RealGM Analysis
Buffalo Bills:
2013 RECORD: 6-10
2012 RECORD: 6-10
2011 RECORD: 6-10
2010 RECORD: 4-12
Team Overview: Buffalo has the longest NFL playoff draught. The Bills come off their 3rd consecutive record of 6-10. Does this mean the franchise is just spinning its wheels? While it remains unclear just how good a coach Doug Marrone can be, the feeling is that Buffalo has a chance to make some noise in ’14 and beyond. Remember, they were as raw as possible at QB and haven’t had time to fix years of issues in stopping the run. Team talent is hardly elite, but not all that different from lower level playoff types. Much of the ’13 plus areas were defensive in nature. What’s missing was an attention grabbing draft haul. Buffalo’s ’14 draft netted them WR Sammy Watkins, but they paid a steep price to get him. He will need to produce right away.
Key Stats: In the ’13 report I said “It was not all bad”. The same could certainly be said now. Buffalo was #1 in pass D at 55.3%. They were #2 in defensive sacks with an amazing 57! They were #2 in yards rushing at 144. They intercepted 23 passes. The issues tended to revolve around a rookie QB, an OL that was weaker in talent beginning ’13 and a run D that still has issues. The OL allowed 44 sacks, but part of the problem was the youth at QB. Buffalo has finished 22nd or worse in offensive points per game the past nine years. Defensively, the Bills had ranked 32nd, 28th and 31st vs. the run the previous three seasons. They “improved” to 23rd allowing 4.4-129. Time of possession was at -3:16. Buffalo entered ‘13 with a – point ratio and that usually means they would not improve their overall (over 75% accuracy). Spread-wise, Buffalo is a horrid 6-35 after playing Miami. They dropped to 14-6 ATS after a bye.
Free Agency and Staff Notes: Buffalo was been active in free agency, but many of their additions are more role players (RB’s Allen and Dixon, WR Barden, LB Nathan Williams, CB’s Burton and Graham) as opposed to actual starters. OG Chris Williams will start, and LB’s Spikes and Rivers will either start or be expected to contribute in various packages. WR Mike Williams came in a pre-draft trade. Losing safety Byrd was expected, but unfortunate. Trading #1 WR Stevie Williams will stunt ’14 growth. Jim Schwartz is the new Defensive Coordinator. Perhaps that will be a plus for the run defense but how will the move impact the overall defense? Buffalo finished 2nd in the NFL in sacks and interceptions in ’13.
2014 Draft: Buffalo wanted Sammy Watkins in the worst way. They got him, but not only did they vastly overpay for him, they also lost their #1 WR in a needless trade. WR’s usually struggle as rookies, so please do not expect a spike in the pass game for ’14. Unfortunately, Buffalo won’t have a 1st round pick in ’15 and therefore any real growth as a team must wait. The good news is Buffalo addressed RT solidly in the 2nd round and got a productive LB in the 3rd round. Buffalo traded pick their 6th round pick (194) to obtain troubled Tampa WR Mike Williams. As an aside, he became the 7th player with the last name Williams on the Buffalo roster. They traded for Eagles RB Bryce Brown, meaning in the end they got WR Watkins and Brown, giving up WR Stevie Johnson and a 1st in ’15. It’s clear the Bills wanted to fortify their OL. By one estimate the three they took weigh a total of 996 pounds! What I don’t see is anyone who can help stop the run or replace free safety Jarius Byrd.
Roster Analysis and Staff Notes:
QB: Manual is still in learning mode but he has solid potential. Expect some ups and downs in ’14.
RB: Very deep with Spiller, Jackson, Dixon, Allen and fumble prone, but effective Bryce Brown.
WR: A solid threesome with Williams, Woods and Watkins, but only Woods was here a year ago so chemistry will be an issue.
TE: Chandler, Moeaki and Lee Smith all have their moments but thus far they have not been difference-makers.
OL: As stated last year, Gailey’s scheme helped the OL become #1 in sacks allowed, but the new staff might see regression, especially with Levitre gone. The trio of rookies chosen in the draft represents a step in the right direction but for ’14 LG (Chris Williams) and RT (undecided) are areas that need further scrutiny.
DL: Why this unit struggles so much vs. the run is a real question. Dareus may face NFL suspension but this unit has talent, especially in providing defensive pressure.
LB: The all new LB group in ’13 was solid in pass pressure but no help vs. the run. It’s a deep group but Kiko Alonso was great as a rookie and will be missed (IR) in ’14.
CB: The new staff produced the NFL’s #1 pass D at 55+%. McKelvin is battling injuries but Gillmore and Graham are solid.
Safety: Byrd will be missed. The top two can play, but there is a drop in talent after that.
Special Teams: Carpenter can run hot and cold. There are several options for the return game.
Coaching: Doug Marrone seems like an overall upgrade over previous head coach Gailey but the offense must find a rhythm. The DC in ’13 was Mike Pettine and he made a difference. He’s gone (Cleveland HC), replaced by former Lion HC Jim Schwartz. I think that could result in a bit of defensive regression.
Team Keys: Who replaces Byrd at safety? What effect will Jim Schwartz have on the defense? What are reasonable expectations for EJ Manuel, who played in just 10 games in ’13? Is the OL solid enough to improve in ’14?
Did the preseason mean anything? The Bills did some good things and bad things this past August. The offense had trouble scoring despite Manuel’s extensive work (82 attempts, 61% completions). He took 7 of the team’s 18 sacks allowed (Buffalo played an extra game). Spiller and Jackson should be fine even though they ran under 3.4 per carry. WR Woods is ready as is Mike Williams, but Sammy Watkins is banged up and probably will be featured more in the return game and on bubble screens anyway. The right side of the OL will be the issue in ’14. The defense made great strides vs. the run, an area that has long been awful. Adding LB Rivers helps, but overall I don’t know if massive improvement is sustainable. How much will the team miss safety Byrd? Two punters shared duties in August but the job went instead to a complete unknown. Turnovers were +2 during regular season ’13. It was -5 this past August. Buffalo will not intercept another 23 passes.
Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: Typical of teams who routinely miss the playoffs, Buffalo will play 15 Sunday games, plus the mandatory Thursday affair. The Bills haven't played a "Monday Night Football" game since 2009 and haven't played on Sunday night since 2007. Buffalo will not play in Toronto this year. Buffalo opens the season at Chicago but then is home to host Miami and San Diego. Manuel certainly got enough work in this preseason and even without Watkins, having Mike Williams and year two WR Woods gives the offense hope. Any improvement from the run D could mean a 2-1 start. Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz returns to Detroit on 10/5 in what should be an interesting game. That could cause a focus problem when Tom Brady and New England visit Buffalo the next week. No game can be taken lightly, and playing Minnesota between Divisional games vs. New England and the NYJ could be a problem. Buffalo’s ceiling could be 4-4 heading to their bye week, but games 9-12 are not that difficult. They have revenge hosting KC, travel to Miami, host the Jets and host Cleveland. December is rough. Three of their final four games are the road, with the lone home game vs. tough Green Bay. They’ll likely face Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady during this stretch.
Bottom Line: QB Manuel needs to win early on. He was not healthy a year ago but needs his OL to protect better on passing downs. I like the work the defense did in August but they are on their 3rd DC in as many years and are thin at LB and weaker at safety. I think the turnover ratio will not improve. I think 3-5 is a more logical early season record, meaning even if they do get to 6-6, that December schedule looks like a 1-3 final result at the very best. People shouldn’t automatically give up on Manuel after less than one full season. Instead, the team needs to make strides in their point D and in pass protection.
Key Game: 9/14 vs. Miami. The Bills and Thad Lewis went 2-0 vs. the Dolphins in ’13 and are 18 of 27 hosting Miami, and 4 of 5 lately. Lose this one and the uphill battle starts early.
Handicapping Tip: Buffalo is 8 of 43 against the spread after playing Miami but playing a Divisional rival (Jets) might help them in some crazy way. They are 14-6 after a bye, though this coach lost in ’13. The game after their bye week is vs. KC, a team they lost to 23-13 at home in ’13.
2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 22.5
Miami Dolphins:
2013 RECORD: 8-8
2012 RECORD: 7-9
2011 RECORD: 6-10
2010 RECORD: 7-9
Team Overview: What happened! Miami has fielded a better than average defense for the past several years but wasn’t satisfied, allowing GM Jeff (“If our board was right, then we killed it.”) Ireland to trade away two starting LB’s and a starting CB after ’12 ended. The defense performed well enough that any offensive improvement might have been good enough for these Dolphins to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, the weak link offensively was OL, my #1 need area prior to the ’13 draft! Miami was already sack prone (24 in games 1-5) before all their internal struggles began. The end result was 59 sacks allowed and a home loss to the NYJ on closing day that keep them out of the 6th and final playoff spot. We’re entering year #3 of the Joe Philbin era and both his coaching ability as well as his general oversight ability is rightfully coming into question. Miami is a mere 35-45 the past five years despite consistently strong defensive performances. Perhaps they move up thanks to being housed in the AFC East but there has to be at least some worry that the defense will regress before the offense begins to jell.
Key Stats: Miami scored fewer than 20 points per game as Tannehill had little time to set up in the pocket and he only jelled with FA WR Wallace after week #7. They were 27th in total offense. The run O was 4.1 per carry but for just 90 yards per game. The pass D% has long been strong with at least seven straight positive years but is inching up and could finally cross 60% if the team isn’t careful. For now these Dolphins allowed just 17 TD passes. Spread-wise, Miami is 59-91 as a home favorite. This includes 1-3 both straight up and against the spread in ’13. They now stand at 9 for their last 41 against the spread in this role. They do tend to bounce back off a loss when a dog of over 7 points (15-4, but 0-0 in ‘13). They have a pair of negative trends off back-to-back wins. They fell to 11 of 47 as a favorite to the NYJ as a result of their final game playoff-ending loss. They are 38-21 on road grass and fell to 11-25 on MNF, including 3-15 on the road (0-2 in ‘13).
Free Agency and Staff Notes: It’s not as large a spending spree like in ’13 but Miami’s main additions should help. They’ve added RB Moreno, LT Albert, DT Mitchell, CB Finnegan and safety Delmas. They lose OL Jerry and OT Martin, but of course losing Martin was expected. More notable losses include DT Solari and safety Clemons. Bill Lazor replaces Mike Sherman at Offensive Coordinator. Dennis Hickey comes over from Tampa Bay to be the new GM.
2014 Draft: Miami was in a tough spot at 19, missing out on the top four OL. Many are down on OT James but there wasn’t much of a difference in the rest of the available OL except for OG Su’a-filo and at least they hit this area twice early on thanks to a deft trade up. WR Landry is a solid fit. Most needs other than LB were addressed. Miami did not draft any unrated players. I would have selected DL Jeffcoat (Texas) over Fede. Did they wait too long to address the position of LB?
Roster Analysis:
QB: Tannehill continues to progress but as yet he us far from a difference-maker. Matt Moore is one of the better NFL back-ups.
RB: Miller has been ascending, but also slowly. Moreno adds depth and talent. The unit can go as many as four deep.
WR: Mike Wallace should put up better #’s in year #2. Is Hartline really a #2 option? Matthews could challenge him for the spot while rookies Landry and Hazel will provide solid young depth.
TE: Dustin Keller was supposed to be an upgrade but went on IR in ’13, and is currently not listed on the depth chart. Clay, Sims and Lynch are the current TE’s, and as a group the unit is not all that bad.
OL: I called this unit the weak link in August, ’13. It was even worse. LT is in far better shape with former KC Branden Albert on board. Decent OC Pouncey will miss half the season however, and though both are promising, rookie OG Billy Turner and rookie OT Ja’Wuan James figure to take their lumps in ’14.
DL: Not much change here for this above average unit in both talent as well as in depth.
LB: Ellerbe and Wheeler are now in their 2nd seasons as Dolphins. Misi is the other starter. I think they could use some better back-ups and youth but Miami disagreed on both fronts. They waited until pick #171 of the draft to add a LB.
CB: We’re now on 10 years of <60% pass D’s. They lost a pair of CB’s but the top three (Grimes, Finnegan, Taylor) have decent talent. Will Davis and rookie Walt Aikens represent the best of the next group.
Safety: Delmas replaces Clemons opposite Reshad Jones. Only Don Jones backs them up.
Special Teams: 2nd year PK Sturgis was just 26-34 as a rookie. Most of the rest of the unit is average.
Coaching: Joe Philbin might not last all of ’14, especially if the team starts slow. The new offensive coordinator is Bill Lazor. The offense certainly needed a change after finishing 27th at 313 yards per game.
Team Keys: Keeping that great pass D% under the magic 60%. OL performance. Joe Philbin!
Did the preseason mean anything? Miami’s pass D continues to be elite no matter what is happening with the rest of the team. The same is true for the run D and sacks were at 13. The offense did not click in August but after allowing 19 sacks last preseason and almost 60 in ’13, protection stiffened to a mere 4 sacks allowed! Tannehill may not be a 25 TD guy but he took just 1 of those sacks in 41 pass attempts (26-41). There are options behind new RB Moreno but he is the clear lead back. Wallace and Hartline remain the top WR’s but I look for underrated WR Rishard Matthews and perhaps rookie WR Landry to make an impact. Landry has tremendous hands and may assume the return role with the surprising cut of Marcus Thigpen. Miami did not score much in August but overall the team played decently and is generally ready to go this September.
Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: Miami has surprisingly not been to the playoffs for what seems like a long time. Miami’s defense has consistently been top five, with sub 60% pass defenses and 249 sacks by their defense the past six years. So what’s the problem? Miami is just 4-8 against Division opponents the past two seasons. They open hosting New England and at Buffalo and must understand that playoff tiebreakers could be at stake right away. Miami has not fared well after facing Buffalo but that has to change when hosting KC if these Dolphins are to end a six year playoff drought. In this game LT Albert will face his old team. Game #4 is in London vs. Oakland, so technically Miami gets an edge with only seven true road games. Can they start the season 3-1? A safer prediction might be 3-3 after playing at Chicago. Miami has a pair of back-to-back road games and in each case they must be wary of a letdown in the 2nd affair. Can they get up for Jacksonville after traveling to Chicago? Can they rebound from a trip to Denver and play on the road on MNF against the Jets the next week? If things don’t go well Miami will be long removed from playoff contention by the time ESPN airs this game on 12/1. Miami will have a short week after facing the Jets, which may not bode well for a team that doesn’t always win at home when they are supposed to. In a side note, Miami does not play back-to-back home games until the final two games of the season. Last year Miami missed the playoffs when they lost on closing day to the Jets, Miami hosts the Jets to end ’14. Games between these teams are always interesting.
Bottom Line: It’s time for Coach Joe Philbin to up his game! There’s no reason for a veteran team such as Miami to start slow, and no reason why wins can’t be had vs. the “softer” AFC East and AFC in general. Miami improved at RB, WR and along the OL and Tannehill is in his 3rd year. Realistically they should be in the playoff hunt. Instead they look to be about 8-8. They have the stat lines to exceed 8-8. Will coaching hold them back?
Key Game: I’m throwing a curve and calling 10/12 vs. GB the key game. The Packers love to play on grass and are obviously talented, but Miami has a good defense. Can Philbin steal a win vs. his old team? If so, the confidence boost will be huge and could lead to separation from Buffalo and the Jets within the Division.
Handicapping Tip: Miami is a really poor home favorite (11-36), but is 26-9 vs. the spread as a dog off a loss and 33-16 vs. the spread as a non-Divisional road dog. Could Joe Philbin be fired if Miami loses early? I think so, and at 7-1 odds and an early bye week it could happen if Oakland beats them in London 9/28.
2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 23.5
New England Patriots:
2013 RECORD: 12-4
2012 RECORD: 12-4
2011 RECORD: 13-3
2010 RECORD: 14-2
TEAM OVERVIEW: New England has not won a Super Bowl since ‘04. Except for the year Brady was hurt (and even that year was good) they’ve usually been the team to beat in the playoffs. Twice they lost to the NYG in the Super Bowl. Once they blew a big lead to Indy. The past two years a key injury to their only cover CB, Talib cost them a chance to make the final game. I am genuinely sorry that Talib was lost in these games, but have noted for years how the Pats needed to draft better cover talent. In fact, I have many a time documented how atrocious draft moves have prevented this team from winning at least three more Super Bowls! Stockpiling draft picks ruined their chance to add impact. Bonehead sleeper picks have prevented them from adding that one player who could have made a difference in many a close playoff/Super Bowl loss. Last year was their best year for their pass D since ’04, but that was partly due to facing 1st or 2nd year Divisional QB’s in 6 of 16 games. Instead of trading UP to get impact at CB and specifically WR they traded DOWN, missing out on one of the “super seven” WR’s in the ’13 draft. Even with this sometimes harsh critique of their draft tendencies, the Pats might still have been Super worthy if not for injuries to the top NT in the NFL (Wilfork) and an all-pro LB (Mayo). Once again New England will be a serious contender in ’14.
Key Stats: Let’s start with turnovers, which were “just” +9 in ’13 and now +79 over their last 64 regular season games. This is incredible! NE seldom fumbles, as doing that gets you in Belichick’s doghouse, as RB Ridley fully knows. Offensively, the Pats were rebuilding their WR corps (with lower level draftees) yet still finished just one point behind the Bears and #3 in the NFL. They remained in the top 10 (9th) at 4.4-129 rushing the ball. The surprise was allowing 40 sacks, a number unheard of in the Brady era. Defensively, the Pats finally got that pass D% under 60% (57%) but are a different team without Talib. The run D clearly suffered without Wilfork, finishing 30th at 4.5-134. The total D was just 26th. The pass rush improved with 48 sacks (5th). The special team units were strong defensively. Spread-wise, New England remains 17-2 with same season Divisional revenge and also remained 39-15 as a Divisional road dog, although they did go 2-1 against the spread (ATS) as a dog in ’13.
Free Agency and Staff Notes: Ex-Panther WR LaFell is a steady target that could thrive here. CB Talib got a big offer from Denver and left, but New England recovered quickly to sign Revis, and later added good CB Browner, who first must serve out his suspension. Patrick Chung returns, replacing safety Adrien Wilson on the roster. RB Blount left. LB Spikes will be missed as a run defender. Safety Gregory played up in the box as well and leaves a void.
2014 Draft: Risk-reward! The Pats were rightfully worried about Seattle taking DT Easley at 32 so they stayed and drafted a player who if he ever gets healthy (two ACL injuries) has legit 1st round talent. Is QB Garoppolo the heir apparent to Brady in about 3-5 years when Tom is all done? If not, chalk this up as another wasted early pick that could have been used for an impact player somewhere else. The Pats traded back at the end of the 3rd round, picking up picks 105/179. For the 1st time in quite a while there were no strange, off the wall choices. I asked for one young OL and the Pats took three. The ratings are good, so this area was clearly fortified. It was quite a surprise to see them ignore TE, but unfortunately not a surprise to see them ignore LB and WR speed. For the record I would have addressed TE and safety with picks 29/62 and probably would have kept the original 3rd round pick or even traded up a bit for a draft dropping DL.
Roster Analysis:
QB: Tom Brady. Case closed.
RB: Ridley is #1 but (again) not for long if he continues to fumble. Vereen backs him up and is the main pass catching option as well. Rookie James White did not fumble but twice in college and is the next man up.
WR: Add LaFell to the lineup of Amendola, Edelman, Dobson, Boyce and Thompkins. They still need a consistent deep threat.
TE: Gronkowski is a top five TE but can’t stay healthy. Back-up TE’s come and go, so watch the waiver wire prior to opening day.
OL: Very cohesive. It runs nine deep now with the rookies on board..
DL: Wilfork is back and he was missed. Chandler Jones is the other tough DL. Easley and my sleeper of ’13, Chris Jones have untapped talent but the more experienced guys left along the DL are just filler types.
LB: Mayo returns. I like the starting unit a lot. I see no one with talent backing them up and that could cause real problems.
CB: Arrington and Dennard return but Talib does not. Revis takes his place. Browner will try to shake off the rust and contribute. 2nd year CB Logan Ryan adds depth.
Safety: McCourty is steady but what else is there. Harmon is substandard. Chung gets a 2nd shot but he gets hurt an awful lot. This is a weak link.
Special Teams: Generally good in all areas.
Coaching: On his best days Belichick is a master. On his worse days he makes poor crunch time decisions and amazingly poor mid to late round draft day decisions! OC Josh McDaniels and DC Matt Patricia return.
Team Keys: The pass D finally dropped below 60%. They won all their Super Bowls with a % below that #. Safety play won’t help, but Revis, coupled with the return of DL Wilfork and LB Mayo might keep this area strong. In fact, the return to health of Wilfork is a huge defensive key. Offensively, watch the RB rotation and also check to see if Dobson can stay healthy enough to give this team a stretch the field option at WR.
Did the preseason mean anything? New England sure hopes this is the year Steven Ridley stops fumbling as he has 1,300 yard potential. He lost one fumble in 19 rush attempts in August. Brady hit over 80%, but now won’t have top OL Logan Mankins on his side after money issues caused him to be traded. TE Tim Wright does add depth to a position of need. Vereen is the more than capable 3rd down back. The WR’s remain but oft-injured Aaron Dobson is the guy Brady hopes to have on a regular basis during the season. He can stretch the field if he can stay on the field. Last year CB Talib was that ‘cover” CB I asked this team to add. The pass D% finally came down to under that magic 60%. Hopefully Revis can have that same impact but he barely played in August and the pass D was terrible at 70%. How fast can DT Wilfork and LB Mayo get up to speed? This impacts New England’s run D. They combined for one tackle in August. There’s nothing special about the return game.
Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: New England has been known to start fast and the ’14 schedule gives them a great chance to do so once again. New England's first three opponents (Miami, Minnesota, Oakland) had a combined record of 17-30-1 a season ago. Their lone game on MNF is 9/29 at KC. That should be fun. They have revenge hosting Cincinnati but just six days to prepare as compared to Cincy’s 14. The Pats play on the road 10/12, and then do not go on the road again until 11/16! The bye week comes at a perfect time, right after a rematch hosting Peyton Manning and Denver and before a Sunday Night game at Indy and QB Luck. There could be a small letdown hosting the Lions the next week, this before a couple of tough games at Green Bay and at San Diego, also on Sunday night. Playing a prime time schedule can mean irregular weeks, so New England could slip in an occasional clunker given the pace of the mid to late schedule. New England has four games out of their time zone (only one in ’13). The Pats end ’14 with three straight Divisional contests. Maybe the AFC East won’t be in jeopardy, but these games could dictate who finishes second.
Bottom Line: This needs to be said! New England is stubborn, stupid, and inept when it comes to fully utilizing all their draft picks! I won’t clutter this preview with most of the reaches they have made in rounds two and three in past drafts. Actually, someone nationally and in New England finally wrote articles on this teams’ poor drafting tendencies over a year ago. Instead, let’s just take the case of Ryan Mallett. He SAT, just like New England wanted. He got traded for a low draft choice a few days ago. Once again, had this team drafted just one better player in the high rounds another Super Bowl would have been won. One more tackle or one more catch. That’s all it would have taken to build a true dynasty with this team. Getting back to ’14, it would be a surprise if someone overtook New England in the NFC East, but would not be a surprise if some of their games were closer than expected. If Ridley fumbles the remaining RB’s are average except for 3rd down. If Dobson can’t shake injury only TE Gronkowski stretches the field and he too is not 100%. Logan Mankins is gone. Should everyone on defense return healthy and Revis return to his old form this could be a 12 or 13 win team. New England has an AMAZING +79 turnover ratio the past 64 games. They don’t beat themselves. Once again they should be contending for a playoff bye in ’14.
Key Game: 11/2 hosting Denver. Brady will be motivated to face the top QB’s such as Luck and Rodgers but this game often helps decide who gets home field advantage in the playoffs. Handicapping Tip: New England and Tom Brady do especially well in games where they have revenge. Games 14-16 are all against their Divisional rivals. Check to see if the Pats lost to any of their AFC East rivals earlier in the season.
2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 31
New York Jets:
2013 RECORD: 8-8
2012 RECORD: 6-10
2011 RECORD: 8-8
2010 RECORD: 11-5
Team Overview: Give the NYJ some credit. There was less drama in ’13 as Rex Ryan took a more active role with the revamped defense. Rex’s contract was renewed after the Jets knocked Miami out of the playoff picture on closing day. Rookie QB Geno Smith had both good days and bad days. As funny as this sounds, Geno generally handled the New York media reasonably well, especially considering all the draft day hysterics. How good is he? That remains to be seen, as he was not helped much by an average OL and well below average WR and TE units. 8-8 sounds like a good record to build upon, but as Lee Corso would say, “not so fast!” Turnovers were high and might remain there with a young QB. Sacks were high and could remain high in ’14. A closer look at the ’13 NYJ season reveals that they may not have been as good as 8-8, meaning that the team must actually improve just to maintain this level. What about the drama? With Mike Vick here, that may ramp up as well.
Key Stats: The Jets had an even worse point ratio than the NYG (290-387). 8-8 teams need to be near even so these Jets have a very clear – point ratio heading into ’14. Like the NYG, part of that negative situation can be made up simply by fixing their -12 turnover ratio. The NYJ might be able to make up the more random -5 fumble part of the equation but Geno Smith is very raw and the interception ratio figures to be a tougher fix. The Jets’ D did an about face by taking a slightly below average run D and turning it into the #1 D at 3.4 allowed (88.3 in yardage). From ‘09’-12 the pass D% averaged 52.6%. Given the league average of over 60%, this is/was the best sustained run at the top I’ve seen. The new faces in the secondary still did well, but the figure this time was about 59%. The run O was good at 4.4 (tie 9th) and 135 per game (6th). The Jets had only 27 TD’s however. They also allowed 47 sacks, but the OL had lost some talent and now was blocking for a rookie QB. The punt return D could use a bit of work. Spread-wise, the Jets have some nice long term trends. They are 53-88 as a home favorite, including 3-2 in ’13, and a good 50-37 (4-3) as a road dog. They are 21-38 off back-to-back wins (no situations in ’13), and a poor 17-29 after playing rival Miami (8-19 at home). They are 10-19 after playing rival NE, and 18-8 as any MNF dog.
Free Agency and Staff Notes: The losses include WR Holmes, OT Howard and CB Cromartie. Eric Decker more than makes up for Holmes. RB Chris Johnson was cut by Tennessee. When motivated, Johnson is still a #1 RB who does not need to be in a rotation. The Jets failed to bring Revis back but added four players to their secondary. Dowling and Patrick once showed promise but injuries have caused them to miss way too much time. Mike Vick is in, meaning more media scrutiny!
2014 Draft: This was quite a polarizing draft for me. I love the picks for safety Pryor, TE Amaro, OG Dozier and the value late with LB Reilly. Pryor hits like he was born to be a Jet, playing for Rex Ryan. Amaro represented a blend of value and need. I am puzzled by what GM John Idzik and Rex Ryan saw in CB McDougle that caused him to be selected so high. WR was the top need for the Jets and to their credit they addressed this area three times. Unfortunately, the Jets made mistakes with all three choices. If you trade WR’s with the Packers, draft one more OL and select better CB’s then this draft works for me in a big way. I was told that they tried to move up in 2nd to get WR Lee. With 12 picks, why was that not possible!
Roster Analysis:
QB: Interesting to say the least! Wait, I said that last year! Watch Geno’s 55.8 pass %. Will the two QB’s be able to coexist?
RB: Powell and Ivory (1530-4.3) remain, but Chris Johnson is the lead guy. This is suddenly a very deep (five deep?) unit.
WR: Decker could help deep threat Hill get open and Kerley is a solid contributor. I just don’t like the rookies!
TE: Lead TE Cumberland was awful, with 26 receptions. Rookie Amaro won’t block much but is capable of 50 receptions in ’14.
OL: I like Ferguson, Winters and Mangold, but have questions about Colon and Giacomini. Perhaps oft-injured Ijalana or rookie Dozier can help. Either way, the unit does not have the luxury of protecting for a stud QB.
DL: Who is Damon Harrison? He is holding off more touted NT Ellis. The DE’s are solid. Depth is negligible so be careful!
LB: Three of four are solid (Davis, Harris, Pace). OLB Coples is not bad for the 4th spot. The drop after these guys is steep.
CB: Cromartie and a less than 100% Milliner start. Free agent Patterson might challenge them. Dowling and Patrick add depth.
Safety: Landry and Allen return, but rookie Pryor may be a day one starter. Jarrett is a decent 4th option.
Special Teams: Folk looks good in August but usually disappoints during the season. He had his best year in ’13. Rookie WR Saunders has PR talent, so my 27th rated guy could find a niche here.
Coaching: OC Marty Mornhinweg is back for another season. Dennis Thurman is the DC but Rex Ryan is very hands-on.
Team Keys: QB %. The turnover ratio, which was -10 in ’12 and -12 in ’13. Can the pass D% (fine in ’13) return to elite levels? The Jets need to score more points.
Did the preseason mean anything? Offensively, the Jets looked better, especially Geno Smith and Chris Johnson. Smith was 23-33 with a 1-1 ratio and no sacks. Johnson ran 23-107, and back-ups (former starters) Ivory and Powell combined to go 20-116. The think the OL is still a work in progress so expect sacks allowed in ’14 to remain a tad high. Rookie TE Amaro should unseat Cumberland at some point during ’14. Feel free to revisit the draft ratings above as they pertain to the WR position. The rookies will have no impact! Decker of course upgrades the unit even though he is more of a strong #2 WR type. The ’13 run D was #1 in the NFL. The August run D was not as good but should be fine when the games count. Rex Ryan’s pass D slumped in ’13 and given the health and talent in the secondary right now could slump some more. It might be hard to play press coverage with so few CB options. Watch the pass D% carefully in September! The return game is unsettled.
Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: Four teams have the dreaded – point ratio and the Jets are one of those teams, but if they can reduce their turnover ratio the two areas could cancel each other out. Still, the Jets better win their opener hosting Oakland, as the schedule is quite challenging early. Games 2-4 are vs. NFC North teams Green Bay, Chicago and Detroit, two of them on the road. Games 5-7 are at San Diego, Denver, and a short week to a game at New England. By this time they will have faced Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady! Their pass D% slipped from top three status a year ago. With lingering health issues I expect some problems early on. The goal would clearly be 4-3 after this schedule, and Rex Ryan is 11-6 in games played in September. Of course Geno Smith threw 13 interceptions on the road in ’13. The Jets have won their last two at famed Lambeau Field and have played very well in San Diego. When the Jets face Denver they will have Eric Decker. Will Decker be a factor without Peyton Manning? Second place in the AFC East is up for grabs, so having 10 and 14 days off before facing Buffalo is a bonus. A potential “trap” game is 12/7 at Minnesota, this time outdoors. The Jets will have just played bitter rival Miami on Monday night! The game at Tennessee on 12/14 marks the return of former Titan RB Chris Johnson. That will be an easy motivator for him. The Jets lost at Tennessee in each of the last two seasons. The final two games are in their Division. They host New England (beat them at home in ’13) and conclude the season for the third time in four years at Miami.
Bottom Line: The Jets avoided having a circus atmosphere last year but with Vick waiting in the wings a slow start could make for some interesting times. The point D in August gives cause for concern. I think the start will be just 3-4, and maybe they will be around 6-6 heading to Minnesota and Tennessee early in December. It will be interesting to see which QB, Geno Smith or EJ Manuel plays better in ’14. I think Miami is better than the Jets, but not as soundly coached. Regardless, if Buffalo, Miami and the Jets keep beating each other then all three will remain outside of the AFC playoff picture.
Key Games: 9/22 on MNF hosting Chicago followed by the short week but still at home hosting the Lions. The Jets are not at full strength in the secondary and will face Cutler and Stafford in these games. On the other hand, Chicago must improve defensively and Jim Caldwell is the Lion’s head coach. Can the Jets make an early statement in a positive way? Handicapping Tip: The Jets are poor as a home favorite, but solid as a road dog with more than 7 points. It would be very interesting if the line was that high 10/5 at San Diego.
2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 23.5