RealGM Analysis
Running Backs
Tier 1: Adrian Peterson, Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, David Johnson, Lamar Miller
Tier 2: Le’Veon Bell, Mark Ingram, Devonta Freeman, Doug Martin, Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, Carlos Hyde, LeSean McCoy, Thomas Rawls
Tier 3: Matt Forte, Jonathan Stewart, Latavius Murray, CJ Anderson, Matt Jones
Tier 4: Jeremy Langford, DeMarco Murray, Jeremy Hill, Ryan Mathews, TJ Yeldon, Frank Gore, Duke Johnson, Melvin Gordon, James White, Jay Ajayi, Chris Ivory, Giovani Bernard, Rashad Jennings, Justin Forsett
Tier 5: DeAngelo Williams, Ameer Abdullah, Danny Woodhead, Arian Foster, LeGarrette Blount
Tier 6: Derrick Henry, Theo Reddick, Kenneth Dixon, Tevin Coleman, Christine Michael, Bilal Powel, Charles Sims, Isaiah Crowell, Darren Sproles, Jordan Howard, Charcandrick West
* Players in bold are a few special picks whom I expect to significantly outperform their average draft position based on current ADP.
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Analysis:
The RB position continues to become more and more uncertain from a fantasy perspective. How many worry-free RBs do you see here? Looking at tier 1, you have a 31-year-old, a player one year removed from a torn ACL, a rookie yet to play an NFL down, an RB with 581 career rushing yards, and a player who moved to a new team this offseason. And that’s tier 1!
Tier 2 leads off with a player suspended for the season’s first four games, albeit Bell will be bumped up if his suspension is reduced to two games. What you’ve got at the RB position is a royal mess with respect to safe ROIs.
As for a few thoughts on individual players (not counting the guys in bold, whom I write more in depth about below), I’ll start with Lamar Miller, whom I love now that he’s freed from the shackles of the previous incompetent Dolphins’ coaching staff. Bill O’Brien and the Texans know how to use stud RBs. On the flip side, I’m not as big of a fan of Devonta Freeman as others – his numbers slowed down tremendously as 2015 went on, which presents a legitimate red flag.
How to approach the RB situation? You should use caution this year and not overdraft RBs. The ideal scenario would have you snag at least one RB from tier 1 or 2, but if the opportunity presents itself to lock down two top WRs, don’t worry about bypassing the top RBs and going with a quantity approach instead. But don’t wait too long to start adding RBs if you go with this approach. By the end of the season, I expect to see many RBs bunched together in terms of season performance, so you will be able to get good value in the mid rounds and by keeping a close eye on the waiver wire.
Finally, a quick blurb as to why I think each player in bold has a good chance to outperform his ADP:
Carlos Hyde: Much attention has been turned to how the 49ers QB will perform under new coach Chip Kelly, whoever that QB will be. Flying under the radar has been the very capable Carlos Hyde. Chip Kelly’s offense gets lots of touches for running backs (look at LeSean McCoy from 2014 and not DeMarco Murray from last year as the appropriate example). And unlike many other RBs, Hyde has full grip on his team’s top RB position. Hyde also has an above average ability to miss tackles, one that he’ll show off more this season. Health will remain a concern with Hyde, but assuming he stays in one piece, look for him to provide better numbers than several RBs that get drafted ahead of him.
Duke Johnson: We’ve got a few factors going here which make Duke Johnson a nice sleeper candidate. First off, the Browns’ RB crew leaves much to be desired (looking at you, Isaiah Crowell). Second, the Browns will be terrible and often playing from behind. Third, Duke Johnson, as a pass catching option out of the backfield, will take advantage of the prior two points. New coach Hue Jackson likes to incorporate running backs into the passing game, and Duke Johnson’s skill set will fit perfectly for this offense. Look for Duke to take another step up this season – especially in PPR leagues.
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