2013: 5-10-1, last in NFC North

2014 Over/Under: +/- 6.5 wins

Why the over

There is a lot to like with these Bills on both sides of the ball. While lacking true star power, both the offense and defense have several Pro Bowl-caliber talents and nice pieces that do seem as if they can fit together nicely.

Offensively, the weaponry is very impressive. C.J. Spiller is a versatile threat at running back, an accomplished receiver as well as an effective speed back. He averages over 5.0 yards per carry for his career, and he can build upon his nearly 3,000 yards of combined offense over the last two seasons.

Adding Sammy Watkins at wide receiver helps transform the entire offense. He’s a legit #1 wideout and could prove to be that lofty right away. His blend of speed, body control, hands and field smarts should make him an instant impact player.

Watkins’ presence pushes everyone else on the receiver depth chart to where they can thrive. I’m not a big Mike Williams fan, but the former Buccaneer can be an excellent foil to Watkins. He plays big for his size and has soft hands. If he buys in--which is an ongoing issue for Williams--he provides a solid downfield target and possession receiver with sizzle.

Robert Woods, a 2nd round pick from USC last year, appears poised to make a jump forward in his progress. He can play either in the slot or outside, which is where he’s received most of his camp reps. He’s athletic with reliable hands and can make the first tackler miss in space. He’s bumped outside more because the team is very high on young slot man Chris Hogan, a former Monmouth fullback who is coming into his own after time on the practice squad. He’s nifty and tough.

The receiving corps is strong enough with special teams standout Marcus Easley thrown in that 2012 3rd round pick T.J. Graham is probably not going to make the team.

Fred Jackson is a strong change-up back to pair with Spiller, when the veteran can stay healthy. He played all 16 games last year, catching 47 passes and finding the end zone a combined 10 times. Anthony Dixon and to a lesser extent Bryce Brown offers the Bills some useful depth in the backfield. Dixon is very good at maintaining his speed and balance through contact and could emerge as a strong short-yardage back.

The core of the offensive line has talent. Cordy Glenn is a massive left tackle with good instincts and decent footwork. He’s got Pro Bowl potential in 2014. Eric Wood and Kraig Urbik are an effective C/RG tandem that opens holes and does a great job keeping interior pressure off the quarterback.

A couple of rookies could positively impact the front. They took tackle Cyrus Kouandjio in the second round, but he’s the least likely of the three to do anything positive thanks to balky knees that got him removed from many draft boards. Fourth round guard Cyril Richardson has potential to be a very effective run blocking force, though he must widen his base stance; if he can learn to not set up so narrow and negate his natural strength, he could be a real good left guard.

Then there’s enigmatic 7th rounder Seantrel Henderson. He’s a legit 1st round talent when he has his head on straight and plays with passion…which happened about a quarter of the time in his college career at Miami. If Henderson can check his considerable baggage at the door, I strongly believe the Bills have themselves a Pro Bowl right tackle.

Tight end Scott Chandler is a solid two-way end, a reliable receiver who blocks better than most at his position. Backup Lee Smith is an even better blocker who lines up as H-back quite a bit. He caught just 5 balls last year, however, and that might be more than he does in ’14.

The strength of the defense is the front, where Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus have the potential to be a wrecking crew inside. Williams is one of the most underrated talents in the game, a nonstop gap attacker who has enough burst to chase down plays behind the line and the balance and strength to finish the play. Dareus has improved at playing the run on his way to the quarterback, and still he bagged 7.5 sacks.

The key here is Mario Williams, who will thrive under new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. Williams was very good a year ago with 13 sacks, up from 10.5 in his first Buffalo season. He’s got the complete physical package to tick up to 15 this year, and he could wind up leading the league in plays behind the line of scrimmage. In Schwartz’s scheme he won’t have to worry about doing anything but attacking and moving forward, which helps cover his poor spatial awareness.

The other ends are Jerry Hughes and Manny Lawson, both of whom are one-dimensional pass rushers. Hughes has finally shed the draft bust label after bulking up and learning to use his hands in concert with his incredible first step. He’s a great balance to Williams. Lawson fits nicely as the third end.

The Bills have two first-round picks as the starting corners, to mixed results. Stephon Gillmore and Leodis McKelvin are both good-not-great players. Gillmore is overhyped but has excellent ability to redirect at the line and turn-and-run with receivers. He’s very aggressive in going after the ball, with 26 career PDs in just 25 starts. The downside is he also has 21 penalties and is a major sucker for play action. He’s a confident playmaker, a must-have in today’s NFL.

McKelvin isn’t as inherently sticky as Gillmore, but he plays a more disciplined and patient style. He’s also been an accomplished return man, and if he gets his hands on the football he can score some points for the defense. Together they offer potential to be a very solid 1-2 punch at CB.

I like a lot of the young talent amassed in the secondary. Duke Williams is a thumper of a strong safety with great closing burst. Rookies Kenny Ladler and Ross Cockrell both had solid college tape that showed real NFL skills with ceilings as functional starters. Nickell Roby is very short at 5’7” but has proven to be game as a slot corner. The pipeline is flowing, though the best days are probably a year or two away from gushing.

Why the under

E.J. Manuel is the franchise quarterback.

There really isn’t a need to write much more than that. He’s the worst starting quarterback in the league at this point. Don’t just take my word for it…

I know it’s reckless to put too much stock into a few preseason games, but with Manuel I did not see one iota of progress from the faults that plagued him in his rookie season. He still plays as if he’s wearing a neck brace. He doesn’t survey the field and has to rotate his entire body to make a progression. There just isn’t time for that in the NFL, and defenses will continue to sit and then jump to where he’s looking. He’s also not a thrower but rather an aimer. That’s not going to change quickly, folks.

It would be helpful if the Bills had a veteran mentor for Manuel, or even a legit backup to push him or afford more developmental time. They have neither. Jeff Tuel brings energy and agility but has no experience and a subpar arm. Thad Lewis couldn’t beat out Kellen Moore to be Detroit’s 3rd stringer last year, and if you think I’m harsh on Manuel you should ask me about Mr. Moore sometime…

The defense took a major hit in losing top tackler Kiko Alonso. The rangy, savvy linebacker was the beneficiary of some stat padding, but even so he was already one of the most reliable tacklers in the league as a rookie. Alonso was also very adept in coverage, and they’re hurt even deeper here because Arthur Moats is now in Pittsburgh.

Rookie Preston Brown can help some here, but coverage is not his strong suit and he had some stiffness and range issues at Louisville. Coverage is the weakest part of Spikes’ game, too. They do have some intriguing athletic potential, but Alonso is an all-around talent that just cannot be replaced.

The secondary probably concerns me more than it should. Some of that is that McKelvin and Gillmore so seldom play well at the same time. Some is a function of losing stud safety Jarius Byrd, one of the best in the game. They have a functional replacement in Da’Norris Searcy and a youngster I really like in Duke Williams, but they are largely unproven commodities.

The depth behind the starters on both lines is paper thin. Doug Legursky can play guard or center in a pinch but belongs as a gameday inactive. If Henderson keeps his head on straight the tackle depth is at least okay, but it’s tough to buy into that at this point. Defensively it’s even spottier, where Ohio Bobcat journeyman Landon Cohen is the best reserve. He’s had a strong preseason and fits Jim Schwartz’s defense well, but he’s never done much in his bouncy NFL tenure.

Special teams are also an issue. Only Washington finished with a lower aggregate special teams grade from Pro Football Focus (subscription required) than Buffalo’s -22.0 score. This starts at the top with coordinator Danny Crossman, who had atrocious units in Detroit (his units were directly responsible for 3 losses in 2012) before taking his talents to the other end of Lake Erie. Punter Brian Moorman is coming off a down year and at 38 it’s questionable if he can climb back up. Don’t expect much improvement.

Forecast

The Bills have a lengthy playoff drought, the only NFL team that has not appeared in the postseason in the 2000s. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but that drought is not getting quenched as long as E.J. Manuel is the quarterback. Even though they’ve got an impressive cadre of weapons and a solid line, Manuel is the governor on the engine that keeps the team from speeding forward.

The defense is good enough to keep the team in most games, so the handful of times where Manuel doesn’t look awful figure to be convincing wins. Yet the schedule is not favorable. The non-divisional slate is the high-flying NFC North, where games will be won by the first team to score 30, and the AFC West that put three teams in the playoffs last year. The “easy” teams on the schedule (OAK, HOU) are roadies.

With the line at 6.5, I’m strongly investing in the under. I’d consider betting the under at 4.5. There doesn’t appear to be more than 4 wins to be found, barring the skill players on offense all being otherworldly. This team will earn a top-3 overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft…which they’ve already traded away. Buffalo finishes 3-13.