Denver Broncos

2013 RECORD: 13-3  

2012 RECO0RD: 13-3   

2111 RECORD: 8-8   

2010 RECORD: 4-12   

TEAM OVERVIEW: Just when did I realize Denver would not win the Super Bowl, spoiling a magical season for Peyton Manning and the Denver offense? How about when the opera singer came out in 49 degree weather without gloves (+250, historically nearly a sure thing for her) and football player Peyton Manning came out WITH gloves! Seattle proved way too physical for the precision Denver pass attack, and even worse, Seattle’s pass offense was able to pass at will against a suspect pass D. One loss does not mean Denver is a mediocre team, as actually they earned the right to be considered an elite team in ’13. What it does mean is that the team is far from complete, needing help at many defensive positions and in their special team units, which were average at best during the regular season and clearly exposed in the Super Bowl. The good news is that Peyton Manning is of course elite. The even better news is that few, if any teams can replicate how Seattle plays defense. The pieces are in place for another Super Bowl run, proving that key areas are addressed between now and opening day.

KEY STATS: Denver went off the charts on many offensive numbers. Their 606 points scored was 161 more than the 2nd best team (Chicago). They had 435 1st downs (+96 ratio) or 164 more than the Jags. They compiled a record 7,317 yards, more than 100 per game than their opponents. The 3rd down conversion rate was outstanding at 46%. Even the pass D was solid at 58.2% (6th). The fumble ratio was -7, but that can be correctable. With Peyton at QB the OL had it “easy”, and they allowed just 20 sacks. One area that reared its ugly head in the Super Bowl was kick return D.  In the regular season they were dead last, allowing 29.3 yards per return. Spread-wise, Denver was favored by 7 or more in 13-16 games so the old John Fox dog trends are meaningless. The general team trend worked, as Denver moved to 20-6 off a bye (11-2 off a loss/bye).  Denver was 1-0 on MNF (21-32 overall) and 1-0 as a HF on MNF (10-14 historically).

2013 DRAFT REVIEW: Denver was focused on DL and got the guy they wanted at #28 in Williams. It had been 16 years since they drafted a DL in the 1st round.  Williams was eased into the rotation. Ball opened ’13 as the 3^rd option at RB but may be the lead guy in ’14 if Moreno leaves. CB made sense at pick #90. Webster surprised me with a “solid” debut. I did not think King was the right choice at pick 161, as better players were clearly available.  He has to refine his route running and has not been good in traffic. Denver moved down from pick 125, adding a decent DE and an OT with picks 146/173. Better players and positions were available at 173 and 234. Denver signed ex-Charger Shawn Phillips after the draft.  He had 35 tackles and 10 sacks. Of the other free agents, ex-Jag DL Knighton (31-3) had some success, while Wes Welker went from New England and Tom Brady to Denver and Peyton Manning. That’s nice work if you can get it!

1-28, DT S Williams: Good person-team fit, but somewhat slow rookie stat line with 19-2.

2-58, RB Ball: Great vision, patient and can block. Limited speed. Big finish after a slow start.

3-90, CB Webster: Fast, but needs everything in front of him. 41 tackles but may lack interception skill.

5-146, DE Q Smith: Tore ACL, but can sack at any level and carries value once 100%. Nothing in ’13.

5-161, WR King: Can beat jam but inconsistent hand and lacks power. Now with Carolina.

6-173, OT Painter: Strong, but just a one year starter. Mostly a pick for OL backup depth. Sat in ’13.  

7-234, QB Dysert: Double digit picks every year. Sandlot type player sacked a lot. Few college wins..

2012 DRAFT REVISITED: Why was Denver so future oriented on draft day after using free agency to sign Manning and the others. Sure, drafts MUST be future oriented but using the 57th pick on a QB you hope NEVER plays seemed like a waste! In hindsight, drafting a nickel CB or top-5 safety might have won them the Ravens game. Starting CB’s were drafted in the early 60’s!  DT Wolfe had just 16 tackles and 4 sacks in year #2.  QB Osweiler sat. RB Hillman was taken too early and lost his back-up role to Ball. CB Bolden had 14 tackles and could see more action in ’14. OC Blake is with the Arizona practice squad. DE Jackson was rated 11th and selected in the 5th round. He had a 42-6 stat line. Rated LB Trevathan (6-188) was outstanding with a 128-2-3 interception stat line. He’s good, but maybe his #’s are inflated due to the other “talent” at LB for this team.

TOP STRENGTH AND WEAKNESS PRIOR TO THE DRAFT: With Peyton Manning, the strength is easily the pass attack.  While the DL and LB units need some attention, the kick return D was 32nd in the NFL and that was before the Super Bowl!

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES: Denver cares! Not much was done (or needed) offensively where WR Sanders tries to replace WR Decker and a pair of OG’s are gone.  Denver will get OT Clady back from an early injury. All areas on defense have seen changes.  DE Ware comes over from Dallas. Reliable LB Woodyard is gone, but Jamar Chaney has some talent. Denver released CB Bailey and saw Rodgers-Cromartie leave but adding CB Talib and safety Ward more than makes up for the losses. Electric but fumble prone kick returner Trindon Holiday must be replaced. Recent losses include RB Moreno and DE/LB Shaun Phillips, who was in Denver for just one season.

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: LB, run stopper either along the DL or at LB, extra RB if Moreno leaves, OG, CB, return specialists. Trevathan and the now departed Woodyard are “try-hard” guys but not elite. The back-ups carry only rotational value. The defense is decent vs. the run but needs another helpful body. If Moreno leaves another RB should be added. Denver appears to be short one OG. Adding Talib helps but he’s a bit injury prone and the remaining CB’s are not yet proven. Decker and Holiday are gone and they were the mainstays in the return game. Not listed above is WR. Caldwell was re-signed but Denver can do better as a 4th option behind Thomas, Welker and the newly signed Sanders.