Last Week: 9-5 including two almost perfect scoring forecasts. 79-39 on the season.

I’m writing this on Wed. Nov. 4th in Zeeland, MI. It’s 74 degrees, bright and sunny. I’m wearing shorts on my back porch and most of my neighbors are mowing their lawns one last time. Hope everyone enjoyed this great warm spell while it lasted!

Thursday Night

- Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-10.5): It’s been an interesting week for the Browns. They tried to deal the franchise’s best player since the 1999 resurrection in Joe Thomas, but quite publicly failed to reach an agreement with the Broncos. Every other player they tried to deal, including Alex Mack, Barkevious Mingo and Justin Gilbert, was met with a collective “meh” by other teams.

Now word has come out that Josh McCown is injured and Johnny Manziel will start. This somewhat surprising turn of events happens in a short work week for a road game against an undefeated divisional opponent. The two best guys charged with protecting Mr. Football enter this game with the knowledge the team thinks it’s better off without them long-term.

The promos for this game have featured a retired judge from Cleveland and a hot dog vendor from Cincinnati. I’m a Cleveland native and I’m offended for the good folks of Cincinnati, even though some Skyline Chili on a steamed dog is a delectable treat. Why not get more recognizable, emblematic representatives for these cities? Drew Carey and Jerry Springer. LeBron James and Johnny Bench. George Voinovich and John Boehner. It’s really not that hard to find a more even mix of prominent city reps. Then again, nobody from Cleveland will want to be associated with this outcome…

Bengals 33, Browns 13

Sunday Best

- Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers (+2.5): This is the second week in a row the Packers are road favorites against an undefeated opponent with a nasty/great defense. Denver exposed the lack of skill position talent around Aaron Rodgers, in part by dominating the best Packers’ offensive line since the 1960s.

Carolina’s D isn’t to Denver’s level, but they are pretty darn close. The DT tandem of Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short complement one another quite well, and both are quite talented. Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis are as good as it gets at LB. Then there’s Josh Norman at CB:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Josh Norman is leading all cornerbacks in yards allowed, passer rating against, INTs, and catch rate. On pace for an all-time season.</p>&mdash; Mike Renner (@PFF_Mike) <a href="https://twitter.com/PFF_Mike/status/662065857565220864">November 5, 2015</a></blockquote>

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If Eddie Lacy and James Starks aren’t effective early for Green Bay, the Packers are in real trouble. Fortunately for the visitors, their own defense is formidable enough to carry them to a win. If Rodgers has a meager supporting cast, Cam Newton has a spice rack with a couple of mostly empty jars of bay leaves and Greg Olsen. I expect the Packers to load up and try to contain RB Jonathan Stewart and force the likes of Ted Ginn and Devin Funchess to beat them…

…and they just might. Peyton Manning found some success attacking Casey Hayward and stretching the Packers defense. Newton has am AR-50 compared to Manning’s aging 9 MM, and Ginn remains one of the fastest humans in a straight line I’ve ever seen.

My overriding sense is that these Panthers just are not an 8-0 team. They might be the more dangerous team, but I believe Rodgers & Co will bounce back from the embarrassing performance in Denver. Being on the road two weeks in a row is tough, but I think their mettle prevails. Bet at your peril.

Packers 20, Panthers 17

- St. Louis Rams at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5): Is it too early to say this game features the two best running backs in the league? We all know Adrian Peterson is fantastic, but Rams rookie Todd Gurley is quickly joining him atop the pantheon of NFL rushers. Of course it helps Gurley’s cause when so many others (Le'vVon Bell, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster) are injured, but the first-rounder from Georgia is already a dynamic, impact performer.

Running will rule the day in Minnesota, and with the backs being a wash the focus turns to run defense. St. Louis holds the edge here, tied for 4th in yards per attempt allowed at 3.7. The Vikings are tied for 24th at 4.4. As neither QB is all that adept at loosening the opposing defense, I’ll take the Rams with the distinct matchup advantage up front. If it comes down to a kicking battle, I like St. Louis as well even though the Vikings are very good on return and coverage units.

Rams 23, Vikings 19

Sunday Rest

- Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-2.5): It’s important to not read too much into Miami’s crushing defeat in New England, as the Dolphins were born to lose and destined to fail in that Thursday Night mismatch. Now is when we see if Dan Campbell is really worth a long-term shot at head coach. How do his Dolphins bounce back from that whitewashing?

This is also a test for Rex Ryan’s Bills, who dropped two in a row before their bye week. In those losses to Cincinnati and Jacksonville they gave up 34 points to each, belying what should be a strong defense. Ryan has been historically terrible coming off bye weeks, going just 1-5 with his Jets. With the Dolphins getting the mini-bye from the Thursday game, the odds look even worse for the home team. Buffalo’s offense is too dependent upon unlikely variables, and even without Cam Wake the Miami defense is strong enough to control enough of those variables to carry the day.

Dolphins 28, Bills 20

- Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints (-7.5): The Titans fired Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt this week after 1.5 years of complete inadequacy. It was the right move, as the development of prominent young talents on offense was just not progressing as expected. Or needed.

New coach Mike Mularkey might not provide immediate tactical dividends, but Tennessee could get a bump from the optimism of not being saddled with a lost mentality under a coach who had lost 27 of his last 31 games as head coach in Arizona and Tennessee.

It’s a bad time to catch the Saints, who lit up the Giants secondary for 7 TD passes last week. Their offense is (obviously) clicking, and I’m just not sold a wounded Marcus Mariota behind a struggling OL can match them.

Saints 34, Titans 21

- Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5): Raiders fans are coming out of the woodwork now that their beloved team is finally respectable once again. The NFL is just better when the Raiders are significant, and I say that as someone who has been overly critical of that franchise for years.

Oakland could go a long way towards securing more fan confidence with a big win in Pittsburgh, a team that just cannot stay healthy. Losing Le'Veon Bell is a big blow. And the home field isn’t what it used to be, as the Steelers have already lost two home games in 2015. Last week’s loss to Cincinnati exposed a lot of flaws, namely the ability to ice a game on defense. I am impressed with the Derek Carr-to-Amari Cooper combo; both should be strong fantasy plays this week.

Somehow, some way I think the Steelers survive at home, but it will not be easy. For the sake of Raiders fans, I sincerely hope the visitors don’t lay a giant egg.

Steelers 30, Raiders 27

- Washington at New England Patriots (-13.5): New England is on a mission. Washington could keep this interesting, but in the end they’re just the latest bug on the windshield of the Patriots’ DeflateGate revenge tour. Pray for Kirk Cousins, who will throw at least two INTs as his Ethnic Slurs are forced to throw early and often. Washington’s inability to run consistently will kill them here.

Patriots 36, Ethnic Slurs 20

- Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-6.5): I’m more than a little concerned about the Jets. In the last two weeks they’ve really fallen off. Between coverage gaffes, poor tackling, offensive injuries and the wane of the new coaching effect, Todd Bowles’ Jets are reeling.

They’ve really missed center Nick Mangold, the anchor for the offense. Now fellow beardsman Ryan Fitzpatrick is injured, and that means Geno Smith will be taking snaps from Wesley Johnson. Probably. Fitzpatrick was active in practice on Wednesday, trying to take snaps with his surgically repaired thumb.

Either way, the Jaguars are still coming off a bye and feature a dangerous aerial offense. Blake Bortles puts up a lot of garbage time stats, but the way the Jets have been playing the last couple of weeks he should find opportunities when the game is still undecided.

I’m hedging on this one with the early deadline. Even though the Jets have declared Fitzpatrick good to go, I’ll need to see it first.

If Fitzpatrick starts and finishes, the Jets win 27-21. If Geno goes, the Jaguars win 24-13 

- Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (+6.5): Blaine Gabbert is starting at quarterback for the 49ers. Blaine Gabbert. Just what the doctor ordered for a mopey Atlanta team desperately trying to stay in the NFC playoff mix, having lost two of three and barely beating the lowly Titans in the win. Blaine Gabbert. Wow. You just never go full Gabbert, not in the NFL.

Falcons 32, 49ers 9

- New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5): Tampa Bay is quietly playing solid football on both offense and defense. Not great, not awesome, but solid. Jameis Winston is growing weekly, and his guard tandem of Ali Marpet and Logan Mankins is one of the best in the league already. Facing a New York team which gave up 52 points last week and has no discernible pass rush, it’s fair to believe the Tampa offense will look good once again.

As bad as the Giant D was last week, it’s important to remember they scored 49 against New Orleans. Tampa Bay’s pass rush is hit-and-miss, and if they don’t rattle Eli Manning he’s going to pick the secondary apart. I do think the Buccaneers will find some success on the ground, and that can shorten the game into their advantage. This is a low-confidence forecast, as I can see either team prevailing in what’s a surprisingly even matchup.

Giants 29, Buccaneers 27

- Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (+3.5): Much will be made of Peyton Manning returning to Lucas Oil Field, but the bigger story is the desperate straits of the home team and their new superhero QB, Andrew Luck. The anointed one has been struggling, making poor decisions and not being the messianic figure far too many made him early in his career. Luck’s failure to progress cost Offensive Coordinator Pep Hamilton--who groomed Luck at Stanford--his job.

Rob Chudzinski takes over the offense. He can help Luck by playing with more tempo and allowing the mobile QB to create more with a rolling pocket or bootlegs. That’s how to mitigate the impact of a dreadful offensive line, which features holding machines Anthony Castonzo and Joe Reitz and a black hole at center.

Chud is up against it in his first week. Denver’s defense is the best in the NFL, having smothered Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last week. Manning might only need to author 3 scoring drives to put this game out of reach. Even with his weakened arm, Peyton is more than capable of that. His homecoming is triumphant.

Broncos 20, Colts 16

- Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+2.5): There is a very simple equation at play here: No Tony Romo = Dallas loss. Dez Bryant can do all he wants, but these Cowboys are not beating these Eagles with Matt Cassel at the helm. If it were Brandon Weeden I might give them a puncher’s chance, but with Cassel they’re going to get knocked out. Don’t call it a Philly comeback, they’ve been here for years, rockin’ their peers and putting suckers in fear. Okay, not really, but you get the gist…

Eagles 40, Cowboys 17

Monday Night

- Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers (-3.5): These teams are a combined 4-11. None of those four wins are over a team currently above .500. San Diego has only beaten Detroit (barely) and Cleveland (on the last play), while Chicago is the only team Detroit has beaten.

The Chargers nominally have a better roster, though losing top wideout Keenan Allen to a lacerated kidney certainly (and literally) hurts a lot. I’d take the Bears if Matt Forte were 100%, but he’s not even close to that and might not play at all. Philip Rivers gets the edge over former AFC rival Jay Cutler in a battle of skilled quarterbacks I personally dislike with the fire of a thousand suns, too. I suspect he’ll lead a late game-winning drive that maybe 10% of the people watching at the start will actually stick around to witness.

Chargers 26, Bears 24