Last Week: 9-7. 128-64 on the season, a perfect .666. In honor of that, please listen to some Iron Maiden as you read this. My personal choice is En Vivo Live in Chile, with an epic performance of Fear of the Dark. 

Thursday

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: We are approaching the time of year where many a fantasy footballer goes from loving Peyton Manning to desperately scrambling for an alternative. It’s not that Manning’s play declines in December; far from it. But the Broncos have already clinched the AFC West, just as so many of Manning’s Colts teams wrapped up AFC South titles with multiple games to play. Manning could very well play no more than one half in any of their remaining games, turning him from a fantasy must-have to a tenuous Plan B.

It probably won’t happen this week for rest purposes like it will the next three, but it could happen in this one from blowout purposes. The Raiders were beaten in Oakland last week by Cleveland a lot more thoroughly than the 20-17 final score would indicate. Carson Palmer can’t throw with confidence to anyone but Brandon Myers, and he leaves too many throws where defenders can make plays. I suspect he’ll be seeing a lot of Von Miller, who quietly is relishing the chance to declare his candidacy for Defensive Player of the Year on national television. Broncos 35, Raiders 20

Sunday Games

Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals: Don’t look now but the Cincinnati Bengals are hot. They’ve won four in a row, in no small part because their running game has taken off. BenJarvis Green-Ellis has shown a newfound propensity for breaking longer runs, while the right side of the offensive line has really gelled despite some injury woes. In the win over San Diego, they were consistently blasting Chargers defenders well off the line of scrimmage and maintaining the blocks nicely. It’s taken some of the burden off Andy Dalton and AJ Green, and the Bengals are far better for it. 

Dallas is also playing well, having won three of four to resuscitate their playoff aspirations. Tony Romo has been very good in those games, having a cumulative QB rating over 104 and throwing nine TDs with just two INTs. Dez Bryant has been more potently reliable during this run, with a pair of 145 yard efforts and six TDs. It’s been real progress, but it comes with a bit of an asterisk.

In those games, the Cowboys have played the Eagles twice, the Browns, and the Redskins. The Browns and second Eagles games were both close wins over teams that had together won exactly one game in their last 10. The Redskins hung 38 on them and held a 35-13 lead in the 4th quarter, not exactly a great effort for Dallas. They haven’t worn big boy pants very capably this season, going 2-6 against teams that are currently .500 or better. I don’t see that changing against the balanced, confident Bengals. Cincinnati 30, Dallas 27

Baltimore Ravens at Washington Redskins: In the world of torn muscles and tendons, it’s apparently much less devastating to tear your biceps than your triceps. Terrell Suggs tore his ample biceps in the Pittsburgh game Sunday, but he’s slated to play against the Skins. Ray Lewis tore his triceps two months ago and still won’t make it back onto the field for the battle of the BW Parkway. I’ve never torn a muscle (I’m a bone breaker) but I can’t imagine there is that much of a difference between the front and back of the upper arm. Either Suggs is insane or Ray Lewis is a wimp. I’ll let you call Ray Lewis a wimp and try to collect all your teeth from the blood-spattered ground next to your unconscious carcass. 

The Redskins have some significant injury issues of their own, and I think it costs them this game. Corner Deangelo Hall is apparently from the Terrell Suggs School of Pain Management and will give it a go despite being on crutches and in a walking boot Wednesday morning. Fellow corner Cedric Griffin is the latest Adderal addict to get suspended for four games, and that depleted secondary will allow enigmatic Joe Flacco to have enough success to eke out the win. Ravens 27, Redskins 26

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs finally catch a break after back to back games against the Falcons and Broncos. Even in loss, they acquitted themselves nicely as a team with a strong offense that plays hard on every snap. Tampa just doesn’t have the depth or breadth of top-end talent to beat the better teams without catching some breaks, and neither Atlanta nor Denver gave them enough scraps to make a full meal.

In this game, Tampa gets to be the big dog. It can be difficult to handle the step up from being the ankle nipper to the master of the dog park, particularly for a young team with an inexperienced coaching staff. As down as the Eagles are right now, and they’re as down as a team can get, they still present a challenge. Other than the secondary, the team continues to play as well as it can; they’re just lacking talent thanks to injuries. The Bucs must not let up, because the Eagles will fight hard. Every year there are examples of bottom-feeding teams rising up and playing spoiler to a potential playoff team. On a hunch, I think this is one of those occasions. Eagles 27, Buccaneers 25 

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: Chicago is experiencing the cold downside of relying so heavily on so many older players on defense. Brian Urlacher (34) is likely out for the season with a hamstring injury. Lance Briggs (32) looked visibly slowed in the loss to Seattle last week, twice unable to corral Russell Wilson when he had him in his sights. Ends Israel Idonije and Julius Peppers (both 32) looked winded and sluggish as the Seahawks kept driving the ball late. The defense as a whole was slow to react to the running game, particularly chasing the mobile Wilson.

Now they get Adrian Peterson, who just torched the Packers for over 200 yards. Just as key for this game, however, is Christian Ponder and his legs. Ponder isn’t as elusive as Wilson or Aaron Rodgers, but he runs pretty well and generally picks his spots wisely. The dropoff from Urlacher to Nick Roach, who moves from SAM to the middle, is significant in terms of range and power. The ripple effect is also dramatic; Geno Hayes takes over at SAM even though he’s an undersized WLB who has struggled in limited run this year.

Look for Vikings TE Kyle Rudolph to continue his strong run, and a potential return of Percy Harvin would really tilt the scales. Minnesota seizes the opportunity to take down a wounded Bears. Vikings 26, Bears 20

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: A lot of Colts fans took umbrage with my analysis of Andrew Luck’s performance against the Lions. Apparently winning the game caused the state of Indiana to cast a blind eye to Luck’s struggles before the final two drives. His QB rating was in the 60s before the TD pass to Lavon Brazill. Between the first scoring drive and that drive with less than four minutes to go in the game, his QB rating was in the 30s, with five 3-and-outs and three INTs. Those are the kind of numbers you expect from a bumbling rookie, not Andrew Luck.

But Luck shined when it counted most. Jake Locker would be wise to emulate his counterpart in this game, as he continues to struggle with the same accuracy and INT issues that plague Luck. Unlike Andrew Luck, however, Locker has yet to show a knack for raising his game in crunch time or rallying his team. Since his return to the lineup three weeks ago, Locker has completed less than 50% of his passes and thrown five INTs while losing two fumbles. The most disturbing aspect of Locker’s game is a carryover from his college days, his utter incompetence on 3rd downs. He completed just over 50% of his 3rd down attempts at Washington, and on 3rd and between 6-10 yards he was downright egregious: 30-for-69, 408 yards, 20 conversions on 71 chances as he was also sacked twice (thanks cfbstats.com for the archives!). His numbers in the NFL show little improvement; his completion percentage, yards per attempt, sack percentage, and INT percentage are all significantly worse on 3rd down than 1st or 2nd down. They’re even worse on 3rd down when the team is trailing, or precisely when Luck has been at his best. Where Andrew Luck rises to the occasion, Jake Locker fails.

Frequent readers know I’ve been hard on Jake Locker over the years. Honestly, I don’t hold anything against him personally. I’ve only met him by shaking his hand, but literally everyone who knows him raves about how great a guy he is. Nobody ever has a negative thing to say about Jake Locker the man, and I do think his football intangibles are excellent. So instead of continuing to slam Locker, I’ll instead offer him some help. Work on anticipating throws over the middle better. Be more flexible with progressions on shorter yardage plays, instead of trying to force the first one. Learn to throw a ball away and live to make another play. On deeper throws, focus on throwing to a bigger circle instead of aiming it for the center of a donut. Pretend it’s 1st down when it’s 3rd down. Better yet, watch and learn from Andrew Luck as he sends your team to yet another loss. Colts 30, Titans 24

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars: Kudos to Jets coach Rex Ryan for taking my advice regarding his QB problem. As I laid out in this week’s third cent:

“Having said that, I think Rex Ryan goes back to The Sanchize, if only to cement the gig for McElroy as Sanchez bombs once again and the youngsters rides in to the rescue with relative competency.”

That’s exactly what Ryan has done, naming The Sanchize the starter, albeit quite tepidly. Many believe the move was forced upon him, but I see what he’s doing. Rex Ryan is playing up how much he wants Sanchez to build expectations, which makes it all the easier to yank him when he’s 3-for-10 for 14 yards and an INT and the Jets are losing 7-0. The stage will be perfectly set for Greg McElroy astride his white horse to come in and engineer another epic comeback win over a woefully inept opponent. The Jets win 13-10 and the Big Apple goes gaga over McElroy. Rex Ryan, you sir are pulling off a cunning stunt! Jets 13, Jaguars 10

San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers: Big Ben may or may not play in this one, which makes the forecast quite cloudy. Then again, maybe it doesn’t. The Chargers embody the negative body language and defeated pall of an underachieving team playing out the string under a lame duck coach. Even in moments when they’ve played well, there is always a sense about them that they know something bad will happen and they’re going to lose. This game is in Pittsburgh, never an easy place to visit. San Diego cannot protect Philip Rivers, who is probably the least-athletic quarterback in the league and is largely unable to help himself buy time. Even if Charlie Batch gets the nod for the Steelers, he proved last week he can drive the ball down the Ravens throats to steal a win. He would find much less resistance with the San Diego defense, which is still dangerous but inconsistently challenging. Pittsburgh 20, San Diego 14

Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns: I can’t imagine what the Chiefs are dealing with right now with the whole Jovan Belcher incident. But I do think going on the road together as not just a team, but a family, will be very good for their collective psyche. It’s a chance to escape from the ugliness and cold reality of the senseless, selfish violence.

They got the win last week, no doubt rallied by that same emotional escape. But I don’t think it persists. In fact, I believe the opposite will happen. It’s often easier to put something horrible away in the immediacy of the incident. You haven’t had time to really process it, to absorb the totality or full emotional impact of the incident. This game falls in the time frame where that actualization has had a chance to soak in. I’m certainly no psychologist, but that’s how I deal with negative incidents and deaths of loved ones. At first I’m pretty poised and composed, but after a few days I struggle to function. Not everyone grieves or processes tragedy in the same way, but I think it’s only human for the Chiefs to have a letdown here. I also don’t think Brady Quinn will be able to handle the outpouring of negativity directed his way from the Dawg Pound, which never liked him much during his time in Cleveland. The Browns get their third win in a row. Cleveland 24, Kansas City 16

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers: Last week showed the downside of Jim Harbaugh’s decision to install Colin Kaepernick as his starting quarterback over Alex Smith. Kaepernick lost the Rams game almost singlehandedly with a grounding penalty in the end zone and one of the most ill-advised pitches this side of Ricky Vaughn sans glasses. Such is the quandary for Harbaugh; Kaepernick gives him a better chance to win but also a better chance to lose while he learns the ropes on the go.

This is where I admire the organizational confidence in San Francisco. They trust in Kaepernick’s ability, but they also trust that the team around him is strong enough to handle his ups and downs. While that wasn’t true in the overtime loss to the Rams last week, this time is different. The players want to show their new leader they have his back and they don’t need him to be great to win. As much as Kaepernick threw away last week’s game, the defense had chances to make plays and couldn’t do it. That won’t happen two weeks in a row, not with this much talent and pride. This one could get ugly for the visiting Dolphins, who have lost four of five and have looked out of sorts offensively in doing so. San Francisco 29, Miami 12

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: The Cardinals are well on track to be the first team to lose double digit games after winning its first four. Seattle is probably the last place they could possibly break out of their 8-game funk. Do whatever you can to get Seattle’s defense for your salary cap fantasy games this week, as they could very well score more points than any quarterback. Even the change back to John Skelton from Ryan Lindley offers little hope for Arizona. It’s sort of like going from being homeless to living in a tent village in a refugee camp. Seahawks 23, Cardinals 6

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: If you need an example of the order of disrespect afforded the 11-1 Falcons, check the line for this game against the 3-9 Panthers, who just lost to a 1-win team in Kansas City. The Falcons are favored by just 3.5, or three points less than the 4-8 Browns are favored over those lowly Chiefs. Basically what that is saying is that Vegas believes the Browns are as superior to the Chiefs as the Falcons are to the Panthers, who once again lost to those Chiefs.

I’m not buying it. Even though the Falcons have clinched the NFC South, this is a chance to wrap up home field advantage and perhaps the #1 seed. There is also a different sort of edge to the Falcons, a scrappiness that hasn’t been there in previous seasons. Even though they’re playing for January, they’re treating every game as a dress rehearsal for those playoff games. Carolina will find that out here. I think Cam Newton & Co. will have some success, but Matt Ryan & Co. will have more. Falcons 33, Panthers 24

St. Louis Rams at Buffalo Bills: My son Layne is trying to help me with my picks this week, and this has led to a tangential grammatical battle. The 7-year old has tersely advised me that I should not use the contraction “It’ll”. I tend to lapse into that drawl more than I should, often in conjunction with using “y’all” and “ow-rite”. Apparently his second grade teacher is stressing proper grammar and he has embraced being the Diction Police. There aren’t many things more humiliating than being a professional writer and having your verbiage corrected by a kid who has to be repeatedly reminded to stop putting foreign objects up his nose.

At least we both agree on the outcome of this game. I think the Bills win in part because of the inclement weather forecasted for the area, which will negatively impact the domed Rams a lot more than the home Bills. Layne thinks the Bills will win because he’s heard me say so many negative things about Sam Bradford. It’ll be okay this week, Bills fans. Buffalo 21, St. Louis 17

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants: The New York Football Giants are the chronic 30% chance of rain in my forecast. In Dr. Isaac’s meteorology classes at Ohio University, we learned about the phenomenon of the 30% chance of rain. It’s what forecasters use when they’re pretty sure of a nice day but cannot rule out the chance of a rogue weather event. Most of the time the 30% chance passes without incident and the day is just fine. But sometimes that 30% winds up turning into a torrential downpour that ruins not just that day but keeps the next couple of days soggy as well.

That is the New York Giants. I feel quite confident in the Giants ability to beat any other team on any week, but there is always about a 30% chance that the Giants are going to play a game like they did last week: uninspired, mistake-prone, and the sort of loss that lingers in the memory longer than their wins do. The Giants should win this game and Eli Manning should have a huge game against the defensively challenged Saints. But there is the 30% chance that their offensive line woes (now minus Sean Locklear) and the vacillating effectiveness of their secondary will cause the Saints to rain down upon them the way Samuel L. Jackson describes vengeance in Pulp Fiction. The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides! Giants 30, Saints 28

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: I’ll keep this one simple, in the spirit of brevity. The Packers have beaten the Lions 20 straight times in Wisconsin, the longest streak of home dominance over one opponent in NFL history. The streak predates Jason Hanson’s arrival in Detroit. The starting QBs in the last Lions win in Wisconsin were Erik Kramer and Mike Tomczak, who I honestly do not recall ever playing in Green Bay. This particular Lions team will find a way to make the game interesting but keep the humiliating losing streak rolling. If by some freak of nature you’re still alive in survivor fantasy games and haven’t burned the Packers yet, now is the time. Packers 33, Lions 28

Monday

Houston Texans at New England Patriots: What a way to end a football weekend! This matchup of two AFC behemoths is dripping with intrigue. How will the Patriots impressive OL fare against the mightily effective pass rush of JJ Watt & Co.? How will a depleted Texans secondary manage to hold up against Tom Brady & Co.? Can the Patriots strong run defense contain the dynamic Arian Foster? Will Matt Schaub show his greatness once again on the national stage?

This is a great validation test for the 11-1 Texans. As strong as the Texans are at +14, the Patriots are an incredible +24. No team has turned the ball over less, and only the Bears have taken away the ball more than the Patriots. But the Patriots’ avoidance of self-defeat goes beyond the freakish turnover margin. The Patriots rank 1st in punt return differential. They rank 7th in penalty yardage differential. No team gets to the red zone as often as the Patriots (it’s not even close; the Pats have 56 to the 2nd ranked Giants with 49), and the Pats rank 3rd in TD percentage once they get there. As good as the Texans defense is on 3rd down (they rank 1st), the Patriots have the best 3rd down offense.

All that means that the Texans are going to have to play a very strong, mistake-free game with their playmakers on both sides making a lot of plays. They can do it, but I’m not sure they will do it. Either way, this is one of the best regular season games on the schedule all year and I strongly encourage you to watch it. Patriots 27, Texans 20