Last week: 11-4, ending a string of 9-win forecasts. 47-31 on the season. 

Thursday Night

- Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+3.5): The big news here is Gary Kubiak will miss this game after being hospitalized following Sunday’s loss to Atlanta. Joe DeCamillis steps up as the interim coach. DeCamillis is the special teams coach and this will be his first NFL game as a head man. I’ve met the veteran journeyman coaching lifer a couple of times and he’s one to root for, an honest but positive coach.

San Diego could very well be looking for its own interim coach if they lose. Mike McCoy’s seat is on fire after a series of bungled close losses. Last week’s botched snap on the short field goal cost them against Oakland. As Donald Duck would say, “it’s always something”. I don’t know what it will be for the Chargers here, but something will prevent them from winning.

Broncos 20, Chargers 17

Sunday Best

- Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-1.5): It took a major gaffe from the Chargers special teams for it to happen, but the Raiders are finding ways to win. This is a franchise that has specialized in figuring out how to lose games. Derek Carr slinging it well and the defense is starting to suck less.

If they want to beat the hated rival Chiefs, Oakland will have to amp up the pass rush. Kansas City gives up a lot of pressures on Alex Smith, and the veteran QB has had issues finding targets when harangued. The Chiefs also struggle to produce big plays in the passing game. Something will give here, as the Raiders tend to have a lot of blown coverages. I’ll side with the Raiders at home and their increased confidence.

Raiders 31, Chiefs 28

- Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5): The Falcons proved they were legit by winning in Denver last week. But the Broncos were playing a rookie backup QB. Seattle is starting Russell Wilson coming off a much-needed bye. Atlanta has hope because they have proven they can put up points even against strong defenses. Their offensive balance and skill position talent is very difficult to contain.

The matchup of Richard Sherman vs. Julio Jones grabs the marquee. Jones is off to a fantastic start for Atlanta, but so is Sherman in Seattle. On the flip side, Atlanta gets too passive on defense when it gets a lead, and that’s a real problem. While the Seahawks offensive line is terrible, Wilson’s creativity and elusiveness mitigate the mess in front of him. Atlanta’s pass rush remains meek, too. I suspect this one will be close and the Falcons have a fair shot here, but Seattle desperately needs this win and has the tools to achieve.

Seahawks 30, Falcons 25

- Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-4): A big litmus test for both teams, as the Cowboys struggle to prove they merit the respect of being a top five team while the Packers desperately try and cling to that status.

The dynamic rookie duo of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott is a major challenge for Green Bay. Prescott holds the NFL record for most passes without an interception to begin a career, and he seldom puts the ball at risk.

I think that ends in Green Bay. All good things must end. It’s simply unrealistic to believe it can persist. The key will be how Prescott responds to the inevitable turnover.

The same is true for Aaron Rodgers on the other side. Green Bay’s offense looks stale and chaotic beyond the scripted first few plays, and Rodgers himself bears no small responsibility for those struggles. There is a real disconnect between what Rodgers needs his receivers to do and what they’re actually capable of, as well.

All that means the Cowboys still have a real shot in Green Bay. I think this game comes down to a late field goal and which coach manages the clock better. The slight edge goes to the home team.

Packers 29, Cowboys 27

- Philadelphia Eagles at Washington (+1.5): One of the key stats here is Washington ranking dead last in opposing rushing yards per attempt. Aside from the yards, this frequently sets up the enemy offense in favorable down and distance to attack the vulnerable back end. It’s why the Skins are also dead last in stopping the opponent on third downs.

The Eagles finally solved their own third down woes last week, but turnovers cost them dearly in Detroit. I’m a believer in Carson Wentz both now and going forward, though I think it’s entirely unrealistic to think he and this offense can sustain the incredible ball security. Those two turnovers--on their last two offensive plays--are going to come more frequently. Washington takes advantage here, perhaps with a defensive TD.

Washington 24, Eagles 21

Sunday Rest

- Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-6.5): I’m not sure who will start at QB for the Browns. I’m not sure it matters. This is likely the last time all season the Titans will be favored to win a game. Relish it, Titans fans…

Titans 20, Browns 12

- Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (-2.5): The Ravens have dropped two in a row as they learn it’s very difficult to sustain offensive success when the best weapon by a massive margin is 37-year-old wideout Steve Smith. That’s no knock on Smith but a broader indictment on how fragile Baltimore’s success is perched upon his cocksure shoulders. I like the Ravens D a lot, but I think the Giants find a way to outscore the visitors.

Giants 27, Ravens 24

- Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (+2.5): No team gives the ball away more than the Panthers, and that given New Orleans a chance. Everything positive we thought about Carolina entering the year has just not come to fruition. Coming off a short week with a foggy Cam Newton maybe playing, maybe not playing? The Panthers descent from Super Bowl rep to bottom 10 overall is one of this season’s more underplayed stories. As long as Newton plays, I think they avoid that fate. But beating the defensively challenged Saints in New Orleans will not be easy, especially not with Carolina’s patchwork secondary.

Saints 36, Panthers 30

- Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (-2.5): Just a total hunch, but I like the desperate Jaguars coming off a bye. Brian Hoyer is due for one of the games where he reminds everyone why he’s been cut by a lot of better teams than this Bears unit.

Jaguars 27, Bears 24

- Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3.5): The Lions who came out energized and sharp last week will crush the Rams who came out dull and underwhelming last week. Here’s the problem for Detroit--that was the first time all year Jim Caldwell outcoached anyone. Even so, the Lions are getting healthier and match up pretty well with the visiting Rams. Detroit hits the crossing patterns well and presents a variety of receivers who can turn a 5-yard pass into a 15-yard gain. Los Angeles relies so much on the front four to get the rush, and they’ll get to Matthew Stafford a few times, no doubt. But their back seven is vulnerable to exactly what Detroit does well.

Lions 24, Rams 20

- Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (+7.5): I was stunned the line for this game was just a touchdown in favor of the Steelers, even on the road. I had it mentally pegged at about 12.5 for the visitors. I see no reason to deviate from that margin, not with Miami cutting almost half its offensive line this week.

Steelers 34, Dolphins 21

- Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (-9.5): Tom Brady is back and the Patriots offense is getting healthier around him, too. Better Cincinnati teams than this have struggled badly against these Patriots. Don’t overthink this.

Patriots 36, Bengals 20

- San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (-7.5): The Colin Kaepernick era resumes for San Francisco. Unfortunately for Kaepernick, Buffalo’s defense is playing quite well. More specifically, the Bills have one of the best slot corners in the game in Nickell Robey-Coleman. San Francisco’s top offensive threat is journeyman slot receiver Jeremy Kerley. Even if Kerley somehow goes off, the depth of San Francisco’s offensive talent is the shallowest in the league.

Bills 23, 49ers 10

- Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3.5): The Texans can go a long way towards sewing up the putrid AFC South with a home win over the rival Colts. For that to happen, QB Brock Osweiler must be more decisive and accurate than he was in last week’s abysmal loss.

The Colts are a good defense to face for a struggling offense. Their linebackers are almost comically inept, and they have serious issues in coverage behind those backers too. I smell a big week for DeAndre Hopkins, and as a surprise sleeper I like Texans TE C.J. Fiedorowicz to post 75 yards and a TD.

Texans 30, Colts 24

Monday Night

- New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5): I didn’t expect either of these teams to be as bad as they are. The difference is, Arizona has the decent excuse of Carson Palmer’s injury. The Jets simply cannot stop anyone, and Ryan Fitzpatrick on his best day isn’t good enough to overcome the poor defense. Now that Eric Decker is lost for the year, it will be even harder for Fitzpatrick to summon the FitzMagic. You’ll be asleep by halftime here…

Cardinals 37, Jets 17

Bonus college games!

Alabama 33, Tennessee 22

Akron 34, Western Michigan 30

Arkansas 40, Ole Miss 34

Stanford 24, Notre Dame 20

Ohio State 34, Wisconsin 10