2013: 5-10-1, last in NFC North

2014 Over/Under: +/- 6 wins

Why the over

There really is a lot to like with the Minnesota Vikings, a playoff team in 2012 before bottoming out in a motley stew of ineffective QB play, porous defense and overmatched coaching.

This is a team that still has the preeminent running back in the league in Adrian Peterson. He’s 29 and has logged over 2000 NFL carries, but AD remains one of the most feared weapons around. He reliably churns out close to 5.0 yards per carry, and he’s a threat to take every handoff all the way. Defenses have to respect his presence, yet even when they dedicate to stopping him AD can still gash them for 170 yards and two TDs.

The offensive line in front of Peterson is solid. Left tackle Matt Kalil gets more notoriety, but it’s right tackle Phil Loadholt who is the more reliable performer. He’s a mauling behemoth, one of the best run blockers in the league. Loadholt uses his heavy hands adeptly and can keep his hips and shoulders squared to his target as well as any right tackle in the league. Kalil is no slouch on the left side, either, though he tends to be overrated based on his lofty draft status. The fourth pick of the 2012 draft needs to get more consistent. There are games where he is a brick wall, but others he will struggle to handle edge pressure. It’s worth noting that most of his bad games come against teams with 4-3 fronts.

Center John Sullivan and right guard Brandon Fusco are functional cogs. They get help from fullback Jerome Felton, one of the better ones in the league as a thumping lead blocker but also an excellent “help” pass protector.

The starting receivers are a lot better than generally regarded. Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson are both playmakers who stress the defense and blend well together. Jennings wasn’t as dynamic as expected in his first season after defecting from the rival Packers, but much of that was not his doing. He still has his sharp footwork and strong hands in traffic, and can quickly transition from receiver to runner.

Patterson came on strongly in his rookie year, showing the tantalizing athletic potential that made the Vikings draft him in the first round. The Tennessee product caught TDs in three of the last four games as he learned to better control his movements and read defenses. He’s got truly electrifying speed and agility for a 6’2”, 220 pound receiver, and if he can ever clean up his sometimes balky hands, he’s going to be a superstar. Not just a star, but an 80+ catch, 1250+ yards, 12+ TD a year force. He’s close to it already, folks…

Kyle Rudolph has lost some weight in an effort to get more agile, which should serve the tight end well. He’s a reliable possession receiver with a big frame and he’s very good at chipping and releasing into the intermediate routes.

All those weapons largely wilted on the vine with the underwhelming Matt Cassel and the truly awful Christian Ponder at quarterback. But that changes now with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm.

The Vikings boldly traded back into the first round to select the Louisville signal caller. It’s a move they will not regret. He inexplicably fell from potential No. 1 overall pick to 32nd thanks to a lousy pro day and concerns about his small hands and limited athletic prowess. That ignored the legitimately fantastic work he engineered on the field for the Cardinals. He has a strong arm with very good intermediate and downfield accuracy. His pro-style offense forced him to make NFL-style reads, both pre-snap and in the pocket. Those are advantages that should allow him to quickly transition as an upgrade at starter.

Defensively, the front four has potential to be great and should at least be solid.

The tackle duo of Sharrif Floyd and Linval Joseph promises to be very effective against the run. Joseph, a free agent acquisition from the Giants, is one of the rangiest big boys in the league and a very sure tackler. He’s tough to keep blocked thanks to violent hands and pretty nimble feet for a giant inside. Floyd’s run defense steadily improved as his rookie year bore on. He figured out that he shouldn’t be rushing the passer on every snap, even 3rd and short against 22 (two tight ends, two backs) personnel.

Floyd was a first round pick because of his pocket collapsing potential. He had some issues there in his first season, unable to counter when his quick first step didn’t get him the big advantage. That’s something that typically improves with experience, and he has the physical talent to be very effective.

Another first round pick, Anthony Barr joins the Vikings as a pass rush specialist from the outside linebacker position. His athletic metrics coming out of UCLA are fantastic, and his ability to chase down his target demonstrates rare speed and closing burst to the ball. He’ll make solid ends Brian Robison and Everson Griffen even more effective.

Griffen earned himself a new $42.5 million contract with his production the past couple of seasons, and the promise that he can continue to deliver. He’s quite powerful lat the point of attack but has enough quickness and savvy to beat blockers in a number of ways. He pairs well with Robison, another freak athlete who can stack up the edge. They’re going to miss Jared Allen, but this is still a quality front foursome. New head coach Mike Zimmer thrived with a similarly constructed line in Cincinnati, so he knows how to maximize the talent on hand.

The depth up front got better with Corey Wootton, a free agent defection from NFC North rival Chicago. He can play both tackle and end pretty capably.

Two other recent first rounders offer potential in the secondary. Safety Harrison Smith and cornerback Xavier Rhodes both have shown flashes, particularly Smith. Rhodes has outstanding length and turn-and-run speed to help on the outside. Adding Captain Munnerlyn, coming off a very effective season in Carolina, helps stabilize the other corner spot. He’s a major upgrade over Chris Cook; Munnerlyn earned a 10.9 grade from Pro Football Focus in 2013, while draft bust Cook was a -7.7. Size isn’t everything.

Patterson offers major juice as a return man and the ability to score points on special teams. Andrew Sendejo and Matt Asiata are both solid on coverage units, which helps Blair Walsh to being an above-average kickoff man.

Why the under

This team finished in last place for good reason, and it goes beyond bad quarterbacking. While they have made some nice upgrades in spots, there are still some glaring holes.

It starts at quarterback, where if Bridgewater either isn’t ready or gets hurt the team must turn back to Cassel. He’s adequate for a game or two but shouldn’t b e a long-term solution. If he winds up starting over Bridgewater--which is possible but unexpected--the “under” is a much stronger wager. I am a devout Bridgewater believer, but even folks like me have to acknowledge that he is a rookie that is going to make some game-altering mistakes as he gets his NFL feet wet.

The biggest issue, however, is the pass defense. Simply put, this Vikings unit could not cover, period. Safety Jamarca Sanford was the best cover man on the team, but he has always had an alarming tendency to give up big plays. When the outside corners have major issues with keeping between receivers and open spaces, Sanford’s vulnerability is a major weakness. The Vikings ranked 30th in QB Rating allowed and in the bottom third in just about every pass defense statistical metric.

Getting Harrison Smith back at full speed from a turf toe injury will help. So will Munnerlyn, though he’s coming off a rather unprecedented career year in a free agent walk season, which is always a caution flag. Yet Rhodes figures to struggle even more with the increased emphasis on defensive holding and illegal contact. He’s a grabby corner with poor anticipation. It’s worth noting that Munnerlyn ranked near the bottom in CB penalties last year with 9, the third-most in the league.

Losing Jared Allen could hurt as much psychologically as it does in negatively impacting the pass rush. He was the motor that drove the defense and the focal point of opposing blocking schemes. While Griffen and Robison are both solid players, neither is the dynamic force or sideline presence that Allen has been for years. That absolutely matters.

The linebackers are unimpressive. While Barr drips with potential, it’s easy to see that he’s only been playing defense for two years as a converted running back. He has very little clue how to use his hands, or to sense things like screens, draws and jet sweeps. He’ll rack up some sacks, but figures to be a liability against everything else for a year or two.

Chad Greenway was awful in 2013, unable to stop a slide that began about halfway through the 2012 campaign. It’s like the light bulb dimmed for a player who was once an above-average talent. Now 31, it’s unlikely the lights come flashing back. His coverage against opposing tight ends and backs was embarrassing. Backup Audie Cole has some ability as a nickel backer, but his run defense is a problem. I do think he’s a candidate to emerge as a surprise positive, but he’s not shown that yet.

They get little help from punter Jeff Locke, who ranked near the bottom after replacing the controversial Mr. Warcraft, Chris Kluwe.

Then there is the downside of racking up seven first-round picks in the last three drafts: lack of depth. It cost a lot to acquire those four bonus 1sts, and it comes at the expense of overall depth. The offensive line, secondary and linebacker depth is threadbare, and it’s not much better at the offensive skill positions. Long-term injuries to starters pretty much anywhere on the roster will thrust untested or underwhelming reserves into extensive action in what figures to be a highly competitive division.

Forecast

The Vikings are an interesting wagering proposition. The starting 22 says this is a eight or nine win team, perhaps even higher than that if Bridgewater is as good as some (myself included) think he can be. I love the coaching change to Mike Zimmer, who offers spice and salt where Leslie Frazier’s blandness was a decided negative. The players will love playing for Zim, and his schematic genius on defense could elevate the rather moribund back end to unexpected heights.

Yet this team won just five games a year ago, and any improvement will come on the backs of two rookies, Bridgewater and Barr. That’s asking a lot of them. As noted above, the depth on this team is as thin as any in the league. The schedule isn’t easy, either. All three NFC North opponents have incredible offensive firepower, and they draw the competitive NFC South as one of the outside divisions. The first four contests are tough (@STL, NE, @NO, ATL) and they finish with two of three on the road before hosting the Bears, who figure to be battling for playoff seeding.

Because I believe in Bridgewater and Zimmer, and because Peterson and Patterson make quite the dynamic duo of weaponry, I’m leaning towards the over. But it’s not a confident over. This team figures to win between six and eight games and that’s only with a little luck and good health. The Vikings improve to 7-9 in 2014.