San Francisco 49ers:     

2013 RECORD: 12-4  

2012 RECORD: 11-4-1   

2011 RECORD: 13-3   

2010 RECORD: 6-10   

TEAM OVERVIEW: Jim Harbaugh is intense but there’s no question he can coach. San Francisco was a muffed punt (’11 title game) and a late interception (’13 title game) from being a Super Bowl participant in three straight seasons.  The 49ers slightly ran out of gas against Seattle as they were on the road for the 5th time in a six week period.  San Francisco is fundamentally sound, but not elite in all areas.  They have great depth but as of this writing their QB is good but not elite, a deep threat WR has not emerged, there is no true NT, and the secondary is sound as a whole but individually they are not much better than average.  San Francisco misses often on draft day but unlike many other teams they can afford to take risks, AND, their method of stockpiling picks gives them more chances to overcome draft reaches.  These 49ers are built for the long run but to make things easier, they must win a very tough NFC West to avoid multiple road playoff games.  In this case, it’s the offense that must diversify.  Can Kapernick take that next step? 

KEY STATS: Kaepernick was under 59% in ’13 but had a nice 21-8 ratio.  San Francisco wisely let him mostly stay in the pocket until the crunch games late in the year and in the playoffs.   Gore and Kaepernick led the way to a 4.4-137.6 run attack, figures actually down from 5.1-155.7 in ’12. The 49ers actually had only two more 1st downs than their opponents despite their solid defense.  All defensive #’s were decent, with only defensive sacks (38) running a bit below NFL averages.  They allowed 272 points, 3rd in the NFL.  They held opponents to 34% on 3rd down conversions.  Both total D and pass TD’s allowed were 5th in the NFL.  The kick return D solidly improved (tie 3rd).  Punter Andy Lee remains elite.  Spread-wise, San Francisco’s only trend is 34-11 as a MNF favorite.

2013 DRAFT REVIEW: Prior to draft day, the 49ers traded QB Alex Smith to the Kansas City Chiefs, receiving pick #34.  They had Carolina’s 3rd round pick (#74) from a trade made in ‘12.  The 49ers figured to be active in the draft and did not disappoint, making four trades, all before the end of the 3rd round.  The trio of moves San Francisco made in ’12 helped arm them with the ammo to make the moves they made in rounds 1-3. They jumped up to get safety Reid, trading 31/74. The 49ers gave up just a 6th in the trade for WR Boldin.  Even with that move the 49ers had seven picks left.  Both DE Carridine and RB Lattimore were off serious injuries but a team like this one could afford to allow them to sit and heal.  Free agency got them DL Dorsey (41-2) and solid PK Dawson (32-36).  The last five picks in this draft all received ratings of NR (not good enough to be rated).  The original comments for the five NR draftees are below.  Two were cut, one sat, and the other two combined for five tackles!

1-18, S   Reid: 5’9” but a leaper with closing speed and violent tackling.  77-4 picks as a rookie.

2-40, DE Carradine: Won’t be rushed, but possible starter in ’14 with both a speed and power component

2-55, TE McDonald: Converted WR a red zone target.  Strong, not yet a blocker.  Some drops. 8-14.9-0.

3-88, DE Lemonier: Athletic JR can get overaggressive, won’t shed blocks easily and lacks run awareness

4-128, WR Patton: Savvy, polished and productive, a dangerous player after making the catch.  Slow start.

4-131, RB  Lattimore: 3-down special RB before major injuries, now a rehab guy and a player worth rooting for

5-157, DE  Dial: Big enough for NT, but few starts and doesn’t shed blocks quick enough

5-180, LB  Moody: FSU DL with some speed but little production (20 tackles in ’12).  Subpar strength?

7-237, QB Daniels: Athletic but hardly QB material, he will need specific role to stick

7-246, OT Bykowski: HE said he was surprised to get drafted.  I agree!

7-252, CB Cooper: Did New England miss this Rutgers CB?  Probably available after roster cuts!

2012 DRAFT REVISITED: One of the 49ers goals was to get faster.  As for value, I said in the ’10 and ’11 draft previews to “expect the unexpected”.  San Francisco found little value in the draft.  A quote described the ’12 draft as follows: “it’s clear the 49ers see their rookies as a developmental team for the most part”.  Jenkins and James should not have been selected so high.  OG Looney was a reach, and certainly an unnecessary trade UP.  CFN’s quote from ’11 applied again in ’12.  SF, “drafted a slew of free agent talents and overpaid for several players”.  In ’12, the entire draft class saw a total of 105 snaps outside of special teams!  An amazing five of the seven draftees are now gone after surprise 1st round WR Jenkins was traded to KC.  OL Looney has appeared in a total of four games.  RB James does his work as a return specialist.  This was an awful draft!

TOP STRENGTH AND WEAKNESS PRIOR TO THE DRAFT: The run game is borderline elite and deep, especially with Kaepernick in the mix.  Kaepernick and Wilson of Seattle are winners, but the pass game is not the driving force of either team.

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES: Blaine Gabbert was rushed into action as a rookie with the Jags.  The trade to get him is a no-risk proposition.  The same is true for Jonathan Martin, who adds OL depth but still must get more physical.  San Francisco lost CB’s Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown and safety Donte Whitner.  CB Chris Cook is a decent acquisition even if he is not a true #1 CB.  Safety Bethea is at least equal to Whitner but a very different player. 

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: CB, ILB and LB depth, OC and back-up OL depth, extra WR, possibly a true NT.  The CB’s are Rogers, Tramaine Brock and Eric Wright.  More is needed.  ILB Bowman was seriously hurt in the NFC title game and might not be ready for much of ’14.  That’s a big loss on a team with little in reserve at LB.  The OL is top five, but OC Goodwin is getting older (35) and the back-ups could use an upgrade as it could be a problem if there were injuries to the starting five.  Quinton Patton could be the answer if given a chance but in this deep WR class it might not hurt to draft another hot prospect.  San Francisco is a stout run D team even without a true NT big body.  Maybe someday they’ll draft one.