Last Year: 8-8, 3rd in AFC East

Key Figures

Scoring offense: 23.7 ppg, 12th in NFL

Scoring defense: 22.4 ppg, 15th in NFL

Turnover margin: +6 

Five Questions

1. Is Tyrod Taylor for real?

The question has to be asked after Taylor burst onto the scene in his first year as a starting quarterback. Taylor had just 35 pass attempts in his four years with the Ravens as Joe Flacco’s backup as a sixth-round pick.

All he did was unexpectedly seize the starting job over Matt Cassel and E.J. Manuel, and prove to be one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league. Taylor completed almost 64% of his passes while demonstrating deft touch and a keen sense of timing. He was also a weapon with his legs, posting 568 yards on the ground while breaking off numerous big plays.

The arm strength was never a question, nor was the athleticism. It was Taylor’s ability to patiently and smartly operate Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman’s scheme that stood out as the surprise. Roman smartly tailored the offense to fit what Taylor does well.

Buffalo rewarded him with a big new contract extension. In order to earn the incentive-laden cash, he’ll need to keep protecting the ball and making the quick decisions that stood out last year. He’ll also need to stay on the field, as he did miss two games. That’s always a concern with a “running” quarterback, even one as solidly built as the 6’0, 225-pound Virginia Tech product. 

The Bills can afford little regression in his second year at the helm. Defenses now have a year of film on not just Taylor, but also Roman’s offense around him. He’ll benefit from getting his interior OL returning intact, notably center Eric Wood and guard Richie Incognito, who resurrected his name with a Pro Bowl campaign. John Miller has strong potential at the other guard spot, though he struggled as a rookie.

Taylor does still have upside. Better synergy with his receivers and further mastery of Roman’s offense might help him blossom into a darkhorse MVP candidate.

2. Where did this roster improve in the offseason?

Buffalo didn’t do a lot of above-the-fold personnel work this offseason. The most notable transaction was Mario Williams’ unceremonious release after a season of misfit discontent with Ryan’s defense. Williams struggled to adapt to a 3-4 and didn’t shy away from voicing his displeasure. He had to go.

Buffalo tried to draft his replacement in Shaq Lawson, but he’s out for at least the first half of the year (more on that below). Jerry Hughes is fine as the primary rush LB, but the Bills don’t have anyone in the same area code of Williams on the other side and that takes into account his poor 2015 campaign. Then again, Hughes saw his sack total cut in half in year one of Ryan’s defense. If he’s not dynamic enough in his own right to command double teams or push double-digit sacks, this defense is in serious trouble. Desperation, thy name is Falcons castoff Kroy Biermann.

They also lost starting ILB Nigel Bradham. He’s a below-average starter and shouldn’t be missed. The problem is, his designated replacement is out for the year as second-round pick Reggie Ragland has a torn ACL. Bradham was the better of the inside LBs in coverage, and now Preston Brown must be the alpha dog. That’s not something which suits his steady but unspectacular play.

They’ll try to fill the hole with some combination of Zach Brown and Brandon Spikes. Brown can cover but is a massive liability in the run game and cannot blitz. Spikes is great snuffing out the run in the box but has extraordinarily limited range. Both played their way out of starting gigs on their last teams. Lorenzo Alexander brings energy at depth but he’s a special teams specialist.

In the secondary, Ron Brooks and Leodis McKelvin are both gone. Brooks was a valuable top reserve, while McKelvin was an erstwhile starter. They’re both going to start for former Bills Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz in Philadelphia. McKelvin was overrated and coming off a down year, but the team did little to replace him. Sixth-round pick Kevon Seymour is the most notable addition, and he does offer potential if he’s recovered from the injuries that dogged his USC career. The leading competitor at fourth CB is newcomer Corey White, now on his fourth team in the last 10 months. That’s not a good thing.

The inflow of players here doesn’t come close to equaling the outflow, even if the departed didn’t necessarily fit well any longer in Buffalo. The depth chart is stocked with a lot more unknowns and lower overall talent level than it was on both sides of the ball. Relying on internal development with guys like Cyrus Kouandjio and Cyril Richardson on the OL or Chris Gragg and Greg Salas as receiving options is a major roll of the dice.

3. Who scores touchdowns?

Scoring wasn’t really a problem last season, as the Bills finished 12th in points per game in Greg Roman’s first year as offensive coordinator. This question is more about sorting out the pecking orders.

Buffalo has a barrage of interesting talent at both receiver and running back. Sammy Watkins proved he’s worthy of being a No. 1 receiver down the stretch last year after struggling early. He demanded the ball more and responded with seven 80-yard outings in nine games following his return from an injury. Eight of his nine TDs also came in that stretch. Watkins, the No. 4 overall pick in 2014, has field-stretching speed and sticky hands, plus relentless confidence in his talents. He’s struggled in the red zone and is seemingly always battling one malady or another (see below), however.

Robert Woods hasn’t quite emerged as a reliable No. 2 receiver. He caught 47 passes last year, and his three-year career average is right around 51 catches and 600 yards. Woods is tough, playing through a torn groin last year that limited his burst. If he’s healthy, he could top 60 catches and 750 yards, with 5-6 TDs. His breaks out of cuts and release off the line are both better than Watkins.

Dezmin Lewis has the inside track to be the third wideout as the big outside threat. He didn’t get a sniff as a rookie, but he’s an athletic 6’4” and had good tape at Central Arkansas. Most reports have him not exactly seizing the opportunity in camp, unfortunately. If Lewis isn’t the third receiver, it will be tiny sprinter Marquise Goodwin. The 5’9” Goodwin is a straight-line blazer but has managed just 20 catches in three years. The 2013 third-rounder never caught more than 33 in his Texas days either. He’s a niche receiver who shouldn’t be nearly so high on any depth chart.

Behind them are practice squad journeymen like Greg Salas and Jarrett Boykin. Watkins and Woods can be very good as a 1-2, but if either misses time or doesn’t perform to optimal level this offense is in serious peril.

At running back, McCoy made the Pro Bowl only because it was a terrible year for AFC running backs. Shady was decent, averaging 4.4 yards per carry and also showing reliable hands and blocking in the passing game. But the big plays that made him a star in Philly were largely missing, as just 6 of his 203 carries topped 20 yards. Compare that to Taylor’s 14 in 10 fewer attempts. Karlos Williams had 8 in just 93 carries, most of which came in just two games. McCoy scored on the ground just 3 times (2 receiving TDs) and has strangely topped 10 TDs just once in his seven-year career.

Williams is one of a few intriguing backups. Mike Gillislee hits the hole hard and fast, proving he belongs once he got a chance. He had just 6 carries in two prior seasons in Miami before getting some nods last year. Nobody steals from division rivals better than Rex Ryan. He poached Charles Clay, the team’s top receiving tight end, from the Dolphins as well. You can pencil in Clay for 55 catches and 600 yards, his three-year average. It would be nice if he topped last year’s 3 TDs.

Buffalo was heavily dependent on the big play, but that’s tough to replicate. Last year they led the league in explosive plays, which is runs of 10+ yards and passes of 25+ yards. They hit 104. The year prior? 60 in 2014, which was 30th overall. 

4. Are the Ryan brothers a good idea?

Rex Ryan is a polarizing figure as head coach. His braggadocio act is simultaneously refreshing and troublesome. The players (mostly) love his candid nature, honest assessments and enthusiastic swagger. Rex is creative on both sides of the ball and empowers his players to take chances. Sometimes it works, sometimes it flops.

His pressure 3-4 defensive scheme did not work well last year, in part because the team was tailored to prior Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz and his Wide 9, base nickel 4-3. Going from playing two LBs to four proved problematic, as did the change in coverage scheme to more man coverage and divided safety roles.

Rex doubled down on his defense by hiring his twin brother Rob to run it. Where Rex is creative and stresses the opposing offense, Rob is reckless and often creates easy opportunities for disciplined enemies. Statistically, he’s one of the worst defensive coordinators in NFL history. He has coordinated exactly one top-10 defense in yards allowed and points allowed in 12 seasons of continuous employment, the 2013 Saints. He’s had four where his unit finished in the bottom-5 in both, including each of the last two seasons.

The interpersonal dynamic between the twins will be interesting. Both are stubborn and neither takes well to justified criticism. Will Rex be able to override Rob if he doesn’t like the defensive call? If the blown coverage issues endemic to Rob’s defenses persist, can Rex make necessary changes? Will they coexist? I know that sounds blasphemous from the outside, but it’s difficult to work with family in a stressful situation. Given the well-documented travails and volatility of the Ryan family, it’s not a stretch to worry how this plays out.

It’s also possible to see how it can work. The secondary here in Buffalo has a chance to be very good. Ronald Darby was above average as a cover corner in his rookie campaign and his arrow is pointing up. Stephon Gilmore is also an above-average corner on the other side and more of a playmaker. Veteran Corey Graham looked natural at safety after switching from corner, and he played nicely off the young outside guys while consistently choosing the best angles of attack. I love the addition of Ed Reed to the coaching staff, too.

The defensive front is pretty strong, too. Kyle Williams continues to be one of the better all-around ends, though he’s coming off injury. Marcell Dareus lost his gaudy sack total from 2014 but arguably played smarter. Corbin Bryant is good at what he does at the other end spot. There is no depth now that IK Enemkpali is lost for the year and Stefan Charles is in Detroit, however. Which leads me to the final question…

5. When will the injury bug stop biting?

Every year it seems there is one NFL team bitten inordinately hard by a virulent injury bug. If the summer is any indication, Buffalo is that team in 2016.

Last year was bad enough. McCoy missed four games, while Watkins missed three. So did Charles Clay. Percy Harvin lasted just five games. And that’s just the offense.

The list of walking wounded already should scare Bills fans.

• First round pick Shaq Lawson will miss at least the first half of the season with a shoulder injury, a preexisting condition that made other teams drop the Clemson pass rusher off their draft boards.
• Second-round pick Reggie Ragland is out for the year with a torn ACL. He would have started Week 1 at inside backer and is perfect for a Ryan defense. Ragland reminds me a lot of Pepper Johnson. Google him, kids…
• Watkins was just activated from PUP as he heals from a foot injury. He should be fine by Week 1, thankfully.
• McCoy has battled a leg injury all offseason. Some reports indicate it’s a hamstring, others and ankle. Like Watkins, he should be good to go but closely monitored.
• Left tackle Cordy Glenn, one of the better all-around at his position, is out for (at least) the preseason with a high ankle sprain.
• Last season’s starter at right tackle, Seantrel Henderson, is out indefinitely with Crohn’s disease. His successor is Jordan Mills, a guy not good enough to be the fifth offensive tackle on terrible lines in Chicago and Detroit in the last couple of seasons.
• Reserve defensive end IK Enemkpali is out for the year with a torn ACL
• Manny Lawson was cleared for practice from a pec injury about an hour before completion of this piece on Aug. 16th. He faces possible suspension Week 1 for a domestic violence incident, though that is unknown.
• Safety Aaron Williams has suffered significant neck injuries each of the last two seasons and has already been sidelined in camp with a concussion.

Then there are the suspensions. Backup RB Karlos Williams, who was more effective than McCoy at times in his rookie season, is out for the first four weeks. He is ostensibly replaced on the roster by Reggie Bush, who has missed 16 games over the last two years and frequently misses drives here and there on an almost weekly basis.

About 12 hours before this got sent to my editor, Marcell Dareus was suspended for the first four games for violating the NFL’s drug policy. I’m bullish on third-round rookie Adolphus Washington, but those are big shoes to fill right off the bat.

That’s a lot of prominent players with injury and/or off-field questions entering the season. These things have a way of snowballing, particularly for a team with iffy depth on both lines and offensive skill positions. They are thin enough at pass rusher that undrafted rookie Bryson Albright, a guy who struggled to generate consistent pressure in the MAC at Miami OH, is getting first-team reps in camp.

Given the aforementioned depth issues, any more injuries push this team into critical condition.

Forecast

If this team were fully intact, I would like Buffalo to at least match last year’s 8-8. Tyrod Taylor should build upon his outstanding debut season, and his starting weapons are very impressive.

The problem is, they’ve already lost their top two draft picks that they were desperately counting upon to be major defensive contributors. The depth is weaker all over the roster. Pair that with high expectations and a coach many believe is on the hot seat in Rex Ryan, and there is a chance this disintegrates quickly.

Buffalo does get a favorable early schedule, including a Tom Brady-less New England in Week 4 followed by winnable games at Los Angeles and home for San Francisco. I can see them surging out to 4-2 or even 5-1 if Taylor and the offense are cruising and Rob Ryan’s defense isn’t awful.

It’s at that point where I see the decline. A three-game stretch where a visit from New England is sandwiched between trips to Miami and Seattle is ominous. Improved Oakland and Jacksonville follow, as well as playoff returnees Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. That’s tough with a thin roster, an emotional roller coaster of a coach and visions of playoff grandeur.

I think Buffalo peaked last year, unfortunately. Unless Taylor is a worthy MVP finalist and Rob Ryan miraculously cobbles together a top-10 defense, the Bills are not matching last season’s eight wins. Rex Ryan is a good enough coach to keep them competitive and motivated, but Buffalo finishes 5-11.

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