Last Week: 11-5, getting back on track after an uncharacteristic down week. 136-72 on the season, counting the tie as a loss.

Gambling Update: Three of my four tickets came back winners, although the biggest wager (PIT -3) is the one which missed. I wagered 1250 Uzbek som, and collected 1500 in winnings. That leaves me with 7000 som after starting the season with 10,000. It’s going to be a cold winter in Tashkent if I don’t get hot soon!

Nine home underdogs this week, a truly astonishing number. Have fun watching! 

Thursday Game

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-10): Peyton Manning is five touchdowns away from tying Tom Brady for the most touchdown passes in a season in NFL history. He’s got a real shot at getting there in this one.

According to the good folks at Pro Football Focus, the Chargers rank 31st in pass coverage. They’re in the bottom-10 in pass rush ratings too. You need a subscription to view their premium statistics, but if you’re a football fan you need to ask for a PFF subscription for Christmas. Chargers fans might wish upon a star for a lockdown corner and a fearsome outside linebacker for Christmas. Without both, they’re not going to catch Peyton Manning and the Broncos.

Broncos 42, Chargers 30 

Sunday Best

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+2): The AFC East is on the line…sort of. New England clinches the division with the win, but they hold a 3-game lead on the Dolphins so it’s more academic. Miami is very much alive in the Wild Card race, however, and they desperately need the conference win to bolster their chances.

The Patriots needed an officiating miracle and a mental breakdown by Cleveland’s special teams to sneak past the Browns last week. I think the “playing to the level of competition” that these Pats do so frequently is a most dangerous game. General Zaroff will miss his Ivan, err, Gronkowski quite a bit. Rainsford has his own tight end weapon in Charles Clay, the Malay tiger catcher of the game.

If you don’t get those references, I suggest you revisit eight grade English class and the works of Richard Connell.

Dolphins 23, Patriots 20. 

Sunday Rest

New York Jets at Carolina Panthers (-11.5): The resiliency of the Panthers will be on display. Their eight-game win streak came to a rather abrupt ending at the hands of the Saints.

What intrigues me here is that the Jets run the same defense that those Saints do, and that scheme flummoxed Cam Newton and the Panthers. You can bet Jets coach Rex Ryan calls his brother, Saints Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan, for some insider tips on what worked and what didn’t.

The problem for the Jets is generating enough points to outscore the Panthers. Geno Smith had his best game in well over a month last week, but that was at home against a bad Raiders unit, and the numbers still aren’t very impressive: 16-of-25 for 219 yards, with one TD and one INT. On the road this year Smith has four TDs against 12 INTs and gets sacked at a much higher rate. The Panthers have the stingiest home defense in the NFL.

Can you say “defensive struggle”?!

Panthers 17, Jets 6

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+5.5): One of the more ponderous coaching decisions of the season is the curious QB switch in Oakland. Terrelle Pryor was showing legit promise, but the coaching staff has opted to ride out the season with undrafted rookie Matt McGloin. The Penn State product had one moderately successful game, but has been completely incompetent since.

The concept of McGloin facing the strong Chiefs defense makes the 5.5-point line laughable. Take the money and run.

Chiefs 30, Raiders 13 for 1000 som

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-6): Here is a great chance for the Colts to bounce back from a couple of ugly recent losses. In fact, they have a nice little pattern working in Indy. Since their bye week, the Colts have alternated blowout losses to non-divisional opponents (STL, ARI, CIN) with tight wins over AFC South foes. These very Texans were the first game in the pattern, and that game is a pretty typical Colts contest with Andrew Luck at the controls.

Houston led 24-6 late in the third quarter while Luck struggled mightily in his first game since his own errant pass tore Reggie Wayne’s ACL. Luck was 2-of-11 with three sacks and two dropped interceptions in the first half of that game. Then the Colts did what they always do--they turn into the best team in the league in the fourth quarter.

That was also the game where Gary Kubiak collapsed as the teams left the field for halftime. After coming back, the Texans coach was fired after last week’s loss to Jacksonville. I suspect the Texans might get a bump from the firing, as the players do really like interim coach Wade Philips. I also suspect it won’t quite be enough to win.

Colts 27, Texans 24 for 500 som

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (pk): I have a cockamamie theory that no team in the NFC North really wants to win that division. Just when good fortune seems to be shining down on one of the three competitors (Chicago, Detroit and Green Bay), they find a way to paint clouds all over the sunshine.

That leans my pick towards the Browns at home. Here are two other reasons why I like Cleveland. First is the revenge angle for Jason Campbell against his old team. Second is the matchup of Josh Gordon against what is, without Charles Tillman and Lance Briggs, the worst pass defense in the NFL. He figures to build upon his ongoing NFL record for most yards over a 4-game period. Gordon could get 225 yards and two TDs, and I think that will be enough to vault the Browns to a win

Browns 25, Bears 21

Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons (-6): These two teams are jockeying for the second overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft. Both are 3-10, and the loser here stays in contention to get that elusive No. 1 overall pick if the Texans somehow win.

Oh yeah, wait a minute…Washington doesn’t have a first round pick in 2014. They used it to help trade for Robert Griffin III, who will not even be active for this game despite being (relatively) healthy. Apparently Kirk Cousins and Rex Grossman are both better options for Mike Shanahan as he desperately tries to get fired. Rams fans will cheer for the Falcons to win, as St. Louis owns Washington’s pick. I think they’ll be happy.

Falcons 39, Ethnic Slurs 27

Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (+4.5): Trying to get accurate injury information on Adrian Peterson is impossible. My pick in this game hinges on AD’s availability, so I decided to search out the interwebs for the latest information on his foot injury. He left the field last week on a cart.

I read beat writers from both teams. I watched Vikings coach Leslie Frazier’s press conference. I even texted a Vikings staffer I know. Nobody gives a straight answer, because nobody really knows what his status will be. In light of that, the pick here is a tentative one.

Eagles 34, Vikings 24

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (+7): Seattle’s attacking defensive line is a terrible matchup for New York’s offensive line. Russell Wilson’s creativity and elusiveness are a bad matchup for the Giants back seven on defense. This one’s as close to a gimmie as a one touchdown road favorite can possibly be.

Seahawks 30, Giants 20 for 500 som

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5): The relatively modest line here strongly encourages heavy wagering on the 49ers, but I see it being pretty accurate. The Bucs, aside from two weeks ago, have been playing good football over the last few weeks. They have one of the best linebackers in the league in Lavonte David and one of the best defensive tackles in the league in Gerald McCoy. I think their defense will keep this game very interesting.

Unfortunately for Tampa, I don’t think Mike Glennon can outgun Colin Kaepernick. I don’t see Bobby Rainey outrunning Frank Gore. And I don’t see Greg Schiano outcoaching Jim Harbaugh. If you find a friend willing to give you a couple more points on a teaser, take ‘em, but straight up the Niners are a fairly safe pick.

49ers 22, Buccaneers 17

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2): This week the Bills came out and said they were going to simplify things for struggling rookie QB E.J. Manuel. That’s smart; the first-round pick looks overwhelmed and suffering from paralysis by analysis.

Back in the draft process, it was pretty clear that Manuel had a lot of talent but needed a great deal of refinement. He was not a NFL-ready product despite lots of experience at Florida State. The Bills have learned this the hard way. Buck up, Bills fans, he’ll be better going forward, perhaps a lot better. But right now you’re stuck with a bad quarterback on the road against the hottest team in the AFC.

Jaguars 20, Bills 16

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-7): As of writing time (it’s 7:09 AM Thursday), Aaron Rodgers is unofficially doubtful to play in this game. I know the Dallas defense is historically awful, but without Rodgers I’m not sure the Packers will be able to outscore the Cowboys. If Rodgers plays, the Packers win by three touchdowns but…

Cowboys 34, Packers 28

Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans (+3): One of the qualities I like about this Arizona team is that they do not lose to inferior teams. Their losses this year are to playoff teams San Francisco, Seattle, New Orleans and Philadelphia. There’s the opening loss to the Rams, who are a fair team and a terrible matchup issue (DL vs. OL). Other than that, the Cardinals take care of business against lesser teams. I think they do so once again in Nashville.

Cardinals 24, Titans 21

New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams (+5.5): If you like sacks, this is the game for you. Drew Brees avoids them pretty adeptly, but the Rams figure to be in his face frequently. On the flip side, Junior Gallette and Cam Jordan will harangue Kellen Clemens. Stop right there! The quarterbacks in this game are Drew Brees against Kellen Clemens. Before you go any further, chew on that for a moment. ‘Nuff said.

Saints 32, Rams 21

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3): Total gut pick here. The Bengals deserve to be favored, but I cannot see them winning in Pittsburgh. I foresee an off night for Andy Dalton and a big game for Emmanuel Sanders.

Steelers 27, Bengals 20 for 500 som 

Monday Nighter

Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions (-6): Nothing would surprise me with these Detroit Lions anymore. If they play smart football to their potential, they win this game by at least 20 points. Their defensive line is a nightmare matchup for Baltimore’s offensive line. But these Lions have an uncanny way of screwing things up. They’re clearly the more talented team here, but that doesn’t make them the lock to win that they should be.

Lions 31, Ravens 28 

No college games this week as the bowl season doesn’t kick off for a few more days.

Betting recap:

Kansas City -5.5 for 1000

Seattle -7 for 500

Houston +6 for 500

Pittsburgh +3 for 500