2013: 8-8, t-2nd in AFC East

2014 Over/Under: +/- 8 wins

Why the over

If the Miami Dolphins are going to top last year’s eight wins, it’s going to come from the defense. There is strong talent at all three levels--potentially. Turning all that potential into consistently effective play is the trick.

The pass rush is in great shape. Cameron Wake is a dynamo as the left end, producing 46 sacks in the last four years. He’s got great burst off the line but can also win with his impressive ability to transfer speed into power.

Miami found a strong complement to him in Olivier Vernon, who bagged 11.5 sacks off the right side last year. The local product took a major leap forward in his second season, and he should push double-digit sacks again. In fact, the duo could net 25 combined sacks with a little luck.

The Dolphins are also in good shape inside up front with Jared Odrick and Randy Starks. They’re both solid all-around tackles. Odrick has some consistency issues and takes himself out of too many plays, but he can also make life very difficult for opposing offenses. They even have depth up front with Derrick Shelby and Earl Mitchell. It’s a deep and functional front.

Linebacker Koa Misi has developed nicely. He’s a reliable tackler with solid range, and he offers some juice as a blitzer too. There is stability with fellow backers Phillip Wheeler and Dannell Ellerbe, both of whom can also bring some heat on the blitz. Of course they are shuffling the deck a bit, moving Misi inside to try and spark a rebound from Ellerbe.

The secondary offers some promise. Brent Grimes was quietly great in his first season in Miami. Grimes was strong in coverage but just as importantly, when he ceded receptions he immediately cleaned them up with sure tackling.

I was a big fan of Jamar Taylor out of Boise State, the team’s second-round pick in 2013. He was never 100% and struggled as a rookie, but I really like his potential to step up and emerge as a quality starter in his second season. The team did bring in some insurance with Cortland Finnegan, though that’s more of a longshot gamble than anything to rely upon.

Adding safety Louis Delmas could be a boon, if he can stay healthy. He’s a hard-hitting playmaker with infectious confidence and brings a real presence to the back end of the defense. He proved more durable in his last year in Detroit, though that came at the expense of not practicing. He and Reshad Jones are big variables. Both are Pro Bowl-potential safeties if they click together and bring the consistency.

Offensively, it’s hard to imagine the line being any worse. At least four new starters will play, perhaps five if center Mike Pouncey isn’t healthy. The bigger issue here is that Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin are both mercifully gone. That’s the best example of addition by subtraction in the NFL.

There is some skill position talent on the roster. I like Ryan Tannehill as a quarterback, though he must take better care of the ball than his 30 INTs in the last two seasons indicates. Some of that was a function of being under constant duress from a truly awful offensive line, too. Tannehill was the most-sacked QB in the league last year--by double digits--and that comes on top of finishing second in throwaways. When he had time, he showed he could find the correct option and deliver a strong-armed strike. Matt Moore is a solid veteran backup who doesn’t get enough credit for how well he played during his periodic starts over his career.

Mike Wallace offers high-end potential. He and Brian Hartline could be a decent tandem. Wallace must live up to his lofty free agent contract, something he did not do in his first season with Miami. They even added a couple of rookies I like in Jarvis Landry and Matt Hazel, so there is some youthful potential. Charles Clay is a useful tight end/h-back with some giddyup. The receiving cast has the makings of a group that can emerge as better than the sum of its parts, yet has a couple of very nice parts too.

The Dolphins are entering camp with about 10 running backs competing for spots. I like the addition of Knowshon Moreno, although he could begin on PUP and miss several games. Lamar Miller does a solid job of eking out yards after contact and has some open-field elusiveness. He projects as a better fit in the new offense. Daniel Thomas is an effective short-yardage back who can break some tackles. If that troika is all healthy, Miami has a very strong, versatile backfield with some playmaking dynamics. That’s a great thing to have when the receiving corps is questionable.

The specialists are top notch. Caleb Sturgis finished his rookie campaign poorly but should rebound. Meanwhile, Brandon Fields is one of the better punters in the league.

Why the under

Before even getting to the players, just browse the above “positives” section. Notice how many of those have conditionals attached.

Tannehill “should” improve. Wallace and Hartline “could be” a solid wide receiver duo. Knowshon Moreno could begin on PUP. Lamar Miller “projects” better. Louis Delmas “could be” a boon if he’s healthy. Jamar Taylor has “potential” to step up.

There is very little positive certainty other than the defensive front, half the secondary and the punter. Uncertainty is opportunity for gamblers, but it’s a real tough way to approach a NFL season.

The biggest variable is Tannehill, now entering his third season. It’s just his fifth season playing quarterback, and that inexperience often rears its ugly head. He has very good mobility but doesn’t use it with discretion, appearing to scramble without an end game in mind. He throws a pretty deep ball but often aims it instead of throwing it. At times he creates pressure on plays where his offensive line is holding up well.

Ah yes, the O-line. Some of the new additions are major upgrades, notably left tackle Branden Albert. I was a Dallas Thomas fan in his draft class and he could be a solid left guard. Yet the line will need time to develop chemistry and cohesion. They’re starting an overdrafted rookie in Ja’Wuan James at right tackle and a career backup in Shelley Smith at right guard. I do like James’ potential but it would look a lot better if he had a more reliable presence flanking him.

Pouncey at center is a mixed blessing. No doubt he’s a skilled player, but he was more than casually involved in last year’s ugliness and continues to make ponderous off-field choices. It’s hard to envision him as the anchor and leader of this eclectic young group. It’s even harder since he’ll miss a few weeks with a torn labrum. There is not one snap of proven depth anywhere on the interior of the line, and oft-injured Jason Fox represents the depth at tackle.

Mike Wallace has to become the player he was in Pittsburgh. In his first year in Miami his catch rate, yards per catch, YAC and touchdowns all fell off. Some of that is attributable to working with a developmental QB in Tannehill, but Wallace just didn’t look as dynamic or strident. He’s a player at his best when loaded with swagger, but that effusiveness was missing for prolonged stretches. Without him blazing down the field on deeper sideline routes or creating havoc after a quick slant or bubble screen, the passing offense lacks a real difference-making threat.

The shuffling of the linebackers has to work. Ellerbe and Wheeler were major downgrades from the men they replaced, Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett. That 2013 offseason exchange turned out to be a Gob Bluth-like huge mistake. One of them should bounce back and have a decent 2014, but the odds that both play at an above-average level are about as good as Kentucky winning the Sugar Bowl. There is nothing but later-round rookies and street free agents behind them, though Jordan Tripp could turn out to be a great 5th round find.

I’m not crazy about the addition of Cortland Finnegan, who has been absolutely wretched on the field in two of the last three years.

Then there’s the complete waste of a top 3 pick that is Dion Jordan. He is a 3-4 OLB being used incorrectly by the Dolphins, who are trying to turn him into a rush end. That takes away from his best attribute, his ability to cover ground in space. After a miserable rookie season, he now will miss the first month of 2014 under suspension for PEDs. I have credible sources who advised me the team couldn’t even bring back a 2nd round pick as they begged other teams for a Jordan trade during draft weekend.

Organizational discord is another problem, albeit an abstract one. It starts at the very top with majority owner Stephen Ross, who has a unique way of running his team. Axing controversial GM Jeff Ireland is a positive, but failing to dump meh coach Joe Philbin with him is a major mistake. In order to move forward from chaos, all vestiges of said chaos need to be purged. Philbin will (rightly) be seen as a lame duck under new GM Dennis Hickey, and the change of coordinators is mere temporary plugging of serious cracks in the dam with duct tape and bubble gum. Hickey was a great hire but keeping Philbin undermines his authority. You’d better believe players know that.

Dumping offensive coordinator Mike Sherman could be a real negative in Tannehill’s development. Sherman was his coach at Texas A&M, his biggest advocate and his trusted mentor and support system. Did he perform well as coordinator? Absolutely not, but there is some major risk involved here.

Forecast

Miami is a scary betting proposition. They finished 8-8 last year and in the middle third of the league in many statistical metrics, so the target 8 wins seems logical. They have many key questions, but so does the entire AFC East.

I’m leaning strongly towards the under here. It’s just hard for me to envision all those variables coming up roses. I’m legitimately worried about Tannehill’s progress at this critical juncture, and the offensive line chaos and him learning a new system exacerbate those fears. There is so much uncertainty around him, too.

The schedule doesn’t help. There’s a good chance this team opens 0-2, facing the Patriots and then travelling to Buffalo. The non-divisional slate features the tough NFC North and brutal AFC West, which put three teams in the playoffs last year. Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers et al represent serious passing attacks that will take aim at the Miami defense. Outscoring all those potent offenses will be a challenge.

I don’t think this unit is up for that challenge. It’s going to get worse before it gets better in Miami. These Dolphins finish 6-10 in 2014.