Last Week: 10-6, not a bad tally for such an unpredictable slate. The season forecast wound up 156-100 straight up.

There are just four games on the schedule, two each on Saturday and Sunday. In an unusual twist, both games from the same conference are on the same day, something that has not happened in the modern Wild Card era.

Saturday Games

- Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

Kansas City beat Houston way back in Week 1. The teams then both lurched to 2-5 records before turning things around.

The Texans wound up 9-7, icing the AFC South with a combination of a very tough defense and opportunistic offense to pound inferior foes down the stretch. Kansas City has not lost since starting 1-5, with QB Alex Smith taking more chances and a fearsome pass defense shutting down opponents.

The Chiefs are in the midst of one of the longest postseason losing streaks in NFL history, having dropped their last six playoff games. They haven’t won since the AFC Divisional Round back in 1993, a game where Joe Montana rallied the Chiefs for three fourth-quarter TDs to shock the Houston Oilers in the Astrodome 28-20.

I can see this score being quite similar. Houston won three in a row but the teams they beat were Indianapolis, Tennessee and Jacksonville. The last two teams they played who were any good at all, New England and Buffalo, both beat them. Losing stud left tackle Duane Brown, one of the best in the game, really hurts the Texans offense.

If they still had Arian Foster running the rock, I might favor the home team. But Alfred Blue, while proving effective at times, just doesn’t inspire confidence. The Chiefs pass defense will try and smother Nuk Hopkins, forcing Brian Hoyer or his replacement once he’s knocked out with yet another malady to try and beat them by throwing to Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington. Both of them have lingering issues which figure to slow them up.

Then again, when last we saw the Chiefs in the playoffs they raced out to a big early lead and choked like dying dogs to Andrew Luck and the Colts. I do worry the 10-game win streak is a bubble ready to burst. But the Chiefs just look like the better, more complete team with more paths to victory.

Kansas City 27, Houston 24 

- Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

This could have been so much more interesting of a game, but injuries have really put a damper on the matchup.

Cincinnati will stick with backup QB A.J. McCarron, as Andy Dalton’s broken thumb just isn’t ready yet. Pittsburgh is down to third-string RBs Fitz Touissant and Jordan Todman after DeAngelo Williams joined LeVeon Bell on the sidelines with an ankle injury that will keep him out.

McCarron is the key. Despite many openly wishing him to fail thanks to his Alabama lineage or his spectacularly awful chest tattoo or impossibly good-looking wife, McCarron has been decent in relief of Dalton. He’s not making the big mistakes, and that’s exactly what has plagued the Bengals in all their recent playoff trips before last year’s loss to Indianapolis, where the defense was the problem.

If the young QB is going to break the cycle of playoff futility, he will need to hit some of the throws he’s just missed. In watching the last three games, McCarron missed some reads and was late to identify and deliver on others. Leaving points on the board against San Francisco and Baltimore in the regular season is one thing. Not capitalizing on opportunities against Pittsburgh’s vulnerable defense will equal yet another quick postseason exit.

Of course Pittsburgh’s offense is no sure thing either. The running back issues could force Ben Roethlisberger to operate one-dimensionally, and the Bengals defense would love nothing more than that. It might seem counterintuitive to want Big Ben to throw the ball to Antonio Brown, the league’s most dangerous downfield playmaker, but if there is no threat of the run the Bengals can batten down those hatches.

Of course playoff games typically come down to which team has the better, hotter QB. And that is Pittsburgh, even if No. 2 WR Martavis Bryant remains M.I.A. and they can’t run the ball.

Still, this is the best of the Bengals recent spate of playoff teams. Unfortunately, without Dalton at the helm they fall back a peg. Maybe McCarron can do for Cincinnati what TJ Yates once did to them, breaking Houston’s playoff seal as a backup QB pressed into playoff duty. It could happen, and I’ll even admit to rooting for it to happen (nothing against Pittsburgh at all, I just like the “Cincy overcomes” story line).

Steelers 33, Bengals 31

Sunday Games

- Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings

For those of us of a certain age, outdoor playoff football in Minnesota is making a very welcome return. And the weather appears to be a frigid factor in this one, with high temps forecast in the single digits.

There is real significance to the cold…

 

Fortunately for the Seahawks, they are one of the hottest teams in the NFL down the stretch. Russell Wilson’s superlative play took another step forward, as did the emergence of Doug Baldwin at wideout. Since their bye in Week 9, Baldwin has posted 47 catches for 729 yards and 12 TDs in seven games.

That spike in the passing offense has helped mitigate a series of injuries at running back. Now they get Marshawn Lynch back, five years after his famous “Beast Mode” run through the entire New Orleans defense. His punishing style is ideal for cold weather.

This is also a rematch game, and Seattle has to feel good about how that first meeting went. Back in Week 13, Seattle marched into this very stadium and annihilated the Vikings 38-7. Minnesota’s touchdown in that game came on a Cordarrelle Patterson kick return as the Vikings managed just 9 first downs.

And there is the crux of the problem for Minnesota. I do think their defense will perform much better this time around. I’m not sure the Vikings offense will improve enough to close the rather significant gap. Giving Adrian Peterson more than 8 carries (18 yards) can only help, but Seattle’s run D has allowed less than 60 yards in five of the last eight games.

More to the point, I just don’t see Teddy Bridgewater beating this Seattle defense, or outdueling Russell Wilson. I’m firmly in show me don’t tell me mode with Teddy right now.

Seahawks 22, Vikings 17

- Green Bay Packers at Washington

The last game of the weekend is the clearest cut forecast. If the Washington team from the last month and the Green Bay team from the same period show up at FedEx Field, the home team is winning in a blowout.

I’ve watched every Green Bay game over the last eight weeks, and right now they are simply not a good football team. Their defense is playing pretty well, but their offensive skill position talent is struggling. Their injury-plagued offensive line might be the worst in football, though getting David Bakhtiari back at left tackle can only help. He’s currently questionable, but if he can even try to go it helps restore some order to a jumbled line where left guard Josh Sitton--far and away the team’s best OL--had to play out of position.

Washington’s underrated defense is still an issue even with a healthy Packers OL. Chris Baker, Jason Hatcher and a deep front has exposed better lines than the one they’re facing this week. Moreover, the biggest are of vulnerability in the Washington defense is over the middle and down the deep seams. Guess where Green Bay really struggles to attack with pedestrian TEs, no wideouts who can get any sort of separation and with little time for more intricate passing plays to develop?

This is a bad matchup for the Packers. If they are going to win, it will be on the backs of their defense and special teams. Their relative playoff experience certainly gives them an edge, too. This will be Kirk Cousins’ first playoff game, and his tendency to have clunkers isn’t quite buried yet despite a fantastic finish to his season. The team scored 35, 38 and 34 points in the final three weeks with Cousins throwing 11 TDs and zero INTs. In seven of his last eight games, Cousins has topped 101 in QB Rating. By way of comparison, Rodgers hasn’t topped 100 since October 18th.

As long as the trains are on time, Washington wins comfortably. If the Packers can disrupt things with something like a pick-six or a special teams score or a couple of advantageous officiating calls--which directly led to a playoff win against a better team last year--then I can see Green Bay’s experience and guile taking charge.

Washington 28, Green Bay 21