The dust is barely settling on the 2016 NFL Draft and already the focus shifts to 2017. I just started initial groundwork on some of the top prospects.

One of the things I look for is improvement at football skills over the course of a college career. For quarterbacks, that means field vision and ball placement. For defensive linemen, it means hand usage and locating the ball. For cornerbacks, it’s route recognition and footwork in transition.

Balancing the physical potential with the football growth is a very difficult, and often fruitless, exercise. Yet here I am doing just that, and also trying to forecast what teams will find players and traits desirable in another year.

Last year I correctly named 15 of the 31 first-rounders, with 10 of the first 16 players nailed. I also had some wild misses (Corey Robinson?!?) which illustrate just how much fun it is to watch everything play out.

The draft order here is based on season win total over/unders from the sports book of my choice. I broke ties based on which team has the better quarterback in my opinion. The only team to move more than two spots based on that criteria was Oakland moving in the positive direction. You think this order is wrong? Go put some money on it, the bookies will happily accept your wager…

1. Cleveland Browns: DeShaun Watson, QB, Clemson. If they’re picking this high it means the Robert Griffin experiment at QB failed. I’m actually more optimistic than that on RG3’s potential, but I’ll color within the lines here. Watson has all kinds of athletic talent and his touch is exceptional. He’s the presumptive Heisman front-runner and odds-on favorite for the No. 1 overall pick.

2. San Francisco 49ers: Tim Williams, Edge, Alabama. Williams turns the corner on opposing tackles and gets to the quarterback a lot more impressively than any of the top ’16 edge rushers. He could pair with ’16 first-rounder DeForest Buckner to present all kind of problems for opposing offenses. Chip Kelly loves him some high-strung edge rushers.

3. San Diego Chargers: Brad Kaaya, QB, Miami FL. This is projecting pretty significant development from Kaaya, a talented guy with inconsistent tape. He’s got a lot of real tools to work with. If the Chargers are picking here--again--it’s time to close the book on the Philip Rivers' era, whether it’s his fault or not.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars: Cam Robinson, T, Alabama. The Jaguars have some long-term uncertainty at tackle, and Robinson would definitely remedy that issue. His blend of smooth movement and technical mastery on the left side is NFL-ready right now.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Myles Garrett, Edge, Texas A&M. For the record, I do not believe the Bucs will be picking in the top 10 in ’17. If they are, one of the primary culprits will be the inability of the defense to impact the opposing QB. Myles Garrett does that exceptionally well. He’s a good sleeper to go No. 1 overall.

6. Tennessee Titans: Desmond King, CB, Iowa. King surprised many by returning to Iowa, as his length and technique both would have put him near the top of class in ’16. I suspect the Titans wouldn’t mind waiting a year for his playmaking and run support.

7. New Orleans Saints: Jabrill Peppers, DEF, Michigan. Peppers is going to play CB, safety and linebacker for the Wolverines this year. He’ll likely get quite a few snaps on offense again, too. He’s got the versatility and wild athleticism of Myles Jack from the ’16 draft and a clean bill of health. The Saints can certainly find good use for that.

8. Cleveland Browns (from PHI): Carl Lawson, Edge, Auburn. Injuries are a huge variable with Lawson, who has missed 19 games the last two years with a torn ACL and a hip problem. He showed a lot of potential when he’s played, with twitchy quickness and a broad repertoire of pass rush moves both inside and out. The Browns have spent a lot of draft capital improving the offense, now it’s time to address the defense with a potential impact talent.

9. Miami Dolphins: Derek Barnett, Edge, Tennessee. The Volunteers didn’t have a player taken at all in 2016, but that will emphatically change in ’17, especially if Barnett declares early. He’s bagged 10 sacks in each of his two seasons, and he does this while playing the run quite well too. I like the idea of playing him flanking Ndamukong Suh and running line gimmicks to free one or the other on the QB.

10. Detroit Lions: Jonathan Allen, DE, Alabama. Freaky depth on the DL pushed Allen into a part-time role for Alabama, and he responded by still racking up huge pressure and sack numbers. He should play more in ’16, and if he continues his blowtorch approach to pass blockers, this will be seen as a steal for the Lions. Detroit seems to love the 275+ pound DE’s.

11. Tennessee Titans (from LA): Eddie Vanderdoes, DT, UCLA. It was Vanderdoes and not ’16 first-rounder Kenny Clark who was the featured interior presence before he got hurt in the ’15 opener. As long as his knee looks good, expect big things from one of the most difficult-to-block agitators and disruptors in the nation. The Titans stockpiling talented upgrades on defense makes a lot of sense.

12. Chicago Bears: Evan Engram, TE, Ole Miss. A smooth pass catcher with strong open-field ability, Engram surprised many by returning to school. He’s in the class of hybrid TE/WR but faster and quicker than most guys in that lump. The Bears sorely need a playmaker at TE and Engram is the best in class, even if he doesn’t block much.

13. Washington: Raekwon McMillan, LB, Ohio State. For all the record-setting talent the Buckeyes lost in the ’16 draft, it was the rangy, hard-hitting McMillan who led Ohio State in tackles. He can do a little bit of everything at any LB spot, a versatile piece for a defense that didn’t add much at the second level of the defense in this past draft.

14. Atlanta Falcons: Jalen Tabor, CB, Florida. The Gators lose two first-rounders from the secondary, but some observers will tell you Tabor is better than either Vernon Hargreaves or Keanu Neal, who would be his Falcons teammate. Size, speed and ball skills are big selling points, even if corner doesn’t appear to be the biggest need in Atlanta.

15. Buffalo Bills: Malik McDowell, DT, Michigan State. The active, cat-quick McDowell is an ideal fit for a Ryan brothers’ defense. He’s a natural 5T but has the strength to kick inside, the agility to move out in varied fronts.

16. Houston Texans: Jamal Adams, S, LSU. Adams shows range and a knack for getting his hands on the ball, and his tackling is a nice bonus for a Texans defense that has a long history of having one-dimensional safeties.

17. Oakland Raiders: Juju Smith-Schuster, WR, USC. He’s the same size as ’16 first-rounder Laquon Treadwell but plays significantly faster. This might be too low for the talented Trojan, though I suspect the Raiders wouldn’t mind pairing him with Amari Cooper for a potentially ridiculous 1-2 wideout punch.

18. New York Jets: Roderick Johnson, OT, Florida State. Big and agile on the edge, Johnson is the next in line of a long history of Seminole tackles to grace the draft’s upper echelon. The Jets have a stopgap in Ryan Clady but sorely need long-term solutions and depth at both tackle spots.

19. New York Giants: Bentley Spain, OT, North Carolina. A rising true junior who thrived thanks to great balance and coordinated movement, Spain could be one of this season’s most pleasant surprises. The Giants haven’t been shy about taking chances on lesser-known projects, with varying degrees of success.

20. Baltimore Ravens: Mike Williams, WR, Clemson. As long as he’s medically cleared from his broken neck bone, the lithe Williams is a big-play machine for Clemson. He could be that for the Ravens too, with his size and burst off the line easily translatable to the NFL level.

21. Indianapolis Colts: Eddie Jackson, S, Alabama. The move from corner to safety fit like a glove, and now Jackson is one of the best coverage safety prospects to hit the draft. Another year of development should solidify first-round status and make a nice fit for the Colts and their rebuilding defense.

22. Minnesota Vikings: Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU. What better way to replace Adrian Peterson, who will be 32 and entering the final--and easily escapable--year of his contract in 2017? Fournette has the same hard-charging style and physical dominance.

23. Kansas City Chiefs: Jarrad Davis, LB, Florida. Another key cog in the talented Gator defense, Davis is a rangy, instinctive backer with strong tackling form and a good feel for coverage. I like him as a 3-4 ILB, and that’s exactly what the Chiefs figure to need heading into 2017.

24. Dallas Cowboys: Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma. Would Jerry Jones really pull the trigger on Mayfield to groom as Tony Romo’s eventual replacement even after tabbing Dak Prescott in the fourth round? If Mayfield continues to grow as a passer, he might not have a choice.

25. Cincinnati Bengals: Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State. Could we see multiple first-round running backs? Cook certainly has the talent to merit inclusion, and his style would fit nicely in Cincinnati even though it’s not a pressing need.

26. Arizona Cardinals: Adoree Jackson, CB, USC. He’s got strong enough ball skills to be USC’s best wideout, but Jackson’s NFL ticket is as a playmaking corner and return man. The Cardinals need a youthful infusion on the back end, especially if Tyrann Mathieu’s knee injury lingers.

27. Carolina Panthers: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford. Another first-round RB?!? The electrifying McCaffrey would be hard to resist for the Panthers, adding a playmaking spark behind Cam Newton with the reigning Heisman winner.

28. Denver Broncos: Skai Moore, LB/S, South Carolina. Moore flies all over the field with a sharp eye for the ball. He’ll wind up leading his team in tackles all four years, and his coverage ability translates nicely as a hybrid safety/LB at 6’2” and 222 pounds.

29. Pittsburgh Steelers: Jake Butt, TE, Michigan. He surprised many by returning to school despite an anemic tight end class, but Butt’s patience is rewarded by landing with a Pittsburgh team that desperately needs a playmaking tight end who can also really block.

30. Green Bay Packers: Travin Dural, WR, LSU. If he’s recovered from his torn hamstring, Dural has the potential to rocket up draft rankings with his size, speed and great catch radius. He would give Aaron Rodgers a great weapon on the outside to help balance the offense.

31. Seattle Seahawks: Zach Banner, OT, USC. A true behemoth who projects as a right tackle only, Banner has dabbled with declaring for the draft before. Lincoln Kennedy’s son will have to show better agility to achieve this first-round status, but his size and strength definitely pique NFL interest.

32. New England Patriots: Dawuane Smoot, Edge, Illinois. Smoot doesn’t have the notoriety as a top pass rusher…yet. Strong play (1 sack, 1.5 TFL, FF) against his hometown Ohio State demonstrates his potential, and his 6’3” frame is ideal to play the Rob Ninkovich role with New England.