It’s Christmas weekend, which means a shift in the NFL schedule. Most games are on Saturday with a select few on Sunday, which is nominally a day for the NBA to rule the sports world. Enjoy your Christmas, Hanukkah or whatever holiday you celebrate!

As a quick programming note, my family is celebrating Christmas on Saturday, so I won’t see any of the action in real time. Because of this, the $.10 for this coming week will be just $.05.

Last Week: 12-4, a jolly good week. 144-73 on the season forecast, with ties counted as losses.

Thursday Night

- New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5): In the last two weeks the Giants have knocked off the No. 1 (Dallas) and then-No. 2 seed (Detroit) in the NFC. They’re doing it in a sustainable way, with a balanced and well-coordinated defense leading the way. Meanwhile, the Eagles have lost eight of nine and just missed on the spoiler chance last week in Baltimore. I don’t think this game is particularly close.

Giants 27, Eagles 10

Saturday Games

- Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+3): For no other reason than the game is outside, I like the Panthers. Sometimes you just ride the winds aloft…

Panthers 31, Falcons 28

- Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3.5): Rumors abound Rex Ryan is on the way out in Buffalo. Pro Football Weekly even intimated that Tom Coughlin (?!) is slated to replace the beleaguered blowhard.

Will his players respond? Can they turn it up one last time for the ultimate player’s coach? And will it even matter, as the Dolphins are the superior roster and desperately clinging to playoff life with impressive backup QB Matt Moore leading the charge? I wouldn’t touch this one as a gambler, way too many contrasting computer models.

Bills 23, Dolphins 21

- Washington at Chicago Bears (+2.5): After losing at home Monday night to Carolina, Washington finds itself in desperate straits to keep their playoff hopes alive. Chicago is dangerous despite the sorry record, and they have not quit on either side of the ball. They nearly had the comeback stunner against Green Bay, but a poor coaching decision from John Fox tripped the Bears up. So did allowing the offense to isolate Jordy Nelson on undrafted rookie Crevon LeBlanc. The rookie hasn’t been bad, but he’s overmatched against speedy and talented wideouts. Guess what Washington has in plenty? Kirk Cousins throws for an inefficient but effective 337 yards and 3 TDs in a Washington win punctuated by big plays.

Washington 29, Bears 24

- San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns (+7): Last week against the Bills sure seems like the last chance Cleveland had to win a game. The Chargers do have a fairly high degree of vulnerability, playing in the cold and already in “next year” mode themselves. Let’s just say it would surprise me, but it wouldn’t shock me if the Browns pull it off. They’ll need help from Chargers QB Philip Rivers, who has proven complicit with the INTs lately.

Chargers 27, Browns 20

- Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-6.5): Just a gut hunch here that Minnesota’s defense has one last death-gasp of a great effort against their archrival. Unfortunately for Xavier Rhodes and friends, the Vikings putrid, punchless offense might not score in Green Bay.

Packers 16, Vikings 6

- Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5): Having an interim coach changes the reliably simplistic equation with the Jaguars. For five straight weeks I’ve written the exact same thing: As long as Blake Bortles is the starting quarterback, Jacksonville will lose. And it hasn’t been wrong yet. But Interim Coach Doug Marrone might have the cojones to yank Bortles if he’s 10-for-24 for 59 yards with an INT at halftime--which is entirely possible.

The Titans have too much riding on this game to blow it, and their offensive line stacks up nicely against Jacksonville’s defense. I can’t see Coach of the Year candidate Mike Mularkey and his troops choking here. But if Marrone yanks Bortles, I’ll bet on the Jaguars to cover. If he plays the full game, the Titans romp.

Titans 25, Jaguars 17

- New York Jets at New England Patriots (-16.5): I worry about the Patriots covering such a massive spread against a division opponent, but then again the Jets are rotating fourth-string quarterbacks on offense and have fallen off a cliff on the back end of the defense.

Patriots 34, Jets 10

- Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders (-3.5): Just when everyone was ready to bury the Colts, they go and play their best game in the Chuck Pagano era in annihilating the Vikings in Minnesota. Can they summon the sharp blocking, outstanding short-area coverage and disciplined play once again against a better all-around Raiders team? Let’s just say most Colts fans would be quite surprised, and perhaps a little dismayed, that Pagano finally figures out this coaching thing in time to save his job.

Raiders 30, Colts 24

- San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5): San Francisco won the first meeting 28-0 back in Week 1. Even though the Rams have devolved into a toothless mess and got Jeff Fisher fired, that still ranks as one of the most improbable outcomes of the season. These Niners are that bad. This game features two combined offenses who don’t have one wide receiver who would make most other teams’ active roster, which doesn’t help the bottom-5 offensive lines and bottom-5 quarterbacks. Good grief, what an unappealing game…

Rams 19, 49ers 12

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3): Even though the Buccaneers lost in Dallas last Sunday night, I still expected them to be favored in this game. They went toe-to-toe with the Cowboys, showing they were a legit rising force. One week earlier they punished these same Saints, smothering Drew Brees and the offense 16-11.

New Orleans rediscovered the offensive mojo last week, hanging 48 on Arizona while picking up a season-high 33 first downs. Their offense has been volatile and unpredictable. In the last five weeks the saints have scored 20, 49, 13, 11 and 48. Tampa’s defense has allowed over 21 just once--last Sunday--in the last six games. I’ll go with the more reliable unit and team, and that is the visitors with playoff hopes very much on the line.

Buccaneers 33, Saints 24

- Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-8.5): Seattle at home in a game they need to secure a playoff bye and stay in the race for the No. 1 playoff spot…yeah, the Cardinals aren’t stopping that.

Seahawks 30, Cardinals 20

- Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-2.5): Three times this decade the Texans and Bengals have faced off in December or later. All three times the Texans have prevailed, and that includes two playoff games as well as the game which got Houston into its first-ever playoff game, and they did this with backup T.J. Yates at quarterback. This Bengals team is the weakest in years. Even with QB issues in Houston right now, I think they prevail.

Texans 20, Bengals 17

Sunday Games

- Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5): The AFC North title is on the line, and these two teams are almost inarguably the fiercest rivals in the NFL. The games between the Ravens and Steelers take on a college rivalry atmosphere.

Baltimore won the first meeting 21-14, but it was a very odd game. The Ravens scored on a 95-yard catch-and-run from Mike Wallace and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. Those things are rare, like hitting the Pick 3 in the lottery twice in a week. They helped catapult Baltimore to a 21-0 lead in what was otherwise a very evenly played game.

I expect the evenness of that game back in early November to carry over here. How even was it? Check out the team stats, courtesy of Pro Football Reference:

Those big, fluky plays from Baltimore carried the day for the Ravens. With top corner Jimmy Smith likely out for Baltimore and the Steelers in surprisingly good health, I see the big play pendulum swinging the other way. The youngsters in the Pittsburgh secondary, notably Sean Davis, have stepped up since that game too.

Steelers 19, Ravens 16

- Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5): I was tempted to go with some clichéd “heart of a champion” vein here as the Broncos face the very real possibility of missing the playoff with a loss here. But the plain fact it, Kansas City is simply the better team. Their offense is better. Their special teams are better. And they’re close enough on defense to handle Denver’s sputtering offense, which has scored 33 points in the last three weeks combined. Unless Alex Smith and the Chiefs offense gets unusually careless, the home team prevails. Von Miller and the Denver defense have a way of making those things happen though, so it’s far from a given.

Chiefs 20, Broncos 17

Monday Night

- Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-8.5): The Lions desperately need a win, but history is decidedly against them in their quest to win the team’s first division title since the NFC expanded to four divisions. Dallas continues to play well on both sides of the ball, while the Detroit offense has slowed to a crawl. Matthew Stafford sorely misses RB Theo Riddick, especially in the red zone. The pacing and offensive line play has both regressed for the Lions, too.

With top CB Darius Slay likely out, the Lions' defense is at a big disadvantage as well. Normally he handles the likes of Dez Bryant pretty well. Detroit plays bigger receivers nicely, but it’s been guys like Cole Beasley in the slot who have destroyed them all year. With Slay out, now they can’t stop Bryant either. That doesn’t even get to the issues MVP candidate Ezekiel Elliott presents. Then there’s the officiating angle. The last time these two teams played in Dallas, the Cowboys won a playoff game thanks to a fabricated, bogus call. Even Dean Blandino, the league’s Head of Officiating, admitted as much while simultaneously defending his appearance on Dallas owner Jerry Jones’ party bus.

Detroit fans, and I’m one of them, have seen this team on the wrong end of the officiating hose the last two weeks. From the illegal face to the hands against Chicago to Stafford being slammed to the ground on a play blown dead and an obvious offensive pass interference call on the game-sealing Giants TD ignored last week, bad and biased officiating follows Detroit like an angry stray dog which won’t go away no matter what you do to shoo it. Dallas shouldn’t need the officials’ benefit to win here, but it’s nice they’ve got that in their back pocket just in case.

Cowboys 33, Lions 17

Bowl Games
Bahamas Bowl - Eastern Michigan 39, Old Dominion 35

Armed Forces Bowl - Navy 46, Louisiana Tech 37

Dollar General Bowl - Troy 20, Ohio 17. Apologies to my fellow Bobcats, and thanks to Frank Solich and the players for another successful year and the MAC East title

Hawaii Bowl - Middle Tennessee 33, Hawaii 14

Quick Lane Bowl - Boston College 24, Maryland 20. I’ll be at this one.

St. Petersburg Bowl - Mississippi State 28, Miami OH 21. With the win the Bulldogs will improve to 6-7. Too. Many. Bowls.