Last Week: 9-7 straight up, also 9-7 against the spread

Week 2 is always a tough forecast, especially coming off a first week with so many close games. It’s always tough to filter out what are false positives and negatives, one week flukes versus trends that should persist for a team.

Thursday Night

- New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-0.5): The Bills offense did nothing in the opening loss to Baltimore, and now Sammy Watkins is iffy with a bad foot. As rough of a voyage as Revis Island had with A.J. Green in New York’s opening loss to Cincinnati, he should be able to better handle a gimpy Watkins. The Jets D as a whole is a tough unit for Tyrod Taylor to get into a groove against. I don’t trust Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets offense much either, but the visitors have better playmakers and a superior offensive line. Buffalo will miss LT Cordy Glenn in this one.

Jets 16, Bills 14

Sunday Best

- Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5): AFC North rivals bring the nastiness at Heinz Field. The over/under on personal fouls is the same as the line for Pittsburgh; expect a lot of extracurricular activity and a lot of big hits.

While I like Cincinnati’s defense, I like the Pittsburgh offense more. Ben Roethlisberger is in total control of Todd Haley’s aggressively complex attack. Antonio Brown is the preeminent receiver in today’s NFL, and that duo can exploit even the slightest miscommunication between corner and safety. DeAngelo Williams continues to prove he’s a worthy starting back as well, even though he’ll be relegated to reserve duty once LeVeon Bell returns from his high times suspension. Tough to pick against them at home, though Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and a balanced Cincinnati attack will put up a great fight.

Steelers 28, Bengals 24

Sunday Rest

- Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+8.5): There is some school of thought that Josh McCown gives the Browns a better chance to win than the now-injured Robert Griffin. While it’s true McCown is more experienced and distributes the ball more promptly, the veteran doesn’t have RG3’s ability to work outside the original play framework. When the offensive line isn’t so great, and Cleveland’s is not outside of Joe Thomas, that’s important.

Baltimore stifled Tyrod Taylor and the Bills last week, an offense with more proven weapons and a stronger run game. It’s hard to see McCown finding much success. The Ravens own offense reminds me of listening to Nirvana. It’s quiet, hushed, kinda low energy and then it erupts with a deep ball crescendo that overpowers the senses. Cleveland isn’t stopping Joe Flacco’s take on Kurt Cobain.

Ravens 36, Browns 13

- Dallas Cowboys at Washington (-2.5): The loser here is 0-2 including a divisional loss. Dallas has to be ever more desperate as falling here would put them 0-2 in the NFC East as well. It’s tough to make the playoffs when you don’t go at least 3-3 within the division.

One of the big keys here is Dez Bryant against the Washington CB tandem of Bashaud Breeland and Josh Norman. Bryant managed just one catch for 8 yards against the Giants. Breeland and Norman struggled against Pittsburgh’s powerful passing game, notably when Breeland had to match up with Antonio Brown. Bryant is a much different style than Brown, so I’m interested to see if Breeland--a player I like a lot--performs better.

Dallas will need the big outing from Bryant, as well as running back Zeke Elliott. Washington moved the ball well against the Steelers but bogged down in the red zone, scoring just one TD in four red zone drives. Dallas’ defense surrendered three TDs on as many red zone drives in their opener and don’t have the kind of pressure to fluster Kirk Cousins into bad decisions either.

Washington 31, Dallas 27

- Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions (-5.5): Detroit gutted out a road win over a prolific passing Colts team last week thanks to Matthew Stafford’s outstanding and clutch play. The Lions' defense struggled against Andrew Luck, but the Titans' offense is as diametrically opposed to Indianapolis as subtlety and class are to Adam Sandler films.

Tennessee wants to run the ball, run it some more and then top it off with more runs. They’ll find success, but the problem is Detroit plays the run pretty well. You beat the Lions by throwing over the middle and the grey areas between the second and third levels of the defense. That’s perhaps Marcus Mariota’s biggest weakness right now, though Tajae Sharpe could be poised for another big game.

As long as Stafford remains on point, the Lions should cruise. And despite the national media being slow to acknowledge just how good No. 9 has been, it’s legit:

 

Detroit rolls in the home opener.

Lions 32, Titans 21

- Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (-2.5): Both of these teams started slowly last week before asserting their respective dominance in powerhouse second halves. I like how Houston stayed committed to the ground game with Lamar Miller even though the results were lackluster (3.7 yards per carry). That will hold the defense and set up the big strikes to Nuk Hopkins and Will Fuller, who impressed in his debut.

It will be interesting to see Kansas City’s attack. Jamaal Charles is still questionable, though Spencer Ware is a decent fallback. His hands were a pleasant surprise. With Brian Cushing out (again) for Houston the middle of the field should be open for Travis Kelce, as Houston’s safety play against Chicago was downright abysmal. Even so, I think the league’s longest regular-season winning streak comes to an end.

Texans 24, Chiefs 20

- Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5): I like what I saw from Jimmy Garoppolo in New England’s opening road win. To go into Arizona without Gronk and with a banged-up OL and escape with an impressive win in his first career start, that’s real promising.

Miami’s defensive line presents a different kind of challenge, and Jimmy G will need to use that mobility. Ndamukong Suh and friends are the strength of the Dolphins, and they bottled up a strong Seattle offense last week. Miami’s issue here is Ryan Tannehill and their own offense. It’s hard to trust that unit even with Arian Foster looking good in the opener. The Patriots win on defense at home.

Patriots 27, Dolphins 16

- New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (-4.5): I would have liked the Saints a lot more here if they had top CB Delvin Breaux. Unfortunately Breaux is out with a broken leg and that leaves a bad New Orleans defense even more shorthanded against Eli Manning, Odell Beckham and a revitalized Victor Cruz. I’ll take the home team in a shootout.

Giants 36, Saints 33

- San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (-13.5): The Panthers lost their opener, while San Francisco pitched a 28-0 shutout in Week 1. Yet winless Carolina is a two-touchdown favorite and the number has moved upward since opening at 12.5 at some books. That tells you all you need to know about the talent gap between these two teams. Chip Kelly put together a strong game plan in the 49ers opening win and his defense is solid, but Carolina is not Los Angeles. The big number does scare me a bit, but this is an early game on the East Coast for a San Francisco team that doesn’t travel well, with just one win in the Eastern Time Zone since Halloween 2013.

Panthers 24, 49ers 10

- Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (+5.5): The Jeff Fisher hot seat meter is already blistering through the Rams’ coach fire-retardant underwear after a lifeless, pathetic opening loss at the 49ers. The Rams are built to dominate both lines of scrimmage and thrive off the big plays that dominance facilitates. Yet on Monday night their offensive line got beat to hell; star RB Todd Gurley finished with 52 yards after contact and still managed just 47 rushing yards. Defensively, they got torched by Blaine Gabbert throwing to Jeremy Kerley, who was the fifth-best slot receiver in Detroit’s training camp before elevating to the top of San Francisco’s depth chart after a trade. It’s that bad for Fisher and LA. Now they play a team with actual talent on both sides of the ball, though the Russell Wilson ankle issue clouds the confidence just a bit.

Seahawks 20, Rams 6

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5): I love what I saw from Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay offense last week, but the Cardinals are a much different bird than the Falcons. Nothing against the Bucs, but I see the home team righting the ship emphatically, even with their serious depth issues at cornerback. Expect a big fantasy week from David Johnson.

Cardinals 30, Buccaneers 21

- Atlanta Falcons at Oakland Raiders (-4.5): Oakland feasted upon a shaky NFC South defense in the opener, and they draw another in Week 2. Atlanta’s tackling and coverage woes make for easy sledding for Derek Carr and an increasingly confident Oakland offensive attack. The Raiders have major coverage issues of their own, but I’ll take Carr, Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper at home over Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu on the road. I love the “over” here.

Raiders 38, Falcons 31

- Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-5.5): If the Colts were at full strength I’d give them a shot at the upset, but with their myriad injuries it’s hard to see them staying close. Andrew Luck lit up Detroit’s vanilla defense, but dealing with Von Miller and a very active and deep Broncos secondary will slow the Colts down. This should be a good confidence builder for Broncos QB Trevor Siemian, as the Colts don’t get much pressure and are basically down to playing Antonio Cromartie and three of his children at cornerback.

Broncos 30, Colts 19

- Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (-2.5): Upset alert! I try and project what I think the line will be before I see them. I had Jacksonville mentally penciled in here as a 1.5-point favorite even on the road. While San Diego’s solid secondary will give Blake Bortles and the high-flying Jaguars passing game some issues, it’s hard to see the Chargers offense doing much without Keenan Allen against a much-improved tackling defense. Good litmus test for if these Jaguars are really ready to step up as a viable AFC playoff contender.

Jaguars 27, Chargers 17

- Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+2.5): Tough to forecast the Vikings when their quarterback won’t be known until as close to kickoff as possible. Shaun Hill was not good in Tennessee but didn’t have to be as the potent Vikings D scored two TDs on its own. He or Sam Bradford will have to be a lot better to knock off the rival Packers. Hill doesn’t have Bradford’s arm but has some capability of making anticipatory throws. The smart money is on Bradford taking over--he took extra reps on Wednesday--but will it help against a versatile, strong Green Bay secondary?

The Vikings run game will have to do a lot better too; Adrian Peterson netting just 31 yards on 19 carries definitely raises an eyebrow. Perhaps they will use first-round pick Laquon Treadwell at wideout to help, as he was one of the most physical and adept blocking WRs to hit the league in years. He didn’t play in the opener. All hands are needed on deck for what sure looks like a defensive struggle.

Packers 19, Vikings 15

Monday Night

- Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (-2.5): I’ll be in Chicago for this one. Fun fact: Even though I live in Michigan, I live closer to Chicago than Detroit. Chicago radio stations come in clearly across Lake Michigan, but I have to drive at least two hours before any Detroit station other than WJR, The Great Voice of the Great Lakes, tunes in well. Onto the game…

One of the stats I like to look at is yards per play. While it’s not a great predictor and is subject to variables like big plays and field position, it generally shows a basic level of competence on both sides of the ball (it is also largely how RealGM measures team success for our weekly rankings). This matchup features a Philly offense that posted an impressive 5.8 yards per play against a Chicago defense that did well in the opener at allowing just 4.8. The Bears offense slogged to that same 4.8 figure, but the Eagles surrendered 5.5…to Cleveland. Chicago might not be a powerhouse, but Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White and Jeremy Langford are all better than their Cleveland counterparts. I expect to witness a big week from Jay Cutler and company.

Bears 32, Eagles 27

Bonus college picks!

Ohio State 34, Oklahoma 26

Florida State 33, Louisville 30

Notre Dame 25, Michigan State 20

Michigan 31, Colorado 9 and I’ll be at the Big House to scout this one

Alabama 27, Ole Miss 6

Tennessee 39, Ohio 14

Appalachian State 24, Miami FL 21