It’s time once again to show where my mouth is, and if you should put money on that.

I ran through the entire schedule and went game-by-game, week-by-week. Here are the results of how these played out with my mental gymnastics.

AFC East:

The Patriots are absolutely loaded. In adding Darrelle Revis to an already strong defense, New England has the chance to suffocate opponents. They still have Tom Brady, and even though I believe he’s in decline, his weaponry is upgraded. I don’t see any way they don’t win this division by at least three games.

The Jets had a tougher schedule than it appeared on first glance. The balance of Geno Smith’s development and adding Chris Johnson helps balance out what appears to be an awful secondary. Their defensive front is great, but not great enough to carry them to the playoffs. Smith might if he clicks with Eric Decker, Jace Amaro and an overall improved supporting cast.

The Dolphins have a load of variables that makes them tough to predict. It’s do-or-die time for Ryan Tannehill and Mike Wallace, and I’m not sold that marriage works. It’s hard to not like Cameron Wake and the defensive front, but there’s not enough here to seriously challenge for a playoff spot.

The Bills are led by E.J. Manuel. No matter how much I like Robert Woods, C.J. Spiller, Sammy Watkins and a very strong defensive front four, they will go as far as Manuel takes them…and that’s no more than five wins. They wound up with four. If they switch to backup Kyle Orton, they win 45% of his starts.

AFC North:

Cincinnati makes the playoffs for the fourth straight year. This year they might even win a game in January, and it will be thanks to improvement by franchise QB Andy Dalton. Their defense still packs a mean punch and has arguably the best depth in the entire league. The offensive coordinator change suits them very well.

The Ravens get back into the playoffs thanks to a potent passing attack and an improved defensive front. The Steve Smith addition at wide receiver adds a dynamic playmaker as well as a locker room presence who will not let anyone (read: Joe Flacco) get complacent. They’ve also got outstanding punting and kicking. As long as the defensive starters stay healthy, this team comfortably wins 8-9 games.

Pittsburgh wound up 7-9 when I tallied up the games, but I gave them one extra “fudge” win because I think their offense is going to be very good…at times. So will the defense…at times. I suspect they’ll be one of the more frustrating teams to watch--and predict--because they’re bound to have some clunkers too. Rookie LB Ryan Shazier is going to be a star.

Oh Cleveland, what can I say? The Browns have the worst offensive skill position collection in the NFL, and to top that off they have a marginal backup QB starting ahead of an erratic rookie who is more celebrity than quarterback at this point. The defense has a chance to be very, very good, but that can only carry a team so far. Look for a lot of 17-13 and 16-6 losses.

AFC South:

The Colts are once again the class of the division, thanks to Andrew Luck and a defense that should be improved. The win total is deflated because of Robert Mathis’ suspension and concerns about the offensive line. Still, if Luck ever figures out how to string four good quarters together consistently this team can be the #2 seed in the conference this year.

Tennessee has a great deal of talent on both sides of the ball. They’re going to miss Alterraun Verner at corner, but their defensive front is underrated. Jake Locker has a lot on the line, but could really benefit from new coach Ken Whisenhunt. The receiving talent is strong and so is the offensive line. This is a strong playoff sleeper candidate.

Houston and Jacksonville are both teams on the rise. They both wound up 6-10 and split against one another.

The Texans defense is going to be very potent. A healthy Brian Cushing is more of a key than #1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney, though he’s certainly going to help. The Houston offense, on the other hand…Arian Foster is great for the 11.5 games he’ll play, but the depth behind him is shaky. So is QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and his negative TD/INT ratio. Trending upward but a year away.

Jacksonville is also going to be improved, and they have the added benefit of having their QB of the future already in place. Alas, Blake Bortles isn’t going to start and that caps the ceiling for his team at no more than 7 wins. The defense is adding nice pieces but needs more, and I worry about the offensive line too.

AFC West:

I don’t think these Broncos are as good as last year’s edition, but with Peyton Manning and those offensive weapons they are still incredibly skilled. I love the addition of Emmanuel Sanders at receiver. I’m skeptical that DeMarcus Ware will help the pass rush, and they’ll dearly miss Danny Trevathan for the first 6-8 weeks. They’re very good but more vulnerable than many would admit.

San Diego finished last year on a real roll, and they get back to the playoffs with a little more breathing room this year. Philip Rivers should continue to rebound, and their depth all over the offense is very strong. Their secondary is very good, while Corey Liuget is a great candidate for a breakout star up front. The schedule is brutal but they’re talented enough to manage it.

Kansas City falls back after a great 2013. That 2-6 finish including the playoff game was no fluke; teams figured out how to handle Alex Smith operating Andy Reid’s attack, and the line took a hit in losing Branden Albert. The linebacking corps remains a real strength and Dontari Poe is awesome in the middle of the defense, but the back end lacks impact.

Oakland made a smart decision to start Derek Carr, and the rookie QB gives them a better chance to remain competitive in most games. The veteran-laden defense should be adequate, though the young corners are scary. I think 5 wins is their best-case; if I went through it again I could easily justify Oakland being 2-14 with Dennis Allen fired midseason.

All AFC Team

Offense

QB: Peyton Manning, Denver

RB: Jamaal Charles, Kansas City

RB: Ryan Mathews, San Diego

WR: Demaryius Thomas, Denver

WR: A.J. Green, Cincinnati

OT: Joe Thomas, Cleveland

OT: Cordy Glenn, Buffalo

OG: Brandon Brooks, Houston

OG: Marshall Yanda, Baltimore

OC: Nick Mangold, New York

TE: Jordan Cameron, Cleveland

Defense

DT: Muhammad Wilkerson, New York

DT: Jurrell Casey, Tennessee

DE: J.J. Watt, Houston

DE/Edge: Cameron Wake, Miami

OLB: Vontaze Burfict, Cincinnati

ILB: Derrick Johnson, Kansas City

OLB/Edge: Von Miller, Denver

CB: Vontae Davis, Indianapolis

CB: Darrelle Revis, New England

S: T.J. Ward, Denver

S: Eric Weddle, San Diego

K: Justin Tucker, Baltimore

P: Pat McAfee, Indianapolis

Offensive Rookie: Derek Carr, Oakland

Defensive Rookie: Ryan Shazier, Pittsburgh 

AFC Championship: New England over Cincinnati