RealGM Analysis
Atlanta Falcons:
2013 RECORD: 4-12
2012 RECORD: 13-3
2011 RECORD: 10-6
2010 RECORD: 13-3
Team Overview: Excuses, excuses. Atlanta lost Julio Jones early but it was clear from the start that this was an incomplete team. “Experts” knew going in that Atlanta was not as good as their ’13 record showed, and Las Vegas agreed, both in their Power # as well as their season win expectations. While the ’13 draft attempted to address head on one of their glaring weaknesses (pass D%), Atlanta was ill equipped to provide the rookies with any pass rush help. NFL sack numbers increased dramatically in ’13 but the Falcons were left behind, with just 32 defensive sacks. Offensively, line play suffered as Matt Ryan was sacked 44 times, a far cry from the usual under 30 per season. Atlanta was 36-12 from ’10 through ’12. Can Atlanta return to this level of performance? In the NFC South the answer is usually yes but some key areas must improve for that to happen.
Key Stats: Offensively, the Falcons were still fine but there are holes at RB and along the OL. Losing WR Julio Jones had an impact but Atlanta allowed 44 sacks in ’13 after allowing 54 combined in ’11 and ’12. The run O was “acceptable” at 3.9 but last in the NFL at just 78 yards per game. Turnovers went from +13 to -7. The defense needs work. The run D was not good in ’12 at 123-4.8. It was worse (31st) last year at 136-4.8. The pass D regressed to 66.1%, the 5th straight year over the magic 60% figure. Atlanta allowed 46% on 3rd down and opponents threw for 31 TD passes. Defensive sacks tied 28th at just 32, which is unfortunately about their norm the past three years. Atlanta began ’13 with – point ratio and when they jogged through the preseason at 0-4, red flags were raised. People can “argue” that the preseason means little but about 9% of teams make the playoffs going 0-4 in August. Spread-wise, the positive is a 21-7 ATS ledger as a dog to the rival Saints, but the team was a rare 0-2 in bounce-back games off scoring 10 or fewer points. They are 5-18 (1-1) on MNF and remain 16-33 off BB SU wins. What was said last year is still true; Atlanta needs to play better in big games and MUST learn how to finish drives in crunch time.
Free Agency and Staff Changes: OG Asamoah will start immediately, while DT’s Tyson Jackson and Paul Soliai hope to solidify a less than solid defensive line. Average CB Josh Wilson had 93 tackles last year for Washington. Devin Hester could jump start the return game. The only meaningful loss thus far is the retirement of elite TE Tony Gonzalez. Bear Pascoe adds a small amount of depth to that position. Scott Pioli is the new Assistant GM. His overall track record is not that impressive.
2014 Draft: Atlanta did the right thing early once they could not get fair market value to go and get Clowney. They kept on track by drafting a pure pass rusher and admittedly hit another need when they took a safety. The draft fell apart after the nice selection of RB Freeman. Impact LB is a need, but Atlanta drafted a few lower rated players instead, including trading UP. Value was lost after pick 103, with no sure fire pass rushers added. Better was clearly possible. NOTE: Atlanta added * rated * rated WR Reedy, * rated TE Pederson and * rated PK Basil after the draft. Reedy caught 195 passes for Toledo but lacks NFL speed. Pederson is an overachiever who may not be tall enough to in-line block.
Roster Analysis:
QB: Matt Ryan is a top 10 QB and has not peaked yet but must play better inside the red zone.
RB: Jackson is older, and Jacquizz Rodgers makes this an all OSU backfield, but rookie Devonta Freeman is the real key!
WR: White and Jones form a solid 1-2 punch. Douglas is a strong #3 option.
TE: Levine Toilolo and Bear Pascoe won’t demand double coverage in the red zone like Tony Gonzalez did.
OL: Left Tackle Sam Baker was nothing special, but his ’14 absence forces rookie Jake Matthews to move to his spot. The line underachieved in ’13 and pass protection might be an issue now.
DL: New, with Solari and Tyson Jackson likely to start. Watch the run D closely in September.
LB: Many new bodies have been added in the past 12-15 months but this unit has little impact. Rookie Hageman will be the situational sacker but the unit lacks any kind of splash.
CB: As expected, ’13 rookies Trufant and Alford are the ’14 starters. There is a semblance of depth back there.
Safety: Rookie Southward will challenge but likely back up starters William Moore and Dwight Lowery. Perhaps Zeke Motta can contribute as the 4th option.
Special teams: The return unit has had issues but Eric Weems was signed 8/21 and could fill the role.
Coaching: Mike Smith is a good coach, but the combination of Smith and OC Dirk Koetter must improve how they address late game offensive play calling. DC Mike Nolan is decent as well but maybe not creative enough. Atlanta fired its offensive and defensive line coaches from a year ago. How will that work out?
Team Keys: Many! They need more balance in the run to pass play calling. They need to play better in crunch time and in big games. When will the pass D% go down? Who rushes the QB? Can rookie RB Freeman inject life into the 78 per game run O? Can the OL limit sacks? The -7 turnover ratio needs to be fixed.
Did the preseason mean anything? Atlanta could not run the ball in the regular season of ’13 and this August it was more of the same. Rookie Freeman was 32-134-4.2 but Rodgers was 20-68 and Steven Jackson did not carry the ball. Freeman also caught 11 balls and I suspect he better be ready to see significant action. WR’s White and Jones are back and looking good, with Matt Ryan hitting in excess of 75%. TE Tony Gonzalez will be missed, meaning play calling must improve in the red zone. The August point O was low. Pat Angerer had 12 tackles and was cut. Once again the LB’s will be young. Rookies Shembo (16-1) and DL Hageman (6-1) need to contribute when the games count. The run D was surprisingly good in preseason. The secondary got in the best work and if there is any push up front, should improve. The only holdover sacker for the Falcons is Osi Umenyiora and he had 1 tackle. Hester should help the KR game.
Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: Can Atlanta forget about last year? The good news schedule-wise is avoiding most of the top tier NFL teams such as Denver, New England and Indy in the AFC, and Seattle and San Fran in the NFC. The bad news is that Atlanta will play in London as the “home” team, meaning they have just seven “true” home games. The season starts out with a bang, hosting New Orleans and then going to solid Cincinnati. Atlanta will not be big prime time players like they were a year ago. With just one Monday game and one Thursday game the Falcons will have some consistency in preparation time, with fewer short weeks and perhaps, fewer emotional letdowns. The other piece of good news is that they will not face any team that will be off a week of rest. Road games 9/28 at Minny and 10/5 at the NYG will help determine if the Falcons are closer to ’12 levels as opposed to ’13. I would say that games 1-10 ALL are interesting, as Minnesota is the weakest of the group and non-playoff teams Chicago, Detroit and Baltimore are certainly playoff contenders. I think the goal would be to get to 5-5 before hosting Cleveland and Arizona. December however is rough. It starts with that Monday game at potentially very cold Green Bay, then continues with a short week to prepare for a usually December sound Pittsburgh team. The (Divisional) closing games are at New Orleans and home to Tampa.
Bottom Line: Last year was predictable. Atlanta started with a – point ratio and a + double digit turnover ratio, and that, coupled with a 1st place schedule spelled doom. They were 0-4 in August and winless preseason teams make the playoffs 9% of the time. Suddenly this 13-3 team was looking quite vulnerable, especially with rookie CB’s. Issues such as play calling, defensive sacks and the run game remain, but I expect the turnover ratio to improve and the secondary to begin a steady rise in production. Unfortunately, I project their last place sack total to DROP, and I don’t look for the pass D% to be great thanks to a lack of pressure. I see 4-6 early on and 8-8 the ceiling. That sounds strange considering I like the staff and Matt Ryan will have healthy WR’s but they lost their LT to injury and their front seven lacks impact. Atlanta went 36-12 while producing just 95 sacks so maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t see a roster spike with recent drafts other than at CB. All eyes will be on Matt Ryan and rookie RB Freeman.
Key Games: 9/28 at Minny. A loss might mean 1-3. 10/12 hosting Chicago. The Bears will be playing their 4th road game in a five week span. The London game vs. Detroit on 10/26. This staff should have the edge in preparation and that needs to translate into a win.
Handicapping Tip: Atlanta has not played well on MNF vs. the NFC and coupled with a 1-6 spread mark on grass in these situations the game at GB 12/8 looks daunting. On the positive side, Cincy has a new defensive coordinator and has not been a great home favorite other than in December so getting 4 or more 9/14 looks inviting.
2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 24.5
Carolina Panthers:
2013 RECORD: 12-4
2012 RECORD: 7-9
2011 RECORD: 6-10
2010 RECORD: 2-14
Team Overview: Carolina started 1-3 and at that point the GM was openly courting future coaching candidates to replace Ron Rivera. Fast forward to January, where at 5-1 odds (thanks), Ron Rivera was winning the NFL coach of the year award thanks to an 11-1 finish. Good for Rivera, who overcame some rather horrible drafting decisions from the previous GM, who was fired DURING the ’12 season. Meanwhile, Cam Newton has evolved not only as a top ten QB but also as a maturing leader of a team on the rise. Can these Panthers continue to improve? Maybe, but the pass D needs a major overhaul and the collective corps of WR’s needs an upgrade. 2nd year GM Dave Gettleman did find a capable WR but it can easily be argued that nothing significant was done along the OL or in the secondary. Prior to the ’14 draft I noted that the needs for this team were major, and much more than usual for a team just off a 12-4 record. Now it’s August and Carolina has me worried.
Key Stats: The Panthers doubled up on their opponents in TD’s 42 to 21, aided by a +11 turnover ratio. Carolina was 2nd in points allowed. Other great stats include the #1 sack D at 60, the #2 run D at 87 yards per game, the #2 total D allowing 3.1 per game and a tied 3rd in allowing just 17 pass TD’s. Two areas need immediate attention. The total offense was 26th, at 317 per game. The pass D was awful at 66.6%, about the same as ‘12’s 66.8%. Carolina will not get any better until that # improves.
Free Agency and Staff Notes: Every Carolina Panther who caught a pass in ’13 is gone! Stud LT Jordan Gross retired, joined by OG Hangartner. A pair of serviceable DB’s, Captain Munnerlyn and Mike Mitchell left. For most teams these DB’s are replaceable but here the DB talent was already rail thin. DB’s Cason, DeCoud and Harper were added, as were WR’s Cotchery and Avant, TE Dickson and top CFL sacker Alex Hall, who has some 4-3 experience in the NFL.
2014 Draft: Carolina got talented players early, with Benjamin one of my record nine WR’s with 1st round grades, Ealy slotted on my board to go by pick 45 at the latest and Turner being versatile, decently rated, and in an area of need. Still, Carolina needed a #1 and #2 WR. They needed an offensive tackle and two additional offensive line starters. They needed a cover CB and depth to replace Munnerlyn. Nothing else really mattered! I understand the need for Gaffney but the Panthers needed to add, not subtract picks in this deep draft. USA Today said that it was “hard to argue with the value Carolina got with each selection”. I respectfully disagree, and would have doubled up at WR, OL and DB.
Roster Analysis:
QB: Bigger, stronger, and faster! Cam Newton is the guy. He’s not at 100% right now which could be an issue early in ’14. The back-ups don’t excite.
RB: Stewart looks healthy for the 1st time in quite a while. This unit has plenty of depth and rookie Gaffney should fit right in.
WR: ALL NEW! Cotchery and Avant are #3 WR types and Underwood is about to be cut. Rookie Benjamin is the best of the bunch but he’s going to be raw and has to work on some aspects of his game, such as dropping balls.
TE: Veteran Ed Dickson joins Greg Olsen in a “serviceable” TE grouping.
OL: Byron Bell is the new LT. A pair of OG’s (Kugbuia, Silatolo) are coming off injuries. Raw, 20 year old rookie Trai Turner joins them. The RT is Nate Chandler. This unit is not very good.
DL: Rookie Kony Ealy could see some immediate playing time with underachiever Frank Alexander suspended and solid Greg Hardy possibly joining him. The year two DT’s are already solid starters.
LB: Kuechly has top level NFL instincts and might be the NFL’s best LB. This is the strength of the defense provided Thomas Davis and his body find a way to keep producing despite multiple surgeries.
CB: I liked the two Josh’s (Norman and Thomas) when drafted but they need to up their game even more now with Munnerlyn gone and only average starter Cason added. Charles Godfrey will move from safety to CB to help fill the void for a team that allows a way too high pass D%.
Safety: Also new, with free agents Harper and DeCoud slated to start. A pair of lower rated draftees back them up, but I like ’13 UFA Lester as the 3rd choice.
Special Teams: PK Gano has a strong leg but can be inconsistent. New players will be tried in the return game.
Coaching: Ron Rivera was in over his head as the main man early in his career but he sure knows defense and the point D is low despite the lack of talent and the very high pass D%. Is Mike Shula the right guy at OC? He is hardly a great play caller and lacks creativity in crunch time.
Team Keys: The way too high pass D%. The new faces along the OL. Cam’s health. Progress for an underwhelming WR unit. Watch to see if the 15 points per game allowed on defense climbs a bit.
Did the preseason mean anything? Carolina is rebuilding their OL and of course gutted their WR unit. With Cam not at 100% the point O suffered. Newton was 57%, but took 5 sacks in just 21 pass attempts. He did not throw an interception! Rookie WR Benjamin (12-173-1) may have the most impact of any NFL rookie at that position as he is clearly the #1 target. Free agent pick-ups Cotchery and Avant are next, but won’t scare opposing defenses. I like undrafted free agent “Philly” Brown. At least TE is well stocked with Olsen and Dickson. As RB DeAngelo Williams wears down it is good news that Jonathan Stewart looks ready to go! It won’t be easy running behind this new OL. The weak link in ’13 on the defensive side of the ball was their 66.6% pass D. In August the figure was 70%! This is a problem. The DL is more than ready, and defensive sacks should remain stout. Philly Brown has return specialist skill. PK Gano was just 1-2 and runs hot and cold.
Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: It’s hard to repeat in the NFC South. Carolina plays Philly and Seattle out of conference while its NFC South rivals do not. If the Panthers regroup from a so-so August and beat Tampa then 3-0 is possible as the host Detroit and often slow starting Pittsburgh next. Baltimore and former Panther WR Steve Smith host Carolina week #4. Games 6-11 are awfully tough (on paper), with road games at Cincy, Green Bay and Philly (Monday Night), and home games vs. Seattle, New Orleans on a short week and Atlanta, right before the bye and right after their Monday Night road game. The 10/26 Seattle game will be their third try in as many years to beat Russell Wilson at home. Twice they’ve lost close games. The 10/30 game hosting New Orleans will be just their second Divisional game of the season. They play only one ’13 playoff team (New Orleans) in games 11-16 so if Carolina can avoid a slow start, and if they can hold their own in games 6-10 then a playoff berth will still be in play.
Bottom Line: The roster isn’t perfect so Cam must shake off injury, RB Stewart must elevate the rush attack and the DL must dominate for the Panthers to hold off NFC South challengers. My biggest issue is the OL, since I know the pass D% will be poor. I think it will impact the run and pass game. I give them a chance at 9-7 due to some scheduling edges early and late, but concerns at WR sure seem to indicate 8-8 as the ceiling. It will all come crashing down if Cam is not close to 100%. Watch this team closely in case it all implodes. I like HC Rivera but the GM does not, as evidenced by his trying to replace him early in ’13. Cam Newton is a special QB and in ’14 he will have to be even more than that.
Key Games: 9/7 at Tampa. A win here could mean 3-0 and a great confidence boost. 10/26 vs. Seattle. It can be argued that Carolina should be 2-0 hosting the Seahawks instead of 0-2. If they lose at home for a 3rd consecutive year the fallout may slip over to Thursday night and the short week when they host a revenge-minded New Orleans team.
Handicapping Tip: While I believe Carolina will be a “play against” team in ’14 there is one situation they have been strong in. They are 65% against the number as a road dog coming off a loss on the road. Games 10/19 at Green Bay and 12/7 at New Orleans might come into play if the Panthers lose in their previous outing.
2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 26.5
New Orleans Saints:
2013 RECORD: 11-5
2012 RECORD: 7-9
2011 RECORD: 13-3
2010 RECORD: 11-5
Team Overview: Sean Peyton returned from his one year ban and the Saints rebounded with another year of stellar offensive play and at least some improvement defensively. They were not invincible, losing to Carolina even though the Panthers played a soft cover pass scheme, and losing badly to eventual Super champ Seattle. Still, New Orleans has to feel good about leaving bounty-gate behind, looking forward to even better results. It was noted in this spot last year that, “even an average defense could mean the playoffs in ’13”. Additional improvement could make for a deeper run in ’14.
Key Stats: The Saints and Drew Brees again eclipsed 5,000 pass yards and Brees threw for 39 TD’s. The run O was down but the Saints were still 4th in total offense. Like in NE, sacks allowed went up. The # is usually around 25-27 but last year hit 37. Of course they typically sack others at around 30 per year and that figure rose to a top four number at 49. The overall yards allowed on D improved astronomically to 4th (306) but the run D was still high at 4.6. That still was a modest improvement over their 4.9 or greater figures from the previous three seasons. One strong stat was allowing opponents to convert just 35% of the time on 3rd down. That helped lead them to a +5:21 time of possession figure. One area that could regress is the fumble ratio. The Saints lost just one fumble in ’13 and that is hard to replicate. Spread-wise, New Orleans dropped to 60-42 vs. the AFC but rose to 13-6 off a bye. They improved to 10-20 in their final home game.
Free Agency and Staff Notes: Other than a fringe OL signing the big news was getting a quality safety in Jarius Byrd. Paired with Kenny Vaccaro this unit looks great. Losing RB/return specialist Sproles, WR Moore, DL Coleman and Will Smith and safeties Jenkins and Harper makes this free agency period a net loss. Adding CB Champ Bailey might work out, but how much does he have left in the tank?
2014 Draft: The rumors were true! The Saints coveted WR Cooks and knew that Philly and others would take him before pick 27. That was fine, but even though CB was a bolded need, Jean-Baptiste is as raw as they come and will be exposed if asked to play as a #2 CB in the next two seasons. Of course I like Cooks but for this team I still would have chosen CB’s Dennard or Roby in the 1st round and drafted Desir instead of Jean-Baptiste, giving me a chance to get another quality player in the 2nd round. NOTE: The Saints added my 26th WR, Coleman and * rated center Armstrong after the draft. Coleman hopes to stick and replace Henderson as the occasional deep threat with his high yards-per-reception average. Armstrong fits an area of need and was the Division II top OC. The Saints love small college prospects like this and have had success with them.
Special Note: It was reported that Mel Kiper drew a blank when OT Rooks was selected in the 6th round. Mel, you were not alone! I studied a record high 500 players this year and Rooks was not one of them!
Special Note II: New Orleans has drafted a total of 32 players over the past seven years. Teams like STL, Seattle and SF do that in just three years!
Roster Analysis:
QB: Brees is elite but does occasionally have games with multiple interceptions.
RB: Ingram is ready to be the power run guy and Thomas is ready to fill the pass catching void with Sproles gone.
WR: The depth is awfully strong behind Colston with Stills, Cooks, Meachem and Toon all capable of big #’s in this offense.
TE: I said HERE in ’11 that Graham “is going to be special”. The Saints added veteran Watson in ’13 to fill behind him.
OL: They go six deep, with LT Armstead now the full time starter. Overall this is an above average group.
DL: About the same. This might not be good news for the run D. Maybe John Jenkins can unseat one of the starters.
LB: ILB’s Hawthorne and Lofton are serviceable although some people think that might be a stretch. OLB Butler is the weak link in my eyes. Rookie Fortt might eventually unseat Hawthorne but I don’t see much talent waiting in the wings at OLB.
CB: Patrick Robinson still needs to step up his game; hence Champ Bailey was brought in as the Saints want to win now. Raw rookie Jean-Baptiste backs these two guys up, with starter Keenan Lewis still likely to play more than the older Bailey.
Safety: Free agent Jarius Byrd and 2nd year SS Kenny Vaccaro form a really good tandem. Back-up depth is sorely lacking although I do think rookie Sunseri is an asset once he gets past all of his injuries.
Special Teams: I’m not sold on Cooks as a return specialist. I see a regression here with no one on the current roster all that special. This team had a disparity in regard to the return defense, as PR coverage was strong, but KR coverage was not.
Coaching: Sean Payton demonstrated how critical a head coach can be to a team, especially offensively. Rob Ryan got the defensive #’s to be much better, but some of the 4th quarter performances were lacking.
Team Keys: Front seven play. I’m not sure how the Saints managed to get 49 sacks. I do know that the run D needs fixing. Is 2nd year LT Armstead ready to protect at the highest level? I’m a bit concerned about PK accuracy.
Did the preseason mean anything? New Orleans enters ’14 full of confidence even though Drew Brees was just 9-15 in August. RB Ingram finally looks like a feature guy. Pierre Thomas was too lighly used but may rack up 75 receptions in this offense. RB depth is limited. TE Graham is more than ready but WR Stills is not healthy and Meachem was cut. My friend Brandin Cooks may move right up on the depth chart due to all of this (9-101-1), with the untested Nick Toon in the mix. Joe Morgan had a great camp and will start out as the #2 option. The OL allowed a high (for them) 37 sacks in ’13 but seemed to play better this August. The run D looks below par and I don’t see any great DL options. In fact, the front seven is average at best, although in Rob Ryan’s scheme they do tend to overachieve in putting pressure on opposing QB’s. Safeties Vaccaro, Byrd and rookie Sunseri (23 tackles, I liked him on draft day) are a close 2nd to Seattle’s talented group! The pass D was about 60% exact in ’13 and could be better with such impact safeties but the position of CB is not deep and the August pass D (65%) is at least of some concern. The Saints went 8-8 in field goals in August then cut its two kickers. I suspect one will be brought back. I don’t think Cooks is a viable return specialist and I see their punt return offense as fairly poor as of this writing.
Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: New Orleans will start ’14 with three of four games on the road, beginning with the key Divisional tilt at Atlanta. To be honest, games 1-6 are not that difficult and anything less than 4-2 would be a sign of trouble. They should go at least 2-1 at Atlanta, Cleveland and Dallas, and will have two weeks off before going to Detroit. Home games are vs. Minny and Tampa and both teams feature new coaches. Games 7-12 are the toughest but in this stretch the Saints will play at home four times. These home games are vs. GB, SF, Cincy and Baltimore (Monday night) so I could see just 2-2 as the result, especially with SF seeking revenge and all four teams good enough to challenge New Orleans’ weaker front seven. Both Baltimore (game 12) and Pittsburgh (game 13, at Pittsburgh) will be off bye weeks and that will be difficult. Pittsburgh tends to play its best football late in the year. That game and a MNF night game at Chicago could be played in inclement weather, something the Saints would prefer to avoid. Closing games are inside the Division vs. Atlanta and at Tampa.
Bottom Line: This is a very good team in year #2 of Rob Ryan’s defensive scheme so the needle could be pointing up but the schedule is tricky, RB depth is thin and the front seven on D is vulnerable to the run. I see them about 10-6 but they are capable of more than that. They are a better team as compared to Carolina but have to be wary of Atlanta and Tampa being better than they were a year ago. New Orleans had the NFL’s worst defense in ’12 but Rob Ryan made a big difference in ’13. The next step is to play better 4th quarter defense, something they did NOT do well in ’13.
Key Game: 10/26 vs. GB. It’s entirely possible that New Orleans could start out 6-0 before this game. Even at 5-1, a win here would put them in line for a playoff bye. A loss, followed by a short week and a game at Carolina could trigger a losing streak with SF next up and rested Baltimore and Pittsburgh soon to follow!
Handicapping Tip: New Orleans will be favored in most games in ’14 but has the experience to start quickly. Many spread wins could develop before playing 10/19 at Detroit but for that game the Saints are not only good at their dome, but also 13-5 against the spread off a week of rest.
2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 31
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
2013 RECORD: 4-12
2012 RECORD: 7-9
2011 RECORD: 4-12
2010 RECORD: 10-6
Team Overview: As written last year, Tampa fans weren’t thrilled when Greg Schiano (Rutgers) was named the head coach. Most players did not buy into Schiano’s style of coaching (and communicating). Most opposing coaches did not welcome him into their fraternity. He’s gone now, but there were some things that Schiano did quite well. Teams coached by Greg usually end up with strong turnover ratios as well as stout run D’s. Tampa finished ’13 with a +10 ratio despite youth at QB and a soft pass D. The run D was slightly above average, a year after going from worst to first. Lovie Smith takes over a team that has the potential to move up in the NFC but is also quite young in certain key areas. The current thinking here is to build this team for the long run, taking the best of the Schiano era and mixing it with what Smith did well in Chicago. It can be done.
Key Stats: Tampa scored just 288 points (30th). Part of the reason is clearly suspect QB play (Freeman) and a rookie QB (Glennon) plus losing stud RB Martin for 10+ games but the vanilla scheme is equally at fault. The 3rd down conversion rate was a very low 30%. The OL is functional but youth at QB and RB contributed to their allowing 47 sacks. Despite being behind plenty of times and despite Glennon’s strong 19-9 ratio Tampa gave up almost 1,000 more passing yards than they obtained. Total offensive yards were 32nd in the NFL at 277 per game. It won’t be easy to make up ground since Tampa is unlikely to repeat a +10 turnover ratio, especially without Schiano. The pass D% remained high at 64.4% with 30 passing TD’s allowed. This area needs immediate attention. The kick return D tied for 1st but the punt return D was not great. Tampa was unlucky that opposing kickers made 31 of 32 field goals. Defensive sacks were up from their five year average of 27.5 per year but at 35, still well below the record NFL average of 41. Spread-wise, I noted last year that, “with the new staff, spread stats need to be monitored”. Tampa is 24-12 as a non-Divisional home dog (2-2 in ’12-13). They are 15-6 as a dog of 10 points or more (1-1). They fell to 1-11 when placed in the role of a home underdog in their last home game.
Free Agency and Staff Notes: The new coaching staff wants to reshape the roster their way. Offensively, QB Luke McCown has already been anointed the starter over Glennon. Reserve WR Louis Murphy and TE Brandon Myers add depth, but will not make up for the loss of traded WR Mike Williams. OT Anthony Collins should start. Tampa did suffer multiple OL defections, including OT Penn, OG’s Joseph and Lawsen, OC Zuttah and swing OL Carmini. Defensively, DE Michael Johnson could give a nice lift to the pass rush. CB’s Verner and Jenkins will be a nice fit in the new scheme. A couple of LB’s are gone and of course Tampa did not pick up CB Revis and his bloated salary. Safety Major Wright reunited with HC Smith. Former Cal coach Jeff Tedford is the new offensive coordinator. Former Viking Head Coach Leslie Frazier is the new defensive coordinator. Expect the pass D% to remain over 60% with the softer cover two scheme the preferred choice of this new staff.
2014 Draft: Did Lovie Smith cringe in the Tampa draft room? The defensive-minded HC was part of an all-offensive draft. I didn’t show TE as a need but this pick carries pass catching value to a team that needed it. RB Sims might be the premier 3rd down back in this draft but may have been chosen in lieu of a position that has more pressing needs. WR Herron basically replaces Mike Willaims given that’s the pick Tampa received for him. Why did the Bucs ignore OLB and safety during the draft? I like the focus of drafting two OL but would have chosen higher rated players. Should they have taken a pass rusher at #69?
Roster Analysis:
QB: Josh McCown was coaching in high school in ’13. Now he’s highly coveted. Mike Glennon had a better than expected rookie debut. Sitting one more year is not necessarily a bad thing.
RB: Martin was great in ’12 and injured in ’13. Can the new OL open holes for him? James is good in a pinch, but rookie Sims and his potential 3rd down ability will have to wait as he will miss most or all of ’14.
WR: Jackson is a true #1. Evans may be the #2 option as a rookie. The physical, but volatile WR will likely have his ups and downs. As many as four other players have fringe #3 WR potential, with rookie Herron having the most upside.
TE: Converted WR Wright was a nice find for a unit that sorely needed a TE. In ’14 the unit is loaded with rookie Seferian-Jenkins joining Wright, Stoicker and free agent Myers.
OL: Can Carl Nicks make a comeback? If so, the left side is in good hands. OC Dietrich-Smith joins LT Collins as free agent starters. The right side of the OL is average at best. The unit allowed a too high 47 sacks in ’13. Nicks needs to be 100%.
DL: The starters were fine, but how will they perform without Schiano’s run D expertise?
LB: OLB David is the star. ILB Foster is average (not instinctive enough). OLB Casillas is better used as a reserve. Unfortunately there are no other LB’s that possess starting skill, and maybe not even back-up skill.
CB: DB play was terrible in ’12 and ’13, even with Revis. They go without a star now, but are five deep and could improve.
SS. Barron and Goldson were productive as 1st time Tampa Bay starters. Major Wright is a solid 3rd option.
Special Teams: Often a revolving door, Connor Barth gets the initial PK call now.
Coaching: Lovie Smith has credibility in the eyes of his players. That’s an upgrade over Schiano. I’m not sure how OC Tedford or DC Frazier will do. I do know that Frazier never lowered the pass D% when last a DC and when a head coach at Minnesota.
Team Keys: Tampa improved to 35 defensive sacks in ’13 but that has never been an area of strength. Can Martin run behind this new OL? Can OG Nicks be a factor? Defensively, Tampa has elevated its starting 11 but has little to no depth other than at CB. The pass D% is the #1 key. Improving from the 32nd and last offense is another key. QB play must be watched. I’m genuinely worried about the +10 turnover ratio. Will kicking be a liability? Finally, the OC and DC watch is on.
Did the preseason mean anything? Tampa allowed 115 points in August of ‘13, which was 2nd worst. They had a 5-13 sack ratio. The pass D% remained over 60%. These all turned out to be warning signs for the season ahead. Amazingly, Tampa had 21 defensive interceptions and a +10 turnover ratio but the sack ratio was -12 and the pass D its usual 64+%. QB play of course was awful and RB Martin was hurt. This August the point O was poor and the run O just 3.1. Doug Martin is back, but did not excel in August. The OL allowed 14 sacks. Josh McCown hit 74% but threw 2 interceptions and took 4 sacks in 27 attempts. I think this will be typical in ’14, meaning I see that +10 turnover ratio moving in the wrong direction! Remember, he will not be with offensive guru Trestman in ’14. Rookie WR Mike Evans will help, as will TE Seferian-Jenkins, especially with the trade of Tim Wright to New England last week. Look for the offense to run hot and cold. The run D remained strong, but the pass D (68+%) showed no signs of recovery! This is an average sacking team with a few solid players throughout the D but there is at least one hole in each defensive area. Right now I see an average team with an offensive coordinator who is on leave and a defensive coordinator who can’t stop the pass. As for kicking, reliable Conner Barth was let go in favor of someone named Patrick Murray. Murray was 2-2 in August but no kicks were even 40 yards of length! The return game looks below par.
Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: So just how ready is this team for real football? Just like Atlanta, Tampa avoids most of the top tier NFL teams such as Denver, New England and Indy in the AFC, and Seattle and San Fran in the NFC. Head Coach Lovie Smith is really re-working the roster and given the history of the NFC South, no team can be discounted. Unfortunately, there is bad news. The Bucs are the only team with 3 straight road games AND two other trips with back-to-back road games. The consecutive road games appear in weeks 3-5. The back-to-back road trips are part of a treacherous stretch of games which sees them away from home four times in a five week span between 11/16 and 12/14. Is that fair? Tampa may need to start 2-0 hosting Carolina and the Rams, as those three road games are Atlanta on a short week, Pittsburgh and New Orleans. Tampa has lost six straight to New Orleans. Baltimore is next, followed by a week off. Tampa will likely need to go at least 2-1 in games 7-9 when they face Minny, travel to home challenged Cleveland and host Atlanta, who will be off their bye week. From game #10 to game #14 the Bucs are at the Redskins, Bears, Lions and Panthers, with a home game against Cincinnati in the middle of that span. Note that Washington will also be off a bye week, and the game at Chicago might be in cold weather, a situation the Bucs have traditionally not fared too well in. Of course that game in Chicago carries extra meaning since Lovie Smith used to coach there until he was fired after a 10-6 record! The Bucs close the year with home games against NFC North champion Green Bay and NFC wild card New Orleans.
Bottom Line: Before writing the preseason notes above and this section I was high on Tampa. Now I’m concerned! The head coach is an upgrade but not the coordinators. The run O is a work in progress. Josh McCown was coaching in high school a year ago. The OL will allow sacks. The pass D% will almost certainly remain very high. Even kicking looks suspect. Perhaps a 2-0 start hosting Carolina and STL changes the equation, but I think 1-1 is a bad sign! Assuming 2-0, I think 5-4 is very much in play given the early 4th place schedule. I don’t think the NFC South title is doable thanks to some August warning signs but 7-7 is possible if all goes right, and maybe 8-8 if they split the tough closing games at home. I just can’t see another +10 turnover ratio and I’m expecting inconsistency at QB and with the OL.
Key Game: 9/7 vs. Carolina. No excuses! A loss at home to a team with roster holes is not a good sign given that Tampa has some very unfavorable scheduling situations down the road. Handicapping Tip: Week 17 in the NFL often brings unusual value, as even with some teams out of the playoffs team Power #’s have excelled. Some teams try hard week 17 (Pittsburgh, New England for example) no matter what the circumstances are. Others, such as Dallas and Tampa have not fared as well. It might be a telling sign if Tampa is a home dog on 12/28.
2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 23