RealGM Analysis
Last Week: 8-8, not bad after missing all three Thanksgiving Day games. 108-68 on the season.
Thursday Night
- Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+3.5): There are two ways of looking at this game. The first is the obvious angle, the story of the present. Detroit has won three in a row, including a win in Green Bay for the first time since 1991. Meanwhile, the Packers have lost four of five and have not looked anything close to the Super Bowl contender they were presumed to be.
If the Lions of the last month play the Packers of the last month, Detroit wins. Handily. And the Lions have handled the Packers in Ford Field pretty convincingly in recent times, winning the last two games by a combined 59-17 margin.
The converse viewpoint says the Packers are overdue for a rebound to relative greatness and the Lions are due for a heat check of reality. At some point Davante Adams will actually catch a pass, Aaron Rodgers will prove he’s not the 31st most accurate QB (his rank the last four weeks), the pass rush will impact the game and all will go back to being right in Cheesehead nation. Detroit will realize it’s 4-7, still has big holes on the offensive line, allow too many completions (68%, 30th in the league but 13th over the last four weeks) and remain saddled with a coach in Jim Caldwell who fosters too many gaffes.
The Lions fan in me wants to believe in the former but knows the latter is the fate we have chosen. Detroit should win 30-16.
Packers 27, Lions 17
Sunday Games
- Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills (-2.5): Buffalo aims to keep its fledgling playoff hopes alive, while the Texans are fixin' to remain in first place in the AFC South and put some distance between them and the tier of teams chasing them in the potential Wild Card race.
The Bills finally return home after three straight road games, and I like the home cooking. Houston has won four in a row, but three of those were at home and the offense didn’t exactly light it up in any of them. The Texans D is legit, and I pray for Tyrod Taylor with JJ Watt chasing after him. Still, I think the Bills reward the patience of the home fans and make the AFC playoff picture even more jumbled.
Bills 22, Texans 20
- Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5): One of the many reasons for Atlanta’s fall from 5-0 to 6-5 is the decline in turnover margin. The Falcons turned the ball over just twice in the first four games, while taking the ball away eight times. In the last four games, all losses, the margin has swung to -5. One of those came at home in a loss to Tampa Bay where the Buccaneers created four turnovers and didn’t allow any.
That game is a good case study in the importance of ball security. Atlanta set season highs in first downs (28) and offensive yardage (496) in that game. They ran for over 100 and passed for over 300 for the only time this season. Three of the turnovers came in Tampa Bay territory, one in the red zone. Three of the Bucs five scores, including both touchdowns, came off the takeaways.
I like the Falcons to bounce back here, even on the road. They had a great plan of attack against the Bucs the first time around, a plan thwarted by flippant ball skills. The Bucs have not looked good on offense other than a rout of defenseless Philadelphia, scoring 12, 10 and 18 in the other three games the last month. Matt Ryan’s slump will continue somewhat, and he’ll give the ball back to Tampa at least twice. But he’ll put up enough points to overcome it this week.
Falcons 27, Buccaneers 20
- San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (-6.5): The 49ers played quite well last week and still came up empty. I can’t see them mustering that same strong effort and execution in Chicago against the well-coached Bears, who are getting Matt Forte healthy and Alshon Jeffery back in the lineup.
Bears 26, 49ers 18
- Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+6.5): Cleveland announced Austin Davis will start at QB with Josh McCown being lost for the season with a broken collarbone. Johnny Manziel is the backup, and it will take a serious fire for Mike Pettine to break the glass on Johnny Football.
Davis is not awful. During his extended audition (eight starts) with a bad Rams team last year, Davis won three games and showed decent accuracy, field vision and a willingness to attack. Browns fans saw those attributes flash in Monday night’s heartbreaking loss. With the Bengals secondary banged up, he actually gives them a fighting chance. Davis is playing to be the No. 2 next year, or perhaps even the bridge starter until the next first-round pick gets ready.
Bengals 30, Browns 21
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-2.5): Here I was firmly entrenched on the “Jaguars to the playoffs” bandwagon and they go out and lay a giant egg to the lowly Chargers. Now they’re underdogs to Tennessee, which is probably the second-worst team in the league (hello Cleveland!). Of course this can only mean they will defy logic and win. It’s what Jacksonville does.
Jaguars 31, Titans 28
- Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (+5.5): I’m not about to break with what’s working for me. I’ve said all year the Rams will go 6-0 within the NFC West and lose all the rest of their games. While that can’t technically happen (hello Cleveland!), the Rams are indeed 3-0 in the NFC West and that includes a win in Arizona. I can’t tell you how in the world they will beat the Cardinals, who probably should be favored by at least two touchdowns. The stadium will be half-filled--at best--and many will be wearing Cardinals gear. It won’t matter.
Rams 20, Cardinals 17
- Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-4.5): Miami fired Offensive Coordinator Bill Lazor this week. They’re apparently hoping for the same spark Detroit ignited when they fired Joe Lombardi, and they just might get it against a Ravens team which just got lit up on Monday night on the road (hello Cleveland!). The “fire a coach” bounce carries the Dolphins to a victory, and I like Ndamukong Suh to have a big game against Baltimore’s overrated offensive line too.
Dolphins 33, Ravens 21
- Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (even): The Seahawks have two very questionable wins thanks to highly favorable officiating at home, one of which came last week against Pittsburgh. It wasn’t the only reason Seattle won; Pittsburgh couldn’t cover or tackle and Ben Roethlisberger got knocked out.
They’re not apt to get that home cooking in Minnesota. And I think the perception of Seattle being 6-5 is a little too high. This is not the same team which has made the last two Super Bowls. The defense is just not as toothy. That’s a problem with Adrian Peterson running so effectively.
Losing Jimmy Graham won’t help. He was just starting to fit into his role in Darrell Bevell’s offense. I do think the Seahawks have more receiving talent than critics like to acknowledge, but I like Minnesota’s defense at home a little more.
Vikings 17, Seahawks 16
- New York Jets at New York Giants (+1.5): I was initially leaning Giants to begin with when I came across this tidbit…
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Neither Revis nor Calvin Pace here at the start of Jets practice.</p>— Seth Walder (@SethWalderNYDN) <a href="https://twitter.com/SethWalderNYDN/status/672116562619465728">December 2, 2015</a></blockquote>
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No practice on Wednesday generally means either a player will be out or not close to 100 percent on Sunday. The Giants don’t do many things well, but throwing the ball is one of them. Without Revis Island or their best cover safety, the Jets will be lacking in the one area the Giants are well-equipped to exploit. I like the matchup, even if the Jets might have the advantage in a lot of other areas.
Giants 32, Jets 24
- Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+4.5): There are bigger things at play in San Diego than just this game. This certainly appears like it will be one of the last games ever for the San Diego Chargers.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">NFL commissioner Roger Goodell just said it appears San Diego will not be able to present a viable plan in time to keep the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Chargers?src=hash">#Chargers</a>.</p>— UTKevinAcee (@UTKevinAcee) <a href="https://twitter.com/UTKevinAcee/status/672195385981472768">December 2, 2015</a></blockquote>
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Lame duck teams don’t have a very good history, not even when their lame duck status is unknown. With the Broncos rolling with Brock Osweiler operating the offense pretty effectively, it’s hard to see the Chargers keeping it close despite Philip Rivers’ best effort.
Broncos 33, Chargers 22
- Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+2.5): This is a big game in the AFC West pantheon. The Raiders are hungry to prove they belong with the Chiefs in the same breath in the race to finish second behind Denver. Kansas City currently sits a game up, but more importantly they have a much better point differential, +67 to -16. In winning six of seven, the Chiefs have shown great defense, balance, and discipline.
Oakland has dropped three of four, and the 24-21 win over Tennessee last week wasn’t exactly inspiring. Perhaps the Raiders can draw inspiration from the Golden State Warriors, who won again Wednesday night to improve to 20-0. They’ll need whatever they can get to outscore a very fluid KC defense.
Chiefs 20, Raiders 17
- Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (-9.5): In the last two weeks the Eagles have lost 45-17 and 45-14. Those outrageous point totals from Tampa Bay and Detroit are not flukes or accidents. This is as poorly conceived of a defense as you can find without Rob Ryan at the helm.
The Patriots are missing pretty much every person who catches the ball you’ve ever heard of, notably Gronk and Julian Edelman. It won’t matter much. I expect LeGarrette Blount to run for 196 yards and three TDs.
Patriots 41, Eagles 19
- Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (+7.5): I’ve picked against the Panthers enough to know they’re apt to blow the undefeated season against this Saints team. New Orleans will rise up and Drew Brees & Co. will find some success moving the ball. But they’re not stopping Cam Newton.
Panthers 31, Saints 26
- Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5): This forecast is clouded by Ben Roethlisberger’s self-reported concussion last week. If he can’t go, Pittsburgh has no chance, not even at home. None. Nada. Zilch. Zippo.
So this one is a staggered pick:
If Roethlisberger plays more than half the game, Pittsburgh wins 27-21
If Landry Jones takes more snaps than Big Ben, Indianapolis wins 24-13
Monday Night
- Dallas Cowboys at Washington (-3.5): The equation remains quite simple: NO TOny ROmo means…AAGH! The extra letter capitalization there is something which drives me crazy. I deliberately left it in this time instead of editing it out to show you the travails of being a sportswriter with a 5-year-old laptop that has seen more than it’s share of food on my grubby fingers getting into the keyboard and making keys stick.
Now where was I? Oh yeah. No Romo = Dallas loss. It’s that simple.
Ethnic Slurs 36, Cowboys 28
