Last Year: 8-8, 2nd in AFC South

Key Figures

Scoring offense: 20.8 ppg, 24th in NFL

Scoring defense: 25.5 ppg, 25th in NFL

Turnover margin: -5

After three straight seasons of playoff berths and double-digit wins, the Colts fell off in 2015. Most of the blame fell upon injuries, primarily to Andrew Luck. That was certainly a big factor, but it ignores the decline in overall talent level and depth for a team that has had far too many poor drafts for the better part of the last 10 years.

Now Chuck Pagano is charged with getting his Colts back atop the AFC South. Getting Luck back will certainly help, and many resources have gone to helping Anthony Castonzo protect the superstar QB. Several aging veterans, notably Robert Mathis and Frank Gore, are being heavily relied upon to continue making a major impact. Pagano made several changes to his coaching staff to try and shake things up. Will it be enough to return the 2014 AFC runner-up back to the postseason?

Five Questions

1. How quickly can the newcomers on offense get up to speed?

GM Ryan Grigson dedicated significant draft capital to overhauling the perennially thorny offensive line. The Colts drafted four (not one, not two, not three…) linemen in April, including first-round pick Ryan Kelly.

The Alabama center will be an immediate starter. He instantly rose atop the depth chart at the critical pivot position, where the Colts have tried for years to replace venerable Jeff Saturday with little success. Kelly was hands down the best center in this class and should be a significant upgrade over Khaled Holmes, Jonotthan Harrison et al. The biggest improvement should come in the run game, as the rookie was outstanding at opening holes and sustaining blocks to keep them open for Derrick Henry (now a Tennessee Titan) at Bama. Only the Chargers had a lower yards per rush attempt than Indy’s 3.6 last year, and the interior offensive line was more responsible for that than RB Frank Gore.

The other rookie linemen could all make an early dent, but don’t expect much from LeRaven Clark, Joe Haeg or Austin Blythe. Clark, a long-limbed tackle from Texas Tech, will get a shot to unseat pedestrian right tackle Joe Reitz. He’s got the athletic prowess but sorely needs technical refinement, and he comes from a system completely alien to NFL-style pass protection. Give him a year, Colts fans. Haeg is a more natural right tackle and could surprise if he can handle the jump from North Dakota State to the NFL. He impressed enough to earn a Senior Bowl berth, though he got hurt in the first few minutes of the first practice in Mobile. Haeg also offers potential to play right guard, and that’s a big hole up front too. Blythe comes from Iowa and has all the makings of a quality swing reserve, another role in desperate need of upgrade.

Indy scored well in picking up Gore last offseason, as the veteran proved he still had tread left on his aging tires. This offseason the Colts sought help upgrading his backups, signing Robert Turbin and Jordan Todman. If you could combine those two into one back, you’d have an ideal backup for Gore. Alas, neither has proven capable of being more than a No. 3 RB in numerous stops. Turbin is a big draft eval miss for me, a player I thought could become the next Marshawn Lynch, and this is likely his last chance to stick.

The backups behind Andrew Luck also changed, though not necessarily for the better. Out are Matt Hasselbeck, Charlie Whitehurst and even Josh Freeman. In comes Scott Tolzein and Stephen Morris. While the offense managed reasonably well with Hasselbeck (who had a higher completion percentage and better yards per attempt than Luck) last year, do not expect the same if Luck goes down once again. Tolzein failed to impress in Green Bay, and the track record for Packer backups moving elsewhere is about as positive as running a lawnmower over a bee’s nest. Morris has bounced around practice squads, including Indy’s at the end of last season.

One place the Colts didn’t add anyone even remotely significant is the receiving department. As long as the top three wideouts stay healthy, that’s not a problem. However, the most experienced wide receiver behind TY Hilton, Donte Moncrief and Philip Dorsett is Josh Boyce and his 9 career receptions, none since 2013. Of the undrafted rookies, Danny Anthrop from nearby Purdue has the best hands and route running while Tevaun Smith from Iowa brings the downfield jets.

2. What do the aged veterans on defense have left?

The Colts enter August with four projected starters on defense over the age of 32, including three of the four linebackers.

It would be one thing if all four were still sipping from the fountain of youth and coming off great seasons, but Father Time has already sunk his teeth into Trent Cole, D’Qwell Jackson, Mike Adams and even Robert Mathis to varying degrees.

Cole and Mathis are the top two pass rushers on the roster. That would have been fantastic even as late as 2013, but it’s now 2016. Mathis tied for the team lead with seven sacks last year, but that’s a far cry from his ’13 total of 19.5, which led the league at age 32. Mathis is now 35 and doesn’t quite have the twitchy burst off the snap or the fast feet to close the deal around the edge as dangerously as he used to. Make no mistake, Mathis is still an effective rusher who can impact an opposing blocking scheme. Yet needing him to get 10-12 sacks at 35 is different from hoping he can get last year’s 7.

Indy’s big problem is that Cole is still clearly the second-best pass rusher on the team and he’s just not that good anymore. Cole had to take a pay cut to stick around after a brutal 3-sack campaign where his juice meter often looked darn near empty. New Defensive Coordinator Ted Monachino, a rookie coordinator, is expected to harken back to Chuck Pagano’s Baltimore roots by using more of an aggressive hybrid front. That should fit the 34-year-old (in October) Cole to some degree. Cole could resurrect himself as a flame-throwing pass rusher off the edge, but asking him for more than 5 sacks--his cumulative total in his last 20 games--is asking for disappointment.

Jackson will start at one of the inside LB spots. That’s fine in some situations. The diminutive ex-Brown has always been strong at filling the run gaps and attacking plays in front of him. He’s still got his knack for chucking tight ends as they release, too. But his lateral range is very limited and Jackson was largely awful in coverage even in his prime.

As is the case with Cole, the Colts have to play Jackson simply because nobody even close to being better is anywhere in sight. Nate Irving, if he can ever stay on the field, is fine next to Jackson. After that the depth chart features Amarlo Herrera and Raiders castoff (worse than it sounds) Sio Moore. All hope lies in fourth-round rookie Antonio Morrison, who at Florida was a lot like Jackson as a force within the box and up the middle but a major liability elsewhere. The Colts are going to miss Jerell Freeman, who fled to Chicago for a very reasonable (3 years, $12M) free-agent contract, terribly.

Adams somehow made the Pro Bowl last year at safety. Perhaps it was his 5 INTs, though three of them came where Adams was the beneficiary of a lucky bounce and not actually initiating the pass defense. He actually injured himself making one of those against Peyton Manning. He’s a beloved guy, widely respected in the locker room and around the league. Few safeties are smarter, and the 5’10” Delaware product peaked after 30. Now he’s 35 however, and when he wasn’t getting lucky bounces he was getting beat over the top pretty regularly.

Again, there just isn’t anyone on the roster to replace him. Clayton Geathers is iffy for the start of the year with a foot injury and is always iffy in coverage. The Colts used a second-round pick on Clemson’s T.J. Green, who played wide receiver until 2014 and it shows. Clemson credited him with 17 missed tackles but that doesn’t count for all the ones he overran or never got where he was supposed to be. In the North Carolina game alone he had 7 of those, two of which went for TDs. Some of Adams’ value will come in his mentorship of the incredibly green (no pun intended) rookie. Winston Guy is a serviceable journeyman backup, nothing more.

Kicker Adam Vinatieri is the oldest player in the NFL at 43. Any time a player, even a venerable kicker like Vinatieri, starts adding numbers after the 4 it’s a legit concern. He was great last year though (25-of-27) and the leg still looks plenty strong when he nailed the 55-yard bomb in the upset win over Peyton Manning and the Broncos. He did miss three extra points. The Colts rely on the kicking great to extend the scoring range for the offense. As long as he’s still better than he was during his slump years of 2012-13, Vinatieri will be fine. He and Pat McAfee still form one of the best specialist combos in the league. 

3. Where does Andrew Luck go from here?

Andrew Luck is at an interesting crossroads four years into his career. Coming off a season where he missed half the year with injuries and where he wasn’t very good even when healthy, Luck still scored a mega contract. Indianapolis was smart to keep him, but he’ll have to play better to live up to all the money.

Criticizing Luck is a tricky ordeal. His defenders, and they are ardent and vociferous, point out just how great he has been at times. They bring up his outstanding ability to extend plays and make things happen when the protection breaks down. The rousing comeback wins, including the amazing one over Kansas City in the playoffs two years ago, those are legit.

Luck has been pretty good for most of his career to this point. I’m willing to concede some of his issues last year were directly related to the injuries even before he went inactive. The offensive line problems are not his fault, either. The thing I see with Luck is that he’s almost exactly the same player now that he was when he got to Indy from Stanford. That’s a blessing and a curse. He’s preternaturally above average, but that might be as great as he will ever be. And with this supporting cast, being simply above average is not going to be good enough for this Colts team.

He’s got to take a step forward in his ability to read linebackers. He needs to be better from the pocket when throwing the ball outside the numbers. He must start games better; his career completion percentage in his first ten attempts of games is exactly 55%, with an almost even 17-to-16 TD/INT rate. His career averages are 58% and 101/55.

All of those problem areas can be improved. Luck is a bright guy who comes from a football family, and nobody ever questions his work ethic or drive. The 2014 Luck showed signs of breaking through and meeting the considerable hype that he’s worn since he was in high school. Will No. 12 be able to resurrect that magic, or will he wind up being the same Luck he’s been every other year since about 2009? Indianapolis fans can be easily forgiven for believing in the magic, but strip away the ’14 season and Luck has been a mid-level NFL quarterback. The Colts didn’t make him the highest paid player in NFL history to not be demonstrably better than Matthew Stafford or Matt Ryan. Other than about a 12-game stretch, Luck has not done that.

4. Which unsung players step up?

Good teams always find meaningful contributions from unexpected sources. If these Colts are going to get back to being a good team, several lesser regarded or role players will have to step up.

The most likely contributor is tight end Dwayne Allen, though he deserves an asterisk for not being more highly thought of. Injuries have slowed his career thus far. Luck’s draft classmate has always had a great deal of receiving talent. With overrated Coby Fleener now gone to New Orleans, Allen will get a chance at a lot more targets. I love his chances if he can stay on the field.

Tight end is the deepest position on the team even with Fleener gone. Jack Doyle is another player with real upside. The Indianapolis native has 30 catches over the last two seasons but is capable of more. If undrafted rookie Darion Griswold can make an impression in camp, he’s got legit potential to make an impact. The Arkansas State product appears destined for the practice squad as a rookie though.

Speaking of undrafted rookies, keep an eye on nifty Josh Ferguson from Illinois at running back. With the newcomers less than impressive track records, there is an opening for a back with his particular set of skills. Ferguson excels at swing passes, screens and delayed handoffs, getting to top speed in a flash and being able to cut sharply at full gallop. He should beat out Todman if the fight is fair. 

It’s hard to call a 2015 first-rounder unsung, but the immediate returns on wideout Philip Dorsett weren’t pretty. Dorsett caught less than half his targets and struggled mightily with the increased physicality and complexity of the NFL. Now he’s had an offseason to process what he learned and apply himself to fixing it. I really liked his talent coming out of Miami and it’s way too early to give up on him.

Last year the Colts got this sort of surprise positive performance from defensive end Kendall Langford. His strong play against the run was no surprise, but the team-leading 7 sacks came from out of nowhere. The beefy Langford averaged just 2 sacks a season over his first seven years in the league. Perhaps fourth-round rookie Hassan Ridgeway can emulate Langford and turn in over five sacks from the other end spot. With veteran Arthur Jones suspended four games and Henry Anderson likely nursing his knee injury well into the season, the door is wide open for Ridgeway to make a splash. He’s always had talent but struggled with nagging maladies and consistent effort while at Texas. If Pagano and Defensive Line Coach Gary Emanuel can reach him, Ridgeway will make that fourth-round selection seem a fantastic value.

Patrick Robinson cashed in on just this type of year in coming to the Colts. A first-round bust in New Orleans, the lanky corner turned his career around in one strong year in San Diego. The Colts took a risk that he wasn’t just a contract year wonder and that he can continue to improve once arriving in Indy, just as Vontae Davis has done at the other CB spot. Davis has emerged as one of the best cover men in the league even after a down ’15. If Robinson shores up the slot, or even steps up and mans the outside CB spot, he’s a great find at a position of real need. Utility DB Darius Butler is another candidate here in a secondary that could be a strength or a weakness.

5. Can the Grigson/Pagano marriage continue?

One of the most surprising developments of the offseason was owner Jim Irsay’s curious decision to extend both Head Coach Chuck Pagano and GM Ryan Grigson. The smart money, even with high-ranking league insiders, was that at least one of the duo would be gone. Many pundits significantly higher up the media food chain than myself expected both coach and GM to get the axe, at least for a brief time.

Yet here they are, back for year five together. Pagano missed most of the first season with his successful battle with cancer, but deserves ample credit for getting a listing ship back on course. Getting Luck, Grigson’s first draft pick as a rookie GM, certainly helped. Yet it seems so long ago since the team advanced to the AFC Championship Game following the 2014 season.

The honeymoon is over. Grigson’s drafts have underwhelmed, and prominent free-agent signings like Gosder Cherilus and Andre Johnson have proven dreadful busts. Pagano’s one-note coaching style has largely stalled out, failing to develop young prospects and proving too slow to make in-game adjustments or anticipate opposing countermeasures.

There is definitely tension, and working under the very visible Irsay only exacerbates the situation. Expectations are high, almost certainly higher than what this disjointed, thin roster can deliver. Both men share the blame, but have done enough to build walls between them to not necessarily go down with the same ship if it starts to sink faster than Irsay and fans can stomach.

Pagano can help himself by getting more from the defensive youngsters like David Parry and D’Joun Smith while also milking one more year out of the greybeards noted above. There appears to be no way Pagano could possibly survive another season where the team finishes in the bottom 10 in both offense and defense. Of course he could rightfully point at Grigson and say he didn’t get a fair shake with so many bad decisions from above. Pagano made several changes to his staff, which includes two former NFL head coaches (Joe Philbin, Rob Chudzinski) who could easily step up and take an “interim coach” label if the team falters once again.

This tension dissipates if the Colts storm out of the gate and several members of the last two draft classes are key parts of that. It would pose an interesting dilemma for Irsay on rewarding one, or both, but I’m sure Colts fans would happily accept that potential situation if it means they get back to the top of the still bottom-heavy AFC South.

Forecast

The 2015 Colts were such a strange case. Looking back, it’s shocking they somehow eked out 8 wins despite ranking in the bottom 10 in both offense and defense and playing half the year with a litany of backup quarterbacks.

It’s telling those Colts outkicked their predicted Pythagorean win expectation by two games. The other teams to finish in the bottom 10 on both sides of the ball were Cleveland, Baltimore and Tennessee. Nobody wants to hear it, but these Colts are a lot closer to being in the ballpark with those teams than they are the playoff contenders many expect them to be.

The cold reality is this Indianapolis team will need a great deal of luck to even match last year’s eight wins. There are a scant few players on this roster in their prime years, seasons 4-8 of their careers. The starting 11 on offense features the bulk of that, and the core of Luck, Hilton, Castonzo and Allen definitely has the potential to rocket out of the 2015 depths. If the starters can stay healthy, and that goes far beyond Luck at QB, Indy is going to be able to outscore a lot of opponents.

As noted above, Luck is the key. He has to live up to the increased expectations that come with being the highest paid football player in world history. With so little depth at just about every spot around him, he’ll need all the luck he can get in terms of good health and consistent performances. The same is true on defense, where so many fading veterans are being heavily relied upon in key roles. I like some of the recent young draft picks, but there is no veteran middle class and even worse depth on that side of the ball.

In short, I see the margin of error for the core team here as very small. They do catch a break with a favorable early schedule, and shooting out to a 3-1 or 4-2 start can widen that margin considerably. It’s feasible, but I don’t see it. Unless Luck is an obvious MVP candidate and the defense creates over 2 takeaways per game, this team will lose more games than it wins. Indianapolis finishes a disappointing 6-10.

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