It’s always a mixed blessing to write the picks column for the Super Bowl. On one hand, it’s the biggest game of the year. And this year we get a fantastic matchup of the No. 1 seeds in each conference and the generally acknowledged two best teams in the league.

On the other hand, it’s the last live, meaningful football until September. Also, the Super Bowl itself is a horribly overinflated spectacle of hype and media overkill that makes this past week the most dreadful time of the year in sports media. The game is as much of a merciful ending of the incessant over-analysis and bizarre media tie-ins as it is a championship football contest.

But what a contest this one figures to be! The Seattle Seahawks bring the top-ranked defense to the New Jersey urban swampland to face the Denver Broncos' top-rated offense.

The best regular-season quarterback in the Super Bowl era, Peyton Manning, just completed the single greatest passing season in NFL history for Denver. But the Seahawks have the best pass defense of the recent era, led by braggadocio corner Richard Sherman and the Legion of Boom secondary.

This Super Bowl is a study in contrasts. Manning is a surgeon in the pocket, hyper-accurate and methodical. He stands tall and knows from before the snap that his third read will be the correct one. His counterpart, Russell Wilson, is half a foot shorter and needs to move around to create throwing lanes. He’s prone to wild improvisational meandering scrambles, running more on one pass play than Manning does in a decade.

Yet both are incredibly effective. While the Seahawks don’t pass for a great deal of yards, some of that is a function that they throw the ball less than any other team. The Broncos average 16 more passes per game than the Seahawks. Yet Seattle finished eighth in offensive yards per play, meaning they maximize their bang for the buck when they do throw.

That brings me to the biggest matchup advantage in this game, which is Seattle’s passing offense against Denver’s passing defense. The Seahawks rank fourth in yards per attempt. While the Broncos finished 14th in yards per attempt allowed, they finished 18th opposing QB rating. That indicates they give up big plays, and that plays right into the hands of the Seahawks offense.

The balance of that Seattle offense will give Denver problems. Focus too much on shutting down Beast Mode Marshawn Lynch and the power running game, and Wilson will strike down the field off play action. Or Wilson will keep his eyes down the field as he scrambles and find one of his targets breaking free from the injury-plagued Denver secondary.

That’s right, I believe the key to this game is not the marquee matchup that you’ve been beaten over the head with for the last two weeks. Sure, the Manning vs. Sherman battle makes for a good story, but this game is going to be decided by how well the Denver defense can handle the balanced Seattle offense.

And I don’t think they can. They’re without top pass rusher Von Miller and top cover corner Chris Harris. Their interior DL has been a rotating cast of nothingness all season. As much as I love Champ Bailey, the veteran corner’s best years were done five years ago.

The Broncos will get some points, make no mistake about that. But unless Wilson gives them an unexpected turnover or two, Seattle will be able to score more. I think the cold weather impacts Manning enough that a couple of drives which would normally end in touchdowns wind up being field goals, and that makes the difference in the game.

Seattle 26, Denver 23

And now for the fun stuff, the prop bets. These are for entertainment purposes only, and they often are a lot more entertaining than the halftime show.

Super Bowl MVP: Marshawn Lynch

First player to score: Eric Decker

Net yards for both teams +/- 702.5: I like the under

Largest lead of the game +/- 14 points: go heavy on the under

Number of times Eli Manning is shown on TV +/- 1.5 times: under

Pam Oliver or Erin Andrews, which is shown first? Andrews, though I’m an unabashed Oliver guy

Number of times Manning says “Omaha” +/- 27.5: under. Watch him switch to “Topeka” or “Wichita”

Will Knowshon Moreno cry during the National Anthem? No

Lowest temperature during the game +/- 28 degrees: take the over, it never gets below 30

First song Bruno Mars sings: Locked Out of Heaven. I’ve actually heard that song.

Which is greater, LeBron James three-pointers on 2/1 or Wilson TD passes: Never bet against LeBron!

Manning completions vs. Carmelo Anthony points on 2/1: Melo, who will score 46

Will any Red Hot Chili Pepper be shirtless during their performance? Shirtless, absolutely. Be happy if one of them isn’t pantless…

Enjoy the Super Bowl and the ads!