The third preseason game is typically the dress rehearsal for NFL teams. Most starters play a full half, if not longer, as the coaches roll out the closest facsimile to what we will actually see when the games really count.

Some teams need to be very worried. Others should be encouraged.

$.01--Nothing is worse than a key player suffering a major injury in preseason. Dallas Cowboys fans know this all too well now that Tony Romo is out indefinitely with a broken back.

The star quarterback and keeper of Cowboys fans’ increasingly delusional dreams went down against Seattle on Friday, the victim of an awkward--and clean--hit from Cliff Avril. Romo writhed in pain. So did most of the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area as No. 9 clutched at the back which cost him time in 2013 when he had two separate surgeries.

News came out Saturday afternoon that Romo had indeed broken his back and will be out at least until late October. It might be all season.

For practical purposes, this should end all the Dallas playoff hype. I found much of that hot air regardless, as the defense sorely lacks playmakers and pass rushers (read Nos. 2 and 3 here). Most Cowboys faithful pumped up Romo’s return as that of MacArthur returning to the Phillipines, a conquering hero rising from the ashes to lead his squad to a great triumph.

Rookie Dak Prescott takes over the field general role, at least for now. Prescott has looked great all summer, and I do like his potential. Here’s what I wrote back in April:

 

Jason Garrett and Offensive Coordinator Scott Linehan have smartly set Prescott up to succeed with simple reads and sticking to comfortable plays. The kid gloves come off now, however.

Expect the Cowboys to lean heavily on their great offensive line and the very impressive 1-2 RB punch of Zeke Elliott and Alfred Morris. Elliott was already my pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year, and he could very well lead the league in touches and yards from scrimmage. Morris looks revitalized behind an offensive line perfectly suited for his straightforward running style.

Will that be enough to help Prescott live up to the stratospheric expectations? I suspect it won’t be as bad as the critics expect but also not enough to meet the “Super Bowl or failure” demands the Dallas faithful expect every year.

$.02--The San Diego Chargers played their third preseason game, as they did the first two, without first-round pick Joey Bosa. The No. 3 overall pick last April isn’t hurt. Instead he’s locked in a bitter, acrimonious holdout over contractual trivialities the Chargers hold dear but other teams wantonly disregard.

Bosa refuses to acquiesce to San Diego’s bizarre demands that fly contrary to how every other team does business. Remember, this is the team the Manning family refused to play for back in 2004 and one that had unnecessarily nasty negotiations with Junior Seau, Antonio Gates and others. They want deferrals on bonuses and a hard line on offsets, which are basically guarantees the player gives back money if they have to release him before the end of his contract.

You don’t draft somebody No. 3 overall with the intention of ever needing to release them for poor play. Bosa and his camp are being overly obstinate on their end too, but that’s beside the point.

Here’s what this latest episode has proven about the San Diego Chargers: they’d rather hold the hard line on minor negotiating points instead of fielding a better football team. That’s the message San Diego ownership and management is sending fans, players and the rest of the league.

The Chargers have consciously chosen to waste the third overall pick by focusing on fine print in a contract that only has a slight chance of ever needing to be read. Teams don’t typically get the third overall pick by accident, and Bosa would surely bolster their pass rush and overall defense.

Each day that passes makes it even more likely Bosa doesn’t see the field in 2016. He can reenter the draft next spring, though the Chargers own his rights until the draft commences in April and he cannot be traded. What a waste.

$.03--Colin Kaepernick also made headlines, though not for the reasons the 49ers would prefer. The one-time starting quarterback, the man who led the team to two straight NFC Championship games and a Super Bowl berth, committed what is for many an unforgivable sin.

Before the 49ers game with the Packers, Kaepernick remained seated on the bench as everyone else in the stadium rose for the national anthem. It was a calculated political statement,

 

It’s important to note Kaepernick is biracial by birth and was adopted by a white American couple when he was an infant.

Social media reaction exploded in all sorts of angles. You’re free to make your own judgments based on your personal values here; I won’t impose mine. Instead, let’s shift the focus to his on-field future.

Kaepernick has missed action most of the summer with a shoulder issue. Essentially it’s a “dead arm”. He lost his starting job a year ago to Blaine Gabbert, who outperformed him in trying circumstances with a team going nowhere but down. Gabbert has played well enough to keep that starting status under Chip Kelly.

The 49ers reportedly tried to trade him before and during the NFL Draft. Kaepernick is clearly not happy playing, or rather not playing, in San Francisco any longer. The anthem controversy almost seems like a ploy to get out of town.

He’s in the second year of a six-year/$114M contract with $61M fully guaranteed. Nobody was trading for that even before the national anthem consternation.

I suspect Kaepernick won’t play at all in 2016. That’s probably for the best. Fans around the country are not likely to easily forgive or forget. His game was already regressing and the decided lack of weapons in San Francisco won’t help his development. Put those hands together and Kaepernick is best-served by fading away into as much obscurity as possible.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming offseason. As it’s still the preseason, any speculation on that right now is wildly premature.

$.04--Roster cuts come this week. Currently at 90, teams have to be down to 75 players by Tuesday and the final 53-man roster next Saturday following the final preseason game.

This leads me to my annual plea for teams to try and trade misfit talents instead of just cutting them. Why not try and get back something of value for a player they know will quickly sign with another team?

The Cleveland Browns made such a move this week, dealing 2013 draft disappointment Barkevious Mingo to New England for a fifth-round pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. Mingo was the fifth overall pick but never developed as a pass rushing outside linebacker. The Browns are now on their third coaching staff since taking Mingo and he didn’t fit in the big picture plans.

Good for Cleveland to trade him. Also good for New England to try another salvage mission. They’ve hit on these before and have another from the same draft class in Jonathan Cooper, whom they traded for this offseason.

Some players who are likely to be cut but should be traded include…

  • The loser of the Bryce Petty/Geno Smith battle to be the New York Jets backup QB 
  • Tennessee RB Antonio Andrews, buried on a freakishly deep positional clog
  • Arizona defensive lineman Red Bryant, a declining but serviceable veteran who can help a lot of teams
  • Tampa Bay CB Johnthan Banks, a fairly proven commodity who would be an upgrade as the fourth CB on about 20 other rosters 
  • Cleveland DB Pierre Desir, who hasn’t gotten a chance to prove himself as the team waits for a breakout from Justin Gilbert that will never come
  • Pittsburgh WR Sammie Coates, a youngster bypassed on the depth chart by more promising other youngsters (notably Eli Roberts). A change of scenery might salvage his fledgling career.

Maybe NFL teams will embrace the concept. There have been more in recent times, just not enough. It’s an annual frustration to watch two players cut from their respective teams signing with the other squad and making it. Why not just make the trade? 

$.05--It’s easy to get overly emotional in trying to interpret what the preseason results mean. Chicago fans have every right to worry about their team’s sluggish offense. Browns fans have to be excited with what progress and dynamism they’ve seen from Robert Griffin, Josh Gordon and the offense.

Don’t fall into the trap!

The most common allegory for preseason wins/losses meaning nothing is the 2008 Detroit Lions. They smoked suckers on their way to a perfect 4-0 preseason, giving up just 32 points. Detroit proceeded to lose the opener 34-21 in Atlanta to rookie QB Matt Ryan…and just kept losing. Those Lions remain the only team to lose all 16 games.

Here’s what to pay attention to in preseason:

Injuries. See the Cowboys above but also Baltimore, which lost starting TE Ben Watson on the first play in their Week 3 romp over Detroit with a torn Achilles. The Colts lost their best offensive lineman, Jack Mewhort, in their lifeless loss to Philadelphia. Those losses matter a whole lot more than the scoreboard.

Rookies. You want to see rookies, especially first thru third-round picks, finding their roles with the team and what might be realistic expectations. I’ll use the team I cover, the Detroit Lions, as an example. First-round pick Taylor Decker is the starting left tackle. Physically Decker is handling himself pretty well, but the intricacies of the defense and the rhythmic timing with his linemates remains a work in progress. Third-round pick Graham Glasgow was expected to challenge for the starting job but has done nothing to show he deserves a roster spot other than his draft status and the potential to get better. Adjust your expectations accordingly with the rookies on the team(s) you follow.

Positions of need. Sticking with Detroit, their TE situation is dire. Eric Ebron got hurt in camp and hasn’t played, though he will be ready for Week 1. Brandon Pettigrew is likely to open the year on PUP as he recovers from ACL surgery. That leaves Cole Wick, Orson Charles and Matthew Mulligan as the tight ends. None of that trio should ever see significant, meaningful action in an NFL regular season game. Yet sometimes players also step up and fill apparent voids. Eli Roberts seizing the slot receiver gig in Pittsburgh is a good example, as is Trevor Siemian unexpectedly looking solid at quarterback in Denver.

The outcomes can matter, at least a little. The only 2015 playoff team that had a losing preseason record last year was Pittsburgh. Then again the team with the best point differential in the ’15 preseason was Philadelphia at +56. They finished 7-9 with a -53 differential when the games actually mattered. Those Steelers had the preseason’s worst point differential. Hmmm…