has revenge it magnifies things.  Oakland plays KC after that game and its on a Thursday, another situation where they’ve had some trouble.    

2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 21 

San Diego Chargers:                       

2013 RECORD: 9-7  
2012 RECORD:  7-9   
2011 RECORD: 8-8   
2010 RECORD: 9-7   

Team Overview: One could make a case that SD could have been as high as 11-5 or as low as 6-10 in ’13.  Games were coming down to the wire, and the wins were often close, while some of the early losses were a bit unlucky.  Offensively, QB Rivers rebounded with a stellar season and RB Matthews stayed healthy.  The OL performed in a shockingly positive fashion considering the level of talent.  Defensively, the front seven had some key injuries while the secondary was weak.  To their credit the point D and run D improved over the 2nd half of the year but the pass D did not and finished near 66%.  The 1st year staff (coaching and GM) represented an upgrade over the Norv Turner and GM Smith regime.  Can they build on ‘13’s success?

Key Stats: SD and its new staff ran the ball much better at 4.0-123.  The new scheme also had an impact on sacks, with SD being sacked just 30 times as compared to 49 in ’12.  QB Rivers had an NFL 2nd worst (47) QB turnovers the previous two years and cut that figure way down in ’13.  Their 3rd down conversion rate was exceptional at over 48.5%.  They also had a +6:04 time of possession figure.  The run D lagged behind at 4.6-110 but in games 14-16 vs. all their AFC West rivals the run D was strong at 63-230.  The pass D went the wrong way at 66.4% for the season but was “better” in games 12-16 at 102-168, with five of their 11 interceptions during this time.  SD had just 35 defensive sacks.  No news is good news on special teams as SD had lately fielded the NFL’s worst special team unit.  They were a bit lucky only 23-30 field goals were converted vs. them.  Spread-wise, SD remains 24-14 as a dog off consecutive losses and was 1-1 as a favorite of 10 or more points (3-11).  The fiery Rivers improved to 20-10 with same season revenge which included a revenge win at Denver.

Free Agency and Staff Notes: Things have been fairly quiet, with few splash moves.  QB Clemons has to be better than the departed Whitehurst.  Donald Brown is a solid rotational RB, clearly necessary in case Matthews gets hurt.  David Johnson is the new #3 TE.  SD loses DT Cam Thomas.  Frank Reich replaces Ken Whisenhunt as offensive coordinator. 

2014 Draft: A year ago San Diego had to improvise when the top OL were off the board.  They ended up with OT Fluker and he played well as a rookie.  The Chargers did not have to sweat as much this time, choosing the smaller Verrett over draft dropping CB Roby in their #1 area of need.  SD traded up to get pass rusher Attaochu and then added future OL starter Watt.  The trade up for Attaochu cost them a pick but otherwise the Chargers filled some needs.  WR Reese was almost forgotten but he was an impact player at Baylor.  RB Grice would have been selected higher save for a nagging late season injury.  DT Carrethers played effectively for an amazing four different head coaches at Arkansas St.  Is this a steal?  I would not have traded up for Attaovhu, saving me valuable pick #125!  It’s just seven spots, so I take Attaochu, Ealy or Crichton at #57 and another top WR or draft dropping defensive player at #125. 

Roster Analysis:

QB: Rivers had a bounce back year in ’13. Clemons is not very good, yet an upgrade over Whitehurst.

RB: I called Matthews a 1,000 to 1,200 yard RB if he could ever stay healthy.  He ran 1255-4.4.  Woodhead and Donald Brown back him up.  The deep group could be even deeper if Grice can make the team.

WR: On its way up?  Keenan Allen had a great rookie year.  Floyd and Vincent Brown are capable #2 and #3 guys but neither can stay healthy.  Royal and Reese are slot options and can get open.  Reese is tiny, but has the speed this unit sorely lacks.

TE: Gates is still a more than acceptable target when 100%.  ’12 draftee Green has real upside.

OL: SD drafted Fluker in ‘13 but needed much more!  The unit returns intact but doesn’t scare anyone.  Rookie Watt will make a serious challenge to unseat Clary at OG.  For now his skills are more as a run blocker.

DL: The DE’s are good.  NT is fairly deep, but the top two have injuries.  My sleeper rookie NT, Ryan Carrethers may get a chance to play sooner rather than later.

LB: Ingram missed most of ’13 and his return is a plus.  Te’o hopes to improve off an average rookie season.  Butler is decent,  Jarrett Johnson is not bad.  Freeney could still help.  Rookie Attaochu was a boom or bust pick but could be another 3rd down situational sacker as a rookie.  The unit is improving. 

CB: Shereece Wright and Richard Marshall contributed in ’13 but are better used as relief CB’s.  Free agent Flowers and rookie Verrett will get long looks as starters, but the ride might not be smooth.  Can Flowers rebound off an average ’13 season in KC?

Safety: Weddle and Gilchrist combined for 192 tackles in ’13.  Taylor is the only other option and might have long term promise.

Special Teams: The D is documented bad.  At least it rose to 25th.  The kicking is acceptable.  The return game is average.

Coaching: Former Denver coordinator Mike McCoy was not bad in his debut.  Frank Reich is respected and replaces Ken Whisenhunt (new Titan’s coach) at OC.  DC Pagano remains.

Team Keys: Keep Rivers healthy.  Fix the awful pass D%.  Improve special team coverage units.  Win more one score games (4-7 in ’13, after 1-5 in ’12).  Survive four east coast road trips.

Did the preseason mean anything? Rivers was 15-18 with a 1-2 ratio and no sacks taken.  RB Matthews ran 9-41 as the goal was to keep him healthy.  He was the glue last year but San Diego added Donald Brown to the mix and with Woodhead and two promising youngsters (Oliver, Grice) the run game should not disappoint.  At some point emerging TE Green will get more reps but for now Gates remains the top TE.  WR Floyd had two catches and needs to stay healthy as otherwise this unit remains too thin.  The OL is cohesive but nothing special.  In ’13 the pass D for real games 1-8 was 189-277.  The new staff made minimal strides in the 2nd half of the season at 175-277.  This is an area of concern.  This August the # was 60%.  The run D also remained high.  Injuries have hurt along the DL so we’ll see early if my sleeper draftee Ryan Carrethers is called upon to produce a year earlier than expected.  All of the August leading tacklers are either fringe players or gone as it sure looks like the Chargers cared little about preseason.  I think year #2 for the coaching staff will bring some defensive progress, but maybe not enough to move them into any top ten categories.  A few options are being tried in the sometimes stagnate return game.

Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: The Chargers face opponents with a combined winning percentage of 56.3. The Raiders have the toughest schedule by % for the ‘14 season, facing teams with a combined winning percentage of 57.8 percent, followed by Denver (57.0 percent) and St. Louis (56.4).  San Diego opens at Arizona in a particularly interesting game and then has a short week before hosting Seattle.  Can they avoid another slow start, as game #3 in Buffalo is certainly not going to be a guaranteed win?  I do expect at least 3-1 in games hosting Jacksonville and the Jets, at Oakland and home again to KC.  Chart that pass D% carefully vs. this less than elite group of QB’s!  The game at Oakland week six will be San Diego’s 1st Divisional affair.  It is worth noting that both Oakland as well as KC will be off a bye week.  Can San Diego win at Miami in a revenge game?  For some unknown reason they have lost at least five straight there.  If they prevail and rack up wins vs. Oakland and at STL the record could reach 7-4.  In my opinion this team must be at least 6-5 heading to some very tough games down the stretch.  Their final five games are are at Baltimore (Charger revenge), home to New England on Sunday Night, home to Denver, at San Fran (Saturday) and at KC.  That closing schedule is much different than ‘13, when San Diego finished with four of their last five games at home against presumably easier opponents.   The good news is that the Chargers finished an NFL-best 5-2 against playoff-bound teams in ‘13.

Bottom Line: 9-7 or 8-8?  The team is poised to win more but there is little defensive statistical evidence to support more than 9-7 and more evidence that the record could decline if WR play stays flat and sacks for the defense cannot rise.  San Diego has four east coast road trips and Monday, Thursday and Sunday night road games!  I like how the coaching staff progressed late in ’13.  The same must happen now for San Diego to make the playoffs in ’14. 

Key Game: 11/30 at Baltimore.  I could have picked any number of games, but I like this one.  The easier part of San Diego’s schedule will be over.  Baltimore and San Diego will be in the running for a playoff spot and it could come down to who wins this game.  Baltimore converted 4th and 26 two years ago to make the playoffs and we all know what happened next.  Handicapping Tip: QB Rivers is 21-13 against the spread when he has same season revenge.   

2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 26.5