Last year: 9-7, won NFC East

Key numbers

Point Differential: +9

Scoring Offense: 24.2 ppg, 10th in NFL

Scoring Defense: 23.7 ppg, 17th in NFL

Jay Gruden found a winning combination in his second season with Washington. Making the controversial switch from Robert Griffin III to Kirk Cousins at quarterback worked magically, helping to elevate the bottom dwellers to an unexpected NFC East title. A defense built around the outside linebackers stepped up and made plays, and the special teams finally escaped the abyss.

New GM Scot McCloughan quickly assembled a more confident, cohesive and deeper team than nearly anyone expected. Now the expectations are higher. Almost all the key pieces are back in place, and much of the core talent is at or entering their peak seasons. This franchise has struggled for years to string together any sort of sustained success, which makes the national trepidation understandable. Still, this is a team that has a great chance to repeat. In order for that to happen, they need to affirmatively answer these five questions.

Five Key Questions

1. How does the offensive line shake out?

For a line that ranked 10th in sack percentage and features some solid young talent, it’s a bit ponderous this is such a question for Washington. Yet there is a feeling the offensive line needs to play better.

There are no questions at left tackle where Trent Williams is one of the most consistent at his position. Williams isn’t spectacular but also doesn’t have any real holes to his game, which is why he’s earned Pro Bowl nods four years running. Williams has great feet and a stifling ability to stay engaged.

The hope is a healthy return from Kory Lichtensteiger will help shore up the interior. The center missed most of last season with a neck injury. Lichtensteiger is an average center, but the team really missed him in the run game. They also badly missed left guard Shaun Lauvao, the best people mover on the front line. He barely played because of an ankle injury. What Lauvao lacks in pass protection, and it is certainly lacking, he makes up for with grit and technical ability in the rushing offense. Fill-ins Spencer Long and Josh LeRibeus proved they should be fighting for the same backup job and nothing more. If the projected starters are healthy and Williams is his typical self, the inability to grind out tough yards and struggles to run left should clear up. It is imperative Lauvao can get back to his old self, but after myriad surgeries it is not a given.

Brandon Sherff was strong at right guard as a rookie. It’s odd to see a top-5 overall pick wind up playing a position that on most teams is the least important member of the offense, but Sherff looked like he belonged. He was handily the team’s best run blocker. The Iowa product was also a holding machine, something that No. 75 will need to clean up going forward.

Right tackle Morgan Moses is functional, but this is another spot where most teams have better run blocking than Washington does. OL Coach Bill Callahan has made Moses his pet project, and while there was improvement from ’14 to ’15, there are too many plays where Moses is just not quick-twitch enough.

The depth does have experience, though most of it is not all that positive. LeRibeus was miscast at center, while rookie Arie Kouandjio didn’t impress in his limited audition at guard. The reserve tackles are a gaggle of street free agents and practice squad wannabes, though I suspect Sherff would kick outside if either Williams or Moses goes down.

2. Can Kirk Cousins do it again?

One of the most astonishing statistics from the 2015 season is Washington leading the NFL in completion percentage. The bookies don’t put odds on that stat, but if they did you could have won years of college tuition betting on the long odds of Kirk Cousins and Washington topping that metric.

The unexpected progression by the 2012 fourth-round pick elevated Washington to an NFC East title. However, if the team is to defend that title Cousins must continue to ascend as an all-around quarterback. In the past he has been dogged by the occasional bonehead gaffes and bouts of wild inconsistency. Those leveled out last year, but given his track record even going back to Michigan State, it’s hard to be confident it pervades.

I tend to believe in Cousins more than most, though my eyes are still definitely skeptical. He showed strong command of coordinator Sean McVay’s offense after seizing the starting job early last summer. With all the main pieces back, both at receiver and in the coaching staff, Cousins should feel both confident and comfortable with the continuity. I don’t expect him to lead the NFL in completion percentage once again, and I think the INT rate might rise back up.

The talent around him in the passing game will certainly help. The top four receivers from last season all return, spearheaded by superb tight end Jordan Reed. While Reed just missed 1,000 yards, he led the Skins in catches, targets, yards and TDs. He’s one of the most productive and dangerous tight ends in the league. There are always durability issues, as the lithe route runner has missed 14 games over his first three seasons and isn’t built for heavy in-line combat. Reed is my bet to lead all tight ends in receptions and touchdowns in 2016.

The top three wideouts are all back, though the order might shake up with a prominent new addition. Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson figure to start at the X and Y spots. That’s not a bad duo, and the two styles complement one another nicely. Garcon is the savvy veteran, a steady presence but lacking any semblance of dynamism to his game. Jackson brings the sizzle with his electrifying speed, abundant confidence and loquacious trash talking. It would be great if his game had a rudder, but DJax gonna DJax in the parlance of the times.

To help insure against Jackson’s volatility and Garcon’s underwhelming (10.6 yards per catch, one 100-yard game in two years) output, McCloughan wisely invested the team’s first-round pick in Josh Doctson. The TCU product was my top wideout in the draft. His ability to extend his catch radius and separate from tight coverage with the ball in the air is a great fit with a QB like Cousins, who has shown almost detrimental trust in his receivers to make difficult catches on questionable throws. Other than his slender frame and some nagging injury issues, Doctson has all the ability to quickly usurp Garcon as the primary wideout target in Washington.

Jamison Crowder proved a competent slot receiver as a fourth-round rookie. He’s limited at just 5’8” and 174 pounds, but his instant quickness and tenacity in traffic allowed Crowder to make his mark quickly. Importantly, he caught almost half (25) of his 59 receptions against division foes. Ryan Grant is an acceptable No. 4 outside receiver, though the team has no proven depth in the slot or beyond Grant. Keep an eye on undrafted rookie Reggie Diggs from Richmond, a widebody I liked quite a bit during the draft process. 

3. Will the run offense and defense improve?

One of the more disturbing issues that plagued Washington in 2015 was the failure of both the rushing offense and the run defense.

 

Value

Rank

Yards per carry

3.7

29th

Yards per carry allowed

4.8

30th

Rushing 1st Downs allowed

6.7/game

29th

It wasn’t like Gruden’s offense didn’t try to run; their 41% rushing attempts ranked 14th. They just weren’t very good at it. Some of this question will be answered by the above offensive line discussion, but the backs need to produce more and the offense needs to be less predictable.

About those backs. Alfred Morris, the lead back for the last few seasons, is now with the rival Cowboys. That might not be a bad thing, as the pounding Morris steadily declined after a phenomenal rookie campaign. He missed too many holes and didn’t have the acceleration to get to, or through, others.

Unfortunately, his replacements do not inspire much confidence. Matt Jones disappointed as a third-round rookie. Like Morris, he struggled behind the inadequate blocking but also didn’t help himself enough by showing limited vision and a frustrating inability to expediently get to the open lane.

When he was at Florida, I saw from Jones more vision and ability to make the initial tackler miss. Perhaps that will come back to the front burner in his second season in Washington. It needs to or else it will be that much harder for Cousins to sell the play action that is so integral to their offensive success. His five fumbles in 144 carries is a real problem that could limit how much more trust Gruden & Co. can instill in Jones.

More Chris Thompson could, and probably should be the answer. The speedy third-year back has a lethal blend of pure speed and instant acceleration. Last year he had as many receptions as carries, with 35 of each. Consider this: he averaged 6.2 yards per carry and 6.9 yards per reception. The hope is Thompson proves he can handle a higher workload without sacrificing the explosiveness.

Rookie Keith Marshall could factor in if he can stay healthy, something he struggled with mightily during his Georgia career. Marshall has the all-around type of skill set to thrive in Sean McVay’s offense. The fullback from last year, Darrel Young, is gone. The only replacement is undrafted free agent Joe Kerridge, who is no lock to make the team. Washington uses multiple tight end sets much more than most teams, so guys like Derek Carrier and Niles Paul will see action as the H-back much more than using a traditional two-back set.

On defense, the inability to stop teams that committed to running the ball was a major issue. Offenses found a lot of running room between the tackles against Washington’s 3-4 front, notably when they kept in a tight end or used a lead blocker.

Changes abound up front. Out goes Terrance Knighton and Jason Hatcher, two aged veterans who just didn’t get the job done. The problem is, the replacements might not be much better. Kedric Golston has been decent in limited duty but asking him to be the fulltime nose tackle is probably asking too much. Maybe journeyman Ziggy Hood finds a home, but that’s a longshot. Former Charger Kendall Reyes is nothing more than a role player. He’s in a battle with converted linebacker Trent Murphy for one end spot. On a good defense, both are bit players. Ricky-Jean Francois is fine in small doses but probably holds more value as a leader than what he does in run defense.

Chris Baker was a pleasant surprise at the other end, though he’s on the field for his pass rush and not his run defense. If he can learn to better play the run on the way to the pass rush, Baker has Pro Bowl potential. “Swaggy” should at least match his 6 sacks and 3 forced fumbles from a year ago.

The linebackers were also a big part of the problem in run defense. Inside backer is the biggest hole on the team. Perry Riley, Will Compton and Mason Foster all return and two of those three will start. Compton got better as 2015 progressed, but he needed to in order to rise up to adequate. Riley is coming off a foot injury and has never established himself as anything more than a guy who occasionally flashes but always needs to be looking over his shoulder.

One potential solution here is second-round rookie Su’a Cravens, who is nominally a safety but is essentially an undersized linebacker. If he can provide some oomph as a situational run defender, he’s worth the pick. The outside backers, Ryan Kerrigan and Preston Smith, are both solid against the run but play a more integral role in the pass rush. Smith enters his second season poised to be a double-digit sack star, while Kerrigan remains one of the league’s most unsung two-way linebackers.

4. What happens in the defensive back seven?

Adding Pro Bowl corner Josh Norman is a lucky bolt of lightning to a positional group in desperate need of both depth and energy. The Panthers balked at paying him, but Washington had no problem doling out $75 million over five years.

Is he worth it? Norman plays with a great deal of confidence and is very impressive with the ball in the air. He needs safety help with speedy wideouts and can get too caught up in his own individual battle, both valid reasons why Carolina let him go. Washington fans are likely going to be taken aback if they’re expecting Norman to be a blanket in coverage, but he does indeed represent an upgrade. His size is a nice foil for guys like Dez Bryant and Odell Beckham, and he’s always been a good tackler. He is better both in theory and in likelihood of success than Chris Culliver (now cut) a year ago

Norman’s presence pushes Bashaud Breeland to the No. 2 CB role where he belongs. Breeland has proven a decent starter when not trying to shut down great players, but he lacks the speed and twitch to handle the great ones. Now he won’t have to, and as a result the overall pass defense should upgrade. His 16 PDs led the team and with Norman’s 18 in Carolina gives the Skins a dangerous pair of ballhawks.

Nickel CB is a potential thorn. Cagey veteran Will Blackmon has bulked up and is moving to safety. Quinton Dunbar is the de facto third CB now. Consider he entered 2015 training camp as a wide receiver, where he played at Florida. He’s got size and flashed some potential, but it’s a real leap to think teams won’t pick on him. The team doesn’t have anyone who fits well in the slot, though Breeland isn’t bad inside. If Colts castoff Greg Toler makes the team, it’s not a good sign.

Safety has been a bugaboo position for years around FedEx Field. The Skins finally got decent play from the unlikely combo of converted CB DeAngleo Hall and late-round rookie Kyshoen Jarrett. Hall prolonged his career with the move. His gambling style of play seems circumspect for the spot, but it generally worked. Factor his coverage-specialist orientation into the run defense issues though. David Bruton and Duke Ihenacho will compete for the other safety spot. Bruton plays well when the play is in front of him, it’s keeping the play there which is the issue. Ihenacho played only briefly last season, and his presence in the run game was missed.

That Ihenacho injury pushed Jarrett into the lineup, and he was a revelation. The sixth-rounder dramatically outplayed his draft status. Unfortunately, his career is in real jeopardy after a nasty neck injury. Few expect him to play in ’16. With Blackmon transitioning they do have experienced depth, though the lack of a young up-and-comer could be felt on special teams.

5. Was 2015 a fluke?

This is a pesky question, one which most Washington fans would rather not acknowledge needs asking. Yet with the dubious history of this franchise during the Dan Snyder era, it has to be asked.

Washington has not made the playoffs in consecutive seasons since 1991-92. Beyond that, this is a team which hasn’t strung together two winning seasons since 1996-97. The last three times the Skins made the playoffs, they followed up by coming in last place in the NFC East.

Circumstance is obviously a big factor, and this is why the Skins have a chance to break from their inglorious track record. The last time Washington came off a playoff berth, quarterback Robert Griffin was injured and the defense collapsed. This time around, Cousins provides a more known entity at quarterback and the firepower at his disposal is more stable and potent.

A big reason for optimism is McCloughan. The GM has a much more structured, stable plan of attack than predecessor Mike Shanahan or those before him. He has augmented the overall depth while keeping key pieces in place. It speaks volumes that of the draft class, only Doctson will be leaned upon for major reps. Guys like Su’a Cravens, Kendall Fuller and Matt Ioannidis won’t be rushed onto the field but provide some promising depth. Acquiring Norman is a real coup, picking up a significant upgrade at a position of major need at a relatively low cost. In the past, Washington was the team giving up the player, not reeling him in.

Another thing to consider: most of the key players here are in their athletic prime years. Cousins, Kerrigan, Williams, Reed, Norman, Baker--all are in their mid to late 20s and still ascending talents. Garcon is the oldest offensive starter and he turns 30 in August. The core of this team is in its prime but also has a lot of experience playing together. That’s a tangible intangible, if you will.

Because of all of that, I think this Washington ship stays high afloat. It’s hard to see the rest of the NFC East being so downtrodden once again, however. It’s still one of the weakest in the league, but all three divisional enemies should be more of a threat. Fortunately for Washington, I believe their management structure and strong core roster will prevent the collapses of recent playoff follow-up years.

Forecast

I’m bullish on Washington’s chances to repeat. I like that they open with two home games, though Pittsburgh and Dallas are no easy foes. If they can come out of that gate strong, they have a chance to rack up some wins. Their schedule features several teams (Baltimore, Detroit, Carolina, Green Bay, the Giants) who are in a similar state; they could be pretty good but also have enough flaws to make them vulnerable to more losses than wins. As long as these Skins manage those opponents, it is hard for me to see them not winning 8 games. Obviously a regression from Cousins and continued struggles in run defense would make that quite difficult. The core talent here is better than advertised. They should be a good team even with a slight fallback from Cousins and the special teams, which dramatically upticked in ’15 as well.

As for playoff success…it will take some luck. Then again, if they do make it back, Washington has already proven that luck is on its side. The schedule is tougher than last year, but it’s also tougher for all their divisional foes. In my eyes, Washington has the most complete roster in the NFC East. I predict an 8-8 finish, but that might be good enough to win the NFC East once again if they capture the tiebreakers.

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