Last Week: 6-8. I forecast some upsets which didn’t happen and didn’t see the storm clouds brewing in the ones that did. That’s what you get when you let your heart win…

Thursday Night

- Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-2.5): BRex Ryan returns to the Big Apple against the team he coached with great prominence for most of the last decade. Rex proved this week he’s still the best thing ever to happen to the sports editors of the New York Post. He named IM Enemkpali a team captain, one of the greatest troll moves ever. You might recall Enemkpali was a Jet until he slugged quarterback Geno Smith in training camp, breaking Geno’s jaw and costing him the starting job. Ryan quickly signed him, though the burly defensive end was subsequently released in the meantime.

It will be interesting to see how the Jets--and Jets fans--respond to Rex’s return. He was as beloved of a coaching entity as anyone who has never really won anything, both by players and a fan base forever loathsome of being second fiddle to the Giants in the home stadium and the Patriots in the AFC East. New Jets coach Todd Bowles avoids the media consternation and instead focuses his energy on creating an attacking defense that works brilliantly some weeks but falls apart in others. He’s a detail-oriented coach, whereas Rex is more about momentum and motivation.

Both teams have a little momentum, coming off wins. New York comes off a win over a Jacksonville team which lit up Buffalo a week earlier. The Jets have allowed between 20 and 24 points in five of their last six, so the question here is, can the New York offense put up 25 or more against Buffalo’s defense? They average exactly 25 points per game. Tough forecast for what should be one of the most entertaining Thursday night games this season.


Jets 25, Bills 23 

Sunday Best

- New England Patriots at New York Giants (+7.5): There is a history here, one Patriots fans really don’t like to talk about. These Giants have a long history of raining on New England parades, from Super Bowls to long win streaks. The most notorious was the unceremonious termination of New England’s perfect 2007 season in the subsequent Super Bowl, but the Giants have won the last three meetings.

There are two ways of looking at this course of experience. Either the Giants are emboldened by the recent past success of being David and slaying Goliath, or the Patriots are more wary of the sleeping Giant killer and squash the inferior team before it gets a chance to slingshot to victory.

I lean towards the latter, but not for the reason most will cite. While Tom Brady figures to have a prolific passing afternoon, I think the Patriots' defense is the reason why they’ll prevail on the road. The New York offensive line features a pair of turnstiles at tackle in Marshall Newhouse and rookie Ereck Flowers. While Eli Manning has low sack numbers, that’s because he’s getting rid of the ball quickly and not some great protection from the edges. I like the Patriots ability to blitz the interior of the line, which has been very good but can be spread thin. The ability to shut down the run game without dedicating extra help in the box will be a problem for the New York offense, too.

Even though it’s been in absentia all year, I do think the New York pass rush finally rears its head and disrupts Brady a little. But the Patriots get the ball out into space quicker than anyone, and the Giants issues at linebacker and safety will be exposed. Strange things can happen, but it’s hard to see this New England mission being disrupted here.

Patriots 28, Giants 20

- Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5): It’s put up or shut up time for the Cardinals, who despite being 6-2 are still seen as something of a paper tiger by many media. I wouldn’t go that far but their 6-2 record comes almost exclusively at the expense of playing the worst teams in the league. The two best teams they’ve faced, Pittsburgh and St. Louis, both beat them and the Steelers did it with Landry Jones finishing the game at quarterback.

It’s also put up or shut up time for Seattle, an unsteady returning NFC champ at 4-4. When last we saw Pete Carroll’s team they needed a last-minute field goal to squeak past the Tony Romo-less Cowboys as their offensive line once again played as bad as you’ll ever see on a respectable team in the NFL. Now they face Calais Campbell, impressive rookie pass rusher Markus Golden and a smothering Arizona secondary.

I’m siding with the week of rest, the home field advantage and the fact the lowly Browns found a lot of early success in Arizona’s last game. I know it’s perilous to compare one game situation to another, and the Cardinals did rally with a vengeance to victory in Cleveland, but I’m just not sold on Arizona being able to go into Seattle and win a game the Seahawks absolutely must have in order to keep their division title hopes alive.

Seahawks 23, Cardinals 17

Sunday Rest

- Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams (-7.5): The Rams are built almost perfectly to defeat the Bears. Everything St. Louis does well directly corresponds with things that give the Bears serious trouble. The defensive line featuring Aaron Donald and Robert Quinn are a major problem for a Bears offensive line that, despite playing better lately, is still in the bottom ten in terms of talent. Only five teams surrender more yards per carry than the visitors from up I-57, and right now the Rams have the hottest RB in the league in rookie Todd Gurley. I do think Alshon Jeffery will give the Rams some fits, but I’m not sure he’ll hold onto enough of Jay Cutler’s throws to make them pay. I expect a big day for Gurley, to the tune of 158 yards and three TDs.

Rams 30, Bears 17

- Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5): The Browns have two wins at Pittsburgh since 1989, yet they have their best chance in years with Ben Roethlisberger injured once again for the Steelers. Landry Jones takes over for the yellow and black attack…

…which takes me back to 1989 and my teenage self. I was a huge fan of the band Stryper and their version of the Yellow and Black Attack. I even caught a Bible at one of their concerts, a proud talisman I kept in the glove box of my car for years. I knew Stryper was cheesy, God-rock schlock. I didn’t care. Oz Fox’s tasty guitar licks, Michael Sweet’s tinny falsetto, the yellow and black spandex, the teased hair and makeup that Tammy Fae Baker would have thought too much, man was that band glorious! In God We Trust, in him we must believe. I’m going to be singing that for the rest of the day, smugly proud of myself for both once being so naïve and now so carefree that I can laugh at myself. Now where did I put that Bible…?

Steelers 21, Browns 20

- Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5): Once again, the Cowboys are as easy to forecast as predicting humidity on a summer day in Houston. No Tony Romo = Cowboys loss. The negative karma of the Greg Hardy situation negates any potential alternate outcome.

Buccaneers 26, Cowboys 21

- Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-11.5): I’m straining my brain to come up with a way the 1-7 Lions somehow topple the 6-2 Packers for Detroit’s first win in the state of Wisconsin since George H.W. Bush was President. Outside of Aaron Rodgers getting food poisoning or Clay Matthews breaking a bone on the first play, it’s just not happening. It’s a moral victory if the Lions aren’t losing by two touchdowns after the first quarter. That would be the only victory Detroit tastes.

Packers 37, Lions 18

- Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans (+4.5): This game is not a popular answer in the growing parlor game of guessing when the Panthers finally lose a game. And that’s precisely why I’m picking the Titans. Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!

In all seriousness, I do actually think the new-look Titans can pull this off. It will take a smart, strong game from rookie QB Marcus Mariota, but he’s capable. The Tennessee defense will have to step it up and make Cam Newton pay for being the least accurate quarterback (it’s true, by a pretty wide margin too) in the league. Albatross!

Titans 20, Panthers 17

- Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5): The difference here figures to be Miami’s lousy run defense. Want to see something truly amazing?

 

Little of Miami’s fault actually lies with No. 93, but he’ll take the lion’s share of the blame with his hefty contract. Miami’s bigger issue is that when they try to commit more to stopping the run, the back end opens up and coverages break down. Sam Bradford is not a good quarterback, but he can take advantage of mistakes. So can Ryan Mathews out of the backfield. And Darren Sproles, who could be poised for a big fantasy week.

Between those issues and the way the Eagles defense is coming together, I sense doom for the visitors.

Eagles 36, Dolphins 27

- New Orleans Saints at Washington (+0.5): What kind of a ridiculous line is half a point? Seriously, the wager is that the game doesn’t end in a tie, an outcome that happens about once every four seasons.

If ever there were a statement that the bookies have no clue what’s going to happen in a game, this is it. I’d like to offer you something profound to help you with Joey the Barber and his leather pants (folks in my hometown know exactly what I’m talking about), but after watching both of these teams more often than I probably need to this season, I’m not sure what’s going to happen either. I lean towards Washington and Kirk Cousins, but only if he doesn’t turn the ball over.

Ethnic Slurs 30, Saints 28

- Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5): I would say this game is rife with draft consequences, as both these teams are 2-6. Right now the Jaguars would pick fourth and the Ravens sixth. However, the Jaguars have a much better chance of winning the AFC South than they do picking in the top-5. Seriously. With Andrew Luck out for most of the rest of the season, if the Jaguars can win this game and build a little momentum they are the healthiest of the craptastic division.

And I think the Jaguars will win, based on the matchup of Blake Bortles and the aerial attack against Baltimore’s spectacularly bad pass defense. Philip Rivers picked them apart with his 5th and 6th wideouts Monday night. Jacksonville’s defense is no great wall either, but they can at least slow down the inconsistent Joe Flacco. His elite meter currently ranks between the cucumber and radish on the list of vegetables, with carrots at the pinnacle and lima beans in the pit.

Jaguars 32, Ravens 27                                                                                         

- Minnesota Vikings at Oakland Raiders (-2.5): Even though they lost at Pittsburgh, the Raiders acquitted themselves on the eyeball test. Well, at least the offense did. The defense, on the other hand, gave up the most yards in NFL history to a pair of teammates. And while the Vikings don’t have Antonio Brown outside, they do have Adrian Peterson to attack the porous Oakland run defense.

The big cloud over this forecast is the cloudy head of Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater. He was knocked out, quite literally, of last week’s game against St. Louis and remains in the concussion protocol. Mike Zimmer expects him to play as of Wed night, but it’s not his call. And while I respect Shaun Hill as a backup, he’s not going to beat the Raiders in Oakland. So this game gets the early deadline hedge treatment:

If Teddy plays, Vikings win 30-26. If Teddy sits, Oakland prevails 31-24

- Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-6.5): Alex Smith is not beating this Denver defense. Kansas City is taking a salad shooter into a knife fight. They might land a shot here or there, but in the end the Broncos are just too sharp.

Broncos 23, Chiefs 10 

Monday Night

- Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-10.5): It’s revenge time in the Jungle. Houston ended Cincinnati’s playoff runs before they could even start two years in a row, after the 2011 and 2012 seasons. The Bengals did extract some payback last year in Houston, but this one is for the home fans. The Texans struggle to cover the middle of the field on defense, and they just don’t have anyone who can match up with Tyler Eifert. If they roll extra help his way, then A.J. Green is isolated on the outside and that’s not a healthy matchup for Houston, either.

Do I worry about the Andy Dalton choking in prime time factor? I do, though probably a lot less than most folks. The narrative has changed, people, whether you like it or not. This game will be further reinforcement that these undefeated Bengals should be taken seriously.

Bengals 30, Texans 17