RealGM Analysis
2012 Record: 13-3
Point Differential: +120
Turnover Margin: +13
Sack Differential: -1
Offense
2012 Ranks
Rushing YPC: 24th
Passer Rating: 5th
3rd Down: 2nd
Scoring: 7th
QB: Matt Ryan finds himself in a situation that NFL fans will find very familiar. He’s an accomplished, highly regarded leader of a strong franchise after being a questionable (by many fans) high first round pick. His numbers are often excellent and he has proven his playoff mettle. Now he enters a contract season with a very legit chance to win multiple playoff games on a team where his performance is likely the biggest determining factor between division round loss and Super Bowl victory.
That was Joe Flacco with the Baltimore Ravens last season, and that worked out pretty well for both Flacco and the team. Falcons fans can only hope the same will be true with Matt Ryan. The potential is certainly there. In fact, Ryan has already made the big leap in effectiveness and production that propelled Flacco and the Ravens to a Super Bowl. He was outstanding in 2012, improving his completion percentage from the 60-61 percent range to a league-leading 68.6%. His yards per attempt also ticked up, but what stands out are the five 4th quarter comebacks and seven game-winning drives. Both of those led the league as well, and his 4719 yards ranked 5th in the increasingly pass-happy league. Ryan accomplishes this despite the Falcons ranking near the bottom in sack percentage over the last three years and almost never throwing the safe screens and dumpoffs to the running backs. With the “never won a playoff game” monkey now off his back, the only thing left for Ryan to prove is to win the biggest game of all. If he does, his next contract will dwarf Flacco’s. But matching last year’s awesomeness is not an easy task. Don’t be surprised if the yards per attempt and completion percentages dip a bit, and replicating all those comeback wins is almost impossible. It doesn’t mean regression for Ryan as a quarterback, merely a more statistical regression.
Should Ryan get hurt, the Falcons could be a in a world of trouble. Second-year project Dominique Davis, who went undrafted in 2012, is the incumbent backup. He is as divergently skilled from Ryan as you can get; a powerful scrambler with zero pocket presence who doesn’t read coverages well and relies on improvisational skills. His downfield arm strength is lacking as well. They knew he was a project and like the progress Davis has made, but to say he is NFL-ready is a major leap of faith. Rookie 7th round pick Sean Renfree is more Ryan-like stylistically and could have a long NFL career as a reliable backup and spot starter.
RB: Exit Michael Turner, enter Steven Jackson. In swapping veteran backs, the Falcons got more explosive and also opened up more of an opportunity to use the running back in the passing game.
There are two ways to look at this move. Optimists will compare Jackson to Turner, both over the last couple of seasons and what each has left going forward. In that prism, the Falcons made a wise decision and are better for it. Jackson is a year and a half younger and has more receptions in the last two seasons (80) than Turner has in his nine year career (70). Jackson is quicker through the hole, and judging by their final couple of months last year has much more juice left in the tank. He also brings the intangible hunger of being a celebrated veteran with zero playoff experience, as Jackson has more touches than any player in NFL history without making the playoffs. That’s the sort of X factor that a team like the Falcons can embrace.
The pessimist will point to Jackson’s declining skills. In the last two seasons Jackson has been a decidedly average runner. He’s no longer a threat to break off long runs, with just four topping 20 yards in his last 20 games. Jackson is not making the first defender miss as much as he used to, and the yards after contact have declined as well. There is major mileage on his tires; Jackson has more touches than any other active player. He’s been pretty durable but at 30 years old with all the hits he’s absorbed, that can go quickly. Fortunately for the Falcons, Jackson is here to put them over the top in 2013 and only 2013.
Jacquizz Rodgers returns as the #2 back, but he could see his workload increase. Last season he provided a spark in the playoffs, and he thrived as a receiver with 53 catches. Expect fewer receptions but more carries in 2013, particularly if he can show better vision with the handoff. Rodgers is explosive but needs to learn to maximize his runs and cut his losses when nothing is there. Jason Snelling provides the muscle on short yardage as a hybrid RB/FB after spending much of his career at fullback. He’s sure-handed and smart but not very elusive or explosive. Snelling’s role is somewhat dependent upon the health of fullback Bradie Ewing. The 5th round pick in 2012 missed his rookie season after blowing out his knee in preseason, but he brings a sledgehammer blocking quality that has never been Snelling’s forte.
WR/TE: The duo of Roddy White and Julio Jones is as good as any starting pair of wideouts in the league. Last season the top receiver baton passed from White to Jones, and the third-year dynamo is poised to run with it all the way to “elite” status. While White finished with more yards, it’s Jones that is the primary concern to opposing defenses. He finished with a better yards per reception, significantly better yards after catch numbers, and hit double digits in touchdowns with 10 to White’s seven.
Harry Douglas provides consistency in the short-range passing game from the slot. Douglas reliably gets open on drags, crosses, and hooks with his quickness and shiftiness. He offers very little after the catch and almost never runs a pattern beyond 12 yards. In the last two seasons he has caught 39 and 38 passes, respectively, with the yards per catch steadily declining to barely 10. Forty catches for 412 yards and three TDs seems like Douglas’ fate for 2013.
The depth chart at WR really plunges after Douglas. Drew Davis caught four passes last year while spending most of the season on the practice squad. The Oregon product is the only other receiver on the roster who has caught a NFL pass. He has some potential out of the slot but must better grasp the intricacies of the game. Former Mr. Irrelevant Tim Toone, who has mercifully shorn his white-man dreadlocks, and James “brother of Jacquizz” Rodgers are the most viable options beyond Davis. Suffice to say that if either White or Jones gets hurt, the Falcons will be actively shopping on the veteran free agent market. They almost never use four WR formations, with good reason beyond the scary lack of depth at wideout.
That reason would be Tony Gonzalez, who somewhat surprisingly returns for his 17th season after seriously pondering retirement. Gonzalez is still capable of dominating opponents on occasion (ask the Redskins and Saints) but has settled nicely into being the trusted intermediate range and hot read target for Ryan the past few seasons. Last year he topped 90 catches for the first time in his four seasons with Atlanta, seeing 136 targets, third most amongst tight ends. Gonzo is almost exclusively a receiver at this point as the Falcons seldom ask him to block in-line, but he occupies at least one linebacker and often a safety as well on every snap because of his still-credible threat as a receiver. This is almost certainly his last season, so look for the future Hall of Famer and arguably the greatest TE ever to leave it all on the field.
Just as with the wide receiving corps, the depth at tight end is embarrassingly thin. Chase Coffman enters camp as the #2. He has five catches in three seasons after being wildly overdrafted by the Bengals in 2010. He is essentially a tall, very slow slot receiver. It’s a matter of when, not if, fourth round rookie Levine Toilolo will blow past Coffman on the depth chart. Toilolo is a huge target at 6’8” but his best attribute is his blocking. He gives the Falcons a legit inline blocking tight end that they have not had, and that should help them in the red zone and short yardage situations. If he can pass protect, that’s even better, and I gave him positive remarks for that attribute in the scouting process.
OL: The recurring theme for the Falcons offensive line is an old Ozzy Osbourne tune. No, it’s not Crazy Train or Flying High Again. After last year’s resemblance to Suicide Solution, this year is summed up as (Going Thru) Changes. The Falcons are hoping that these changes mean No More Tears.
More than half the starters from two years ago are gone. One of the holdovers is left tackle Sam Baker, and he was universally regarded as the weak link in that line. The former first round pick is coming off his most consistent season, which breeds some optimism for the Atlanta faithful. Of course their last memory of Baker was his turnstile performance against the 49ers in the NFC Championship game. Speed off the edge remains a major issue for Baker, who has never been much of a run blocking force either. Baker’s inability to sustain blocks has been a major thorn in Matt Ryan’s paw.
Right tackle Tyson Clabo was very much a run blocking force, but the Falcons surprised many by letting him leave town. Second-year behemoth Lamar Holmes is penciled into the starting spot. Holmes didn’t play a snap at tackle in his rookie year, only getting scant reps as an extra tight end. He is competing with Mike Johnson, who has a little more experience at both guard and tackle. The team is forthrightly confident in Holmes, but based on what I saw of Holmes at Southern Miss I do not share their optimism. Expect a lot of growing pains and QB pressures off the right edge. I’d feel better about having a greenhorn at right tackle if there was an experienced, established right guard, but that position falls to Garrett Reynolds. He has started each of the last two years in that spot but has failed to finish either season, one because of being terrible and the other because of a back injury. Inordinately tall guards (he’s 6’7”) with back problems are scary.
Venerable veteran center Todd McClure unexpectedly retired, which this the interior of the line hard. McClure never made a Pro Bowl but was a solid, reliable starter for 13 years. His leadership will be greatly missed. Peter Konz will take over at center after spending his rookie season at right guard. He was a center at Wisconsin but is built more like a guard. The size change from McClure to Konz in the pivot is tremendous; McClure was barely 6’1” and played at no more than 285 pounds most years, while Konz is every bit of 6’5” and weighs at least 315. Still, the move into the middle might be a positive for Konz. He struggled with more complex assignments, and teams figured out they could attack his inside shoulder and have success. At center he has no inside shoulder, which means he’s more apt to square up his shoulders and get better technique. I worry about his ability to handle tackles with quickness.
Left guard Justin Blalock is the other long-term holdover. He’s a perfectly functional starter, generally more effective as a pass blocker than a run blocker but not deficient in that realm either. Blalock picks up blitzers nicely and excels at falling back to help Baker when he’s beaten inside. With all the changes, Blalock is the bedrock grizzled veteran, the Geezer Butler behind the rotating cast of Black Sabbath front men.
Depth is in the form of Mike Johnson and Philipkeith (yes it’s one word) Manley, with Joe Hawley somehow continuing to linger as well. Johnson can play either guard spot or right tackle, and has also lined up as a tackle-as-tight end. He’s an adequate 6th lineman. Manley was a feel-good story as a rookie, an undrafted free agent from Toledo who unexpectedly made the team, but he must improve his strength. Like Johnson, Manley can play guard and tackle in limited doses, though he has yet to take a regular season snap at this point. Hawley is the backup center, and it speaks volumes that he wasn’t even a consideration to take over there when McClure retired. If Baker or Konz go down to injury, this line goes from shaky to terrifying. Bat-eating Ozzy terrifying.
Defense
2012 Ranks
Rushing YPC: 28th
Passer Rating: 9th
3rd Down: 26th
Scoring: 6th
DL: If the Falcons have a clear weakness, it’s the pass rush from the front four. That weakness could be exacerbated by the loss of John Abraham, who has led the team in sacks in five of the last six seasons. His departure left Kroy Biermann as the top defensive end, and Biermann has never topped five sacks in a year.
Desperate for help, GM Tom Dimitroff sought out free agent, and Atlanta native, Osi Umenyiora from the Giants. The hope is that lightning strikes again with a New York outcast striking pay dirt in Atlanta. Umenyiora lost his starting gig thanks to a combination of injury, attitude, and declining skills. Now 31, he hasn’t made a Pro Bowl in six years. Other than thrashing the hapless lines in Pittsburgh and Green Bay last season, Osi proved Giants coach Tom Coughlin correct in reducing his role. The knee injury he suffered years ago robbed him of the burst that made him lethal. He’s still a capable rotational player, but I am very concerned the Falcons are expecting way too much from Osi Umenyiora.
A pair of rookies will be given as much responsibility as they can handle. Malliciah Goodman and Stansly Maponga represent the fourth and fifth round picks this year. Both were drafted much more on athletic potential than actual accomplishment. Goodman is dripping with desired athletic traits but seldom translated that to actual production at Clemson. If the proverbial light ever switches on, the Falcons have themselves a sturdy left end with annual 6-8 sack ability. He’s not close to that yet. Maponga very much resembles Dwight Freeney physically and flashed the same electrifying first step at TCU, but the comparison ends there. Maponga is very raw technically and is still feeling his way around a football field. The developmental challenge here for Defensive Line Coach Ray Hamilton is appetizing but imposing. Second-year talent Jonathan Massaquoi barely played as a 5th round rookie in 2012, but his role could expand if he shows progress in camp and preseason. He’s an OLB/DE tweener and, like Maponga, an African native with underdeveloped instincts. Hamilton’s task with Massaquoi is to get him to bring the fire and the pain, to play less passively. Cliff Matthews will factor in the depth mix as well. He could see more meaningful reps if the team plays more odd-man fronts, as Matthews’ skills are more befitting a rush linebacker than end.
At tackle, Jonathan Babineaux is a big key to the defense. He plays both tackle positions and lines up all over in Defensive Coordinator Mike Nolan’s varying schemes. Babineaux is one of the more underrated talents in the league. Some of that stems from the fact he doesn’t log great sack numbers, nor does he make splashy plays or draw attention to himself. His versatility and consistency are invaluable to the line. The other tackle position is a point of weakness, however. With Vance Walker now in Oakland, Peria Jerry and Corey Peters figure to split the role. That was much the case a year ago, when both split the starting role and played almost the same number of snaps. Peters is the better penetrator, but that often comes at the expense of run containment responsibility. Jerry is better against the run but that’s a relative comparison; he too can be pushed off the point of attack and lacks a great nose for the ball. Jerry likely gets the starting nod because Peters was downright terrible when given the opportunity late last year. Yet I expect they split the snaps once again, with Peters seeing more of the action on passing downs. 2012 7th rounder Travian Robertson could carve an increased role with Walker gone. If you’re looking for a longshot, Ohio University product Neal Huynh is an immovable object type of nose with practice squad potential as an undrafted rookie.
LB: All three starters return, led by dynamic, loquacious Sean Weatherspoon on the weak side. Weatherspoon is an incredibly fluid athlete with exceptional instincts for the linebacker position. He is a great weapon against the passing game. Few backers can match his coverage acumen, but Weatherspoon is also an adept blitzer with a keen sense of timing and positioning. His ability to range all over the formation provides the defense with the ability to deploy multiple looks. Spoon tied for the lead in tackles with fellow outside backer Stephen Nicholas, who is also quite good in coverage. The Falcons are a very difficult team to attack across the middle of the field and in the intermediate passing game because of these two and the safeties behind them. Nicholas will bite more on fakes and struggles against mobile quarterbacks, however. Both outside backers could do a better job of finishing tackles as well, as they combined for almost 30 missed tackles.
Akeem Dent succeeded tackling machine Curtis Lofton in the middle, and the Falcons defense changed as a result. Whereas Lofton never left the field, Dent played less than half the snaps. His between the tackles run defense is vastly inferior to Lofton’s, but unlike Lofton he can range further outside and drops into coverage more effectively. One thing the Falcons would like from Dent, and really from all the linebackers, is more impact plays; Dent has yet to force a turnover in his first two seasons, and in 2012 Weatherspoon and Nicholas combined to force just two fumbles and pick off one pass. Some of that is a function of the defense, but making more impact plays will only help the Falcons defense get off the field better.
There is a huge dropoff on the depth chart behind the three starters. Undersized Robert James, who is smaller than many safeties, is the only reserve backer with any experience at all. The rest of the group is college free agents who would stand little chance of making any other roster. The most intriguing of the bunch is Brian Banks, well-known for his unfortunate back story. The entire football world is rooting for Banks to overcome the error of jurisprudence that stunted his once-promising career. His best chance is to thrive on special teams.
Secondary: Atlanta returns one of the better safety tandems in the league in Thomas DeCoud and William Moore. This will be their fourth season together, and that sort of stability and familiarity is invaluable to the back end. Unfortunately, 2012 was pockmarked with more missed tackles and broken assignments than prior years. Staying more consistent and making more of the sure plays will help, particularly for DeCoud. The veteran Cal product often dove at feet unnecessarily or took wider tacks than needed against the run. When both are on their game the Falcons have a very strong duo that is better than the sum of its parts, but they need to bring that symbiosis more consistently in 2013.
Getting that improved play from the safeties is even more imperative because the Falcons are going to be heavily reliant upon two rookie corners this season. First round pick Desmond Trufant became a starter the second GM Tom Dimitroff submitted his name to the Commissioner, while 2nd round pick Robert Alford is being counted on to man the slot.
Trufant is similar to holdover starter Asante Samuel in that both are incredibly aggressive in going after the ball in the air. Both like to sit off and bait the quarterback. Unlike Samuel, Trufant enjoys physicality at the line…and often well beyond the 5-yard legal contact range. I thought he was overrated by many, who based lofty opinions on a couple of impressive Senior Bowl practices that were tailored to his skills. Look for Trufant to be very up and down as a rookie; I have little doubt he will lead all rookie corners in INTs and probably PDs as well, but he’ll also lead in penalties and give up his fair share of long plays. That’s what Samuel has been for years now, though in Atlanta he has been more disciplined in coverage. I like the idea of Samuel being a veteran mentor and imparting his wisdom on how to play certain receivers. As long as Trufant doesn’t pick up Samuel’s relative apathy for run support.
Alford will compete with Robert McClain for the nickel role, but expect to see a lot of both. McClain played very well as a pleasant surprise for a street free agent which neither the Jaguars nor Panthers could find useful. He’s undersized but plucky and closes very quickly on the ball. Alford is a little bigger and faster in the open field than McClain, but needs to prove he can anticipate routes and be up to the increased physicality of the NFL. There is a neat back story with Alford, a 25-year old rookie with Crohn’s disease, that cuts both ways; if he’s not good right away, it’s unlikely he has much upside because of his age and physical malady. I actually found him more impressive than Trufant during Senior Bowl week in terms of coverage beyond the first 5 yards, and he brings added oomph potential to the return game. In a division with the pass-happy Saints and aggressive Bucs, having reliable 3rd and 4th corners are a necessary evil, not a luxury. The Falcons should have that.
The depth beyond the top two safeties and four corners is very sketchy. 7th round rookie Zeke Motta, last seen being wildly exploited by Alabama in the BCS Title game, is fighting with Charles Mitchell and Shann Schillinger for the backup safety role. Mitchell took exactly two snaps as a 6th round rookie last year, while Schillinger missed all of 2012 on IR after playing only on special teams in his first two years. Motta brings better size and instincts to the table, but his range is extremely limited. Mitchell is a player who could develop into a reliable 3rd safety, but he must prove it on the field. Dominique Franks is penciled in as the 5th CB, but it’s more likely he gets waived just before the season as he was a year ago. If one of the rookies falters or gets hurt, look for Atlanta to be very active in acquiring a more reliable veteran presence than to lean on their current depth.
Special Teams: Kicker Matt Bryant is one of the better legs in the business. He made all four of his attempts from beyond 50 yards and the team trusts him in clutch situations. The coverage units were very solid, as the Falcons did not allow a return score all year and won the starting field position battle by almost five yards over their opponents. Punter Matt Bosher helped that cause by pinning 26 kicks inside the 20 against just four touchbacks. Bosher also proved invaluable on kickoffs, getting touchbacks on half his kicks. Opponents topped 50 punt return yards in a game just once, which tied for league-best status. He’ll need to be strong again because the lack of experienced depth at linebacker and safety means the coverage units will feature lots of new faces in new places.
The Falcons could stand to improve in the return game. Jacquizz Rodgers was largely humdrum as a kick returner, seldom breaking past the second wave. That was better than Dominique Franks fared on punt returns. He had just three returns longer than 15 yards and made a couple of poor decisions inside his own 10 yard line. There are few other options, with longshot WR Tim Toone the best of the bunch.
Forecast: Last season was one of the most successful in Atlanta history with 13 wins and a trip to the NFC Championship game after a dramatic playoff victory over the Seahawks. They were 8-0 at one point and captured the #1 seed in the playoffs. This was accomplished thanks to several clutch victories eked out with heroics from Matty Ice and Matt Bryant.
Recapturing that magic will not come easy. Winning close games is something that fluctuates from year to year (ask the Lions). The barometer for this team is to not play so many close games against lesser foes. The top end talent on offense is as good as any in the league, arguably better than any other team has at the skill position. The specialists are top notch. The linebackers and safeties are solid, and they have a playmaking corner in Asante Samuel. There is no reason for this team to be locked in last-minute games with the likes of the Raiders, Cardinals and Cowboys. They were just 3-3 within the NFC South, and every opponent in that tough division appears to harbor realistic playoff aspirations in 2013. The non-divisional schedule is more formidable too, with road trips to Green Bay and San Francisco and home dates with New England, Seattle, and Washington in addition to the regular slate of NFC South rivals.
I expect a little regression in terms of record. Sustaining the roll of good fortune in close games is difficult, particularly with the weakness at pass rush and inexperience at corner. Between that and the tough schedule, I don’t see this very talented team winning 13 games again. But they’re still more than talented enough to win double digits and capture the NFC South title once again. The Falcons finish 2013 at 11-5 and comfortably in the playoffs, and they will not be an easy out in the loaded NFC.
