I sat down here to do an initial 2014 NFL mock draft, but in the process of initiating that tedious task I found a problem. I struggled to figure out the order at the top of the draft. That got me to thinking: who is going to earn the ignominy of picking first?

A couple of obvious choices came to mind, but I decided to do a little research to clear my own biases. So I checked with a couple of different sports books to investigate the over/under win totals to get a better idea of what teams the professionals believe will rack up the fewest wins. 

To no surprise, the lowest over/under number belongs to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Between a new coaching staff, their ongoing quarterback issues, the injury question regarding Maurice Jones-Drew, and top receiver Justin Blackmon’s suspension, the line is set at +/- 4.5 wins. That’s fair for a team in the early stages of a major overhaul from being a mediocre (at best) franchise for most of the last decade. The odds-on favorite to be the worst team seldom disappoints, and it’s almost inarguable that no team needs the No. 1 pick more than the Jaguars. The harder part to ascertain for the Jaguars is whether they would pick Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater or South Carolina DE Jadeveon Clowney. The optimistic Jaguars' fan can point to the tantalizing proposition of having either highly talented player while not finishing dead last. 

The Jaguars are far from runaway favorites to be the worst team, however. Three other teams feature an over/under number less than six. The Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills and Oakland Raiders are all at +/- 5.5 or less, and it’s easy to see why the bookies set the low totals for those three.

I’ll be honest. The Raiders were the team I penciled in at the top of my list, and if I decide to get my gamble on this year, I’m going heavy on the under at 5. Oakland is suffering the unfortunate repercussions of the late Al Davis’ horrible mismanagement in his last few years, which caused a major depth chart purging. That has left the Raiders painfully short of talent at all sorts of positions. I don’t know how they are going to protect the winner of their QB derby (my early pick is rookie Tyler Wilson), how they will rush the opposing passer, or stop the run. If I’m Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie, my choice at No. 1 in 2014 is Clowney, arguably the best defensive end prospect since Bruce Smith.

Buffalo is another strong candidate. The Bills face uncertainty at quarterback, where a battle royal between castoffs Kevin Kolb, Tarvaris Jackson, and incredibly overdrafted rookie EJ Manuel will slug it out to play behind a line that lost its best player in Andy Levitre. The defensive depth chart is also loaded with castoffs from other teams, disappointments like Jerry Hughes, Manny Lawson, and Mark Anderson. Mario Williams and his massive contract is a huge albatross. The new head coach, Doug Marrone, comes from the college ranks at Syracuse and his NFL experience was with Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, and the high-flying Saints. He doesn’t have nearly that sort of weaponry in Buffalo, which could make the coaching curve a steep one. Also, the non-divisional schedule features the AFC North and NFC South, both chock full of dangerous foes. Still, the Bills do have appreciable talent at the offensive skill positions and in the secondary and could rise above picking in the top 10 if one of the quarterbacks (likely Kolb) steps up.

Cleveland also suffers from a lack of confidence in the quarterback, though at least they have a clear-cut starter in Brandon Weeden. The Browns also feature a rookie coach and are dramatically changing both the offensive and defensive schemes, which is often a recipe for hardship. I happen to think the Browns are going to cruise to at least 7 wins, but I buy the argument that they could tank with all the changes and pick at or near the top again. They would be picking Teddy Bridgewater if given the chance. 

Then there are the outliers, teams which I could see plummeting under the right, or rather wrong and unfortunate, circumstances. The San Diego Chargers have already lost their 2012 1st round pick Melvin Ingram to a torn ACL. They have scads of underperforming high draft picks across the defensive front, and they have major injury questions at wide receiver and running back. The offensive line remains a huge problem even with taking DJ Fluker in the first round.  But it would take a continued precipitous drop by QB Philip Rivers for the Chargers to earn the top spot. He’s well on that path, and if the new regime and team loses confidence in Rivers early, I can see this team bottoming out and selecting a new franchise QB in the next draft.

Arizona plays in a brutally tough NFC West, where the Seahawks and 49ers are, on paper, the two best teams in the NFC and the Rams are poised to make a big leap forward as well. They also have QB issues, taking a risk on Carson Palmer resuscitating his career behind a shaky OL (two rookies will start at guard) with no discernible running game to help him out. That combination pushed the Raiders to the brink of the first pick a year ago, and like the 2012 Raiders the Cardinals also have big questions in the pass rush department. The Cardinals are one of the few teams to already see betting line movement; Arizona began at +/- 6.5 and is down to 6 at one book and 5.5 at another. The big money sees impending doom. It will be interesting to see if new coach Bruce Arians can work the magic like he did with the Colts a year ago and keep this team from contending for the worst record in the league. Should the Cards sink to that depth, they would be wise to consider Texas A&M tackle Jake Matthews as well as Clowney and Bridgewater.

And then there is the completely irrational choice, the shocking candidate that nobody expects to stink. My choice here is the Pittsburgh Steelers. No, I’m not hating on the Terrible Towels. It would take a fairly complex series of events for it to happen, but they are not all that improbable when taken separately. Say Big Ben gets hurt again and misses the bulk of the season. So does Troy Polamalu once again. Nobody steps up at wide receiver to replace Mike Wallace, and Heath Miller is unable to fully recover from his 2012 injury. They miss James Harrison more than expected, as neither Jason Worilds nor Jarvis Jones proves capable of more than 3.5 sacks and LaMarr Woodley has another disappointing season on the other side. The young offensive line fails to gel, a bad situation in a division loaded with excellent defensive lines in Cincinnati, Baltimore, and even Cleveland. If even half those issues, with Roethlisberger and the pass rush paramount among them, all converge, I can see the Steelers unexpectedly hitting rock bottom for a year. Of course the Steelers are currently at +/- 10 wins for a reason, and I highly doubt they finish with less than 7 wins again. But it’s not inconceivable. I have to think they would take Clowney even though he is a natural 4-3 end and the Steelers run a 3-4 defense.