RealGM Analysis
Quarterbacks
Tier 1: Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger
Tier 2: Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Tom Brady, Blake Bortles, Tony Romo
Tier 3: Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr, Philip Rivers, Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton, Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, Tyrod Taylor
Tier 4: Ryan Tannehill, Marcus Mariota, Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco
Tier 5: Brock Osweiler, Alex Smith, Sam Bradford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Teddy Bridgewater
* Players in bold are a few special picks whom I expect to significantly outperform their average draft position based on current ADP.
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Analysis:
Cam Newton will likely sit atop the quarterback rankings for most prognosticators for the 2016 fantasy season, which makes sense based on his dual threat skills and the leap he took in 2015. The line of separation between Newton and the other top QBs is where the divergence occurs among different rankings. From my view, any of the top six QBs could legitimately finish the season as the top ranked QB, so I have these guys all ranked within a stone’s throw of each other – with some stones to be chucked a little further than others.
Carson Palmer leads off tier 2, as he comes with greater injury risk than the tier 1 crew. Tom Brady’s suspension drops him into tier 2 as well, and Eli Manning, Blake Bortles and Tony Romo round up the tier, all of which providing strong options. A rejuvenated Matthew Stafford heads tier 3 (more on him later), and several other solid QBs join Stafford, including Jameis Winston – with more on him later as well. You hit a bit of a drop when reaching the tier 4 group, so I would suggest sticking with tiers 1 through 3 for your starting QB.
Now let’s talk QB strategy. To get my point across, I’m going to shout the following:
Do not pick a quarterback prior to the third round of your draft!!
Capiche? And let me make clear – 3rd round is early. Just looking at the top two tiers, there are eleven strong starting QB options, and this ignores Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan and others. You can get a solid QB by waiting. If your league starts two QBs, then you can ignore this message. Otherwise, solidify your other positions before drafting a QB. The ideal strategy in my opinion would be to let others overdraft a QB, and the wait and take a pair of QBs – such as a Stafford/Rivers combo, or get Winston in the mix if you want an upside play. You can play weekly matchups from there and get good QB numbers that way at a fraction of the cost. Now if an Andrew Luck drops to the seventh round, or some other great value proposition presents itself, don’t hesitate to pounce. But for this season, patience in selecting your QB will be rewarded.
Finally, a quick blurb as to why I think each player in bold has a good chance to outperform his ADP:
Matthew Stafford: Matthew Stafford played two different seasons in 2015: pre-Jim Bob Cooter and post-Jim Bob Cooter. Stafford’s numbers took off from games nine through sixteen, which are the games where Cooter served as offensive coordinator. For the first half of the year, Stafford threw 13 TDs and 11 INTs, while averaging 260 yards per game. For the second half of the season, Stafford threw 19 TDs and 2 INTs, while averaging 272 yards per game. So while the yardage remained consistent, Stafford’s TD:INT ratio took a turn for the elite. While Megatron’s loss will be felt, look for Marvin Jones to help pick up the slack (along with Golden Tate). Jim Bob Cooter’s offense fits Stafford well, and you will get a fantastic ROI if you draft Stafford in the later rounds.
Jameis Winston: Jameis Winston quietly had a strong rookie campaign, finishing with 22 TDs, 15 INTs and over 4,000 yards passing, along with 6 rushing TDs. With a year of experience under his belt, an offensive minded head coach in Dirk Koetter and several strong options in the passing game – including stud WR Mike Evans – look for Winston to take a step up in his sophomore season. Winston should be available fairly cheap in your drafts, and he’s even got a shot to provide top ten numbers. Great add if you want to make a play on his upside at a low cost.
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