RealGM Analysis
Dallas Cowboys:
2013 RECORD: 8-8
2012 RECORD: 8-8
2011 RECORD: 8-8
2010 RECORD: 6-10
Team Overview: Hey campers, it’s Groundhog Day! Bill Murray would feel at home in this organization. Dallas faced another “win and in” game on prime time TV hosting Philly and fell in a close one 24-22. The Cowboys have completed the NFC East trifecta, losing “win and in” finales each of the last three years, once each to rivals Philly, Washington and the Giants. Dallas is the poster child for mediocrity, at 8-8 most recently, and about 136-136 the past 17 years. Amazingly, Jerry Jones has been patient, sticking with “coach” Garrett even though he is clearly not worthy of such a long tenure. Offensive play-calling has been suspect for years, and defensive coaching has been awful. The team appears to have salary cap issues, possibly prohibiting Jerry from making additional unwise free agency moves. There is plenty of talent at the skill positions but whether it’s coaching (yes) or miss-judged talent at other key positions such as OL, DL and in the secondary (also yes), something is preventing these Cowboys from winning a Division that has been there for the taking. What are realistic expectations for ’14?
Key Stats: Dallas kept their turnover ratio in the plus column (+8) but also kept their record in close games in the minus column. The Cowboys were 1-4 in games decided by 1 or 2 points. As most football fans know, calling appropriate plays is an adventure with Dallas. Dallas ran 4.5 yards per carry yet only averaged 94 yards per game. Most of the key indicators were minus. The pass D% was awful at 64.7%. Dallas opponents had 63 more 1st downs and 1,187 more total yards. They allowed more yards than any other Cowboy team in history. Opponents had 33 passing TD’s vs. the Cowboys. Want more numbers? They were last by plenty in total defense, tied 25th with 34 defensive sacks, and 30th on run D at 4.7. At least the kick return D was strong and the Cowboys did accrue a +5 figure for defensive and return TD’s. Unfortunately that # is likely not sustainable for ’14. Spread-wise, Dallas dropped to 3-14 if in the role of an underdog in their last game, and went 0-2 as a road favorite (now 19-36). They went 2-0 as a home dog and are now 26-7 in that role.
Free Agency and Staff News: Dallas added DL Melton, McClain and Mincey but lost DL Hatcher and Ware making this a net loss. As expected Dallas released WR Austin. Beleaguered QB Weeden is here. Past his prime Defensive Coordinator Monte Kiffin was demoted. Rod Marinelli was promoted. A splash hire would have been better.
2014 Draft: Dallas wanted DL Donald or LB Barr, but chose not to trade up for either of them. OT Martin fits as a quality OG now but the value was not as great as people think. I defer to highly respected writer Rich Gosselin about the trade up for DE Lawrence. Read his piece and you’ll see whythe expensive trade up was a mistake. Dallas was on the phone with LB Shazier’s agent when Pittsburgh took him with pick #15. On my board LB was not a need. It’s a double whammy when the player chosen (119) is unrated! WR Street fit a need, while Gardner and Dixon also hit the need board and have draft grades. Still, DB impact is missing. I would have liked to see the Cowboys be more aggressive in filling their primary needs while staying at pick 47. They could have had DL Murphy, Crichton or Jernigan, safety Brooks, and in a later small trade up, CB Desir.
Roster Analysis:
QB: Romo is an accurate QB with some crunch time issues.
RB: DeMarco Murray is a legit solid starter but is not quite durable enough. Dunbar, Randle and Ryan Williams are fine in a pinch, and I’d call the overall depth at RB fairly solid.
WR: Bryant is a clear top 10 WR and ’13 draftee Williams an emerging talent. Cole Beasley is getting great looks as the underneath/possession guy. Rookie Street is a potential #2 target in the NFL but health in college was an ongoing issue.
TE: Witten is elite, while Hanna and Escobar add solid depth
OL: Getting better each year. Rookie Zack Martin may start at RG. LG is the sore spot, while RT Doug Free runs hot and cold.
DL: NT Ratliff is gone, replace by Henry Melton, who played but one game in ‘13 and is still fighting health issues. Anthony Spencer is a solid starter when healthy but may start ’14 on the PUP list (check for updates). The next best option along the beleaguered DL may be the rookie Lawrence.
LB: Sean Lee was the Cowboy’s best defensive player. He will miss the ’14 season! Durant can play, but Bruce Carter needs to step up his game. Rookies, along with troubled Rolando McClain hope to help, but overall the LB unit is in shambles.
CB: Carr and Claiborne are the starters but Claiborne is still in learning mode and is not 100% healthy. Orlando Scandrick is the next and really last option but he has been suspended for the 1st four games.
Safety: JJ Wilcox is the long term answer but the 2nd year pro had only one year of college experience. Barry Church is the other starter, maybe by necessity as the reserves are substandard!
Special Teams: FINALLY! I asked for and got PK Bailey. Punting is average but the PR/KR options are good.
Coaching: Garrett is most assuredly below average and worse in crunch time. Callahan is offensive new play-caller. Rod Marinelli moves from DL coach to defensive coordinator.
Team Keys: Many! Can Dallas improve in the 4th quarter? Is there any hope for a defense that lost DE/OLB Ware in free agency and LB Lee to injury? Will this team ever run the ball protecting leads? Who replaces Ware in providing defensive pressure? RB Murray’s health all year long is critical as he can take over games if given the chance. As with most NFC East teams, winning the Divisional games is a must. Keifer Sutherland and the cast of “24” did return in May, but will not be on the airwaves when Dallas starts the ’14 season. Will Dallas continue in mediocrity as they have ever since Jack Bauer left the airwaves or was the just finished stellar season of “24” good enough to put Dallas back in the playoffs?
Did the preseason mean anything? Romo was not expected to be as sharp as he was last August and although his pass % was decent, the sacks he took could indicate a bit of tentativeness going into the start of the season. The run game should be fine, and better than that if 1st stringer Murray stays healthy. Of course calling more run plays would help. I like the four WR’s on the team as Devin Street is a great fit here, and Dallas goes three deep at TE. Other than play calling, the only offensive issue is the OL. Everyone knows this team has defensive issues and coaching issues as well. At least five DL are not at 100% and/or on suspension. This area is of immediate concern. Troubled LB Rolando McClain has to produce as Sean Lee is gone and the rest of the LB’s are substandard. There was no change (i.e. improvement) in the pass D%, and CB Claiborne (shoulder) and DB Scandrick (suspension) won’t make things any better. I like 2nd year safety JJ Wilcox but this unit looks to be in trouble. The return game looks average, but the return D looks poor! Watch that area closely. At least PK Bailey is ready to go. Dallas was 0-4 in August with a 15-29 point ratio. This certainly doesn’t make anyone feel more confident.
Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: Dallas usually implodes in December but this year the damage could start early. Normally, hosting SF in Week 1 would represent a solid win shot but past history for 0-4 teams, coupled with roster deficiencies have me thinking otherwise. Games 2-3 are at non-playoff teams Tennessee and STL. Both teams have issues, yet it is hard to predict anything more than 1-1. Even if Dallas were favored in these games the Cowboys are just 19 of 55 lately as a road favorite against the spread. Turf challenged Houston takes the short trip to Dallas 10/5. The goal would be to win this game and be 3-2 heading to Seattle. Is that realistic? Games 7-9 are all at home. The Cowboys are just 22-18 the last five seasons at home, and that kind of “success’ does not usually translate into making the playoffs. Dallas not only needs to win at home, but needs to win its Divisional home games to have any chance at making game 16 relevant. It’s possible that many of their remaining road games will be played in cold weather, something Romo and the Cowboys have not always thrived in. Dallas has won over 50% of the time at the Giants, won five of the last seven at Philly and four of the last six at Washington. Is this team good enough to go 2-1 on the road in the Division? If so, the Cowboys can stay in contention in the fragile NFC East.
Bottom Line: It’s all about coaching. That’s what I usually say, but this year, player health is an issue. Add in a suspect defense and a potentially poor return game defense and Dallas does not look playoff worthy. I see about 2-4 heading to their critical three game home stand and a solid chance to get to 5-5 before heading to the Giants. I’ll give them 7-9, but can’t give them any more as I expect the usual 4th quarter coaching failures and I see a defense that is bottom three in the NFL. Optimists will point to the return of Jack Bauer and “24” as the reason why Dallas will make the playoffs. I’ve always included references to that fantastic TV show in my Dallas previews, and perhaps not coincidentally Dallas last made the playoffs when Jack Bauer was on the air. Pessimists will say that sure, “24” returned and was fantastic, but they deliberately ran its season in the Spring/Summer to avoid the NFL football season and any inference that this was a playoff team. Given the 0-4 August record (9% of teams who go 0-4 in August make the playoffs), I fall on the pessimist side of the story. Could this be an even worse season than bargained for?
Key Games: 9/7 hosting SF. SF has its own issues with injuries and suspensions. A win here gives them confidence heading into Tennessee. The three game home stand. Dallas needs to be at least 2-1 hosting the Giants, Washington and Arizona to make games 11-16 relevant. Handicapping Tip: Don’t expect miracles with Romo not 100% and a beat up defense. Dallas has been 4-13 against the spread as a dog in their final game. Look for ways to play against Dallas in these types of situations as well as vs. teams who can score plenty of points vs. their beleaguered defense.
2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 23
New York Giants:
2013 RECORD: 7-9
2012 RECORD: 9-7
2011 RECORD: 9-7
2010 RECORD: 10-6
Team Overview: That was ugly! The Giants started 0-6 and had an incredible -16 turnover ratio after those six games. Eli Manning was 123-229 with a 9-15 TD-int ratio and the run game was non-existent at 68 yards per game. Add in a 5-16 sack ratio and one could see that 0-6 was much deserved. The Giants rallied to finish 7-9 but maybe that record was misleading. The turnover ratio remained high as Eli finished with an NFL high 27 picks. Sacks on Eli doubled from ’12 (20 to 40). RB Brown returned from injury but ran only 139-502 for the year. Moving up in the NFC East is not that difficult but the Giants need help/impact defensively along with a return to form from its two-time Super Bowl champion QB.
Key Stats: The Giants scored just 294 points in ’13, meaning that they finished the season with a -89 point ratio. 7-9 teams generally are far closer to “flat” in their point ratio so therefore the Giants start ’14 with a – point ratio. That being said, the Giants allowed just 17.6 point per game from week seven on out. The run O regressed to near the bottom but the real culprit was the 29 interceptions they threw. The Giants were -15 in turnover ratio and -12 in interceptions. This impacted 3rd downs, where the Giants were successful under 33% of the time. The defense wasn’t bad as it finished 8th overall in yards allowed and got the run D way down from ’12 levels to a tie for 4th at 3.8 per carry. Defensive sacks have lagged however for two straight years at 33 in ’12 and 34 last year. The Giants were unlucky that opposing kickers hit 29 of 30. The punt return D needs work (30th). Spread-wise, the Giants have had some situational road plusses and were about even on the road in ’13. They dropped to 15-9 off 3 consecutive losses (0-1). They are 10-21 MNF when not a home favorite, and are 7-6 as a MNF home favorite.
Free Agency and Staff Notes: I’ve never seen the Giants this active in free agency. RB Rashad Jennings is a nice addition. WR Nicks could be missed. There has been massive change along the OL, but the players lost and gained changed teams for a reason. Perhaps newcomer Geoff Schwartz is the best of the bunch. The top two TE’s are gone! The DL lost Tuck and Joseph, while adding Robert Ayers. Jameel McClain is in at LB but Keith Rivers is out. Adding Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Walter Thurmond at DB is a bit of an upgrade. Zach Bowman offers rotational DB support. The return game may benefit from safety/return specialist Demps and the super speedy but fumble prone Holiday. Ben McAdoo (Green Bay) replaces Kevin Gilbride as Offensive Coordinator. He was their QB coach. Eli Manning will get a double dose of advice in ’14 as longtime OSU Beaver Coordinator and QB coach Danny Langdorf was hired this past January.
2014 DRAFT: The Giants had to shift gears once TE Ebron and OT Lewan were selected at picks 10 and 11. They drafted the resourceful Beckham, once again ignoring as one columnist put it, “longstanding needs at LB’. Bromley is not a sack specialist per se, but more of a rotational blue collar grinder that fits the typical Giants profile. I give the Giants credit for addressing needs. All picks in the late rounds fit the typical Giants profile. For myself and some others, we’re used to this, but this is now the 6th year in a row LB needs were ignored, and this time completely ignored. Pick 174 was compensatory. The Giants lost their 7th round pick when they traded for LB Beason. NOTE: The Giants signed my #13 DT Quarles * DE Wynn after the draft. Quarles played opposite Clowney and surprisingly was not drafted. He came out early but has the skill set if properly motivated. Wynn started three years at DE for Richmond but like Kennard, might not be able to stay there and protect the edge. His skill set and rating is similar however. As for TE, Tom Coughlin said there were so few quality TE’s in this class. He could have had one at 43. I might have gone with LB Mosley at #12 and TE Amaro at #43! Bromley was a surprise in 3rd round, even to himself! He was at a grocery store, picking up some juice and renting a movie. He was hoping he would be drafted! Other options would be a WR in the 2nd or 3rd round or even a sack specialist. Perhaps their best pick might be RB Williams, who fits this team perfectly.
Roster Analysis:
QB: Eli Manning may have plateaued as a QB but is still a top 10 option in the 4th quarter. The back-ups are poor.
RB: With Wilson’s forced retirement the job could fall to either Jennings or the rookie Williams. Both have solid upside.
WR: Beckham will battle Randle for the #2 spot opposite Cruz. The rest of the unit is below par.
TE: A sore spot. Adrian Robinson has the most, and only upside. Kellen Davis and Daniel Fells just take up space.
OL: A developing story. How healthy is Chris Snee? Schwartz is the new LG. LT Beatty is average. Richburg will eventually unseat someone along the OL and it could be this year for OC Walton who is not one of the better NFL starters.
DL: Pierre-Paul made just six starts in ’13. Hankins is a starter, ready or not. Ayers and Jenkins are average. I like the overall depth along the DL but the unit will only thrive if Pierre-Paul is 100% healthy.
LB: Poor and it’s their fault! Beason is good but not 100%. Rookie Kennard may need to move to OLB. This needs fixing.
CB: Amukamara is the fixture, with newcomers Rodgers-Cromartie and Thurmond the other viable options.
Safety: Rolle led the team in tackles. Stevie Brown is the only other starting option and that is downright scary.
Special Teams: Most of the units grade out about average. Maybe return specialist Demps can change that for the better.
Coaching: HC Coughlin is one of the best at understanding line play. DC Fenwell is decent but the pass D stats are never elite. He just needs to find more pass rushers. New OC Ben McAdoo will shake things up, and that could be good or bad.
Team Keys: The Giants had a tough time as expected repeating their +14 turnover ratio. They were -15 for the year. The new offensive scheme may help find them some “free” points. The point O was 18 per game in ’13. That has to change. The run D lived at about 4.5 until going 3.8 in ’13. Is that sustainable? Ultimately, a big key is Eli Manning. He tends to play poorly in the 1st quarter, making them constantly fall behind. That 57% completion figure is way too low. Finally, can the rebuilt OL reduce sacks? Will there be any production at all from their substandard TE’s?
Did the preseason mean anything? The Giants were a perfect 5-0 in July/August but unlike winless teams, 5-0 is not so much of a guarantee of real season success, especially if there is a game one loss. Still, the defense put out some solid numbers. One notable performance was the play of 2nd year DL Moore and his four sacks. The entire DL looks pretty solid. Things are both good and bad on offense. The good news is that the run game might be ready to return to form after having a pair of below par seasons. This should help reduce turnovers, which were -15 a year ago. The bad news is that the new scheme is not yet working. Eli Manning was supposed to use this new scheme to reduce turnovers and sacks while increasing his pass %. He was 20-41 with no interceptions but five sacks taken! Part of the problem may be that Eli has just two decent WR’s and no viable TE unless Adrian Robinson can blossom. Is that enough? Right now the return game looks unsettled.
Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: The Giants open at Detroit. They beat the Lions there in overtime in ’13. That game is on a Monday night, so they will have a shorter work week to prepare for Arizona. On 9/25 they play at Washington, a place they have played well at. Unfortunately for the NYG it will be their 4th game in a 17 day stretch which seems a bit unfair at the start of a season. The good news is having 10 days off after that game, and 15 days off not long after that. The NYG have actually not played well off rest but at least they can get healthy with these large breaks. Games 5-11 will test their pass D as they will face Matt Ryan, Tony Romo (twice), Andrew Luck, Nick Foles, Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick. Can they start 2-2 even with the four games in 17 days? Less than that and it will mean another uphill battle. They play SF and Dallas at home 11/16 and 11/23. I expect at least a split here as they match up well with SF and Dallas appears to be quite vulnerable in ’14. Late road games are all winnable as they travel to Jacksonville, Tennessee and STL. Perhaps that closing game hosting Philly will be for the NFC East title? The NYG are an outstanding last game home team but just 9-17 straight up hosting the Eagles. Which way will this game go?
Bottom Line: Survive and advance. The NYG must put more pressure on opposing QB’s. They must also find a way to learn the new offense as quickly as possible. Games 1-10 are difficult and I think 4-6 is what they will end up with, assuming turnovers are cut down! They look about 7-7 before closing at STL and home to Philly. I’d love to predict more given that the -15 turnover ratio will improve, but I don’t see Eli stretching the field with so few viable targets.
Key Games: Any NFC East game is critical. Other than that, games hosting Arizona (9/14) and Atlanta (10/5) are must wins for morale sake. The NYG started 0-6 a year ago. They can’t afford to fall behind again. Handicapping Tip: The NYG have not been a good home underdog on MNF. They face Andrew Luck and Indy 11/3 and the Colts have been one of the better road teams in the NFL.
2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 24
Philadelphia Eagles:
2013 RECORD: 10-6
2012 RECORD: 4-12
2011 RECORD: 8-8
2010 RECORD: 10-6
Team Overview: Faced with a rather unfair schedule to start ’13, Philly survived and in the end, thrived. The bandwagon was full after they upset Washington in the MNF road opener, but seats were available after they dropped to 1-3, and especially after they stood at 3-5 following home losses in the Division to rivals Dallas and the NYG. True, they only beat one playoff team after that, and it was a GB team without Aaron Rodgers, but Philly was a team on the right track after winning the Division on the road at Dallas. The close playoff loss hosting New Orleans only temporarily dampened spirits as the needle looks like it’s pointing up. Chip Kelly is a different kind of NFL HC and maybe similar to Seattle and Pete Carroll, Chip’s roster is just in the early stages of a major overhaul. Kelly’s schemes require a different set of player characteristics and that’s what makes his story interesting.
Key Stats: Philly scored 442 points, good enough for 4th in the NFL. As usual they were strong on the road, going 6-2. The run O is usually a plus and even without much of Michael Vick the Eagles were #1 in the NFL at 5.1-160.4! As suspected, RB McCoy was able to thrive in this offense. In yardage the Eagles were #2 in the NFL. Chip Kelly had no chance to ease into the NFL with an extremely unfair three games in 11 days, followed by games 4-6 all on the road at Denver, the NYG and Tampa. The run O was a respectable 4.05 after game #6 and improved even more after that, finishing 4th at 3.8. The pass D was 63% at that point but finished under 61%. The big turnaround came in the turnover ratio which went from -24 in ’12 to +12 last season. Kelly’s fast-paced offense did lead to a -7:11 time of possession #, meaning Philly will have to look for depth and athleticism all over the defense. Philly was 29th in yards allowed. One area needing improvement is pass protection as the Eagles allowed 46 sacks. Spread-wise, Philly’s long term trends did not regress much when 4-12 in ’12 and were good in ’13. They are now 28-9 on the road after a loss (1-1 in ’13), 24-9 after 2 straight spread losses (2-1), 55-27 as a non-Division road dog (2-1), 27-13 in domes (80% as a dog in domes), 10-21 in home openers (0-1), and 21-33 if favored by 7+ points (0-1).
Free Agency and Staff Notes:Philly traded for RB Sproles which will further diversify their offense. WR Avant left, but the big news was cutting ties with disruptive WR D. Jackson. He will be missed on the field but not in the locker room. A trio of safeties left but Malcolm Jenkins gives them starting power. Mike Vick is now a Jet and ex-Jet Mark Sanchez is now an Eagle.
2014 Draft: My Intel had the Eagles drafting the super-fast Marcus Smith, but not in the 1st round. At least they traded down, getting a more than fair 3rd round pick in the draft. That pick was later traded as this time around Chip Kelly was as expected far more active in his 2nd go-around in the NFL draft. His next trade was golden, moving UP to get Jordan Matthews. WR Huff was the 1st of two players from Kelly’s former Oregon team. All of their top level needs were covered to some extent. NOTE: Kelly wanted college graduates, and WR Matthews was the only top 16 WR with a degree. Kelly was hoping for Brandin Cooks. I would have taken safety Brooks over Huff and gone after a higher rated WR later on.
Roster Analysis:
QB: Foles was exceptional in ’13. I think the deep ball will suffer without Jackson. Sanchez should be fine as the #2 guy.
RB: McCoy is excellent and Sproles is so versatile that more matchup situations favoring the Eagles can be expected. Polk is a nice 3rd option and he should be 100% healthy. I rated UFA RB Josey (great yards-per-carry) and he could make the team.
WR: Maclin missed ’13 so essentially he’s back and Jackson isn’t. Cooper had a strong ’13 season. There are several more veteran WR’s still on the squad but rookies Matthews and Huff may end up being the next two in the mix.
TE: Ertz and Celek combined for 70 catches and 10 TD’s in ’13. More of the same should be expected.
OL: The Eagles allowed 46 sacks in ’13 so there is room for improvement. RT Lane Johnson will miss games 1-4. RG is the weak link, but the whole right side must pass protect better. Depth is non-existent.
DL: Here I see depth, but not greatness among the starters. The unit improved vs. the run so credit must be given.
LB: The unit goes six deep with starters Barwin, Kendricks, Ryans and Cole and reserves Graham and rookie Marcus Smith. All six may be better than any of the NYG LB’s.
CB: The entire secondary was new in ’13. Fletcher and Cary Williams will start with Boykin and rookie Watkins in reserve.
Safety: Poor in ’12, and poor again in ’13. Nate Allen remains as one starter with Malcolm Jenkins the likely 2nd starter. Ed Reynolds should challenge Earl Wolff for the #3 spot, with rookie Watkins versatile enough to assist if necessary.
Special Teams: The kicking game is average and both guys are on the hot seat. Josh Huff will join incumbent Demaris Johnson in the return game.
Coaching: I’d call Chip Kelly’s debut a success, but there’s certainly room for growth. His OC and DC are fairly average!
Team Keys: The turnover ratio went from -24 to +12, a change of 126 points. That won’t be repeated. How will Kelly use Sproles? With a full year of film on Foles will opposing defenses figure him out? Can the secondary improve enough to get the pass D% under 60%. Can the OL do more than just run block?
Did the preseason mean anything? Nick Foles threw two interceptions all of ’13. He had three in August but did hit nearly 69% and that is expected to continue. The run game in this scheme will continue to be strong. I expect 2nd year TE Ertz to have a bigger role in ’14 and maybe catch more passes than Brent Celek. Ertz caught 8 in August. Can WR Maclin return to form? Deep threat WR Jackson is gone. Cooper and of course Jordan Matthews add depth. I’m not sure what impact Matthews will have as a rookie but for nine months I’ve been telling all fellow draft/NFL analysts about him. He caught 15 in August. Philly allowed 46 sacks in ’13. They allowed just 3 in August. OT Johnson will be suspended games 1-4. Defensive numbers were nothing special. Preseason games are usually low scoring but Philly games averaged nearly 59 per outing! I want to bump up defensive sacks in year #2 for Chip Kelly but there is no real evidence that they will go up. The return game looks to be above average. Rookie PK Cody Parkey won the job after hitting two 50+ field goals in game #4.
Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: No team and new staff had a tougher schedule to start ’13. The early slate included three games in 11 days, followed by a three game road trip. This time around the Eagles open with four of six at home, and four of six vs. teams who missed the ’13 playoffs. The 1st three home games are vs. Jacksonville, Washington and STL. We’ll know by the time they host the NYG whether or not the Eagles are underachieving at home. One of the better MNF games will take place 11/10 when the Eagles host Carolina. How will Philly play in that game, and in the next game at GB with one less day of preparation? Philly is not always reliable when installed as a touchdown or more favorite at home. Is the game hosting Tennessee 11/23 a “trap” between more marquee games at GB and at Dallas? By the way, that’s the dreaded three games in 11 days once again. The ending schedule is home to Seattle and Dallas and on the road at Washington and the NYG. That makes for quite an interesting December. I’ll be checking to see if Foles can repeat his fine ’13 efforts, if the OL and DL exceed expectations, and if the +12 turnover ratio from a year ago is a distant memory. Storylines for Eagle games start with week three when Philly hosts Washington and former Eagle WR Jackson. This could get emotional in front of the rabid Eagle fans. The 10/26 game at Arizona (meeting for the 4th straight year) could get a bit testy as the two coaches traded insults in their initial meeting a year ago. On 11/2 the Eagles travel to Houston, the place where former Texan’s Ryans and Barwin used to play. It’s also interesting that Philly won’t face Dallas until Turkey day, but then they will face off again just 17 days later.
Bottom Line: I want to say Philly can run away and hide from these Divisional rivals but something scares me. Perhaps it is the turnover ratio. A +2 turnover ratio means 35 free points are lost. Maybe it’s the schedule, which is a 1st place and not a 4th place schedule this time around. I think the defensive numbers will be middle of the road. Nick Foles will play well in this system but it is unrealistic to think he can improve upon ’13 #’s. Maybe they are only 7-6 not counting December games hosting Seattle and at Washington and the NYG? If so, they could be all out to win the NFC East title. Even if they can win 10 games a playoff bye may be just out of reach.
Key Games: I can’t really find one key game. I’ll say they need to be at least 3-1 in their opening, easier 1st four home games. After that, I’ll take a flyer on 11/23 hosting Tennessee. The last time they hosted the Titans they lost 31-13 as a 13 point dog. This is a “trap” game that they have to take seriously. Handicapping Tip: Philly is 22-30 against the number as a home favorite of over 7 points. That’s not an overwhelming statistic, but coupled with the trap situation as noted above it is enough to have me looking at Tennessee on 11/23.
2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 27.5
Washington Redskins:
2013 RECORD: 3-13
2012 RECORD: 10-6
2011 RECORD: 5-11
2010 RECORD: 6-10
Team Overview: Mike Shanahan, or as I call him, “the ruler of all things” is gone! After many an argument with NFL writers and the like, perhaps people are finally realizing how very mediocre of a coach he has been! Mike gets credit in my eyes for just one thing, having a superb knack for recognizing and developing running back talent. There is nothing else he does well, from people management (which rubs off to his son), to coaching hires, to strategy/late game management and to managing a draft board. Of course that’s not the only issue new HC Jay Gruden will face. His owner spends money in free agency for players that either are not worth the $$$ or are classic underachievers (Albert Haynesworth comes to mind). He’s keeping DC Haslett who once was considered at least an acceptable coach but lately has gone blitz happy, even when down and distance dictates just making a stop underneath and forcing a punt! As for recent drafts, the Redskins have drafted a series of lower rated players at positions such as OL and DB while completely ignoring age issues at other positions. No one is to blame for how the start of ’13 played out, as RG III himself was not at all 100% ready to play. He should be good to go in September, so now it’s up to the new regime to draft better players around him and design a scheme that maximizes his talent. Anything is possible in the wild NFC East, but it’s clearly time for Washington to do a far better job in talent evaluation.
Key Stats: Washington reverted back to past Divisional woes, going 0-6 vs. NFC East rivals. They were tied for 30th in points allowed thanks to a failed blitz scheme. They ended ’13 on an eight game losing streak. Amazingly, the 3rd down conversion rate for opponents was just 34%. The ’12 pass D was 61.8%, the 4th straight year over 60%. In ’13 the number rose to a poor 65.6%, with 29 pass TD’s allowed! Washington allowed 59 TD’s. Shanahan’s run O was great as usual at 4.8-135. Washington was adequate in kick return D but last in punt return D, allowing 16.8 per return and three TD’s! Spread-wise, the Redskins fell to 46-22 as a grass road dog and 31-19 as a road dog vs. the AFC. They love RG III in DC. In ’12 he was 4-3-1 against the spread at home, including 2-2 as a home favorite. In ’13 he was 0-2 as a home favorite and 2-5 overall, with Cousins 1-0 as a home dog. Washington is now 58-78 as a home favorite. The loss at the NYG put them at 8-14 against the spread in their last road game. They are 18-32 (0-2) in the 2nd of back-to-back road games and remain 6-15 in MNF road games.
Free Agency and Staff Notes: Washington initially added very good WR Andre Roberts to play alongside Pierre Garcon. Roberts himself was quite miffed when they later added volatile DeSean Jackson but clearly this team has elevated its pass catching unit. DT Jason Hatcher could help up front. 38 year old London Fletcher retired. Three LB’s including Akeem Jordan and Darryl Sharpton come in, but this won’t be a game changer. Tracy Porter adds CB depth, but his game was off in ’13. Ryan Clark may have lost a step but the safety is an upgrade for this team. For reasons unknown to many, Colt McCoy was signed and becomes their 4th QB. Jay Gruden promoted Tight Ends coach Sean McVay to offensive coordinator but look for Gruden himself to have a big hand in the offense. For some reason Jim Haslett was retained as defensive coordinator.
2014 Draft: Washington paid the price in more ways than one when they slumped to 3-13. The penalty was giving up the 2nd overall pick in the draft as final payment for RG III, costing them an opportunity to draft an impact player. There’s a great line from one of the seasons of the extraordinary TV show “24”, where a high ranking official utters the line, “well, that’s done” after an interesting compromise situation takes place. The focus was good in rounds 2-3, but OG Long was overdrafted. Washington exited this draft with just one rated OL, no ILB, and just a * rated DB. Was it that hard to meet these needs? I thought the Shanahan “error” was over but Washington drafted another RB at 186. I like the potential and value of Seastrunk but was surprised Washington looked at this position. I’m also a fan of WR Grant but he too was selected at the expense of other needs.
Roster Analysis:
QB: RG III. Can he stay healthy? As it turned out, drafting Cousins with RG III was a good insurance policy for this team.
RB: Deep, to no one’s surprise. I do wonder if the impact will be the same without Mike Shanahan.
WR: Garcon, Jackson and Roberts make this a strong unit. Hankerson, Moss, Robinson and Grant can all contribute.
TE: Jordan Reed has breakout ability. There’s depth here too!
OL: Deep, but NOT talented! LT Williams is a keeper but all other the starters are expendable. Too many incorrect OL draft choices stunted any growth.
DL: Haslett craves a stud NT, but Coefield is not a space-eater. The names at DE are Bowen, Hatcher and Jenkins. There is nothing scary about this group.
LB: Orakpo needs to stay healthy. Right now he is not 100%. Kerrigan and rookie Murphy add to the OLB depth. ILB Riley led the team in tackles but is basically just an average starter. Keenan Robinson or Akeem Jordan look to replace Fletcher, meaning ILB play is going to be average at best.
CB: Hall’s nickname should be toast! Amerson has promise. Tracy Porter is average. Two youngsters add depth.
Safety: Four can play, with Ryan Clark taking over at FS alongside Brandon Meriweather.
Special Teams: Forbath and rookie Hocker are fighting for the PK job. The return game is unsettled. The PR D must be fixed.
Coaching: Jay Gruden is the new head coach. It’s unknown how effective he will be right out of the gate but at least he has some people skills! He’ll work closely with new OC Sean McVay. DC Jim Haslett was retained but needs to blitz LESS! Everywhere “coach” Bob Slowik has been the team regressed. Washington consistently had <60% pass D’s prior to his arrival. He was the new LB coach in ’12 and the DB coach in ‘13. He’s a 4 time EX-DC, and just as bad as a position coach. He’s gone now. Is this addition by subtraction?
Team Keys: The progression of RG III, armed with a better head coach and lots of WR’s. Close game kicking, especially if the rookie wins the job. Playing smarter on defense with more attention paid to down and distance and less risky play calling. That might help to reduce the NFL’s 31st worst point D. How good are the current DL players? After going 0-8 to end ’13 getting that 1st taste of victory is also very important. Can Washington play better inside the Division?
Did the preseason mean anything? Washington played far better defense this August. The run D was at 3.1 and the pass D a bit better than usual at 60%. Sacks were up to 13, with the starters doing some damage. I think most of the key defensive guys got in solid preseason work. With Shanahan gone I fully expect a run O regression. Alfred Morris is the lead RB but I expect his yards-per-carry average to decline. If healthy, the WR group is deep. I’m a fan of Ryan Grant but didn’t understand why Washington drafted him considering all that depth. Of course this is Washington, so I expect draft mistakes. Grant caught 15 and couldn’t be cut. The OL has to be watched closely. RG III was 13-20 with two interceptions and four sacks. I don’t like the looks of that. As of this writing Koi Forbath won the kicking job. Punting will be average at best. Watch who returns kicks and punts in September, as this looks like a work in progress.
Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: Washington enters ’14 with plenty of questions, but gets the luxury of facing Houston, Jacksonville and the NYG early and these teams have even more areas of concern. With RG III healthy, my only question is the chemistry and body language between him and the coaching staff should things not go as planned! 3-1 may be a solid start, but that could turn into 3-3 after hosting Seattle on MNF and going to Arizona on short rest. The schedule maker did Washington no favors in weeks 8-9, as once again a critical Monday Night game (Dallas) is followed by a short week road game (Minny). That game pits the two former Cincy coordinators (Gruden, Zimmer) turned head coaches against each other. Unlike other analysts, I dislike the late bye for a brand new head coach. Corrections will now be made, but will it be too late? On 11/30 the top two picks in the ’12 draft square off as Indy and QB Luck host RG III. If Washington is still in the hunt it helps that a) all their prime time games will have already taken place in weeks 1-8, and b) games 14-16 are all inside the Division. Washington will host Dallas in the finale with an extra day’s rest thanks to a game 15 Saturday matchup at home vs. Philly.
Bottom Line: Washington is often very streaky, plus or minus. That makes analyzing win totals on a week to week basis hard, but I see them about 4-5 before hosting Tampa. A win there is essential. If I’m right they may be just 5-7 heading into December. That would give them a legit shot at 8-8 or even 9-7. My 1st pass through was 7-9 as the ceiling. Why could this be better? They have better coaching, a chance to erase a -9 turnover ratio, a 4th place and not a 1st place schedule and WR depth. If DC Haslett controls his blitz scheme then points allowed will go down. Holding them back is a reduced run game, special team uncertainty and an unknown pass D%. Let’s also not forget that Washington has a leaky OL thanks to ineffective drafting going back several years. How special is RG III? Let’s find out.
Key Games: 9/7 at Houston, 9/14 hosting Jacksonville and 9/25 hosting the NYG. I don’t doubt that this streaky team can’t go on a late season roll, but the bye week is too late to make corrections so they can’t afford to start slowly. Anything less than 2-1 in these games would be a bad sign. Handicapping Tip: Washington is just 4-18 against the spread after playing on MNF and 18-31 against the spread in their 2nd straight road game. Both those factors come into play 11/2 when they play at Minnesota.
2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 23.5