Last season: 10-6, 2nd in AFC East

Key Figures

Scoring offense: 24.2 ppg, 11th in NFL

Scoring defense: 19.6 ppg, 9th in NFL

Turnover differential: +6

The first season of the new regime featuring Head Coach Todd Bowles and GM Mike Maccagnan produced the franchise’s first double-digit win total since 2010. Unfortunately, the season ended with a crushing defeat to former coach Rex Ryan’s Buffalo Bills in a win-or-go-home Week 17 matchup.

A quarterback controversy dominated the offseason news, overshadowing some significant personnel losses including their leading rusher, stalwart left tackle and four defensive starters. New York is still a talented team with realistic playoff expectations but also several legitimate questions.

Five questions

1. What is going on at quarterback?

One of the NFL’s biggest offseason dramas was the national focus on New York’s quarterback situation. Would Ryan Fitzpatrick come back despite acrimonious negotiations? Could Geno Smith rise up and seize the job? Has Bryce Petty developed enough to merit a longer look? Christian Hackenberg, really?

In the end, Fitzpatrick did return. This is the best for the 2016 Jets as the bearded veteran is coming off a strong, productive 2015. After winning the job despite being on his fourth team in as many seasons, Fitzpatrick posted 3905 yards, 31 TDs and led the Jets on three game-winning drives. It was his first season winning more than 6 games despite having started at least 12 games in seven different seasons.

Fitzpatrick’s numbers can be a little deceiving. 31 TDs is certainly impressive, but he also threw 15 INTs. That’s right in line with what he did in Houston in 2014, just over a 2/1 ratio. Prior to that he’d barely thrown more TDs than INTs over his career. The completion percentage actually declined (59.4%) even though he had a deeper cast of receiving weapons in New York. It’s troublesome that his yards per attempt and yards per completion also declined; normally lowering the yards per attempt elevates the completion percentage, but not for Fitzpatrick.

His biggest step forward was in handling pressure. Fitzpatrick did a better job of getting the ball out quickly but also of scooting around in the pocket. Having trust in the likes of Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker helped No. 14 throw with more confidence.

If he’s the same basic QB he was last year, Fitzpatrick is the right choice for New York. But if he reminds everyone why he’s playing on his sixth team in the last nine years, the offseason contractual game of chicken will prove a high-profile trainwreck.

Smith probably deserves another shot even though he made far too many awful decisions in his first two seasons, where he was the primary starter. He holds the ball far too long but will also force throws, not seeing a closing safety or dropping linebacker. Geno played well in his one shot last year, the loss at Oakland. And he was set to start before the broken jaw incident last summer. Yet the coaches and management didn’t feel confident enough to back him, nor did his teammates. That’s a bad sign.

Petty was a fourth-round pick in 2015 but struggled with the NFL style of offense and speed of the game by all accounts. Coming from Baylor that was to be expected, but the fact he’s still having the same issues a year later is troubling. Then there’s Hackenberg, this year’s second round pick. He’s yet to show enough to get reps in camp or preseason. My thoughts on Hack are well-documented; suffice to say I’m about as surprised by his struggles as I am water being wet. One of these two will make the team and enter next offseason as the anointed QB of the future. Let that sink in for a minute and then reconsider the Fitzpatrick hate. Fitz might not be great but he’s certainly the lesser of many evils here.

2. Who fills the holes on the lines?

New York lost two bedrock talents in left tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson and nose tackle Damon Harrison. Neither hole will be easy to fill.

Ferguson, one of the better pass protectors for years, retired unexpectedly after starting every game over the last 10 seasons. He struggled some in 2015 and has never been a people mover in the run game, but D’Brick was rock solid at the critical position.

Maccagnan took an expensive flyer on Ryan Clady, trading a fifth-round pick to Denver for the former Pro Bowler and singing him to a new deal. Clady missed all of 2015 with a torn ACL. He missed almost all of 2013 with Lisfranc (foot) surgery. The “healthy” season in between saw Clady’s effectiveness decline precipitously, notably in the run game. His Pro Bowl nod after the 2014 campaign is a great indictment on why folks need to take “Pro Bowler” with a massive grain of salt.

He was arguably the best available option, but banking on the 30-year-old coming off two major injuries is a serious gamble. The problem is exacerbated by the preexisting hole at right tackle. Breno Giacomini was one of the league’s worst, and offseason reports indicated the team was planning on releasing the journeyman. But the only other options at this point are Colts castoff Ben Ijalana or heavy-legged Brent Qvale. With Brian Winters a below-average starter at right guard already and stalwart veteran center Nick Mangold starting to slide just a little, the offensive line looks to be a major issue. At least Mangold and left guard James Carpenter are a very good run-blocking tandem. Backup guard Dakota Dozier fits that bill, too.

Even with the significant offensive line issues, the Jets might actually miss Harrison even more. He’s the perfect 3-4 nose tackle. Big Snacks physically does not go backwards, not even with two blockers efforting against him. He didn’t show up in on the stat sheet much, but Harrison created scores of opportunities for the very talented guys around him.

Facilitators up front never get their due credit. I still love the defensive ends here in New York with the threesome of Leonard Williams, Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson. All three are first-round picks and dynamic forces at the 5-technique. Many expected Wilkerson to depart but with him back in the hangar the Jets have the best 1-2-3 punch of any 3-4 team by a wide margin.

They’ll still be good, but the dropoff from Harrison to 30-year-old plugger Steve McClendon will impact those ends. It also impact the inside linebackers, who have been blessed to avoid getting blockers quickly in their laps behind Harrison. There is zero depth behind the three ends and McClendon up front, too. 

3. What do the grizzled veterans have left?

Most of the Jets' most talented players are on the wrong side of 30. While none are over the hill, it’s a roll of the dice that all these important figures are much closer to the end than the beginning.

Darrelle Revis tops the list. Now 31, the star cornerback is coming off a season that didn’t come close to expectations. A concussion hurt, but Revis Island looked sluggish and tight even before that. The Jets defense is heavily reliant on him being the perennial All Pro and one of the few true lockdown cover men in the game. Last year he was an average starting corner. If he’s merely that once again, there are significant ripple effects across the defense.

One of the biggest advantages of having prime Revis Island is the ability for safeties to ignore his receiver. That allows double coverage on the other outside receiver, or a free blitzer, or more creative cover mixes to confuse the offense. If that cannot happen, it removes a lot of options for Todd Bowles.

Brandon Marshall showed no signs of age in his first year in New York. His tenth NFL season was arguably his best: 109 receptions, 1502 yards, 14 TDs, 63% catch rate. He succeeds with size, power and excellent body positioning, traits that don’t go away with age. No receiver has more 100-catch seasons than Marshall’s six, and he should build on that impressive feat in 2016. He’s still an elite talent at 32.

Nick Mangold missed some time with neck and hand injuries last year. He also looked a half-step slower when having to venture out of his immediate phone booth at center. Mangold might still be the best bulldozer in the run game and the 32-year-old Ohio State product knows all the tricks--both for his own use and what defenders will try against him. That kind of savvy is invaluable, especially on a line where both tackles are major questions. He remains one of the better centers in the league. The Jets desperately need him to play every snap, and that’s where the advancing age and decade of wear and tear comes into play. I’d like to see Bowles give Mangold some rest in blowout wins or losses.

David Harris continues on as one of the starting inside backers. Running mates have come and gone, most recently Demario Davis, but Harris enters his tenth season in New York still unchallenged. The 32-year-old wears the green dot as the defensive signal-caller. Inside the tackle box from the line of scrimmage to about 5 yards past, Harris remains one of the better 3-4 ILBs in the league. Unfortunately he’s downright awful outside that limited bubble, especially in coverage and on quick-hit pass plays where his sclerotic hips are easily exposed.

Matt Forte is the wild card. He couldn’t be much more divergent from the man he’s replacing at running back. Chris Ivory led the AFC in rushing last year with a hard-charging, downhill, physical style. Forte comes from Chicago as a cutback slasher, using nifty footwork and quick cuts to set up his long stride. He’s a much better receiver than Ivory and that is an added dimension that should benefit the 33-year-old Fitzpatrick quite a bit.

If the Jets are asking Forte to be Ivory, it will fail miserably. He doesn’t have the power or low running style. If they’re asking him to share the running burden with Bilal Powell but also snag around 50 passes the way Forte was used in Chicago last year, the offense might actually be more dangerous and diverse. Powell is game for splitting the carries, though neither fits Ivory’s style of interior grinder.

4. Where is the depth?

From the offensive line to wide receiver to linebacker, New York has a stark lack of quality and/or proven depth across most positional groups. Other than at defensive end, corner and perhaps wide receiver, these Jets are in serious trouble if even the lesser starters on the roster go down.

Take linebacker. Adding Darron Lee in the first round gives the Jets a much-needed versatile weapon. He’ll be starting sooner than later, likely inside but more so in nickel and dime packages right away. Lee is an upgrade over Demario Davis and a better all-around player than Erin Henderson, who was great at attacking the inside run in his first Jets season. Yet Harris is aging and limited and Henderson missed an entire year after a series of arrests. He’s one strike away from being suspended for a full season.

The depth behind that troika is Bruce Carter and Julian Stanford. Carter parlayed one good year (out of four) in Dallas into a big free-agent deal that Tampa Bay regretted almost immediately. He can cover tight ends well but might be the softest LB in the league in run support. Stanford is a special teams guy, nothing more.

Outside backer is even thinner. Third-round pick Jordan Jenkins will start immediately out of necessity. I like Jenkins as an athletic all-around backer who can reliably bag 5-7 sacks and play well against the run and quick passing game. And Lorenzo Mauldin on the other side flashed pass rush ability in limited situational reps in his rookie season last year. They’re going to be a solid duo in time, but the timer is rapidly accelerated on them.

That’s because their cohorts at the critical OLB spot are Trevor Reilly, Mike Catapano and Freddie Bishop. Catapano is moving from end and coming off a foot injury. He has two sacks in three injury-plagued years. Reilly is as stiff as they come as a rusher and has one sack in two years in New York. Both are former seventh-round picks. Bishop is a CFL refugee with a blazing first step and could be a surprise, though it’s worth noting he couldn’t even last on Detroit’s practice squad coming out of Western Michigan.

Cornerback doesn’t have the sizzle factor with Antonio Cromartie gone, but the overall group is deeper. Marcus Williams should be an upgrade over Cromartie outside, certainly in run support and short-yardage coverage. He has his warts but is an emerging talent and his six INTs were not a fluke; Williams has ball skills extraordinaire. That would push newcomer Buster Skrine to the slot where he belongs. Skrine gave up too many big plays in Cleveland but he’s experienced and fast. If Dexter McDougle can stay on the field and fourth-round rookie Juston Burris plays to expectations, New York at least has a stable of decent potential. I suppose there’s a chance Dee Milliner finally “gets it” as well.

Safety is a different story. Marcus Gilchrist remains one of the league’s more underrated values, a solid coverage safety who tackles well. He and Calvin Pryor are a strong starting tandem, and Pryor could break out in his third season while playing solely in the strong safety role. Both have a nose for the ball and high football IQs. They’re in fine hands with the starters. But…

The depth at safety is sorely lacking. Rontez Miles just has not developed, though a leg injury is at least partially responsible. He’s having a promising preseason and that provides hope, but the thumping Miles needs to prove he can anticipate and make the right immediate reaction to what is coming at him. The rest of the safety depth is guys Seattle didn’t want, not even on their practice squad.

Tight end is even worse. Kellen Davis is the top option, a streaky blocking specialist who is optimally a No. 3. The Lions and Bears discard caught 3 passes for 18 yards last year. It would be great if 2014 second-rounder Jace Amaro stepped up, but that looks unlikely. He’s struggled with both injuries and some apparently inherent hand-eye coordination issues. Amaro blocks on Twitter much better than on the gridiron and is looking more like a big draft miss on my part. Zach Sudfeld is tall and a fan favorite but coming off a torn ACL. Slow tight ends who don’t block well typically find little success.

Tie this lack of depth with the heavy reliance on aged veterans. It’s a dangerous proposition, albeit one largely out of GM Maccagnan’s control. Years of missed draft picks forced this situation, and the Jets are far from unique here.

5. What to expect from Todd Bowles in Year Two?

Bowles had a tough act to follow in New York. Rex Ryan cast a considerable shadow over the Jets, and last year Bowles was a rookie coach trying to assert his own vision on a team more tailored to Ryan’s very specific style.

I like a lot of what I saw from Bowles. He allowed Offensive Coordinator Chan Gailey a lot of creative freedom, and Gailey delivered. Only two Jets teams have ever scored more points, and the offense posted the AFC’s leading rusher in Ivory and a pair of receivers in Marshall and Decker who combined for almost 200 catches, 2500+ yards and 26 touchdowns.

The head coach didn’t play favorites, a stark contrast from the Rex Years. He didn’t shy away from disciplining Wilkerson for a minor infraction. He benched guys who weren’t playing to expectation, even cutting stiff Quinton Coples. He fired popular special teams coach Bobby April when his units kept making preventable mistakes.

Now the team is even more in Bowles’ image. He’s always been known as a defensive mind who sweats the minor details. His 2015 Jets were more prepared and more diverse than Ryan’s teams. Much of the player turnover has brought in more versatile, adaptable players.

Bowles still has some room for growth. His clock management and situational calls featured several rookie mistakes. I like that his staff returns almost intact, notably the experienced Gailey and well-respected DL Coach Pepper Johnson. This is a quiet, pensive regime but also one that does not lack fire or discipline. I think it will go over even better in his second season.

The insatiable New York media tends to prefer stronger, more controversial personalities like Rex or Bill Parcells or Jeff Van Gundy, and that could be a problem for Bowles if this teams starts slowly. Few fan bases are more reactive to the local media, and that creates very real pressure even if the coaches and players try to downplay it.

Forecast

Getting back to 10 wins with this roster would be a crowning achievement for Bowles as a coach. It’s not out of the realm of possibility, however; as long as the offense is balanced and efficient, this is a dangerous opponent. The defense is still loaded with potential top-line talent, though there are legit questions about depth and age.

The schedule is not in their favor. Five of the first six games are against 2015 playoff teams, and the one respite is a trip to Buffalo on a short week. The AFC North and NFC West as divisional opponents is a tough slog.

Health will play a big role, as it does with every team. So will sack and turnover differential, areas where the Jets were top-10 in 2015. If they’re going to challenge in the middle-heavy AFC, the Jets will need a repeat in those metrics. Given the personnel losses and questions on the replacements, that’s a tall order. New York finishes 2016 at 8-8, a team close enough to tantalize as a serious threat but far enough away to need another offseason to get there. 

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