RealGM Analysis
Wide Receivers
Tier 1: Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., Julio Jones
Tier 2: DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green, Dez Bryant, Allen Robinson
Tier 3: Mike Evans, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Jordy Nelson, Keenan Allen, Sammy Watkins, Brandin Cooks, Amari Cooper
Tier 4: Demaryius Thomas, TY Hilton, Randall Cobb, Julian Edelman, Jarvis Landry, Doug Baldwin, Jeremy Maclin, Eric Decker
Tier 5: Kelvin Benjamin, Donte Moncrief, John Brown, DeVante Parker, Jordan Matthews, Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, Emmanuel Sanders
Tier 6: DeSean Jackson, Allen Hurns, Michael Crabtree, Tyler Lockett, Kevin White, Torrey Smith, Sterling Shepard, Stefon Diggs
Tier 7: Kamar Aiken, Josh Gordon, Corey Coleman, Sammy Coates, Willie Snead, Michael Thomas, Markus Wheaton, Tavon Austin, Travis Benjamin, Steve Smith, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell, Chris Hogan
Tier 8: Phillip Dorsett, Vincent Jackson, Mohamed Sanu, Kendall Wright, Rishard Matthews, Devin Funchess, Will Fuller
* Players in bold are a few special picks whom I expect to significantly outperform their average draft position based on current ADP.
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Analysis
What has always been an important position in fantasy football has now ascended into the most impactful. It will be a surprise, or more accurately a mistake, if at least half of the first round picks in drafts are not wide receivers. In tier 3, I think Mike Evans will explode this year, with Sammy Watkins turning it up a notch – if he remains healthy. On the flip side, I have major concerns regarding Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders with the Denver QB situation in flux, and I’m also not as bullish on Kelvin Benjamin as others. DeVante Parker is another sleeper darling, and he could well go off – but he comes with risk and is going a bit high for my liking in current drafts.
The good news is wide receiver position is a deep position. Solid, steady options like Michael Crabtree and Torrey Smith (look for a bit of a rebound year) sit all the way in tier 6, with Tyler Lockett, Kevin White and Sterling Shepard providing higher upside potential. Tiers 7 and 8 also have useful pieces, some of which will make household names of themselves during the season.
As for strategy, while the WR position has good depth, make sure to get at least one WR from the top 3 tiers, with two from the group earning you a high draft grade. With the passing game continuing to dominate offensive play, having top level wide receivers becomes a necessity. For leagues where you start three wide receivers, this becomes even more critical. In addition to grabbing at least one anchor, make sure to also snag a few high upside plays in the later rounds.
Finally, a quick blurb as to why I think each player in bold has a good chance to outperform his ADP:
Donte Moncrief: This will likely be the last season that you will be able to draft Moncrief on the cheap. The talented wide receiver is entering his third season, and he’s ready to post a thousand yards and eight TD type of year. With Andrew Luck returning healthy and the Colts having a subpar defense, points will be need in spades, and the Colts will air it out. Moncrief complements TY Hilton nicely, and Moncrief will thrive as the Colts number two option in the passing game, edging close to Hilton-level production.
Sterling Shepard: Taking a gamble here with a player who has yet to play an NFL down, but the bet here is that Sterling Shepard becomes the rookie wide receiver to own. The early reviews from Giants’ camp have been extremely positive, and in Shepard, you have an excellent route runner for a rookie – which translates to early production on the field. With Odell Beckham attracting all kinds of attention, and the Giants’ running game being mediocre (at best), the Giants will primarily move the ball through the air. Look for Shepard to make the most of his opportunity and provide a great ROI for those who draft him.
Kamar Aiken: Last season Kamar Aiken very quietly posted a solid year, with 75 catches for 944 yards and five touchdowns. While fantasy owners continue to sleep on him, you should snag him in your draft in the mid to later rounds. Aiken has developed great chemistry and trust with QB Joe Flacco, and he’s a good route runner - which presumably leads to that trust. Aiken won’t lead you to a title on his own, but he can be a solid WR3 option at a fraction of the cost in the draft.
Sammy Coates: While Martavis Bryant’s year long suspension will make a dent in the Steelers’ passing attack, don’t shed too many tears for them. They will have the services of their alpha WR, Antonio Brown, along with young WRs Markus Wheaton and Sammy Coates. Wheaton has had two steady campaigns, and is set for a third this year. Their less heralded counterpart, Coates, actually has the higher ceiling. Coates is quick and has big play ability, fitting in well with the Steelers’ passing attack – especially with Antonio Brown attracting every defense’s prime attention. Coates is a great add in the mid-later rounds. Further, I will take a leap here and declare Coates as the better add than his teammate Wheaton.
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