Kansas City Chiefs:      

2013 RECORD: 11-5  

2012 RECORD: 2-14   

2011 RECORD: 7-9   

2010 RECORD: 10-6          

TEAM OVERVIEW: Replacing Romeo Crennel was not going to be difficult.  Andy Reid injected much needed life into the Chiefs and the acquisition of careful QB Alex Smith turned a -24 turnover ratio from ’12 into last year’s +18 ratio.  That alone resulted in 147 “found” points at 3.5 points per turnover.  11-5 was the result, even though KC fans feel let down after starting 9-0 and then blowing a big lead in the playoffs.  The truth is that KC’s true level is somewhere between that 9-0 start and the disappointing 2-6 finish.  This is a good team that still has work to do in a few key areas.  With Philly, Reid had a strong voice in the draft room, which led to good draft trade value (and quality team depth) but also several questionable player selections, most notably along the OL and in the secondary.  These are the mistakes that must be corrected before KC can take the next step.

KEY STATS: KC did come back to earth after their 9-0 start but there is plenty of talent on the roster.  The point D survived to finish 5th and the pass D% was 2nd at 56.4%.  Despite the emergence of NT Poe the KC run D needs work as 4.5 per carry is certainly too high.  The number was 4.5 in ’12 as well.  Yes, the turnover ratio was great but KC is extremely unlikely to repeat a +11 return and defensive TD edge.  One aspect of the D that still needs work is their 24th rated overall yardage number.  Sacks for KC move up from 27 to 47 (tie 6th).  KC had the 4th rated punt return D (6.5).  Spread-wise, KC was 0-1 as a home dog and as a Divisional home dog with revenge.  They usually excel in these roles, but Reid himself was not great as home dog in Philly.  KC was never great as a road favorite and was 3-11 entering ’13 as a non-conference road favorite.  This was a role Reid was great at and KC excelled on the road in ’13.  KC was 1-1 with same season revenge to move that spread record to 28-14.  They remain 13-6 as a MNF dog.

2013 DRAFT REVIEW: KC traded pick #34 to SF in order to obtain QB Alex Smith. This was the 1st time ever KC’s had the #1 pick of the draft.  They waited a long time before deciding on OT Fisher over presumed top choice Joeckel.  As I write this (3/2/14) Fisher remains as a RT.  He learned on the job as a rookie.  TE was a need thanks to numerous injuries but rookie Kelce continued that trend.  RB Davis added depth.  Without Alex Smith (60.6%, 23-7 ratio) this would have been a below average draft.  In short, it was uninspiring!  To use last year’s quote, LB Johnson was lower rated but fits a team need.  Rotoworld did not like CB Cummings, calling him “allergic to contact”.  Pick 204 was compensatory and maybe not used wisely.   I called the sleeper round selections in ’11 and ’12 “speculative”.  As it turned out, ‘13’s sleeper round selections were worse!

1-01, OT Fisher: Zone blocker is solid in every phase, plus he has the IQ and personality to succeed

3-63, TE Kelce: Can separate and make the big play.  Lacks true blocking technique.  Injured in ’13.

3-96, RB Davis: Upside but must protect ball.  That part was true.  Yards-per carry needs to increase.

4-99, LB N Johnson: Smart two-down LB who got better each year.  Limited in pass game.  7 rookie tackles.

5-134, CB Cummings: Moves to FS.  Better in space as opposed to in traffic.  Two games, then hurt.

6-170, OC Kush: Potential starter with solid strength but the lower level OC is extremely raw.  3 games.

6-204, FB  Wilson: Reid called Wilson the best blocking FB in draft.  Then he was cut!

7-207, DE  Catapano: Princeton grad has 12 senior sacks.  Ivy defensive player of year is strong. 

2012 DRAFT REVISITED: Workout warrior DT Poe fits the scheme and looked very good going 51-4.5.  Still, the KC run D was too high and Poe did NOT have a sack after game #8.  OT’s Allen and Stephenson were both drafted too high based on my player ratings.  Allen has 27 starts and Stephenson 14.  How good are they?  Wylie is an incomplete WR.  He was cut prior to ’13 and is on his 5th team (SF practice squad).  CB Menzie is on his 3rd team (no roster guarantee).  RB Gray saw very limited action.  DT Long was cut in ’12.  WR Hemingway (7-238) was * rated and caught 12 passes in ’13.

TOP STRENGTH AND WEAKNESS PRIOR TO THE DRAFT: The run game got the nod here last year, but perhaps the pass D% deserves 1st billing.  For the 2nd year in a row, the run D makes the top area of concern. 

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES: The losses outweigh the gains.  Possession WR and punt return specialist McCluster is gone, along with LT Albert and OG’s Schwartz and Asamoah on offense.  The defense loses DE Tyson Jackson, with the other losses not as meaningful except that a huge chunk of depth is gone.  Arriving are OL Jeff Linkenbach, DT Vance Walker, LB Joe Mays and safety Jerron McMillon. 

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: No. 1 WR and WR depth, starting LT and OL depth, run stoppers along the front seven, DE, Safety and CB depth, RB, LB, better blocking FB.  Dwayne Bowe is no longer a true #1 WR.  70 yards was his BEST regular season output.  There’s nothing much behind him.  There’s filler-type depth along the OL but KC may not have a guaranteed OT ready to replace Albert.  Injuries hurt KC, especially at LB but even when healthy they were not perfect defending the run.  KC needs a free safety opposite Eric Berry and has a serviceable starter in CB Sean Smith but at the very least he should face some competition for his job.  Jamaal Charles is not a big guy and back-up, Knile Davis may not be healthy enough to start the season.  FB Sherman might be good enough, but KC might consider adding competition here as well.