Buffalo Bills:               

2013 RECORD: 6-10  
2012 RECORD: 6-10   
2011 RECORD: 6-10  
2010 RECORD: 4-12   

TEAM OVERVIEW: The late Ralph Wilson made a coaching change after the 2012 season, hoping ex-Syracuse coach Doug Marrone would point this team in the right direction. Buffalo came into ’13 with the longest NFL playoff drought. At season’s end, Buffalo once again finished 6-10, missing the playoffs. Does this mean the franchise is just spinning its wheels? While it remains unclear just how good a coach Marrone can be, the feeling is that Buffalo has a chance to make some noise in ’14 and beyond. 

Remember, they were as raw as possible at QB and haven’t had time to fix years of issues in stopping the run. Team talent is hardly elite, but not all that different from lower level playoff types. What’s missing is an attention grabbing draft haul. Should Buffalo improve on its past few draft grades a playoff berth in ’14, it is not out of the question.  

KEY STATS: In the ’13 report, I said “It was not all bad”. The same could certainly be said now. Buffalo was #1 in pass D at 55.3%. They were No. 2 in defensive sacks with an amazing 57! They were No. 2 in yards rushing at 144. They intercepted 23 passes. The issues tended to revolve around a rookie QB, an OL that was weaker in talent beginning ’13 and a run D that still has issues. The OL allowed 44 sacks, but part of the problem was the youth at QB. Defensively, the Bills had ranked 32nd, 28th and 31st vs. the run the previous three seasons. They “improved” to 23^rd allowing 4.4-129. Time of possession was at -3:16.  Buffalo entered ‘13 with a – point ratio and that usually means they would not improve their overall (over 75% accuracy).  Spread-wise, Buffalo is a horrid 6-35 after playing Miami. They dropped to 14-6 ATS after a bye.    

2013 DRAFT REVIEW: The move back from eight to 16 netted E.J. Manual and surprisingly efficient LB Alonso, who completely outplayed his rookie ranking. QB, LB and OL were the top needs, with WR next. OL was not addressed. Woods elevated WR play while Goodwin will likely be a role player. PK Carpenter was surprisingly efficient (33-36) so injured PK Hopkins has a fight on his hands. Buffalo did let “troubled” WR Da’Rick Williams go. As was said last year, Rogers reminds me of Mike Williams on Tampa. I gave Williams a 1st round grade athletically and a 7th round grade in his off-field decision-making. Rogers is better than Williams but was kicked off his Tennessee team. He is a flat out steal if he gets his act together (athletic, big, physical and was the Vols #1 guy). Free agency netted them LB Lawson (73-4) and decent DT Branch.

1-16, QB Manuel: Shows promise. Needs to learn how to read entire field. Sells fakes but ball comes out late.

2-41, WR Woods: Polished route runner caught 40 passes in a solid debut

2-46, LB Alonso: Not that strong but exceeded all expectations with 159 tackles, 2 sacks and 4 picks

3-78, WR Goodwin: Fastest draftee but at 5’9” more of a role player. 17 receptions/21.9 KR fine as rookie.

4-105, FS D Williams Versatile and can cover. Must wrap a bit better. Just 7 rookie tackles.

5-143, SS Meeks: Another with speed but didn’t make enough plays at Clemson. Two tackles in eight games.

6-177, PK Hopkins: NCAA career points leader missed ’13. Cold weather?

7-222, TE Gragg: Short but moves like a WR. Five games played in ’12 (knee). Five catches as ’13 rookie.

2012 DRAFT REVISITED: Buffalo had a choice of OT Reiff or CB Gilmore early.  Gilmore was the right choice then but his numbers dropped and he was healthy for just 11 games.  Glenn is a fixture at LT but my No. 2 rated OG still can learn a bit more in pass protection.  WR Graham (#69 pick, * rated) was overdrafted.  He caught 23, down from 31 as a rookie. LB Bradham is not a superstar but is doing fine with 108 NFL tackles.  NR (not worthy of a ranking at his position) CB Brooks has 28 NFL tackles and could be gone soon. OT Sanders was on IR in ’12 and cut prior to’13. The final three picks (two rated NR) are long gone.

TOP STRENGTH AND WEAKNESS PRIOR TO THE DRAFT: RB’s Spiller and Jackson continue to represent Buffalo’s strength. The run D has been a sore spot for years.

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES: Buffalo has been active in free agency, but many of their additions are more role players (RB’s Allen and Dixon, WR Barden, LB Nathan Williams, CB’s Burton and Graham) as opposed to actual starters. OG Chris Williams will start, and LB’s Spikes and Rivers will either start or be expected to contribute in various packages.  Losing safety Byrd was expected, but unfortunate.  Jim Schwartz is the new Defensive Coordinator.  Perhaps that will be a plus for the run defense but how will the move impact the overall defense? Buffalo finished 2nd in the NFL in sacks and interceptions in ’13. 

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: Run stoppers along the front seven, 2 DB’s, WR, RT.  Mario Williams, Marcell Dareus and Kiki Alonzo are solid players, but where is the toughness vs. the run on this side of the ball? FS Byrd must be replaced. The current DB back-ups are filler types and depth could be added even with the free agency acquisitions.  WR Stevie Johnson is inconsistent and Robert Woods is a 2nd year player. More is needed at WR.  RT Pears is not a quality starter.