The first 31 picks are in the books as the 2016 NFL Draft moves onto the second and third days. Thursday night was full of many surprises and eyebrow-raising picks.

Thumbs Up

To Ohio State. The Buckeyes churned out five first-round picks. Three of those were top-10 selections in Joey Bosa (3), Ezekiel Elliott (4) and Eli Apple (10). Taylor Decker came off the board at 16 and Darron Lee at 20.

Five top 20 overall picks is an amazing feat for Urban Meyer and the football factory he’s assembled in Columbus. Only the legendary Miami Hurricanes team that produced six first-rounders has more.

Here’s the scary part: as many as six more Buckeyes could come off the board Friday night. Vonn Bell, Michael Thomas and Braxton Miller are surefire Day Two picks. Joshua Perry, Adolphus Washington, Nick Vannett, Tyvis Powell and Cardale Jones are in play from the third thru fourth rounds.

To Jack Conklin and Laquon Treadwell. Two players I criticized a lot harder than most analysts both wound up going to perhaps the best possible landing spots.

For Conklin, I love the fit in Tennessee. While I still think they took him way too high, he gets a couple of great advantages with the Titans. First, he gets to play right tackle with Taylor Lewan on the other side. That plays to the Michigan State product’s strengths, namely run blocking and handling power rushers on the edge. He’s NFL-ready at both of those, arguably best in class at each amongst tackles. Second, Marcus Mariota is a quarterback who can escape pressure but also one who tends to get the ball out quickly. He can help cover up Conklin’s balance and technique issues in handling speed off the edge.

Treadwell winds up in Minnesota, a great schematic fit. Teddy Bridgewater likes to throw the intermediate routes like hitches and curls. That’s where Treadwell wins with his size and precise footwork on his routes. He’s not a downfield threat, and the Vikings won’t ask him to be one. Going in the 20s also lowers the bar of expectation on a player who should be a good-not-great receiver. Had he gone to places like New Orleans or Detroit, fans would have expected Treadwell to be the dynamic top dog in the receiving corps. He’s not ever going to be that guy. In Minnesota, he doesn’t have to be.

Thumbs Down

To the stacked defensive tackle crop. The strength of this class is at defensive tackle. That mantra has come from everywhere, including my own lips. As many as ten different defensive tackles were mentioned as legit first-round talents.

In the end, just four came off the board. Sheldon Rankins, Kenny Clark, Robert Nkemdiche and Vernon Butler heard their names called. So many talented prospects did not.

  • Jarran Reed
  • Andrew Billings
  • A’Shawn Robinson
  • Chris Jones
  • Jonathan Bullard

All of those guys were viable first-round talents. So were pass rushers Kevin Dodd, Noah Spence and Emmanuel Ogbah, all players consistently mocked in the first 45 picks.

The draft path diverged from the run on defensive linemen, at least on Thursday night. As a result, a lot of needy teams in the middle of the second round should be rewarded with guys who can start right away. And it further pushes down the tier expected to come off behind those guys, players like Hassan Ridgeway, Javon Hargrave and Austin Johnson.

To players who fell due to injury. This is not an angry thumb whatsoever, because it’s truly sad to watch a young man’s dreams of strutting onto the stage and donning the hat in the first round shattered because of health issues.

That happened to several players, none more prominent than Myles Jack. The UCLA linebacker/safety/corner/running back with the world-class workout numbers was a surefire top 10 pick if not for a balky knee. His medical recheck a couple of weeks ago did not go well at all, leading several teams to remove him completely from their boards. Even Jack himself admitted this week he probably needs microfracture surgery, the same procedure which reduced Jadeveon Clowney to being merely a good player when he’s even on the field for the Texans. Jack could be sitting tonight a lot longer than folks expect, too.  

One of my personal favorites in this draft, Reggie Ragland, also fell in part because of late news that he suffers from an enlarged aorta. It sounds worse than it is but the malady is still no small detail. It’s not something easily put out of mind for Ragland himself, either. I suffered from a more serious heart ailment and knew about it for years before finally having surgery last June. Even though I still competed at a high level in volleyball and ran 5K and warrior courses regularly with no real effects, my heart was always in the back of my mind. I hope Ragland can overcome because he’s a heck of a talent.

Thumbs Twiddling

To the fast-rising defensive backs. Eli Apple was the first corner off the board, to the New York Giants at No. 10 overall. Oakland snagged Karl Joseph at 14. Keanu Neal sprung to the 17th pick and the Atlanta Falcons. Pittsburgh tabbed Artie Burns at No. 25.

A few mock drafts and analysts had Apple tabbed as a potential first-rounder ever since the Combine, where his workout elevated his profile. I once had him slotted at 14 to Oakland myself, though I wound up leaving Apple just out of the first round in my final mock draft. Tenth overall is a real surprise, however.

Joseph had a sterling reputation as a do-it-all safety but faced two legitimate knocks: he’s short (5’9”) even for a shorter safety, and he missed most of last season with a knee injury. His game said first round but the variables were thought to keep him lower.

Neal rocketed out of the Florida swamplands and into the middle of the first round. Not one mock draft written before March ever had Neal as a top 50 pick. Even after a buzz-worthy Combine, the general consensus was Neal was going to be in the late 2nd/mid 3rd round. It was just in the last two weeks where the info started leaking that some teams considered the body-rocking Gators safety as a first-rounder.

Burns was often lumped in the second round, often begrudgingly. The near-universal tagline was “has impressive physical potential but needs to learn to play better”. Those words are still true. The Steelers were strongly linked to several defensive backs, including Houston CB William Jackson and even Keanu Neal. But taking the unrefined Burns still surprised just about everyone.

These players will all be judged through the prism of what the other players who were more highly-touted and available do. For Apple, there is intense pressure to prove the Giants made the right decision in taking him over Vernon Hargreaves, Neal’s Gator mate who was a top 10 fixture since last May.

Neal is the stunner for me. I understand the allure of the highlight-reel hits. He’s often great against the run and at closing quickly on plays in front of him in coverage. He also missed an inordinate amount of tackles and sorely lacks eye discipline and depth in those coverage situations. I graded him in the fifth round.

This reminds me quite a bit of Oakland taking Mike Mitchell, an eerily similar player, a few years back. If Neal isn’t a lot better than Mitchell, who struggled early before finding his stride on his third team in as many years, Falcons fans will wonder why their team locked onto him instead of waiting until Friday safeties like Vonn Bell or Su’a Cravens and skipping over their obvious pass-rushing needs.

 

Thumb Sucking

To “#sources” guy. Tuesday morning, national pundits on ESPN, CBS and NFL Network all reported with brimming confidence that the San Diego Chargers were taking DeForest Buckner. On Wednesday that tide turned to Jalen Ramsey with some sources, while others were spouting “sources” telling them the team was not considering Joey Bosa. On Thursday, highly-paid draft analysts at every major source swaggered to social media and proclaimed Ronnie Stanley was an absolute lock to go to the Chargers at No. 3. #sources!

Of course the Chargers selected Bosa, a player I watched the so-called “elite level” insiders across the draft media were adamant was dropping and surely not a consideration at No. 3 anymore. How dare we even bring up the proposition!

Part of this job is filtering the information we are given and trying to ascertain the motivation behind why we are getting such information. That filter was clearly missing for a lot of folks who should know a lot better. The sanctimoniousness and stridence of their assertions that they were 100% right with the ever-changing information is nothing short of disgusting.

Y’all got played. Badly. And the condescending nature with which you summarily dismissed anyone who dared question your strategically planted nuggets is an ostrich egg to the face. Hopefully you figure out how to use the tool that you became can fix the broken filter you are supposed to have in these situations.