$.01--The Pittsburgh Steelers blew out the Cincinnati Bengals 33-20, an outcome which tightens both the AFC North race and the overall conference playoff picture. But a Bengals injury is far more important than this one home loss.

Quarterback Andy Dalton left the game in the first quarter on this play (thanks NFL.com)

 

X-rays confirmed Dalton in fact broke his right thumb. He’s out for at least a couple of weeks, perhaps as long as Wild Card weekend if the Bengals cannot hold onto one of the top two playoff seeds.

As Paul Dehner of the Cincinnati Enquirer notes,

Dalton led the NFL in passer rating (107.4) entering the game and lived on the outskirts of league MVP conversation.

He held career highs in completion percentage (66.1), touchdown percentage, interception percentage and yards per attempt. He completed 255 of 386 passes for 3,250 yards with 25 touchdowns against seven interceptions.

It’s a huge loss, no question. A.J. McCarron, he of the gaudy chest tattoo and knockout girlfriend (now wife), takes over at the controls of a 10-3 team still in the mix for the No. 1 seed. He wasn’t terrible against the Steelers, other than a bad pick-six which William Gay might still be celebrating. He’s inexperienced and it showed on some pass rush reads, but McCarron did show some zip on throws and solid command of the offense. He was 22-for-32 for 280 yards, with 2 TDs and 2 INTs. He had a couple of very accurate longer strikes that bodes well for the future. That’s not awful for a greenhorn backup entering a game against a playoff-caliber rival and playing from behind all day.

The Bengals are 10-3 with a 2-game lead in the AFC North over the Steelers, who are getting hot at the right time in winning four out of five. Cincinnati travels to San Francisco, where they will be favored even with McCarron at the helm. A trip to Denver, which unexpectedly fell to 10-3 as well with a loss to Oakland, will almost certainly decide which gets a first-round bye. A winnable game at home against the terrible Ravens wraps the season. McCarron might have played extensively in that one regardless.

The replacement QB certainly does not lack confidence.  As he noted in his postgame press conference, “Tom Brady was in the same situation”. We’ll see on McCarron, but a well-balanced team like the Bengals cannot be tossed aside. As long as tight end Tyler Eifert, who left this game with a concussion, can return the offense should be okay. Should be. 

$.02--The New England Patriots ascended back to the top of the AFC standings with a commanding victory in Houston on Sunday Night Football. Despite myriad injuries, Tom Brady & Co. blew away the host Texans 27-6.

One of the biggest factors was the return of Rob Gronkowski, the biggest playmaker for the New England offense. He scored a touchdown and provided a real lift with four catches in his return from a knee injury two weeks ago that left him writhing on the ground as if he’d stepped on a land mine.

Yet what should scare the rest of the AFC is the tour de force performance by the Patriots defense. My goodness they were great!

Granted the Houston offense is not very good. Other than Nuk Hopkins they really don’t have any viable threats, and Brian Hoyer is an average quarterback at his best. Sunday night, Hoyer was not at his best and the New England D played a huge role in that.

The Patriots marched through the Houston offensive line like a lawn tractor plowing over a field of limp dandelions. Hoyer was repeatedly bowled under, sacked five times but hit at least 10 other times. One sack resulted in a wild fumble. He eventually left the game with concussion symptoms after being blasted into the ground by an untouched pass rusher.

When the Pats D is swarming like this, they’re almost impossible to beat. Jamie Collins was everywhere. Jabaal Sheard looked like a dominant edge rusher. Jerod Mayo was always in the right place, as was Patrick Chung for perhaps the first time in his NFL career. The corners played well, not allowing Hopkins freedom other than one too-late deep catch. Even the New England special teams were great, save a muffed punt by former Texan Keshawn Martin.

The win clinched a playoff berth for the Patriots, and they’re the only AFC team with 11 wins. With Denver and Cincinnati both losing and facing QB issues, there is no question the AFC road goes through Foxboro.

Houston blew a chance to really stake a claim to the AFC South. Now they take a two-game losing streak to Indianapolis with the division lead squarely on the line. Had they won here, under the bright lights and with the red jerseys blazing, they could have given themselves a buffer heading into that game. Instead, the 6-7 Texans now have to worry about the 5-8 Jaguars too. At least the Houston pass rush looked great in its own right, notably a couple of excellent plays from Jadeveon Clowney. They’re still the best team in the AFC South but this game is a disheartening reality check that they will be one-and-done even if they make the playoffs.

$.03--Let the speculation about a coaching change in Indianapolis hit fever pitch. The Jacksonville Jaguars eviscerated the Colts like the dinosaur treats the bait goat at the beginning of Jurassic Park, 51-16.

 

While there is the obvious built-in excuse of no Andrew Luck, Pagano’s Colts have to show more life than this. Indy entered the game tied for first in the AFC South with a chance to wipe out the Jaguars. Instead, Gus Bradley’s Jags faced little resistance. Even though Blake Bortles fumbled three times (losing two) and the Jaguars were awful on third downs (2-for-9), the game was still a runaway. It got bad enough that the Colts inserted Charlie Whitehurst into the game as a white flag at quarterback.

There has been loads of tension in Indy all season between Pagano and GM Ryan Grigson, who should be on the way out as well. Owner Jim Irsay is not noted for being overly patient, and in this case his impetuosity is well-placed. Despite clinging to fairly realistic playoff aspirations in the lousy AFC South, his Colts are not a good football team. And that’s true even with Luck, who appears to have plateaued. This team needs loads of help on both lines, a youthful RB, at least one pass rusher and one inside backer, a safety, and both a new backup QB and a kicker under the age of 40.

It is still an attractive job because of Luck and also the eminent win-ability of the lousy division. And that will bring out the top candidates for both GM and Head Coach. Heck, Nick Saban’s name is already being tossed around. I’ve heard thru the grapevine Saban’s people have already reached out to see if there is NFL interest in his return. David Shaw from Stanford and Art Briles from Baylor are two other names from the college ranks who will get some run. At this point nobody can know how it plays out, but it’s pretty apparent Chuck Pagano is not part of the future in Indianapolis.

The Jaguars deserve more than passing mention here. This was an important win for Bradley, a coach whose seat isn’t cold. After close losses to inferior teams in San Diego and Tennessee, this win proves his Jags are still playing hard and have talent. Bortles is growing into a solid, albeit inconsistent, all-around quarterback and he has some dynamic weapons in Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Julius Thomas and even Denard Robinson. It’s not out of the question they enter the Week 17 game in Houston at 7-8 and with a chance to play their win into a division title. That will require beating Atlanta and New Orleans, two of the worst defenses in the league. If they play as inspired as they did versus Indianapolis, they’ll get it done.

$.04--One of the more interesting parts of the football social media community is the almost comical polarization of opinions surrounding Minnesota Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater. Going back to his Louisville days and leading into the 2014 NFL Draft, there was very little middle ground on Teddy.

In Thursday night’s 23-20 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, both sides found reasons to bolster their audacious arguments.

Bridgewater came out smoking, completing 10 of his first 11 and looking in complete control of both his offense and the talented Arizona defense. Teddy responded nicely to a Jarius Wright red zone fumble by leading the Vikings to a 10-play scoring drive to end the first half, tying the game at 10. His backers were practically dislocating their shoulders patting themselves on the back at his strong first half.

He cooled in the second half, as the Arizona defense made adjustments. Still, Bridgewater had a chance to win the game after leading a game-tying touchdown drive. With the ball in his hands down 3 with under 2 minutes to go, he drove Minnesota to the fringe of field goal range. Then a bad decision by Head Coach Mike Zimmer led to a worse decision by Bridgewater. Instead of playing it safe or even kicking the field goal, Zimmer dialed up a pass play with no real purpose; no receivers went to the end zone and there were no sideline options for a quick completion and stopping the clock out of bounds. Bridgewater never got a chance, as Dwight Freeney absolutely destroyed left tackle Matt Kalil with an inside spin and swatted the ball out of Teddy’s arm for a game-sealing strip sack.

The Teddy haters emerged with virulence. Never mind the game was lost on a terrible coaching decision and an inept left tackle getting roasted by a Hall of Fame pass rusher. Everything wrong with the Vikings is Teddy’s fault in their eyes.

The final settlement in the Teddy debate won’t come for a few more years. Here’s what we know now: he’s good enough to lead a strong defensive team to 8-5, but not good enough to carry a team with an average defense and stunted running game to wins over better teams. That’s what happened in Arizona, where the Cardinals proved once again they are a legit Super Bowl contender. 

$.05--Carolina remains the only undefeated team, stretching the record to 13-0. That they beat the Atlanta Falcons is not surprising, even though I somehow forecast a Falcons win on the grounds that the most unlikely outcome keeps happening. It’s how easily the Panthers rolled the Falcons.

The final was 38-0 but it felt like more. Carolina so thoroughly dominated the game from the opening drive, an 8-play, 80-yard touchdown romp aided by a reversed call on a fumble. The Panthers scored touchdowns on four of five first-half drives, racking up 342 yards. Atlanta punted four times and took a knee for one play, managing 110 total yards. The game was completely over when the Falcons went 3-and-out with no real sign of life on the opening drive of the 3rd quarter.

This was the kind of dominating victory emblematic of great teams. Carolina never gave Atlanta one iota of hope. The Panthers forced four turnovers, notched five sacks and were able to rest wounded starters Greg Olsen and Jonathan Stewart in the second half. The Panthers clinched one of the top two seeds and a playoff bye, and now they get to wrestle with the debate of resting players or going for the undefeated record.

Atlanta was once 5-0 and looked like a legit playoff team. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones were flying high early on, Devonta Freeman was running to the top of fantasy football charts and the defense was forcing turnovers and performing respectably against the run. None of those September truths are anywhere close to reality in December.

The biggest decline is Ryan, who has been bad enough lately that there is talk of benching him.

 

Mike Freeman of Bleacher Report got this telling quote from a scout:

Matt is lost. He has no confidence. He's telegraphing his throws. He doesn't trust his line. He doesn't trust his wide receivers. I haven't seen a player lose his confidence this fast since Ryan Leaf.

Matty Ice is far from the only reason why a 5-0 team is now 6-7. His offensive line is porous. Nobody other than Jones is ever open. The explosive plays, even by Jones, have dried up like a desert. The pass rush is almost nonexistent. Even the kicking game has declined.

Yet the buck stops with the alleged franchise quarterback. To go back to the above quote, it sounds ridiculous but it’s also easy to see the telltale signs. Matty Ice has melted into a guy who desperately needs time off and a fresh start next year. It’s hard to imagine the Falcons will make a change, even harder to believe they’d acquire someone immediately better than him. But if these same struggles bleed into next year, a lot of folks in Atlanta are going to be looking for new jobs…including Matt Ryan. 

$.06--This week the NFL decided to form a six-person committee to determine what constitutes a catch. With all the controversial officiating decisions, including several which have decided key games, the NFL has decided to try and sort out one of the most contrived, subjective rules in all of sports. It tripped up Jeff Triplette and the Sunday Night Football crew in Houston twice, and both times on replay they appeared to get it wrong.

The (not exactly) blue-ribbon panel includes:

• Overwrought former GM and slow-motion talker Bill Polian

• Recently fired coaches Ken Whisenhunt and Joe Philbin

• Former Lions coach Jim Schwartz, who was infamously victimized twice by wretched application of the catch/no catch rule

• Pedestrian former backup wideout James Thrash, who caught less than half the passes thrown his way in his final four seasons

• Former official Tom Finken, who is involved in the training process.

This is beaurocracy that does our sclerotic federal government proud. Commissioner Roger Goodell, the most authoritarian and empowered leader in pro sports, has all the power to make the decision crystal clear. It’s really not all that complicated, despite what the recent years of “completing the process” and “making a football move” have taught us:

1. Two feet down. A knee or butt counts as a foot.

2. Firm control of the ball. That means it can move but never lose contact with the body.

That’s it. There is no reason for great machinations beyond this. Kids on every playground in America know this is what a catch is. It’s a clear definition in the non-HD, replay-less world of high school and small college ball, too.

The NFL needs to strip away the super-slow-motion replays. It doesn’t take Oliver Stone breaking down the Zapruder film to see if it’s a catch or not. Watch the play at real speed and keep it simple.

$.07--On Friday I published my initial Top 103 prospects for the 2016 NFL Draft. The No. 10 player on that list made the wrong kind of news on Sunday.

Ole Miss defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche found trouble in an Atlanta hotel room. Per the Clarion Ledger,

Ole Miss defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche fell about 15 feet from an Atlanta hotel Saturday night, but the junior was conscious when officers reported to the scene and was in stable condition when taken to a local hospital, according to the Atlanta Police Department.

An APD report added that a small amount of what was suspected to be marijuana was found in a hotel room at the Grand Hyatt Atlanta in Buckhead.

Falling 15 feet from a hotel window with marijuana in the vacated room certainly raises some interesting questions, ones we do not have answers for just yet. Was he alone? Why did he jump out of the window? Was anything else (like a hallucinogen or stimulant) in his system?

The questionable character is a real issue for the highly talented athletic freak, though it’s more of an issue because of his older brother Denzel. The elder is a linebacker for the Rebels who is no stranger to trouble. He is done with football after being hospitalized in intensive care after being “found”. No details have ever been released, but the rampant speculation is an overdose on drugs a lot stronger than marijuana.

There have always been loud rumors that Denzel means trouble for Robert in the NFL. Walter Football noted this recently, saying,

NFL evaluators have major off-the-field issues with Denzel Nkemdiche. Sources say that Nkemdiche will go with his brother Robert to whatever city he lands in the NFL, and they see that as a significant concern toward drafting Robert Nkemdiche high in the first round. They feel that Denzel has a lot of off-the-field problems and is a bad influence.

I’ve heard the same from regional scouts. When that gets paired with Robert’s surprisingly underwhelming collegiate production (7 TFL, 3 sacks in ’15), it makes it even harder to justify a top 10 overall pick to both fans and NFL owners. I penned questions about his ability for Draft Breakdown over the summer, and this doesn’t help. Jumping out of a fourth floor hotel window is not something a normal, rational person does. More digging needs to be done, but if I were doing the Top 103 this coming week Robert Nkemdiche would not be in the top 10 any longer.

$.08--NFL Quickies

--The hottest team in the league is none other than the Kansas City Chiefs. Once 1-5, they now hold a Wild Card spot with a seven-game winning streak. After weeks of scoring 30+ points, they fended off the pesky but talent-starved Chargers 10-3. The schedule (BAL, CLE, OAK) presents them a very strong chance to win out and finish 11-5.

--Coldplay will be the halftime performer at February's Super Bowl. Color me underwhelmed. It’s been my experience that Coldplay fans tend to not like football. Or music. Or breathing. I understand there is a need to try and keep the female and non-football fans engaged, but this is an uninspired choice. What was so bad about Bruno Mars or Katy Perry and the left shark?

--In Detroit’s pathetic loss at St. Louis, Matthew Stafford passed Dan Marino as the fastest player to 25,000 career yards. He did so in 90 games to Marino’s 92, though he did take about 280 more attempts to reach it. What’s interesting is that at that point Marino had 114 INTs, while Stafford sits at 98. Marino’s completion percentage at the time of record was 59.9, Stafford is at 60.3. The Lions QB is also a year and a half younger than Marino was. Fun with numbers and a lack of context…

--Big road win for Washington in Chicago to improve to 6-7 and stay in first place in the NFC East. Kirk Cousins was solid in getting the Skins their first win away from home in well over a year. Bad loss for the Bears, who fall to 5-8 and must have real questions about kicker Robbie Gould. One of the best in the business for years, Gould missed a 50-yarder that would have tied the game and has missed three in the last two games.

--Strong win by the New York Jets in torching Tennessee 30-8. I love how Coach Todd Bowles stepped on the Titans neck early, aggressively going for the quick knockout. “Know your enemy” seems self-evident, but not enough coaches embrace the concept. Bowles did, knowing the young Titans would not have the will or the ability to fight back from a big early deficit. At 8-5 the Jets hold the six seed in the AFC, holding tough over the surging Steelers by winning their third in a row.

--I’m done trying to figure out the Eagles. Get blown out by a bad Detroit team and a fading Buccaneers squad, respond by winning in New England and somehow beating the Buffalo Bills to stay in a first-place tie with Washington in the putrid NFC East.

--Dallas is done. A listless 28-7 loss in Green Bay, fueled in part by at least three Dez Bryant drops, puts the silver stake straight through the heart of the Cowboys faithful who refused to accept the reality the team just isn’t very good. Only San Francisco has a worse point differential in the NFC.

$.09--College/Draft quickies

--Alabama RB Derrick Henry won the Heisman Trophy by a fairly comfortable margin over Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey and Clemson QB Deshaun Watson. Henry won every region but one.

He’s a worthy winner, a great collegiate rusher on a top-ranked team. My personal vote would have gone to McCaffrey, as I talked about last week in this ninth cent.

Here’s the larger point: just because Henry won the Heisman and piled up beau coup numbers in college, it doesn’t make him a great NFL prospect. In my scouting eye, he compares somewhere between Brandon Jacobs and Eddie George, powerful runner who are hard to tackle but tend to not rack up breakout runs. His quick feet for a bigger back give him a chance to be very good, but he’s a big target for the faster/stronger tacklers in the NFL too.

--I only caught part of the Army/Navy game and have no rooting interest for either side. None of my immediate family are veterans except my late paternal grandfather; my closest family ties to any service is the Coast Guard. But it was an entertaining Navy win. The most notable gleaning here is the awesome helmets:

Army had different divisions represented on its helmets based on position group, while Navy did the same with ships. That’s about the coolest thing I’ve seen this year.

--A couple of interesting spins from the CFB coaching carousel…

Former East Carolina coach Ruffin McNeil, who should have kept his gig in Greenville, was hired by new Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall as assistant head coach and LB coach. He’s a very accomplished coach and could only be in Charlottesville for a year or two before getting another head coaching job.

Ohio State hired former Rutgers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Greg Schiano as the new defensive coordinator. This is an interesting move, as Schiano is perhaps the biggest know-it-all in the coaching ranks not named Urban Meyer…who is his new boss. This is either going to be a brilliant coup or the reason the Buckeyes implode. There is no middle ground. It also ensures that just about every draft-eligible Buckeye will leave Columbus on the next plane out. 

$.10--The end of the calendar year means everyone comes out with lists. One which caught my fancy as a music aficionado came from Time magazine. Their music editorial staff selected the top 10 songs and albums of the year…

…except every song was from one narrow genre, urban R&B. No rock, no country, no hip-hop unless you count something called Drake. I have heard of Drake, though I never heard his represented song. The only two songs I had ever heard were from Adele (the only nod to an actual artist) and The Weeknd, and I do happen to like both. Tame Impala? Christine and the Queens? My wife, a disposable pop music junkie, had no idea who either was.

Since the hipster wannabe folks at Time can put out such a narrow list, I’ll offer my own. This is my music. Turn up the speakers to 11, raise a fist in the air and enjoy! The links are to Spotify.

10. Elan, by Nightwish. Airy folk metal from Finland’s top female-fronted band, and this offering from new vocalist Floor Jansen proves the latest incarnation should have real legs.

9. Fight Song, by Rachel Platten. Surprise! It’s total pop music but I like the lyrics and it’s well-produced. The burly country-rock dude on America’s Got Talent killed with it, too. Great song.

8. Silence in the Snow, by Trivium. A band I’m always hot/cold with struck fire on the title track from their strong ’15 album. I love the diction in Matt Heafy’s deep singing.

7. Can’t Feel My Face, by The Weeknd. He stole the chorus, bass line and even the sing-songy melody from 90s Canadian boy band SoulDecision. But I liked SoulDecision, and this tune plays all the time at my gym and I catch myself grooving every time.

6. When the River Runs Deep, by Iron Maiden. Bruce Dickinson is back, and this track from Book of Souls shows he can still sound the air raid siren with the best scream in rock history.

5. Footsteps, by Pop Evil. They’re local (Grand Rapids) guys gone big, and they did it with a unique sound that blends hard rock, country-pop, and garage rock. This one has already been co-opted in a few advertising campaigns.

4. You Want a Battle (Here’s a War), by Bullet for My Valentine. This deserves to a be sports anthem. BFMV is a staple of my workout mix and this one fit right in.

3. The Coma Machine, by Between the Buried and Me. Prog metal at its finest. Time changes, interludes of grrr-singing, a catchy piano overlay and the glue to a wonderful concept album from a polarizing reinvention from the North Carolina band. Saw this in concert in September and it was even better live.

2. Island, by Coheed and Cambria. Go ahead, try and not feel happy when you hear the 1:20 of this song. I dare you. The first non-concept album from Claudio Sanchez & Co. is poppier than expected but that’s not necessarily a bad thing to this avowed Child of the Fence.

1. Cirice, by Ghost. Can you hear the rumble? The over-the-top Satanic and death metal imagery belies a band that draws more on Deep Purple, Tool and even the Foo Fighters. Take note of the exquisite bass in this absolute masterpiece. This is as close to a perfect song for me as it gets. The entire album is handily the choice for year-end honors.