Last Week: 10-5 including correctly forecasting the Vikings first loss and how it would happen. I count ties as a loss because I didn’t win, much like how NFL coaches view them. 68-30 on the year.

Thursday Night

- Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5): This just might be the least appealing primetime offering of the season. Not just football in primetime either, though that new Matt LeBlanc show CBS relentlessly pimps is probably much worse.

As odd as it might seem, this is a fairly critical game in the AFC South. A win levels Tennessee at 4-4 and essentially buries the Jaguars. But a Jaguars win makes the division wide open, given the QB issues in Houston and the issues everywhere but QB in Indianapolis. The home team here has the better QB, better run game and better coach. Yes, I know Mike Mularkey runs the Titans…

Titans 26, Jaguars 20

Sunday Best

- Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-5): The hype meter is off the charts for the first meeting between celebrated rookie QBs Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott. Both have been impressive in leading their respective teams to winning records thus far. What makes the hype crazy is that neither was expected to play this year.

Wentz and the Eagles offense have sputtered in the last three weeks after an explosive start, averaging just 260 yards and 15 first downs in those games. That’s not good enough to match wits with Dallas, who have prime offensive balance with Prescott and fellow rookie RB Ezekiel Elliott. Zeke is running away with the Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, though the Dallas line deserves a lot of credit for keeping running lanes open for the No. 4 overall pick.

Philly found success in Minnesota attacking the Vikings’ lousy OL with tons of pressure. Dallas doesn’t have that vulnerability. I just don’t see the Eagles offensive weapons finding success down the field against a vastly improved Dallas defense either. While Prescott is still overdue for a turnover or two, unless the Cowboys are -2 in turnover margin in this one I don’t see them having much trouble at home.

Cowboys 28, Eagles 14

- Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5): One of the topics I was privileged to talk about on a fun podcast this week was Ty Montgomery’s value to the Packers offense.  The conversation on Off the Record, where I debated NFL.com’s Matt Harmon, focused on fantasy aspects. But my prime selling point on Montgomery was the quite tangible difference in Aaron Rodgers once he figured out he could trust the speedy hybrid RB/WR.

The Packers biggest need all year has been offensive speed, and that’s exactly what Montgomery brings. The fact he can line up all over the formation, from tailback to slot receiver to split end, dynamically changes the Green Bay offense for the better. Rodgers knows; you could see the gleam in his eye late in last Thursday’s win over Chicago.

Between Rodgers’ rediscovered manly vigor and the increased rest from coming off the mini-bye of playing on Thursday, I like the Packers. Atlanta will put up points, and they’re desperate at home coming off two straight losses. But I’m not sold on their defense to stop Montgomery and the Packers.

Packers 33, Falcons 27

- New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+6.5): The Patriots get a chance to avenge the one blemish on their schedule, a game they played without Brady and Gronk. The Bills are a tough team to peg, winning four in a row after a lifeless 0-2 start, then crashing and burning in a bad loss to Miami.

Rex Ryan will have his Bills primed and ready as he always does for the biggest buck in the forest. A laser-sighted Tyrod Taylor and a swarming defense that shoots and makes plays all over the field, as we saw during the win streak, gives Buffalo a fair chance at home. The team we saw surrender over 450 yards to a heretofore roadkill Miami offense, those Bills don’t stand a chance.

Patriots 31, Bills 24

Sunday Rest

- Washington at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5): Fantasy football aficionados have one focus in this matchup, the battle of oft-injured but incredibly productive tight ends. Cincinnati’s Tyler Eifert and Washington’s Jordan Reed are two of the top five most dangerous tight ends in the league, but neither is reliable.

Eifert made his 2016 debut last week, catching just one pass for 9 yards. He’s been the primary missing piece in Cincinnati’s offense this year, but Eifert isn’t quite back to full speed yet. Reed missed Washington’s loss in Detroit last week, and Kirk Cousins felt his absence. He caught 17 passes the prior two weeks and has led Washington in targets in eight of his last 10 games. Reed is expected to play.

Considering those tight ends are a wash, I like Cincinnati’s defensive front to find more success than the visiting counterpart. Skins left tackle Trent Williams left last week’s game and won’t be 100%. He’s arguably the best in the league, but in a hobbled state I don’t expect him to be more than average.

Bengals 28, Washington 23

- New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (+3.5): I know I’ve said it in prior weeks, but this time I really mean it--this is Cleveland’s best chance to crack the win column. With all the positivity in my hometown going on, between the Cavaliers rollicking as the reigning NBA champs and the Indians in the World Series, I think it happens. They’ll need some help from Ryan Fitzpatrick, back in for New York after being (rightfully) benched. If Fitzpatrick plays well and protects the ball, the Jets will prevail. I don’t trust him, not while I’m drunk on the Cleveland Kool-Aid.

Browns 21, Jets 20

- Detroit Lions at Houston Texans (-2.5): Can Matthew Stafford engineer yet another game-winning drive? Detroit is 4-3 and their emerging MVP candidate has led his team to a successful final drive in each win.

The Texans have some key injury losses beyond J.J.Watt. Corner Kevin Johnson recently went on IR, and this week solid right tackle Derek Newton joined him after suffering a devastating injury on Monday night. Newton tore both patellar tendons on the same play.

Newton’s injury impacts the Houston run game, and that’s their primary recipe for victory. Even though the Lions cannot cover the middle of the field whatsoever, the best way to set that up is with play action based off a successful run game. If Lamar Miller can’t find early success running, the Lions won’t respect Brock Osweiler’s oddly awful accuracy in the 5-15 yard range.

Now for the historical implication. Detroit has won three in a row, all against teams entering with winning records (PHI, LAR, WAS). They haven’t won four in a row against teams entering with non-losing records since 1970. Of course they’ve only had five 4-game winning streaks in those ensuing 46 years so the opportunity hasn’t presented itself much.

Are these Lions capable of making history? The fan in me would like to think so, but I’ll need to see it first. I’ll say this though--if the Lions are within 7 points in the final 5 minutes, they win this game.

Texans 27, Lions 17

- Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5): The line here interests me, because it reflects an assertion by the oddsmakers that the Chiefs are really good while also representing a decided downturn on the host Colts. While I’ve been as negative as anyone on Indy, I sense a professional overconfidence in the Chiefs. Even though KC certainly wins the Xs and Os matchups, I’m not convinced they win this game.

Colts 31, Chiefs 28 

- Oakland Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1): Always tough to trust the Raiders on an early East Coast start, and the battle of the pirate monikers is no exception. Tampa has won two in a row, but beating Carolina and San Francisco doesn’t impress me much (cue Shania Twain earworm!).

The Bucs have done so by creating turnovers on defense, seven in those two games. Oakland has done a pretty good job of protecting the pigskin with just five giveaways on the year. It’s a big reason why they’re 5-2. As long as Derek Carr doesn’t give the ball away more than once, I like the visiting Raiders with Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Both have size advantages over the plucky Tampa Bay corners that Carr knows how to exploit.

Raiders 30, Buccaneers 24

- Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints (+3): The one thing New Orleans does really well is throw the ball. Guess what Seattle stops better than just about anyone? Don’t overthink this, not even with the egregious Seattle offensive line.

Seahawks 33, Saints 21

- Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-2.5): I genuinely don’t get the relatively close point spread here. Did the bookies not see what Arizona’s defense did to the wretched Seattle offensive line Sunday night? Carolina’s offensive line played better just before the bye last week but is still vulnerable, and Cam Newton and his receivers aren’t making the plays they did a year ago to make defenses pay for missing on their pressures.

On the other side, Carolina has no pass rush. Carson Palmer has his own struggles with poor offensive line play, but he does have the playmakers to make ineffective over-aggressiveness pay. With David Johnson, he’s also got offensive balance and versatility to keep the Panthers from teeing off in his face. It’s hard to fathom the defending NFC champs at 1-6, but that’s precisely where they are headed.

Cardinals 24, Panthers 20

- San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-5.5): The Broncos lost starting RB C.J. Anderson to a knee injury Monday night, and that’s fairly significant. Even though he has always been unreliably streaky, he will be missed. Devontae Booker is a better receiver and I expect to see a lot of him out in space as the Denver offense looks to move the chains against a San Diego defense that shut them down two short weeks ago.

That 21-13 San Diego win was rookie TE Hunter Henry’s breakout game. The Arkansas product caught 6 passes for 83 yards and a TD. Denver couldn’t cover him. Even though the box score doesn’t show it, they struggled covering Houston’s tight ends and secondary receivers in the shorter range too. The Chargers have the recipe for the upset, and they have the better QB. Philip Rivers should get more recognition as an MVP candidate. A win here in Denver would help, as it would erase the stigma of the 3-4 Chargers being a losing team.

Still, it’s tough to sweep a quality divisional opponent. It’s also very difficult to win in Denver. I forecast a late field goal pushing the Broncos to a hard-fought victory.

Broncos 23, Chargers 21

Monday Night

- Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+6.5): Jay Cutler returns for Chicago, just in time to face the best defense in the league. Given Minnesota’s pass rush and the issues the Bears have at offensive tackle, Cutler’s return from his thumb injury might be short-lived.

Of course the same is true of Sam Bradford on the other side. The Eagles exposed the template to turn Bradford’s MVP carriage back to the squishy pumpkin he’s been most of his career: relentless pressure attacking what might be the worst offensive line in the league. It’s really Minnesota’s only real weakness, but it’s a bigly one as Donald Trump would say. The Bears start undrafted rookies on the corners, so if Bradford has time he will find success. I think he finds just enough here in a game that will be closer than most expect.

Vikings 23, Bears 18