Last week: 7-9, a sub-.500 week puts the season forecast at 123-85.

Thursday Night

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams (-1): The NFL is forcing upon us the hideous “Color Rush” uniforms to try and spice up what is otherwise a yawner of a game.

 

On the sole basis of looking less hideous, the Buccaneers win.

Buccaneers 16, Rams 14

Saturday Night

- New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys (+2.5): On a week where they’re set to face Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker and a quietly hot Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Cowboys saw fit to cut nickel CB Tylor Patmon. I don’t get it either. It’s almost as if Dallas owner Jerry Jones has Fitzpatrick and Decker in his fantasy football playoffs and is looking for the win.

Aside from that, New York’s defense is well-suited to snuff out a Dallas offense which has managed 16, 14 and 11 first downs in the last three weeks while turning the ball over seven times. If the Jets can jump out to a quick couple of scores, this one could be very ugly. The Cowboys can hang around if Darren McFadden runs the ball well and the defense can stymie Fitzpatrick early. Hanging is different than winning, however.

Jets 27, Cowboys 10

Sunday Best

- Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5): The sheen is off Brock Osweiler, and the young Denver QB now needs to adjust to the defensive adjustments which have slowed his progress--and the Denver offense--back to Earth. Specifically, Osweiler has struggled in the red zone. Pittsburgh’s defense gives up a lot of yards but they’ve been pretty solid in the red zone all year (7th in TD percentage).

I’m quite interested in the opposite battle, the high-octane Pittsburgh offense against a stodgy Denver defense. In theory, the Broncos strong cover CBs in Aqib Talib and Chris Harris match up as well as anyone can against Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and the Pittsburgh aerial assault. The Denver front will be a real challenge for the Steelers OL, too.

The key here is turnovers and special teams. I’ll trust Ben Roethlisberger and the home field advantage over Osweiler and a kicker who has never tested the tricky Heinz Field conditions before in a game that I strongly believe will be decided by less than the touchdown spread.

Steelers 19, Broncos 17 

- Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5): Both these teams could start the QBs who would have been third string in September in a game that probably decides the AFC South division title. Yes folks, it’s that bad. Houston’s T.J. Yates has actually won a playoff game and authored a win over the Bengals (the team he also bested for Houston’s inaugural playoff victory) earlier this season. Charlie Whitehurst, the Colts replacement killer, was busy doing other things… 

Despite the awesomeness of Whitehurst’s enviable lifestyle choices, he’s just not a very good quarterback.

Texans 28, Colts 12

- Carolina Panthers at New York Giants (+5.5): The Giants have been were undefeated teams go to die. Over the years they have proven lethal to foes with 10+ wins and no losses. Ask Patriots fans. However, the matchups in this one make it seem like an even longer shot.

The last meeting between these two came in 2013. Carolina won 38-0. Last week Carolina beat Atlanta 38-0. It’s a short work week for the Giants, coming off a win on Monday Night in Miami. The Panthers D is one of the most efficient and consistently effective in the league. They can win up the gut. They can win from the edges. They can win in the back seven. They will win in New York.

Panthers 26, Giants 20

Sunday Rest

- Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5): Two teams traveling in opposite directions meet in Jacksonville. The 5-8 Jaguars have legit playoff aspirations and have a hot QB despite what the folks at Pro Football Focus and ESPN’s QBR concoction will tell you. The Falcons have gone from 5-0 to 6-7 and don’t match up well with said Jaguars offense. Good litmus test for Jacksonville’s progress. You are forgiven for not trusting them just yet. I can’t quite make that leap myself but I’m 70% confident victory will rain on the home team.

Jaguars 31, Falcons 24 

- Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks (-14.5): No QB is playing better the last few weeks than Russell Wilson. His play has struck my poetic bone…

He’s on top of his game and proving he can win in the pocket, outside the pocket, with Doug Baldwin or Tyler Lockett

MVP chants will rain down, the 12th man will shout, Johnny Football might want to sit this one out

Cliff Avril, Bobby Wagner and Michael Bennett, tougher of a defense than an obstinate Senate

Wilson and friends keep the wins flowing, Cleveland heads into the game knowing

They’re outcoached, outmatched, completely overwhelmed

This time next year they’ll be differently helmed

Seahawks 35, Browns 10 

- Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5): The plethora of defensive injuries for Minnesota gives Jay Cutler and the inconsistent Chicago offense a real chance here. I’d feel a lot better about those chances if they hadn’t lost three of four and haven’t topped 200 yards of offense in the first half of a game in well over a month. Minnesota’s passing offense is not equipped to come back on anyone, but as long as the defense holds tough early they can hammer Adrian Peterson against the 30th-ranked run defense in terms of yards per carry. I’d also feel better about Chicago if kicker Robbie Gould wasn’t mired in a horrible slump.

Vikings 24, Bears 20

- Buffalo Bills at Washington (+1): You’re giving Washington a point at home when they’re the definitively better team to begin with?!? Yes, please.

Ethnic Slurs 29, Bills 21

- Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-14.5): New England just whipped a significantly better Houston team than Tennessee is, one which matches up with the Patriots relative weaknesses better than Tennessee does to boot. Unless they’re struck with a rash of food poisoning or complete apathy, this is a rout.

Patriots 33, Titans 17

- Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (+7.5): The Chiefs have won seven in a row with a fine blend of offensive efficiency, more playmaking from Alex Smith at quarterback, and a skilled and tenacious defense that now ranks among the league’s best. Baltimore counters with Jimmy Clausen and a bunch of guys you’ve never heard of. They’re desperate enough to bring in noted pariah Ryan Mallett. Don’t overthink this one…

Chiefs 30, Ravens 6 

- Green Bay Packers at Oakland Raiders (+3.5): Oakland is noted for having fans show up in full costume regalia at the Black Hole. One such hedonistic heathen dons Darth Vader gear. As you might have heard, Star Wars is opening this weekend. It’s a sign! It’s a trap for Green Bay! I’m not betting against Darth Raider with this majestic confluence of time and opportunity. There’s also no way the Packers OL can slow down Khalil Mack, not even with The Force.

Raiders 20, Packers 17

- Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers (+4.5): A.J. McCarron gets his shot at the same 49ers defense that showed serious vulnerability against Johnny Football and the moribund Browns last week. McCarron might not have TD reception leader Tyler Eifert, as the tight end is in the concussion protocol and did not practice on Wednesday.

This is a game where the Cincinnati defense needs to step up and carry the day. They certainly have that ability, and the 49ers offensive line is in shambles. They gave up 9 sacks last week to Cleveland and are shuffling bodies around with Geno Atkins and a diverse, deep Bengals pass rush coming to town. I like the concept of the Cincinnati team rallying around McCarron… for this one week anyway.

Bengals 30, 49ers 14

- Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-1.5): The Dolphins have issues in the secondary, both injury and talent. That’s pretty much the only kind of team the Chargers really have a chance against. This is almost certainly the last game in San Diego for the Chargers, and I think that inspires one last death-gasp victory from Philip Rivers & Co.

Chargers 20, Dolphins 17

- Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5): I never know what to expect from Philly. Their highs are towering, their lows are abysmal. I do know what to expect from Arizona, who get the benefit of the mini-bye coming off the Thursday night game. Nobody blitzes more than the Cardinals, and few QBs are as bad against the blitz as Eagles starter Sam Bradford. If the Eagles play their “A” game at home in primetime, they can hang tough. But I think the bookies are dead on with the number here.

Cardinals 27, Eagles 23

Monday Night

- Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-2.5): Last week the Lions found it prudent to throw the ball to T.J. Jones eight times and target Calvin Johnson just four. One of two things will happen in one of the weakest MNF matchups in recent times: either Matthew Stafford will go out of his way to overcompensate and feed Megatron the ball against a truly awful Saints defense, or the Lions will once again outsmart themselves and do things like ignoring Johnson, running scatback Ameer Abdullah between the tackles and plodding sledgehammer back Joique Bell on toss sweeps and screens, and not anticipate Drew Brees trying to throw the ball as they did not expect the Rams to run or the Packers to try a Hail Mary. Heck yeah I’m bitter at how this season of immense promise in Detroit has devolved into 4-9!

Saints 24, Lions 21