Last week: 9-5, breaking the string of double-digit win weeks but still not too shabby. 70-34 on the season, maintaining the edge on the 66% percent goal.

Rarely do natural forces confluence with football as perfectly as this weekend. It’s Daylight Savings “fall back” time for much of the country. That means an extra hour of sleep Saturday night to be perfectly fresh for Sunday’s 9:30 ET London kickoff. Enjoy the snooze and then morning football, even if it’s a dog of a game between the 2-5 Chiefs and 1-6 Lions.

Thursday Night

- Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-7.5): The new-look Dolphins and fiery interim head coach Dan Campbell get to measure up against the undefeated Patriots in a game which could be a de facto coronation of the AFC East crown if the home team wins.

Miami has transformed offensively under Campbell, dedicating to the run. They’ve also found their defensive teeth…

 

New England gets the ball out of Tom Brady’s hand so quickly, I think it mitigates the reinvigorated Miami pass rush. They’re also a sneaky good screen team, and that can nicely counter an aggressive unit. I like the concept of Julian Edelman out in space against the Miami safeties.

This is a reality check for Campbell’s Dolphins. You can bet Bill Belichick wants to put him in his place early, spectacularly and very publicly in this primetime game. I like the Patriots defense a lot here, even with their occasional coverage lapses.

Patriots 27, Dolphins 14 

Sunday Best

- Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos (+2.5): This is one of only two Sunday games where both teams enter with winning records. Both are undefeated and coming off byes, which makes this a very difficult forecast.

Denver’s strength is defense, and how they operate defensively matches up about as well as any team can with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense. Denver can generate pressure from different angles and do so by often rushing just four. Their linebackers cover well and their corners are swift and fearless. No team allows fewer yards per completion (8.4) or has a higher sack percentage (10.5) than Denver.

The Packers' defense is also pretty darn good, however, and that gives the unblemished visitors a great chance to pull off the victory. This is the best all-around defense Green Bay has had since Rodgers took over. And with Peyton Manning unable to stretch the defense with the deep ball any more, expect the Packers to really focus on suffocating the intermediate passing game. Because the Broncos cannot run the ball effectively either, I really like Clay Matthews, Mike Daniels and company to keep the points scant for the home team. But Manning has more weapons who can create for themselves than Rodgers does, and that helps the Broncos squeak by at home.

Broncos 19, Packers 17

- Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1): Pittsburgh should get Ben Roethlisberger back, and they desperately need him if they wish to knock off the undefeated Bengals. Cincy is coming off a bye and looks like the most balanced, efficient team in the AFC.

Roethlisberger would be wise to reincorporate Antonio Brown back into a more prominent role in the Pittsburgh offense. Arguably the league’s best playmaker at wideout, he’s been an afterthought with Mike Vick and Landry Jones at the helm. While it’s nice to have Martavis Bryant looking good, Brown is the progenitor of the passing offense and the guy who makes defenses react to his presence.

Cincinnati’s offensive balance makes them a tough match for Pittsburgh, even at home. The Bengals also have a big advantage at kicker, though on a cold and likely iffy Heinz Field in November any place kicking advantage is likely hearsay. I’m a little worried that the bye will suck the momentum from Cincy. It’s happened before, after all. I am convinced this is a new Andy Dalton, and this game should help convince the lingering doubters these Bengals are not the same pussy cats any more.

Bengals 23, Steelers 21 

Sunday Rest

- Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) in London: The Lions fired offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and two assistants in response to the grossly underachieving, easily defended offense. Lombardi managed to turn an offense with Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, Eric Ebron, Matthew Stafford and a solid rotation of RBs from a potential shiny new Camaro into a beat-up 1978 El Camino with transmission problems.

Jim Bob Cooter takes over, though he has very limited time to make impactful changes in less than a week with one of the days lost to travel across the pond. Fixing the blocking scheme is the most paramount issue, and that won’t happen overnight.

I can’t help but think Detroit gets a bump from the unexpected firings. I also like that the Lions authored a massive comeback last year in London against Atlanta, and Matthew Stafford is due for one of his big games. When was the last time anyone said that about Kansas City’s Alex Smith?

Lions 28, Chiefs 24 

- Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+1.5): Three reasons why I’m picking the Bears here…

- Chicago is coming off a bye and will have fresh legs and minds. That matters for guys like Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffery and an overworked defense.

- Minnesota had far too many negative plays offensively versus Detroit. Many were predictable runs that were poorly blocked. That’s something the Bears can do too.

- Robbie Gould vs. Blair Walsh in the battle of the kickers. Gould remains one of the very best even though his range is one of the shortest. Walsh is big-legged but inconsistent.

Bears 23, Vikings 19

- Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns (+5.5): Josh McCown is walking wounded. Johnny Manziel may or may not be suspended by the league. The Browns QB situation remains in chronic flux. That’s a very difficult proposition when facing a hungry Cardinals team that has alternated wins and losses the last four weeks.

This does have some makings of a trap game for Arizona. Their bye comes next week, and it’s on the road against a clearly inferior opponent. The Cardinals didn’t play all that well in last week’s win against Baltimore other than the first handful of drives, either. If the Browns can somehow manage a special teams score, or a pick-six if Carson Palmer isn’t at his best, the Dawg Pound could bark up an unexpected win. But it’s much more likely the Browns choke on one bone or another this week and the Cardinals cruise into their bye 5-2.

Cardinals 31, Browns 17

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5): As I’m writing this I’m attempting to help my son with his math homework. My Layne is only in 4th grade but is smart enough he takes 6th grade math, and they’re working on dividing fractions out of story problems. Math was never my strong suit, as frequent readers who try to decipher my mathematical extrapolations can attest.

How does this relate to football? Atlanta coach Dan Quinn is doing algebraic equations with his defense. Tampa Bay coach Lovie Smith is trying common core addition with a dull pencil defensively. Atlanta’s defensive speed is going to create issues for Jameis Winston, who is quietly playing pretty well for a rookie QB. Tampa Bay’s lack of playmakers pose little threat to Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman et al. If Lovie could mix in some more advanced geometric concepts his team might stand a chance, but he’s strident in his linear ways.

My son finished the math homework. I did not help other than getting him a cup of water. My work here is done!

Falcons 37, Buccaneers 24

- Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-3.5): My friend Jayson Braddock, a sports radio host in Houston, posted a couple of very intriguing tweets this week on the Texans and Bill O’Brien’s coaching:

 

 

Ladies and gentlemen, that is dysfunction at its core. Add in that both Arian Foster and Cecil Shorts have been lost late in blowout losses and it’s easy to see why O’Brien is skating on increasingly thin ice. A loss here won’t help, though he did redeem himself some by cutting immature pariah Ryan Mallett.

Titans 20, Texans 17 

- San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (-8.5): Looking for a silver lining to the dark cloud that is the 2015 Jim Tomsula disaster, 49ers fans? Well, there’s this: the 49ers lead the league in fewest penalty yards per game, and by a pretty substantial margin. San Francisco averages just 37.7 penalty yards per game, a full 12.7 yards better than the next-best Cardinals. By way of comparison, the Rams are tied (with New England) for 21st at 64.7 penalty yards per game.

Unless the Rams are guilty of multiple defensive fouls that move the 49ers down the field, there is very little chance Colin Kaepernick finds much success against the fantastic defensive front and improving St. Louis secondary. The Rams fans who actually show up, and last week there weren’t many, could see a shutout.

Rams 24, 49ers 6 

- New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-3.5): Key matchup edge in this game is New York’s passing offense against New Orleans’ pass defense. The Saints are dead last in yards per completion, but they’re improving at the other facets of pass D; sack percentage, completion percentage and yards per attempt have all gone down as New Orleans has won three of four to pull back to respectability. They’re also pretty good at getting off the field on third downs, something the Giants do not do well.

I worry a lot about New York’s lack of pass rush against Drew Brees. My initial inclination was to go with the Giants, but the more I studied New Orleans over the last month the more I really moved to the Saints. New York’s pass defense is porous, and I’m going to trust Brees at home more than Eli Manning on the road in a game rife with NFC playoff implications even though it’s a 3-4 team hosting a 4-3 team. As long as it doesn’t come down to kicking, the Saints should prevail.

Saints 29, Giants 27

- San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5): Didn’t see this as a game between 2-5 and 1-6 when the season began, did you? Nobody on either sideline did either. I just can’t see Baltimore’s anemic pass defense stopping Philip Rivers, who would be my QB play in DFS games this week if I believed in that form of gambling. Then again, I can’t see San Diego slowing down Steve Smith much, either.  

Ravens 36, Chargers 31

- Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (+6.5): Do not overthink this one. No Tony Romo and likely no Dez Bryant against Seattle’s defense = no chance for Dallas. None. I’ll be stunned if this game is within 10 points even with Seattle’s atrocious offensive line stymying its offense. 

Seahawks 26, Cowboys 12

- New York Jets at Oakland Raiders (+1.5): Obligatory “Heidi game” reference. Now that we’ve got that out of the way…

Oakland erupted for a half in San Diego last week. The Jets are not the Chargers, and the Raiders appeared to run out of steam once they got the big lead. It could be they just took the foot off the gas in a decided game. Every possession will matter when facing a Jets D that ranks at or near the top in just about every defensive metric. New York is aggressive, creative and talented at all three levels. Oakland’s own D has played well in fits and spurts, and that offers the Raiders a chance to pull off the upset. If Ryan Fitzpatrick has a bad game, and he’s due for one of his legendary doozies, Oakland will move to 4-3 and claim legitimacy in the race for the AFC wild card spots. Don’t bet on it, but don’t sleep on it either.

Jets 20, Raiders 16

Monday Night

- Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers (-6.5): The Colts are approaching full meltdown status. Reports had vivacious owner Jim Irsay and smug GM Ryan Grigson arguing vociferously after the latest loss. Grigson and head coach Chuck Pagano have been at odds for some time now. Factor in a terrible offensive line, anemic pass rush and scary loss of both confidence and effectiveness from anointed franchise savior Andrew Luck.

That sad circus travels to Carolina, perhaps the antithesis of the Colts in terms of functionality. The Panthers are better than the sum of their parts on both offense and defense. In Cam Newton they have a leader who makes those around him better, a growing chink in Luck’s résumé. They play with energy and joie de vivre, qualities not seen in Indy in some time. I love the rebirth of Jared Allen, a savvy trade acquisition who bolstered a weak point with the Panther pass rush. Carolina holds the league’s longest regular-season winning streak right now, and streaks like that are notoriously difficult to sustain. But I really can’t see these Colts doing much about it.

Panthers 28, Colts 21