RealGM Analysis
Jacksonville Jaguars:
2013 RECORD: 4-12
2012 RECORD: 2-14
2011 RECORD: 5-11
2010 RECORD: 8-8
TEAM OVERVIEW: Armed with the worst roster in the NFL, Jacksonville began the Gus Bradley era by going 0-8. During that stretch the point ratio was 10.75-33, the sack ratio was 11-28, turnovers were at -8, the run O was 3.0-66.5, the run D 4.8-162 and the pass D% was just under 66%, with three defensive interceptions. The Jags four wins in the 2nd half of the season came vs. Tennessee (twice), Cleveland and Houston. Maybe that in itself is not impressive, but here are the 2nd half numbers. The point ratio was 20-23, the sack ratio 20-22, turnovers were +1, the run O was 90-3.6, the run D 103-3.55 and the pass D% was just over 63%, with eight interceptions. Mistakes were made on draft day ’13, but previous drafts were borderline awful. Playing in the AFC South could be a positive as long as the Jags hit big at QB and use the rest of their ’14 draft picks wisely.
KEY STATS: The Jags are the 2nd of four teams with a – point ratio entering ’14. Amazingly, NO team will enter ’14 with a + point ratio, and that has never happened! The reason the Jags are statistically not even as good as last year’s 4-12 record is that they scored just 247 points (last) while allowing 449 points (28th). Offensively, Jacksonville was 31st in the NFL running the ball with a 3.3-79 ledger. They were 31st in sacks allowed (50). In this increasingly offensive league the Jags have scored over 20 points just four times in the past two seasons! They had a -82 1st down figure. They were successful a mere 31% on 3rd downs. They were a random +4 in fumble ratio but -10 in their interception ratio. Defensively, they “improved” to 31 sacks but that was tied last in the NFL. The Jags have sacked opposing QB’s just 151 times in the past six seasons! The six year pass D average improved to 65% (64.2% in ’13). As expected, time of possession was similar to ’12 at -5:15. Jacksonville was tied 27th in total yards allowed on D and allowed 29 pass TD’s. Want some good news? The kick return and punt return D was 3rd and 5th respectively. Spread-wise, the Jags were once again just 6-10 against the spread but this time saw their record as a dog of over 7 points drop badly. They are 24-36 on the road off a win and remain 14-30 as a favorite of 7 or more after having no plays in this category from ‘11 through ‘13.
2013 DRAFT REVIEW: I listed showed a trio of defensive needs ahead of OL but the Jags felt that Joeckel represented value. He also might have been a ‘safer” pick than many of the highly rated boom or bust DL and OLB’s. Cyprien made sense but Gratz.was not on my radar screen that early (64). Still, DB was my #1 need here and in fact I listed them as needing three DB’s! In the end the Jags used five of eight picks for their secondary. My ratings clearly suggested that better players were available.
1-02, OT Joeckel: Textbook fundamentals, agile and solid in pass game but may need more power. 5 GP.
2-33, S Cyprien: 4-year instinctive, with 365 career tackles. Had 104 rookie tackles and was impressive.
3-64, CB Gratz: Strong run supporter but backpedal not ideal. 10 GP, 8 starts, 32 tackles.
4-101, WR Sanders: Small and elusive, with modest production. Quick screen guy. 51-9.5.1, limited returns.
5-135, WR* D Robinson: Former Michigan QB might have better impact at RB/return man. Raw, limited usage.
6-169, FS Evans: Has the range. Productive, but loses track of deep ball. 11 starts, 58 tackles!
7-208, CB Harris: Position need acknowledged but skills set well below NFL requirements. IR in ’13.
7-210, CB McCray: Has some ball skills. Drafted for “potential”. Played 16 games with 12 tackles.
2012 DRAFT REVISITED: As documented several times, the Jags do not know how to trade down. They traded up to get WR Blackmon, matching their top need at that time. Blackmon is as immature as they come, and needs to be traded despite his on-field skill. He played just four games in ’13, with 29 catches. DE Branch was 4th rated (by me) and improved to 37-6 sacks in ’13. Anger is solid as a Punter. The last three choices were all NR rated. Two are gone, with CB M. Harris making 37 tackles.
TOP STRENGTH AND WEAKNESS PRIOR TO THE DRAFT: Finding a strength is tough, but the kick and punt return D was 3rd and 5th respectively. The pass D% and the inability to sack others are co-weaknesses, just ahead of QB play.
FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES: Bad teams can’t get by with drafts of five players. The Jags did that for years under the former GM and paid the price. This free agency has seen them add several players who can help with the transition, including RB Gerhart, OG Beadles, DL Hood, Bryant and Clemons, LB Dekoda Watson and safety Sherrod Martin. DL benefited the most. No significant players were lost, including traded former 1st round QB Gabbert. Maybe one could argue that RB Maurice Jones-Drew is a loss, but he’s replaceable, as are most NFL RB’s in this passing league.
2014 DRAFT NEEDS: Draft Needs as of March 20th. QB, 2 OL, 1-2 CB’s and DB depth, RB, 2 OLB’s WR, pass rushing specialist, #2 TE. Chad Henne did what he could but his best role would be as a priority NFL back-up. Even with OG Beadles there are not enough starting caliber OL on this team. Remember, OC Meester is retiring. As noted above, the Jags added three CB’s in the ’13 draft. Only one was rated by highly by me so another dip into the CB market is necessary. Young legs are needed at RB. The OLB’s read Geno Hayes, John Lotulelei and Russell Allen. An upgrade or two would be welcome. Justin Blackmon is on suspension and while he’s a solid #1 WR on the field he is one more suspension away from a long vacation from the NFL. The Jags need to plan ahead for his departure. As documented, sack pressure must improve defensively. Another pass rusher in addition to the free agency signings is recommended. TE Lewis runs more cold than hot. Someone to assist him and eventually replace him is needed.