Tampa Bay Buccaneers:           

2013 RECORD: 4-12  

2012 RECORD: 7-9   

2011 RECORD: 4-12   

2010 RECORD: 10-6   

TEAM OVERVIEW: As written last year, Tampa fans weren’t thrilled when Greg Schiano was named the head coach.  Most players did not buy into Schiano’s style of coaching (and communicating).  Most opposing coaches did not welcome him into their fraternity.   He’s gone now, but there were some things that Schiano did quite well.  Teams coached by Greg usually end up with strong turnover ratios as well as stout run D’s.  Tampa finished ’13 with a +10 ratio despite youth at QB and a soft pass D.  The run D was slightly above average, a year after going from worst to first.  Lovie Smith takes over a team that has the potential to move up in the NFC but is also quite young in certain key areas.  The current thinking here is to build this team for the long run, taking the best of the Schiano era and mixing it with what Smith did well in Chicago.  It can be done.

KEY STATS: Tampa scored just 288 points (30th).  Part of the reason is clearly suspect QB play (Freeman) and a rookie QB (Glennon) plus losing stud RB Martin for 10+ games but the vanilla scheme is equally at fault.  The 3rd down conversion rate was a very low 30%.  The OL is functional but youth at QB and RB contributed to their allowing 47 sacks.  Despite being behind plenty of times and despite Glennon’s strong 19-9 ratio Tampa gave up almost 1,000 more passing yards than they obtained.  Total offensive yards were 32nd in the NFL at 277 per game.  It won’t be easy to make up ground since Tampa is unlikely to repeat a +10 turnover ratio, especially without Schiano.  The pass D% remained high at 64.4% with 30 passing TD’s allowed.  This area needs immediate attention.  The kick return D tied for 1st but the punt return D was not great.  Tampa was unlucky that opposing kickers made 31 of 32 field goals.  Defensive sacks were up from their five year average of 27.5 per year but at 35, still well below the record NFL average of 41.  Spread-wise, I noted last year that, “with the new staff, spread stats need to be monitored”. Tampa is 24-12 as a non-Divisional home dog (2-2 in ’12-13).  They are 15-6 as a dog of 10 points or more (1-1).  They fell to 1-11 when placed in the role of a home underdog in their last home game.  

2013 DRAFT REVIEW: Tampa went 3 for 3 in the early part of the ’12 draft but lacked a 1st round pick for this draft after the trade for CB Revis.  This draft didn’t feel as good but everyone played and QB Glennon had the most surprising rookie year of all drafted QB’s, starting 13 games with a 59.4% and a very stout 19-9 ratio.  Can he keep this up?  DT Spence started 14 games and had 29 tackles.  Unfortunately, a recent arrest may cloud his immediate future.  RB James also contributed after Doug Martin got hurt, running 295-4.9-0 and catching 10 passes.  New England wasn’t the only team who gobbled up players from Rutgers.  Undrafted TE Tim Wright went 54-571-5 which was another complete surprise.

2012 DRAFT REVISITED: Tampa’s focus and decision-making was exceptional at the top of the board (48-48 starts in ‘12).  Barron now has 177 tackles and does a great job supporting the run.  RB Martin was hurt in game six while on his way to another strong season.  LB David has 283 tackles and in ’13 added 6 sacks and 5 picks!  LB Goode was inactive in ’12 and had 21 tackles for Philly in ’13.  Teammate LB Tandy improved to go 40-3.  The remaining two picks in this productive class washed out, but rated CB Leonard Johnson (undrafted) has 93 tackles in his two years.

TOP STRENGTH AND WEAKNESS PRIOR TO THE DRAFT: The run D was not as great as in ’12 but it was still strong enough to be considered an asset.  The pass D% remains a liability. 

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES: The new coaching staff wants to reshape the roster their way.  Offensively, QB Luke McCown has already been anointed the starter over Glennon.  Reserve WR Louis Murphy and TE  Brandon Myers add depth.  OT Anthony Collins should start.  Tampa did suffer multiple OL defections, including OT Penn, OG’s Joseph and Lawsen, OC Zuttah and swing OL Carmini.  Defensively, DE Michael Johnson could give a nice lift to the pass rush.  CB’s Verner and Jenkins will be a nice fit in the new scheme.  A couple of LB’s are gone and of course Tampa did not pick up CB Revis and his bloated salary.  Former Cal coach Jeff Tedford is the new Offensive Coordinator.  Former Viking Head Coach Leslie Frazier is the new Defensive Coordinator.  Expect the pass D% to remain over 60% with the softer cover two scheme the preferred choice of this new staff.

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: Right side OL and possibly OC, OLB, #3 and #4 WR, safety extra DL. RG Joseph is gone and RT Dotson is replaceable with the right selection.  Dekoda Watson left and there is no OLB on the roster who should be a starter.  LB depth as a whole is weak.  Tampa has exactly two NFL caliber WR’s!  FS Goldson had a rocky Tampa debut and there is currently no one else available at that position.  Tampa added two DL but could use one more.