Last year: 4-12, last in NFC East

Key Figures

Scoring offense: 17.2 ppg, 31st in NFL

Scoring defense: 23.4 ppg, 16th

Turnover margin: -22, last in NFL

If it could go wrong, it probably did for the 2015 Cowboys. Another broken collarbone for Tony Romo is perfectly emblematic for a lost season for Dallas. The lack of depth all over and inability to make big plays on both sides of the ball sent the Cowboys to the basement of the league’s weakest division.

Hope abounds with Romo and Dez Bryant returning to the field, joined by venerable tight end Jason Witten and early Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Ezekiel Elliott at running back. This offense has scary-good potential. Unfortunately the defense has been noteworthy for all the wrong reasons, with several key components suspended early. Can Jason Garrett coach this intriguing team back to playoff contention and prove 2015 was an injury-ravaged aberration? The pressure is on.

Five questions

1. What does the rookie class bring?

The headliner is Ezekiel Elliott, the No. 4 overall pick, but the running back isn’t the only important rookie for the Cowboys.

Elliott has every chance to be one of the best offensive weapons in the league very early in his career. He is the most talented runner to enter the league since Adrian Peterson, a more complete and explosive player than Todd Gurley a year ago. His receiving skills and pass protection will allow him to stay on the field in all situations and not tip off the defense to his role on any given play.

One area where he will really help is third down. Dallas finished 26th last year in third down conversion percentage, often failing in the 3-6 yard distance. Elliott was phenomenal on third downs at Ohio State with his ability to quickly press the hole and make the first tackler miss, as well as his strong forward lean and leg churn. He sets up and sells play action nicely, too.

Elliott is battling a hamstring injury during camp, and that does temper expectations. I still think he finishes in the top 10 in yards from scrimmage and threatens double-digit touchdowns, but keep an eye on his status as the preseason slogs on. The Cowboys desperately need him to be ready to go Week 1.

Second-round pick Jaylon Smith would have been fantastic if he were healthy, but the devastating knee injury he suffered in Notre Dame’s bowl game will almost certainly keep him off the field in 2016. There is no guarantee he will ever play again. Root for the comeback in 2017.

It’s the next few picks where the Cowboys sorely need immediate impact, notably with Maliek Collins and Charles Tapper. Unfortunately, both of them are currently on the shelf. You will notice this is a recurring theme throughout this preview. Collins and Tapper are both pass rushers on the defensive front, Collins at tackle and Tapper at end--though both have some positional flexibility. Collins was an all-or-nothing player at Nebraska, but his “all” will cause problems for NFL blockers. Tapper brings power and physicality to the base end position in Rod Marinelli’s 4-3. Both need a lot of technical refinement and consistency, but there is no better DL teacher in the league than Marinelli. Of course, they can’t help the club from the tub.

A pair of picks in the secondary in the fifth and sixth rounds offer potential down the line. Anthony Brown is making a strong case to be the No. 4 cornerback with his excellent closing burst and nose for the ball. He was often asked to do too much at Purdue and I like his chances to be a hidden gem. Kavon Frazier should be the fourth safety straight out of Central Michigan as well as a special teams contributor. For a defense that plays three safeties a lot, the big-hitting Frazier could play a larger role than expected. He has potential to move to the hybrid LB/S role, though I’ve said that about Barry Church (a great college LB) for years and it just doesn’t happen in Dallas.

Sixth-round RB Darius Jackson plays the same power-back role as newcomer Alfred Morris, so he’s likely not going to contribute in 2016. However, he’s got a lot of ability. I wrote a scouting report on Jackson back in the spring and he was one of my favorite sleepers coming out of Eastern Michigan.

Of course, the Cowboys hope fourth-round pick Dak Prescott doesn’t have to play as a rookie. He’s Tony Romo’s primary backup, as we will discuss a little later. 

2. Who rushes the passer?

The Cowboys are coming off a season where they finished 25th in total sacks and 21st in sack percentage, and that was with Greg Hardy. He’s gone, as is fellow part-time starting end Jeremy Mincey. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg which threatens to sink the Dallas defense.

The two projected starting ends, Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory, are both suspended for the first four games. Lawrence played quite well down the stretch in 2015 and is being counted upon to notch double-digit sacks. He’s got that kind of potential with his closing burst and powerful hands to go with his upfield burst. Gregory flopped miserably as a rookie (no sacks) and faced many character questions coming out of Nebraska. It’s fair to question if he ever does anything for Dallas, but he’ll no doubt get a chance just out of sheer desperate necessity. Don’t count on Gregory.

No other edge rusher currently on the roster has more than six career sacks. Those belong to Jack Crawford, a try-hard Englishman who brings effort and some pop but not a lot of technical prowess. He’s a solid backup. Benson Mayowe bagged one for the Raiders in each of the last two years before defecting to Dallas as a restricted free agent. He’s got some upside but he’s currently missing time after having a knee scope in June.

Inside, a full healthy season from Tyrone Crawford would help. He’s got bull strength, natural leverage and decent quickness as a rushing tackle. He played all 16 games and registered five sacks, but he was clearly slowed late by a shoulder issue. Reports are he’s having a strong camp. Newcomer Cedric Thornton is a wash in replacing Nick Hayden on the nose. He might stumble into a sack or two, and he doesn’t have the veteran Hayden’s vision for the ball in the run.

The two injured rookie linemen could help, but their maladies opens the door for guys like undrafted rookie Shaneil Jenkins or big Lawrence Okoye to show something in preseason. I really like Jenkins, who dominated at D-II national champ Shepherd and has a lot of physical similarity to Lions star Ezekiel Ansah. But that’s asking a whole lot of guys who have never gone up against even mid-level D-I collegians, let alone Jason Peters or Trent Williams.

Marinelli’s defenses typically don’t blitz much, and as a result the linebackers on the roster aren’t very skilled at it. Sean Lee did rack up 2.5 sacks last year from the weak side as he finally stayed healthy, but he’s not a natural pass rusher. Rolando McClain bagged two, but he’s also going to be in absentia with a 10-game suspension for his latest brush with the NFL rule book.

3. Can the defense create takeaways?

Dallas finished with the worst turnover ratio in the league last year at a pathetic -22. While the offense gave up the ball far too often--their 33 giveaways tied Tennessee for the league lead--the defense produced just 11 takeaways.

The easiest way to create more takeaways is the pass rush, but as noted above that looks to be problematic. The next focus is creating fumbles, but that’s not something the Cowboys are well-equipped to do either. Last year they were credited with just six forced fumbles, recovering three; no other team forced fewer than 10.

Linebackers and safeties are critical here, but the Cowboys just don’t have playmakers at those spots. Sean Lee can pull down the INT in zone coverage but has just two forced fumbles in 60 NFL games. Safety Barry Church has forced 7 in 78 career games while also producing just three career INTs. Linebacker Justin Durant, who returns from one disappointing season in Atlanta, has created 8 turnovers in 108 career games with four teams. Kyle Wilber, who will split that outside LB role with Durant, has forced exactly one fumble and zero INTs in four seasons. Anthony Hitchens has one INT and one forced fumble in two full seasons. Safety JJ Wilcox, who won’t start anymore but still figures to play a lot as the Cowboys deploy the three safety look, picked off three passes in one four-game stretch early in his career. He has exactly one takeaway in 41 other games.

Byron Jones offers some hope here. The 2015 first-rounder played well in a utility role that saw him line up all over the formation. Now he’s a full-time safety, which should be his optimal position. His length and closing speed are both high-level, though he failed to generate a single takeaway as a rookie. Jeff Heath, a special teams specialist, was the most productive takeaway artist in the back seven. The corners here failed to record a single interception, an almost unreal lack of production. Brandon Carr hasn’t created a turnover in two years, though he does have two fumble recoveries in that time. Mo Claiborne, the other starting corner, has one created takeaway in his last 30 games.

The simple law of averages dictates they will stumble into more takeaways. Getting scrappy Orlando Scandrick back in the slot will help. He and Carr work well together and are solid in coverage, but Scandrick adds a bit of playmaking to the mix. Jones will be more dangerous at safety. A healthy Lee should get his hands on a couple more balls in 2016. But this defense, while right around league average in most yardage metrics and downright stout in the red zone, doesn’t have a true difference-making impact talent who can create takeaways and better opportunities for the offense.

4. What does Tony Romo have left?

This is a question that cannot be answered until we see No. 9 back on the field. The 37-year-old Romo missed most of last season with a broken left collarbone, the third such time he’s suffered the exact same injury.

He bounced back just fine the last time, from 2010 to 2011. But he’s older now and is coming off surgery to stabilize the clavicle, which had the structural integrity of a shredded wheat biscuit. I’m not worried (much) about his brief comeback last season, a truly awful performance against a strong Carolina defense. It is fair to question his ability to get back to being one of the best in the league at his advancing age and with his durability concern, however.

Romo’s greatest strength has been his ability to hang in under duress and deliver strikes all over the field. Not many have ever done that better, and it’s why he’s the NFL’s third all-time rated passer at 97.1. The mystifying INTs that plagued his earlier career are largely gone, but he still annually ranks near the top in yards per attempt and air yards per pass (how far the ball travels on his attempts). As long as he’s close to the same guy who finished 2014 on this tear…

…the Dallas offense will definitely perk up from last year’s moribund slog.

Adding Elliott behind him strengthens the run game, but I like that the Cowboys hedged the bet here by also signing powerful Alfred Morris while also retaining Darren McFadden. Morris has as much wiggle as an oak tree but runs with violence and maximizes what is blocked for him. McFadden topped 1,000 yards in a redemptive season in Dallas, averaging an impressive 4.6 yards per carry. He also showed flashes as a receiver, enough that he’s arguably the best No. 3 back in the league heading into his ninth season.

Dez Bryant is one of the most dynamic receivers in the league, and he and Romo have a cosmic connection that only gets developed over time. Need proof? Bryant looked pedestrian with the likes of Matt Cassel and Brandon Weeden last year before exiting stage left with a foot injury that clearly hampered the star wideout. Jason Witten returns for one more year as a reliable receiving tight end. He didn’t drop a catchable pass last year even though he’s lost more than one step over the course of his 14-year career.

All of that can only help Romo, but the biggest reason to be confident is the line in front of him. The Cowboys have heavily invested in the offensive line and it has paid huge dividends. Center Travis Frederick is one of the best at his position and is hands down the best run blocking pivot in the game. Right guard Zach Martin earns the same nod at his spot. They’re both deserving Pro Bowlers. La’el Collins comes off a strong rookie campaign at left guard. Like Martin he’s a better run blocker than pass protector but is no slouch in the latter either. Tyron Smith gets too much hype at left tackle but is unquestionably a stalwart as well. He’s quietly on the spot after giving up 8 sacks, scads of uncharacteristic pressures and committing several holding penalties. The hope is he was just mailing it in after Romo’s injury.

5. How do they manage expectations?

It’s not often a team coming off a thoroughly dismal 4-12 campaign is trumpeted by much of the national media as a legit Super Bowl contender, but most 4-12 teams aren’t the Dallas Cowboys. Being America’s Team, right or wrong, skews the perspective.

It’s easy, and also not incorrect, to write off last season because of the injuries to Romo, Bryant and the defense overall. The issue with this is it ignores so many other very real issues with the roster. The expectation is the healthy offensive weapons are more than enough to compensate and will lift this team back to its 2014 playoff winning ways.

That puts a great deal of pressure on Jason Garrett. He’s definitely seen this movie before, but this script is more complicated than past prequels. Dallas plays in a weak NFC East, which makes the prognostications of 11 wins and playoff home games seem more feasible to the demanding fan base and local media. Garrett has managed expectations well in the past, and he’s got a veteran staff around him with a great deal of continuity. They’ve even got one of the best kickers in the game in Dan Bailey to help win those close contests that haven’t always gone the right way for Garrett.

The concern here is if the team starts slowly, which is entirely possible with the defensive suspensions and Elliott’s iffy hamstring. Will Jerry Jones apply his not-so-subtle pressure if the team is 1-3, and how will they react? Dallas doesn’t shy away from aiming high. If they’re off target early, I worry things could snowball like they did last year for entirely different reasons.

Forecast

These Dallas Cowboys will be one of the NFL’s most intriguing stories to follow. Their offensive triplets--if all healthy--are incredibly skilled and benefit from playing with the league’s best line, and are reinforced by a great kicker and explosive-but-inconsistent return game. They should put up a lot more points than last year.

Unfortunately the defense seems poised to give up a lot more points than a year ago. The non-divisional schedule doesn’t help them, as they draw the QB-rich NFC North and an AFC North loaded with wide receiving talent. They also don’t match up well with their own NFC East foes. If they’re going to win games, expect a lot of shootouts.

The core talent here is quite impressive, and I like how Jason Garrett has settled into a relative comfort level under wildcat owner Jerry Jones. But unless the turnover margin swings wildly to the positive and a lot of defensive players turn in career-best seasons, it’s hard to see this team getting through a disadvantageous schedule with more wins than losses. I’m not buying the bounce-back hype. After struggling out of the gate to a 2-4 record into the bye week, Dallas finishes 6-10. 

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