Houston Texans:             

2013 RECORD: 2-14  
2012 RECORD: 12-4   
2011 RECORD: 10-6  
2010 RECORD: 6-10   

Team Overview: Wow!  Houston was the trendy pick to reach the Super Bowl in August, but even a VERY lucky 2-0 start could not prevent a massive collapse.  Last year I posed the question, “How far could QB Schaub take them?”  We all now know the answer.  RB Foster’s injury hurt, but the turnover ratio was -22 thanks to QB issues and a defense which intercepted just seven passes.  There were plenty of close losses, many due to the inability to hold leads and/or a massive number of pick-six turnovers.  Even J.J. Watt and the pass pressure declined, from 44 down to just 32 sacks.  Gary Kubiak and Wade Phillips are gone, replaced by Bill O’Brian and DC Romeo Crennel.  There’s often a thin line between winning and losing in the NFL.  Houston does not have to do that much to become a major player in the weaker AFC. 

Key Stats: My concern with these Texans was that they entered ’13 with a double whammy.  The +12 turnover ratio worked in their disfavor, and coupled with a – point ratio means they had to get better just to repeat what they did in ’12!  The Texans dropped to a -22 turnover ratio and had inconsistencies on both sides of the ball.  Offensively, there were too many interceptions returned for TD’s, leading to a -6 defensive TD ratio.  The run O was mostly without Foster and was average.  The point O was poor at 276 (31^st).  Defensively, they were 7^th in total yards but gave up big plays, including 29 pass TD’s.  They only intercepted 7 passes.  The run D was a bit high at 4.3-122.  These are not #’s normally associated with a 2-14 team but QB play and the big plays allowed on D really hurt.  Houston led six times at the half and lost all six games.  Another problem was special teams.  The PK was just 26-35.  The kick return D was 28^th at 25.7 and the punt return D was 28^th at 12.3.  Spread-wise, Houston is 7-12 as a road favorite and 12-23 on turf.  They can’t win at Indy (0-12). 

Free Agency and Staff Notes: Houston seemed more in “purge the roster” mode in free agency until they signed average DL Jerrell Powe, decent safety Chris Clemons and rotational DB Kendrick Lewis.  RB Andre Brown could add depth.  Losses include RB Tate, TE Daniels, DL Earl Mitchell, Antonio Smith and Terrell McClain, and four LB’s including Darryl Sharpton and Joe Mays.  Once QB Fitzgerald was signed Matt Schaub was traded to Oakland.  One source has stated that in Defensive Coordinator Crennel’s long career in the NFL (19 seasons) not a single DE has had a double digit sack season.  Can that change with J.J. Watt on this team?  Head Coach O’Brien hired Mike Vrabel as the new LB coach. 

2014 Draft: DE Clowney was not the “preferred” pick, as otherwise Houston would have made its intentions known well before being on the clock.  In the end however, they get an impact player at DE, the #1 rated OG, a stout blocker and possession TE, plus in a well thought out trade up, the DT/NT that the previous regime had been willing to do without.  This statement is indisputable!  I call Bill O’Brien the “man with a plan”.  Drafting Fiedorowicz and a FB sends the clear message that this team wants to be physical on offense.  The grades did suffer on day three.  NOTE: Houston did a nice job after the draft, signing #13 TE Coyle, #19 rated LB Bullough, * rated CB Marcus Williams and #2 PK Boswell.  Coyle lacks size and strength but the “move” TE has the ability to make the roster as a situational receiver.  The two concerns I had were not addressing LB needs and how they went about selecting a QB.  Tom Savage will need to work on his reads and continue to improve his accuracy.  

Roster Analysis:

QB: Fitzgerald is streaky but throws way too many picks.  Keenum has a shot to be a decent career NFL back-up QB.  Savage is the new staff’s pet project.

RB: Foster is elite but health is the all-encompassing issue.  Andre Brown vaults to the #2 option.

WR: AJ wants to win.  If motivated, he’s still easily a top 7-10 WR.  Hopkins is a potential #1 option.  Martin, Mike Thomas and Posey add depth.

TE: Bill O’Brien wants to use multiple TE’s.  Graham is a serviceable #1 option with the rest in learning mode.

OL: LT Brown and rookie LG Su’a-Filo have the upside, while the other starters are average or maybe a bit better than that.  Two OL provide depth.

DL: I really liked the pick of NT Chris Jones last year and he delivered, but for New England!  Let’s hope they keep rookie NT Nix around a bit longer.  He currently sits behind Jerrell Powe.  Rookie Pagan adds depth behind Crick, while Watt is the superstar.

LB: Clowney is “listed” at OLB but he’s really a glorified DE pass rusher.  Can ILB Cushing stay healthy for once?  I like the overall talent but this is not a top 10 group.

CB: Joseph is the star, with Kareem Jackson pretty solid.  I’m not sold on any of the back-ups.

Safety: 2^nd year SS Swearinger is a keeper if he can reduce needless penalties.  FA’s Clemons and Lewis upgrade the position.

Special Teams: PK Bullock was just 26-35 in ’13.  The return game is fine.  The return defense needs some work.

Coaching: Bill O’Brien will be a better overall head coach than offensive minded Gary Kubiak.  Is it wise for him to jump right in and be the offensive coordinator as well?  Defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel has his flaws but also has had some success.

Team Keys: Fitzgerald has been a turnover machine but that -22 turnover ratio should still produce some free points.  The Texans desperately need RB Foster to return to ’12 levels and take the pressure off the pass game.  Every facet of special team play needs improvement and could be the difference between forgetting about ’13 and repeating ’13.  The Texans were 2-9 in one score games.  Can the new regime do a better job of protecting leads?

Did the preseason mean anything? Houston’s offense was not on the field enough in August with a -8:19 time of possession figure.  Error-prone QB Fitzpatrick was at 58% with a 1-2 ratio but with no sacks taken.  Of course sometimes it is better to take a sack rather than throw an errant pass.  The scheme may need some work as all QB’s had a poor yards-per-completion figure and the team total was awful.  No RB was scary in August so the Texans are pinning their hopes on Arian Foster who did not play a down in preseason.  The top two WR’s are set, while Posey and Martin combined to go 19-138-1 as they fight for playing time.  #1 TE Graham did not make the August stat sheet but rookie TE Fiedorowicz will see plenty of action and I like his upside.  The downside defensively was their 64.5% pass D.  The Texans had nine defensive sacks and with Watt, Clowney and a revived Mercilius could solidly improve on their 32 sack total of a year ago.  I’m not a big fan of NT Powe but he’s serviceable.  Houston hopes rookie NT Nix can play sooner rather than later.  The DB’s have had a habit of giving up big plays but that might get cut down in Crennel’s more bend but not break scheme.  CB Joseph was severely limited in preseason and needs to get healthy.  So far the special team units have played well. 

Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: What a difference a year makes.  12 months ago Houston had Super Bowl aspirations coming off a 12-4 record.  Instead, they had the 1^st pick in the ’14 draft.  But things might be looking up this season.  Gone is their 1^st place schedule and games vs. both the NFC West and AFC West.  Now they have a 4^th place schedule with games vs. the NFC West, the AFC South and 4^th place cohorts Oakland and Buffalo.  A triple minus existed last year when Houston had a – point ratio, a +12 turnover ratio and an elevated schedule.  For this year a double plus exists since they have an easier schedule and are unlikely to repeat a -22 turnover ratio, even with Fitzpatrick at the controls.  Of course it would help to snag more than seven defensive interceptions.  Games 1-5 are all against teams which missed the playoffs last year.  A not that difficult goal of 3-2 should be set by the new staff.  Games 6-9 are tougher, right before their bye week.  They host Indy on a short week, play at Pittsburgh on Monday Night, have less time to prepare for another road game (Tennessee) and conclude by hosting ’13 playoff team Philly.  Several Titan games have interesting storylines.  The week two game at Oakland “might” pit them against Matt Schaub.  The Eagles might have as many as seven ex-Titans on their roster when they visit Houston.  Ben Tate will see his former team when Cleveland hosts Houston on 11/16.  Fired head coach Gary Kubiak is now the offensive coordinator of Baltimore.  Kubiak returns as a visitor on 12/21, as does TE Owen Daniels, who reportedly was not happy being released by Houston.  There are win chances throughout the later part of the season.  The question is whether or not Houston can deliver wins given their current QB situation. 

Bottom Line: Handicapping/forecasting win totals is often a balancing act among several factors.  These factors include coaching, team talent, situational factors and historical factors.  Many of these areas fall in Houston’s favor this year.  The big issue will be the play of QB Fitzgerald as he attempts to reverse the recent trend of losing close games.  If Houston manages to get turnovers down to ZERO then 77 points are saved, enough for them to post a winning record vs. this far easier schedule.  Houston will not face any team with a bye week.  I think 7-9 or 8-8 is a logical finishing record but would have gone for broke and said much higher if they had someone like the more careful Alex Smith at QB.  Watch Houston’s offense and defense closely in September.  Houston enters’ ’14 hoping to follow in the footsteps of Indy and KC who both made the playoffs after holding the #1 pick in the draft. 

Key Games: All of September!  It would not be a surprise if Houston beat any of the 1^st four teams on their schedule.  On the other hand, they could just as easily lose all of these games.  September should be interesting.  Handicapping Tip: None to report.  

2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 23 

Indianapolis Colts:            

2013 RECORD: 11-5  
2012 RECORD: 11-5   
2011 RECORD: 2-14   
2010 RECORD: 10-6   

Team Overview: Indy had a somewhat magical ’12 season and it would not have been surprising to see a slight regression take place the very next year.  Thanks in small part to a Division that was the worst in the NFL these Colts repeated its 11-5 mark and even won a playoff game.  The future is bright for Indy thanks to QB Luck and some very nice offensive pieces around him but true top five or so status may be elusive.  The team lacked a #1 draft choice and basically had little or no chance to improve on draft day.  That left some obvious holes at RB, DL and in pass coverage.  Of course Peyton Manning thrived in Indy with a below standard defense.  Perhaps this is the blessing and the curse which has now been transferred to Andrew Luck.

Key Stats: In ’11 the Colts' pass D% reached a new level of incompetence, even by Colt standards!  Indy’s 11 year average prior to ’11 was 65%, with NO YEARS BELOW 60%.  Congratulations on hitting 71.2% in ’11!  Indy did not add anyone who impacted the D in ’12 but still trimmed the pass D to 62.4%.  They trimmed the # down again to 60.4%.  That’s 14 straight poor years, but the arrow is pointing in the right direction.  The run D has been 4.2 or worse now 15 of 16 years after allowing 4.5-125 in ’13.  Clearly the team still needs to add new talent.  The Colts had 42 sacks.  That # was considered average in ’13 but far above their 30.6 five year average.  QB Luck improved from 54% as a rookie to 60%, throwing nine fewer picks, although he had turnover issues in the playoffs.  The turnover margin changed from -12 to +13.  Can they sustain a more random +8 fumble ratio?  Typically about 10-14 teams enter the next year with a + point ratio or a – point ratio.  About 75-77% of those teams turn a + point ratio into a good year and a – point ratio into a bad year.  This year an all-time low of four teams fit this profile!  Unfortunately for Indy, they are one of the four, entering ’14 with a – point ratio.  Combined with a + double digit turnover ratio and a 1^st place schedule these Colts have some major work ahead of them in ’14!  Thanks to the magic of Andrew Luck the Colts are 16-2 in one score games over the past two seasons.  Indy was lucky to see opposing kickers hit just 23-30.  The special team D needs major work as the kick return D was 27^th (25.2) and the punt return D was 31^st (13.7).  Spread-wise, the dog remains 24-3 Indy and NE meet.  The NFL’s best road favorite is now 4-1 in that role with Andrew Luck (2-1 in ’13).    

Free Agency and Staff Notes: Offensively, Donald Brown left, but he only shared the load over his career.  WR Nicks is an upgrade over the departed Heyward-Bey.  Six transactions were made so far along the OL but I see no net gain or loss.  Arthur Jones adds DL depth and D’Qwell Jackson adds value at LB.  Starting safety Antoine Bethea is gone as well as productive LB Pat Angerer.

2014 Draft: Indy traded it’s 1^st round pick, which turned out to be the 26^th pick of this draft for RB Trent Richardson.  Why did Indy join a slew of other teams in blowing the importance of adding impact talent from this deep draft.  Translated, pick 45 in THIS draft was the equivalent of a late 1^st round pick in most drafts.  Mewhort and Moncrief can play but not much more was needed?  How can this team take a WR in the 3^rd round and completely ignore defensive needs?  Indy lost its 4^th round pick to Cleveland in a draft day trade made in ’13.  The ONLY defensive players chosen in this draft turned out to be a pair of LB’s that are not in my top 23.  Who cares about defense anyway?  CB, safety and run stopping DL needs were completely ignored.  Indy needed to trade a 2^nd round pick in ’15 to get an extra high pick in this deep draft.  Like Peyton Manning before him, Andrew Luck seems destined to play on a team that asks him to overcome severe defensive flaws.  Peyton did his best, but it led to just two Super Bowl appearances.  Will Luck’s resume be any different when all is said and done?  NOTE: Indy signed a troubled, but talented CB Purifoy (11^th rated) after the draft. 

Roster Analysis:

QB: If all goes well Indy will have two QB’s over a span of roughly 28 years!  Matt Hasselbeck remains the back-up.

RB: Trent Richardson has been awful in the NFL.  The back-ups could offer rotational value if Trent fails once again.

WR: Nicks joins Hilton and Wayne to form a nice trio.  I like Da’Rick Rogers but he’s hurt, so Moncrief assumes the #4 role.

TE: Fleener and Allen appear to have a bright future.  QB Luck likes to use his TE’s.  There’s some TE depth as well.

OL: Still a work in progress and I’m not sure the right pieces are here.  LT Castonzo is progressing, but he’ll be joined by rookie Mewhort learning a new position (OG) and a bunch of journey level guys.  I don’t like the back-up talent or depth.

DL: NT Josh Chapman seems to be improving, just as I projected.  Arthur Jones is the new RE, joining decent LE Cory Redding.  Again, years of inattention to the defense makes the back-up talent non-existent.  

LB: Angerer is a big loss but FA D’Qwell Jackson has talent.  Unless raw Kevin Sheppard progresses there is no one else I like at ILB.  Most of the OLB’s are below par.  Mathis is the superstar but he’s out games 1-4.  2^nd year OLB Werner needs to make some improvements to his game. 

CB: The unit used to be 30^th at best in the NFL but the threesome of Toler, Davis and Butler are more middle of the pack now.

Safety: Bethea is a huge loss.  Landry is solid, but he’s joined by Mike Adams and a host of not ready for the NFL reserves. 

Special Teams: Most of the unit is above par but the defense needs to be shored up.

Coaching: Chuck Pagano has the full support of his team and that’s important!  Defensive Coordinator Greg Manusky is neither great nor poor, and in reality he has to coach up a unit that has very little in the way of solid talent or depth.

Team Keys: The -12 turnover margin became +13 in ’13.  How does that continue?  I’m worried about defensive sacks with Mathis out games 1-4.  He had 19.5 sacks a year ago.  I like the starting CB’s but the front seven on defense as well as safety play leads me to believe that the defensive #’s won’t continue to “progress”. 

Did the preseason mean anything? Indy finally had a RB make some noise in August but it was not Trent Richardson (20-51, no TD’s).  Dan Herron (22-112) the ex-Ohio State RB was the guy.  Perhaps Herron or not yet fully healthy Ahmad Bradshaw can relive some of the pressure (and agony) in sticking with Richardson if he does not deliver.  TE Dwayne Allen is back and together with Coby Fleener that duo will be fine.  Reggie Wayne is back, Hakeem Nicks (8-86) is on board and Da’Rick Rogers (5-86-2) make the WR unit near elite, especially with T.Y. Hilton doing his thing.  The OL is the weak link but Luck usually bails them out.  That is amplified by his taking just one sack in 41 attempts and Chandler Harnish taking 12 sacks in 60 attempts.  Defensive #’s look good, although the point D was high.  The DL is slowly coming together.  The back seven need more starting talent.  The ’13 kick return defense was not good.  The August kick return defense was worse.  Indy was 0-4 in preseason.  9% of teams who go winless in preseason make the playoffs.  Maybe Indy can break this rule as well! 

Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: Indy has five prime time games beginning with a revenge game at Denver the first Sunday and a Monday Night game hosting Philly the very next week.  Indy last won their opening game in ’06.  With Mathis and his 19.5 sacks out the 1^st four weeks going 2-0 seems like a major reach, and avoiding an 0-2 start may be difficult.  Three teams will have a bye week before facing the Colts.  They are the NYG, New England and Jacksonville.  The Colts have their bye before New England, so both teams will have extra time as QB Luck tries for his first victory vs. the Pats.  A 4^th team, Tennessee, gets 10 days off before hosting Indy the final week of the season.  The New England game is the first of three in a row at home.  The games after New England start out much easier (Jacksonville, Washington, at Cleveland, Houston).  That helps.  Closing at Dallas and Tennessee might not be that much tougher if Indy and QB Luck are on a roll. 

Bottom Line: Just like Peyton Manning before him, Andrew Luck is that rare breed of QB that seems to be able to overcome a – point ratio.  Of course in ’13 that was balanced out by a – double digit turnover ratio. This time around Indy’s – point ratio also comes with a +13 turnover ratio, meaning it’s a double whammy.  Not helping matters is their awfully thin draft of five, of which only three players made the final 53 man roster!  Indy could be as low as 5-5 after facing New England, yet panic should not set in as they could still be favored the rest of the way.  Statistically they should finish about 8-8 or 9-7.  Realistically they could end up 11-5.  I think they start slow, but with any kind of defensive progress and any help at all from the run game 10+ wins would seem logical. 

Key Games: 10/5 hosting Baltimore.  Andrew Luck has not faced the Ravens before.  Facing this type of defense (and later a Steeler defense that he has not faced) should be interesting and might give us all a clue as to how Indy matches up with some of the more established AFC teams.  A loss here could reduce their chances to secure a 1^st round bye.  Handicapping Tip: The Colts are one of the better NFL teams as a road favorite, going 56-35 vs. the spread.  As a road dog, they’ve played 17 of the last 21 games OVER the point total.   

2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 28 (using 27 or 27.5 tentatively without LB Mathis) 

Jacksonville Jaguars:        

2013 RECORD: 4-12  
2012 RECORD: 2-14   
2011 RECORD: 5-11   
2010 RECORD: 8-8   

Team Overview: Armed with the worst roster in the NFL, Jacksonville began the Gus Bradley era by going 0-8.  During that stretch the point ratio was 10.75-33, the sack ratio was 11-28, turnovers were at -8, the run O was 3.0-66.5, the run D 4.8-162 and the pass D% was just under 66%, with three defensive interceptions.  The Jags four wins in the 2^nd half of the season came vs. Tennessee (twice), Cleveland and Houston.  Maybe that in itself is not impressive, but here are the 2^nd half numbers.  The point ratio was 20-23, the sack ratio 20-22, turnovers were +1, the run O was 90-3.6, the run D 103-3.55 and the pass D% was just over 63%, with eight interceptions.  Mistakes were made on draft day ’13 but previous drafts were borderline awful.  Playing in the AFC South could be a positive moving forward as long as on–field progress continues to be made. 

Key Stats:  The Jags are the 2^nd of four teams with a – point ratio entering ’14.  NO team will enter ’14 with a + point ratio, and that has never happened!  The reason the Jags are statistically not as good as last year’s 4-12 record is that they scored just 247 points (last) while allowing 449 points (28^th).  Offensively, Jacksonville was 31^st running the ball (3.3-79). They were 31^st in sacks allowed (50).  In this increasingly offensive league the Jags have scored over 20 points just four times in the past two seasons!  They had a -82 1^st down figure.  They were successful a mere 31% on 3^rd downs.  They were a random +4 in fumble ratio but -10 in their interception ratio.  Defensively, they “improved” to 31 sacks but that was tied last in the NFL.  The Jags have sacked opposing QB’s just 151 times the past six seasons!   Jacksonville was tied 27^th in total yards allowed on D and allowed 29 pass TD’s.  The six year pass D average improved to 65% (64.2% in ’13).  As expected, time of possession was similar to ’12 at -5:15.  Want some good news?  The kick return and punt return D was 3^rd and 5^th respectively.  Spread-wise, the Jags were once again just 6-10 against the spread but this time saw their record as a dog of over 7 points drop badly.  They are 24-36 on the road off a win and remain 14-30 as a favorite of 7 or more after having no plays in this category from ‘11 through ‘13.

Free Agency and Staff Notes: Bad teams can’t get by with drafts of five players.  The Jags did that for years under the former GM and paid the price.  This free agency has seen them add several players who can help with the transition, including RB Gerhart, OG Beadles, DL Hood, Bryant and Clemons, LB Dekoda Watson and safety Sherrod Martin.  DL benefited the most.  Maybe one could argue that RB Maurice Jones-Drew is a loss, but he’s replaceable, as are most NFL RB’s in this passing league.  Former 1^st round QB Gabbert was traded.

2014 Draft: A few people asked me why the Jags did not trade down, getting Bortles later on.  For Jacksonville, trading up has always been easy, but trading down has been non-existent.  They stayed at 3 and took their QB, but traded up to 61 to get the 2^nd of the top five WR’s.  If all goes well Bortles, Lee and Robinson will be able to grow and flourish together.  Did they wait too long to address CB needs?  Did they draft the wrong OL?  This draft bogged down after the 2^nd round.  NOTE: The Jags might have been more productive after the draft.  On offense they added * RB Cobb, rated WR’s Hurns and Wimberly, my #9 TE Jensen and * rated TE Jordan.  The defense added * rated CB Reynolds and my 13^th ranked safety in LSU’s Loston.  Hurns can stick as a #4 option with the ability to adjust to errant throws.  Wimberly has ZERO speed but was productive and wins jump balls.  Jensen has the longest TE arms and could fit as a pass catching TE.  Reynolds was rated as a 4^th-5^th round pick by many.  He lacks recovery speed but made plays at OSU and has the instincts.  Loston is a box safety only who tackles well and can cover in short spaces.  I would have selected two higher rated OL prospects without the trade up for Linder. 

Roster Analysis:

QB: Henne is acceptable for the present, while the mature Bortles could be the right choice for the future.

RB: I don’t think Gerhart is a feature RB.  Can Storm Johnson contribute?  Should the Jags add someone before game #1?

WR: Blackmon and Shorts are talented but Blackmon has an IQ of 12!  Ace Sanders fills the slot role.  Lee and Robinson represent the future.

TE: Lewis has been average for years.  This area is near the bottom of the NFL.

OL: Joeckel got his feet wet as a rookie and hopes to progress now.  I like OG Beadles but the rest of the OL is raw.  Substandard RT Pasztor will be out at least a month.  Who replaces him?  Rookie OG Linder may start.  They need help!

DL: Gus Bradley found DL help from Seattle with run defender Bryant and DE Clemons.  One more piece needs to be added.

LB: Posluszny is good but for most teams Hayes and FA Watson might be back-ups and not starters.  The “Smith brothers” drafted in the 5^th round add much needed depth.

CB: The group is not even close to being viable but is beginning to solidify with Ball and 2^nd year player Gratz.  CB Colvin is versatile but will take a redshirt year in ’14.

Safety: Cyprien is already their best safety, and maybe their best DB!  Josh Evans is the other starter, maybe by default!

Special Teams: Basically solid, with the return defense producing top five #’s a year ago.

Coaching: Fiery Gus Bradley could have major upside if given time (and better talent).  Both coordinators need to be watched.

Team Keys: The OL could be scary bad.  Watch them closely.  Who emerges at RB?  With Blackmon’s status up in the air at press time, how fast will the rookie WR’s contribute?  Who sacks opposing QB’s?  Is this area going to be surprisingly better based on the 20 defensive sacks they produced in the 2^nd half of ’13?  The Jags need to do better than to win far less than half of their home games and 5 of their last 18 Divisional games.  Can the point O improve behind this OL?

Did the preseason mean anything?  Jacksonville has the right head coach in place but there are numerous holes on both sides of the ball as it relates to player talent.  Chad Henne is a decent QB but won’t make many top 20 lists.  He is accurate but will take some sacks.  He is unproven in crunch time.  Rookie Bortles was great in August but the learning curve is longer and more sacks would be taken with him in the lineup.  I agree with the decision to keep him on the bench.  I’m not a big fan of RB Gerhart.  He carried the load in college but I don’t see him being as effective in the NFL.  His August stat line was 16-51.  Only rookie RB Storm Johnson (20-41) is available as a traditional option otherwise, so I suggest they pick someone else up.  I like the rookie WR’s but Robinson is not healthy enough to start the season.  Marquise Lee will have some good games but I expect inconsistent play from him and maybe most of the WR’s.  TE Lewis is average but at least he was more productive than usual this August.  I do expect the OL to yield sacks above the NFL average.  The run D of 4.3-132 from a year ago is going to come down thanks to the new Seattle DL.  Evidence of that came this August with a 3.7 per carry stop figure.  My assessment of the back seven is that LB Posluszny is instinctive vs. the run, Geno Hayes is serviceable and SS Cyprien is going to be really good.  The other four spots are a work in progress.  Only 2^nd year CB Gratz showed well in preseason.  The forever leaky pass D% figures to stay high (over 67% in August).  The return game is in good hands but punt returner Sanders has been suspended for games 1-4.  PK Scobee is fighting a quad injury and that needs to be monitored. 

Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: Jacksonville is the poster child for why the NFL is ultimately the fairest sport in America!  Unlike other sports there is a hard salary cap.  The worst teams draft early in EVERY round.  The worst teams get schedule breaks outside of their own Division.  In the NFC South it became common for last place teams to jump to 1^st thanks to drafting and scheduling.  STL in two short years has rebuilt its roster.  The Jags are one of a few lower level teams that manage to stay near the bottom.  Yes, the draft matters!  I believe this is now the 8^th straight year Jags drafted in top 10, easily a record.  Years of completely misusing the draft has made this roster into perhaps the worst in the NFL.  Maybe things will get better.  This draft had more quality and quantity to it.  Unfortunately, Jacksonville starts the new season by playing three road games in September, plus hosts Divisional titlist Indy.  This could trigger another slow start, but the reality is they are building more for the future than for this upcoming season.  The good news is that they have 14 Sunday games in the USA, allowing them to have consistency in game planning and perhaps sneak up on a few teams who might have short weeks or are focused on games of more “significance”.  The bad news is that the owner loves London, giving them yet another season of just seven true home games.  In addition, the Jags will not have a true home game after October 26 until the very last day of November!  If Jacksonville does survive September and a mostly homeless November the closing stretch is quite manageable.  It includes two games vs. Houston, home games vs. the NYG and Tennessee (Thursday Night) and a road game at Baltimore.  The Jaguars have lost their last seven Week 17 road games but have 10 days before playing Houston on 12/28. 

Bottom Line: 0-4, then a win hosting Pittsburgh.  Perhaps 2-1 in games at Tennessee and hosting Cleveland and Miami.  2-2 or 3-1 vs. Dallas in London, and home games vs. the NYG, Houston and Tennessee.  The overall record may remain at or under 5-11 but I finally believe they are on the right track.  The next wish list (draft, free agency) should include a feature RB, a long term solution at TE, two OL starters, one dynamic sack specialist and cover talent in their back seven.  Jag fans, please exercise patience. 

Key Game: Like last year, whatever game gives them that 1^st win.  Jacksonville will press until that 1^st win comes.  Can it come before they host Pittsburgh in October?  Handicapping Tip: None to report. 

2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 20 

Tennessee Titans:        

2013 RECORD: 7-9  
2012 RECORD: 6-10   
2011 RECORD: 9-7   
2010 RECORD: 6-10   

Team Overview: Tennessee improved by one win but it was not enough for Mike Munchak to save his job.  Ken Whisenhunt takes over a team that beat SD 20-17 in week #3, the only win they had over a playoff team.  Considered a strong teacher of QB’s, his task is to hope a healthy Jake Locker can take the next step under his tutelage.  Just as critical is fixing a pass D that has been at or near the bottom of the NFL the past few years.  I said in April that success in the ’14 draft might be the difference between making and missing the playoffs.  Check below for how that went.  The new DC is Ray Horton which is a huge plus.  Give him some talent and Tennessee could move up in a Division which is soft enough to allow for a couple of extra wins. 

Key Stats: The Titans are on a terrible roll with regard to their pass D%.  That figure stayed high in ’13 at 63.1%, but somehow they tied for 1^st by allowing just 15 passing TD’s.  They did reduce their points allowed by 90, but the average was still mediocre at just under 24 per game.  Another piece of good news was allowing opponents just 34+% for 3^rd down conversions.  There’s not much else to report other than their punt return D coming in 3^rd (6.0) and a bit high kick return D.  Perhaps Tennessee is just a dynamic QB away from moving up in the AFC?  Spread-wise, losing HC Fisher in ’11 meant that some great long term trends had to be thrown out.  All Titan spread situations remain in the monitor stage, maybe permanently? 

Free Agency and Staff Notes: Charlie Whitehurst replaces Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB.  That is not good.  Versatile Dexter McCluster and decent RT Oher were the other main offensive additions.  RB Johnson was cut, saving the team $8 million.  As expected, WR Britt left.  DE/pass rushing LB Shaun Phillips should add some juice up front.  Overachieving LB Woodward adds depth.  An already suspect secondary will miss solid CB Verner.  While Whisenhaut and Ray Horton have solid coaching resumes, the new offensive coordinator is Jason Michael.  He’s generally been only a tight ends coach.  

2014 Draft: Most analysts (myself included) felt CB was the way to go at 11.  The Titans disagreed, taking an OT that is talented, but not necessarily needed for ’14.  RB was the logical choice at 42.  RB Sankey was 1^st at his position off the board.  He has the best all-around skill of the top RB’s but perhaps less of an upside as compared to Hyde or the troubled Hill.  DT Jones could be the nose tackle answer, while the versatile Huff will be initially asked to play CB, which he did at Wyoming prior to ’13.  Trading up for a QB was fine, and the Titans only spent picks 186/228 to get the draft dropping Mettenberger.  Can Zack grow up?  If so, the team will give him every opportunity to succeed, especially if Locker’s final chance to start does not go well.  The quote around the NFL was that: “The Titans have struggled to identify talent throughout (GM) Webster’s tenure”.  For me it seemed like a no-brainer that they could have found a trading partner to either move up to get Donald (Chicago, Dallas) or to get Lewan (Miami).  I suspect that would have given Tennessee two extra picks and they still could have had LB Mosley or a top tier CB early, using the extra picks to double up at LB and maybe take Nix before Houston did at 83.  Sankey is a great fit in a clear need area.  Tennessee misfired at CB however as well as at LB.  I think much more could have been accomplished on draft day.

Roster Analysis:

QB: This has to be Locker’s last chance.  Perhaps Whisenhunt can make him better.  No one else is ready in ’14 if he gets hurt.

RB: Chris Johnson is gone.  Bishop Sankey, Shonn Greene and change of pace RB/WR Dexter McCluster are on board.

WR: Nate Washington is the veteran but he’s clearly a #2 and not a #1.  Hunter has #1 potential but he’s still in learning mode.  Kendall Wright contributes.  The rest of the unit are #4 options at best.

TE: Delanie Walker had a career year in ’13.  I’m not 100% sure that can continue.  Stevens and Thompson add decent depth.

OL: Roos, Levitre and 2^nd year OC Schwenke are solid if not all-pro types.  Warmack and Oher are average, but an upgrade over what the right side looked like in ’13.  Rookie Lewan will challenge right away for playing time.

DL: DC Horton likes versatile DL in his 3-4 alignment.  What he has is an odd collection of unknowns or role players.  The starters are Ropati Pitoitua, Sammie Lee Hill and Jurrell Casey.  I’ve been doing this for more years than many analysts have been alive and I don’t know who Pitoitua is (44-4 in ’13).  There’s depth, mostly of the rotational kind.

LB: Talented, but not without flaws.  Woodward will start at one of the ILB spots. 

CB: This was a bottom five unit in ’12 and despite allowing just 15 TD passes, still very vulnerable in ’13.  They lose their #1 CB in Verner so either Wreh-Wilson or Sensabaugh must step up their game to start alongside McCourty.  Huff is the only other guy.

Safety: Griffin is good, and Pollard is a hard hitter.  The talent level drops quickly after that.

Special Teams: Rob Bironas returned to form in ’13 but was cut, so Travis Coons will try to win the job.  Tennessee was very interested in him pre-draft as I noted in my April reports.  The punter is average.  Marc Mariani was once an elite return guy and in ’13 he began to rebound into form.  UFA all-purpose player Anthony Andrews may contribute here if he stops fumbling.

Coaching: Ken Whisenhunt took Arizona to a Super Bowl and helped San Diego’s offense rebound in ’13.  OC Jason Michael was the San Diego TE coach in ’13.  DC Ray Horton is top five and was with Whisenhaut when he was at Arizona.

Team Keys:

Locker’s pass O%.  The substandard pass D%.  The play of WR Hunter, as a true #1 target needs to emerge.  Winning in the AFC South.  The Titans are just 8-16 the past four years (3-13-2 vs. the spread the past three years) vs. AFC South opponents.

Did the preseason mean anything?  Tennessee hopes the August Jake Locker is the same guy they will see in September and beyond.  Jake was 21-30 for 268 yards with a 2-0 ratio and 3 sacks taken.  Turnovers were -8, but not with Jake involved.  Yes, sacks taken were a bit high for the entire team but the Titans could live with this if the other #’s hold true.  Rookie RB Sankey was 42-155-1 (4 receptions) and Shonn Green was 19-81-1.  These are acceptable #’s.  The WR group is hardly overwhelming but I liked ’13 rookie Justin Hunter a year ago and he was 10-217-2 in preseason now and may be ready to assume a #1 role for this team.  Right now journeymen WR Nate Washington and decent WR Kendall Wright are ahead of him on the depth chart.  Issues remain defensively.  Tennessee never fully replaced CB Finnegan when he left and now has to replace CB Alterraun Verner.  The multiple run of over 60% pass defenses is likely to continue as the August stat line was poor at 82-126, with zero interceptions!  Despite writing draft reports for 36 years and NFL previews for well over two decades I can’t begin to tell you who Ropati Pitoitua is.  The DE starts for Tennessee which I can’t believe is a good sign.  The strength and depth on defense is at LB.  I expect sacks to be average at best in ’14.  Maybe new DC Ray Horton can turn things around.  I think he is a top five talent.  Age won over youth in the return game, which may not necessarily be a good thing.  Most of the special team units are a bit below average or worse.  Tennessee just signed ex-KC PK Ryan Succop.

Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: The Ken Whisenhaut era begins with a game at KC, the first of three tough September road games.  The only home game is Dallas.  October games are easier, with home games against QB challenged Cleveland, Jacksonville and Houston, plus a road game at Washington.  1-3 could turn into 4-4 if Jake Locker can deliver on offense and the pass D% holds its own vs. the lower caliber of QB’s they will be facing.  Tennessee does get to host a Monday Night game and it comes on 11/17 vs. Pittsburgh, a team that they have actually faced each of the past seven years!  Tennessee has won the last two outings.  The Titans will have one less day to prepare for a road game at Philly after that, an opponent they are not familiar with.  Tennessee has a favorable December schedule, with three home games and 10 days between a week 16 game at Jacksonville and their closing game hosting Indy.  The Jacksonville game might be sneaky tough as it closely follows a game vs. former RB Chris Johnson and the NYJ.  If Tennessee can get to December at 6-6 they might be able to make a playoff push.  If so, the closing game vs. Indy could be very meaningful.  The Colts have dominated the Titans of late, winning the last five contests, and 10 of the last 11. 

Bottom Line: 7-9?  I can’t go higher without proof that the pass D% can go down, but the talent just doesn’t seem there to make such a prediction.  The schedule is not that rough but the start could be a bit rough. 

Key Games: 10/26 and 11/30, both vs. Houston.  A year ago the entire AFC South was looking up to Houston.  Now they can’t overlook the Texans as the team has plenty of defensive talent, and some pretty good WR’s.  One of these two teams could challenge for a playoff spot if they sweep the series.  Handicapping Tip: The dog is 9-0 against the spread in games involving Washington, and 5-0 straight up the last five games. 

2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 24