Quarterbacks

Tier 1: Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning

Tier 2: Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Matthew Stafford

Tier 3: Robert Griffin III, Nick Foles, Matt Ryan

Tier 4: Tony Romo, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Colin Kaepernick, Jay Cutler, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning

Tier 5: Andy Dalton, Carson Palmer, Joe Flacco

Tier 6: Ryan Tannehill, Alex Smith, Josh McCown

Tier 7: Johnny Manziel, Jake Locker, Sam Bradford, Michael Vick, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Hoyer

* Players in bold are those players that I expect to significantly outperform their average draft position based on current ADP.

Analysis

Similar to last season, the QB position has strong depth. Drew Brees sits atop my QB ranks, with the Saints’ favorable schedule a lead reason why. On the flip side, Manning fell to third on my list (but still first tier) due to his daunting schedule, which includes four games against the steel-toed NFC West defenses. The drop from tier 1 to tier 2 is actually larger than the difference from the QBs in tier 2 through tier 4. This will be reflected in the top 150 rankings, and as such, note the importance of using the cross-positional rankings together with the tier rankings. 

So what should be your strategy with respect to QBs? If you can snag one of the three tier 1 guys at a reasonable spot in the draft (late 1st or early 2nd round), then give strong consideration to pulling the trigger. Otherwise, wait to grab a QB much later in the draft (think somewhere in rounds 5 through 9). As mentioned above, the dropoff from the QBs in tier 2 to those in tiers 3 and 4 is not much, and with the incredible depth at the position, you can afford to wait to grab a QB if you pass on those in tier 1. Do not rely on any QBs from tier 5 or lower as your primary starter.

Finally, a quick rapid-fire note as to why I think each player in bold has a good chance to outperform his ADP:

Tony Romo: Romo has been a favorite value pick of mine the last few years, as he’s perennially underrated as a fantasy QB. The Cowboys had a terrible defense last season, and have found a way to enter 2014 with an even worse D, so expect the Boys’ to throw and throw often. While this does not bode well for the Cowboys’ season, that not our problem – we only care about the juicy numbers that Romo will put up.

Philip Rivers: Just when the football world was ready to write Rivers off after two subpar seasons, the Chargers QB reverted back to his early Norv Turner days and turned in a fine 2013 season. The Rivers we saw last season should be repeated in 2014.

Eli Manning: We’ve all heard the phrase “Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice…”. This saying applies perfectly to my recommendation of Eli after I had him in this spot last year as well. Call it a hunch that the new OC will help get Eli and the Giants passing O back on track.

Neema Hodjat is the fantasy sports expert for RealGM. He can be reached via email at nhodjat@gmail.com and followed on twitter at @NeemaHodjat.