Oakland Raiders:              

2013 RECORD: 4-12  

2012 RECORD: 4-12   

2011 RECORD: 8-8   

2010 RECORD: 8-8   

TEAM OVERVIEW: Poor drafting and poor coaching at the top levels left the team void of talent and decision-making, but it wasn’t until ’12 that the pass D% finally crumbled.  In that ’12 season, the warning signs were real.  They started 1-4, with four defensive sacks and an over 70 pass D%.  Carson Palmer had a decent year but it wasn’t enough.  Now fast forward to ’13.  Team turnover was at an all-time high.  The rebuilt defense allowed 453 points (29^th) and the pass D% was even worse, at 68%.  QB play regressed with a variety of players trying to impress the coaching staff.  As Oakland enters the ’14 draft season, there is plenty of uncertainty.  Do they trust their current QB crop?  Is there any WR on the roster that scares opposing defenses?  Are they building a defense or just randomly changing parts?  Finally, is this coaching staff (left intact) in over its head?  At least Oakland has cap room, armed with a record amount of available spending money.  Just when will things start to improve?

KEY STATS: The Raiders had other poor numbers besides those listed above.  They had a -11 interception ratio thanks to just nine defensive interceptions.  They allowed 33 pass TD’s.  The OL allowed 44 sacks.  Their historically fine PK was only 70% in ’13.  The three notable plus stats were an improved run D (3.9-108), their usual run +’s at 4.6-125 despite McFadden hurt again as per usual and a rare plus in their kick return defense.  Sacks were a bit below average but did rise from 25 to 38.  Spread-wise, one might be surprised to know that they are 19-7 as a road dog off back-to-back losses.  Of course they are also 10-25 anywhere off back-to-back wins, a situation that did not arise in ‘13.  They are 5-22 in their last home game.  There are other negative spread histories such as December spread numbers (0-4 in ’13) and Divisional favorite status (no situations in ’13).

2013 DRAFT REVIEW: It was no secret (to me) that GM McKenzie was going to add as many draft choices as he could.  Oakland needed most everything, but OT was further down my list.  Watson has talent but has a boom or bust component.  LB Moore fits one of their higher level needs.  Oakland has made a habit of stockpiling QB’s and wasting draft picks.  They likely would have drafted Barkley at 100 but Philly surprised most people by trading up to get him at 98.  Oakland traded down to get QB Wilson and used the extra pick to get a RB in area of need.  I have proof that Al Davis is alive!  The 4.36 Pro Day got NR WR Butler drafted.  Undrafted QB McGloin wasn’t bad, starting seven games.  He hit 55.9% with a 7-6 ratio and few sacks taken!  Oakland was active and productive with its free agents, especially on defense, although assembling them all at once was too hard on their beleaguered staff.  In fact, most of the Raider defense was comprised of free agents and draftees.

1-12, CB Hayden: Medical miracle has elite backpedal but must get stronger.  Decent debut (26) in 8 GP.

2-42, OT Watson: RT from England is gifted, but raw.  Potential there to be a solid starter. 5 GP – 3 starts.

3-66, LB S Moore: Strong and disruptive in backfield, the run and chase LB is effective in space.  50-4.5.

4-112, QB Wilson: Pocket QB in a weak QB class, we guessed wrong who might have best playing shot

6-172, TE  Kasa: DE until ’12 so still learning position.  Physical but a raw route runner.  1 catch (TD).

6-181, RB Murray: Good hands, 5.4 career average.  Draft riser.  On IR, but could surprise in ’14.

6-184, TE  Rivera: Bit short and light.  Soft hands and can work sidelines.  38-11.6-4.

6-205, DT  McGee: 2.5 career sacks, called an underachiever with a rap sheet.  20 tackles not bad?

7-209, WR Butler: Unlikely to stick but his dad (Bobby Butler) was a 12 year NFL CB!  Did go 9-11.4-0.

7-233, DE  Bass: 56 TFL, 39.5 sacks in small college career.  Character a plus.  20 tackles for Chicago.

2012 DRAFT REVISITED: It was though Oakland couldn’t do any worse than ‘11, but being the last team to draft meant they had little ammunition to make big news.  Bergstrom barely played in ’12 but was slated to start in ’13 before going on IR in camp.  LB Burris had 96 rookie tackles but just 4 in 6 games played in ’13 after starting the year on the PUP list.  DE Crawford had 15 tackles.  WR Criner played in 15 games but with just 3 receptions.  DT Bilukidi had just a single tackle.  LB Stupar was cut in ’12.  No wonder Oakland put a facelift on the entire team!

TOP STRENGTH AND WEAKNESS PRIOR TO THE DRAFT: Regardless of who is healthy the Raider run O usually finishes with a high yards per carry figure.  Once an amazing (and out of the blue) strong area, the Raider pass D% has had back to back disastrous years.  Given the importance of that statistic, this area becomes the #1 weakness. 

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES: Oakland went from an astounding $49 million in dead money in ’13 to a league high $65 million (give or take a few dollars) in ’14.  The ($65 million) question was would they spend it wisely?  Last year they gutted the starting defensive roster.  It looks like the entire roster is still being either built up or rented out.  Letting LT Veldheer and DE Houston go was a poor start.  Oakland rebounded in both areas to some extent by signing OT Penn, OT Howard and interior OL Boothe for the offense, and DE Tuck and a couple filler types for the DL.  James Jones should help at WR.  LB Woodley is young enough to produce and upgrade Oakland at LB.  Last year’s rent a CB’s Tracy Porter and Mike Jenkins left.  Incoming DB’s Tony Dye and Tarrell Brown won’t move the needle much.  Additions made near the end of March include RB Jones-Drew and decent CB Carlos Rogers.  Recent losses include WR Jacoby Ford, OG Brisiel and CB Philip Adams.  Every year Oakland adds a QB.  This year it’s Matt Schaub, via a trade with the Texans.  No coaching changes were made.  Is that a good thing?

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: 2 DB’s, Feature WR and an extra WR, 1-2 DL, OL, impact TE.  Oakland has regressed mightily stopping the pass under the current staff.  The secondary is a mess.  Oakland has complimentary WR parts but lack a true go-to guy.  The DL is weaker and might not be able to hold up at the point of attack.  There “might” be enough OL talent on the current roster but it wouldn’t hurt to add someone, perhaps at OG especially with the release of OG Brisiel.  Oakland drafted two TE’s in ’13.  Rivera had a nice debut.  What is his ceiling?