Tight Ends

Tier 1: Jimmy Graham

Tier 2: Julius Thomas, Rob Gronkowski

Tier 3: Jordan Cameron, Vernon Davis, Jason Witten

Tier 4: Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed, Dennis Pitta, Kyle Rudolph, Ladarius Green, Zach Ertz, Martellus Bennett, Charles Clay

Tier 5: Delanie Walker, Antonio Gates, Jared Cook, Dwayne Allen, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Eric Ebron, Tyler Eifert, Heath Miller, Garrett Graham, Coby Fleener,

Tier 6: Jace Amaro, Brandon Pettigrew, Jermaine Gresham

* Players in bold are those players that I expect to significantly outperform their average draft position based on current ADP.

Analysis

The TE board resembles the QB board in that we have a distinct top 3 (albeit split into two tiers), followed by a deep group of solid options. No questions asked, Jimmy Graham sits alone in the top tier. Gronk would join him if not for his inability to stay healthy. Julius Thomas broke out last season, but will face tougher sledding with his schedule this year. As such, expect a slight dropoff in stats, but not a significant one. Tiers 3 and 4 have good options, and tier 5 is also loaded with intriguing guys, which just shows how deep of a pool we have.

So what’s the recommended strategy with TEs? I would recommend a two step approach: 1) draft Jimmy Graham with a late first round pick, or 2) wait, wait and wait some more before selecting your TE. The rationale follows that for QBs – great depth at the position, and after tiers 1 and 2 are off the board, not much variance between tiers 3 and 4, and even tier 5. You can snag a solid starting TE later in the draft.

You may ask why I’m talking up tiers 1 and 2, while only advising to take Graham. Great question! The answer: Gronk and Julius Thomas will be drafted too high. At the time of this writing, the ADP for both players is the third round. While not absurd to take them that high, the return will be better if you wait for the lower tier guys and instead grab a WR or RB with your third round pick. Look, no question that Gronk is Graham’s equal if healthy, but that is a massive risk based on what we’ve seen the last two seasons. Let someone else take that risk.

Finally, a quick rapid-fire note as to why I think each player in bold has a good chance to outperform his ADP:

Jordan Reed: Reed broke out during the second half of the 2013 season. He has great chemistry with RGIII, and he’s another guy that passes the eye test. Reed’s injury history, however which dates back to his days at Florida, presents a legitimate concern, so just make sure to have a passable backup at TE if you do grab Reed.

Ladarius Green: Another player that passes the eye test, the Chargers have Antonio Gates’ successor in-house and ready to go. Ironically, the presence of Gates keeps Green from moving higher on the list. Don’t be surprised for Green to play an increasing role (i.e. become the Chargers’ number one TE) in the offense as the 2014 season goes on.

Zach Ertz: Ertz took over the lead TE role for the Eagles last season, and in the juggernaut Eagles offense, he’s poised to put together a strong season. The Eagles will especially utilize Ertz’s 6’5” frame often in the red zone, so expect TDs.

Dwayne Allen: After a promising 2012 rookie season, Allen got injured in week 1 last season and missed the remainder of the campaign. For fantasy purposes, that equals a buying opportunity. The Colts will feature many two TE sets, and while Coby Fleener has the bigger name, Dwayne Allen has better hands and brings more consistency than his teammate.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins: As a University of Washington alum, I watched every Husky game last season (and each of the past several seasons). ASJ has special talent, and the Bucs have already discovered this. His athleticism is off the charts (he even played basketball at UW for a season), and ASJ will shine in his rookie season. 

- Neema Hodjat is the fantasy sports expert for RealGM.  He can be reached via email at nhodjat@gmail.com and followed on twitter at @NeemaHodjat.