$.01--Still doubting the Cincinnati Bengals? Maybe it’s time you start believing. After Sunday’s stirring comeback win over visiting Seattle, you can almost hear Steve Perry warming up the pipes, exhorting everyone to “Don’t Stop Believin.’”

Andy Dalton and his Bengals teammates were singing along (tangential note--the stadium sing-a-long to the classic Journey song has quickly replaced “Seven Nation Army” as the absolute worst thing about college football) note for note. Dalton continues to play fantastic football:

 

My new colleague here at RealGM, Max Luckan, wrote a tidy piece about why Dalton and the Bengals are being so successful. Even on a day where the Seahawks scored a defensive touchdown, the Marvin Lewis’ Bengals never quit, not even down 24-7.

Having Tyler Eifert greatly helped, as the Legion of Boom had no answer for a competent downfield tight end. It seems Seattle’s defense is as befuddled by a good tight end as its offense is with the painfully underutilized Jimmy Graham (3 catches, 30 yards). Cincinnati has a two-headed rushing monster in Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard, but what really makes it work is Offensive Coordinator Hue Jackson’s willingness to ride the hot hand. It sounds obvious but few NFL coaches seem to have that sort of self-awareness in the heat of the game.

Seattle falls to 2-3 and it’s not a fluke. Given Monday night’s lucky escape against the pathetic Lions (more on that later), they’re quite fortunate to have more than one win. They’re playing more like a 1-4 team than the defending NFC champs. Their offensive line, which features three converted defensive linemen, is a sieve. The Bengals continued the onslaught, often looking like the Brazilian soccer team running past some random kids at the park. The Seahawks got some big runs from impressive rookie Thomas Rawls, but they can’t sustain drives because the line is so egregious in pass protection. Russell Wilson was sacked four more times and had trouble finding escape routes all afternoon. Ten more penalties also helped contribute to the loss.

Back to The Jungle. The last time the Bengals started 5-0 they went to the Super Bowl with a team of similar construct. Remember the two-headed running attack of Ickey Woods and James Brooks? Boomer Esiason putting some doubts behind him, throwing to an array of targets like deep threat extraordinaire Eddie Brown, steady Cris Collinsworth, speedy Tim McGee and Brooks out of the backfield? Like Dalton this year, Esiason had great success airing out the deep throws that year. These Bengals have a long way to go, but don’t stop believing they can make it. They’re for real.

$.02--Green Bay mowed through St. Louis, which played the role of butter to the Packers’ hot knife.

Aaron Rodgers and the offense tend to get all the credit, but Green Bay’s defense was just as responsible for this whitewashing. The D was certainly the sharper unit early in the game. On Nick Foles’ first seven dropbacks, Green Bay recorded a QB Pressure on all seven. One forced an INT, another resulted in a sack. It took a 32-yard pass interference penalty and a gimmick volleyball quick set from Foles to a jet sweeping Tavon Austin to get St. Louis on the board. The Packers treated the Rams offensive line like a school of piranha on a wounded goat

Rodgers struggled a lot more than he usually does, particularly at home. He threw two INTs and Nick Fairley dropped a third, though Rodgers fumbled on the subsequent snap and sack. There were several miscommunications between No. 12 and his receivers. St. Louis brought a lot of pressure but we’ve all seen Rodgers perform much better against tougher defenses. It just wasn’t his best day.

And that’s why the rest of the NFL should be mortified of the Packers going forward. They beat the Rams with defense and special teams. Nick Foles went back to throw 33 times. He was sacked three times, hit 12 times and only had seven dropbacks where he didn’t face official pressure. Green Bay picked off four passes and ceded just 143 passing yards, 20 of which came on a moonball fake punt by Johnny Hekker. The Packers blocked a field goal and were nearly flawless on special teams, save a boneheaded gaffe by reserve WR Jeff Janis ruining a Tim Mashtay punt that would have pinned the Rams inside their own two. It’s scary when the Packers play so well in the other phases of the game, showing they are a complete team that can survive the rare off day from MVP candidate Rodgers.

One bright spot for the Rams is the strong performance by rookie running back Todd Gurley, who chugged for 159 yards on 30 carries. The workload seems very high for a player who missed the first couple of weeks rehabbing a torn ACL from last season. It was interesting seeing the war between fantasy experts praising the high volume of carries and those worried about pushing him back too quickly for the long-term outlook. Some guys were actually arguing both sides of that coin, yet another reason why fantasy football is so far detached from reality.

$.03--Don’t look now, but the Chicago Bears have won two in a row. They squeaked past the host Kansas City Chiefs 18-17.

How improbable was this win? We’ll tell the story in tweet form:

 

 

 

 

Every story needs a hero. Enter Jay Cutler. Seriously…

 

Cutler rallied the Bears with two late scoring drives, the first an 88-yard drive in 11 plays where Cutler kept things alive with a third-down run. The Bears D forced a quick (one minute off the clock) 3-and-out to let Smokin’ Jay get another shot. He took it the distance, capped off with the awkwardly brilliant TD throw.

Kansas City falls to 1-4, but the bigger problem for Andy Reid is the loss of star RB Jamaal Charles. He tore his ACL in the third quarter, ending his season. The Chiefs offense managed one first down without Charles on the field, and that is not something that will change a lot thanks to the overly cautious tepidity of QB Alex Smith and the stay-the-course attitude of Reid with his sputtering offense. It’s hard to imagine them getting out of the AFC West cellar without Charles, a crushing blow to one of 2015’s most disappointing teams. 

$.04--I’m going to vent posthumously here on last week’s Monday Night Football game. To refresh your memory, the Detroit Lions were absolutely screwed by incompetent officiating. For the second time in their last five games, the NFL had to publicly acknowledge its officiating crew made a terrible, inconceivable error which greatly contributed to a Detroit loss.

A missed, obvious and admittedly intentional illegal batting call ended Detroit’s one good drive of the night in Seattle, keeping the Lions as the league’s only winless team. When K.J. Wright pushed the ball out of bounds in direct view of the back judge, the Lions should have gotten the ball back inside the 2 with a chance to go ahead. The fact so few NFL players or ESPN commentators actually knew this rule is disturbing in and of itself, but when the on-field official ignores it, the integrity of the game is violated. Lions fans now have four distinct recent memories where officiating incompetence has been a major contributing factor to a loss, including last year’s playoff game.

There won’t be a playoff game for Detroit this year. There might not be a win in Detroit this year. After the close-but-no-cigar effort in Seattle, the Lions were absolutely smoked by the visiting Arizona Cardinals. The Cards scored 28 points in the second quarter, taking advantage of more Detroit miscues than I care to count en route to a 42-17 annihilation of the NFL’s most underachieving team.

Matthew Stafford was benched. Deservedly. For Dan Orlovsky. The cynical few fans still in Ford Field cheered the move.

I don’t have enough fingers to point at all culpable for Detroit’s miserable effort. I don’t have the stomach to write about it right now, either. Suffice to say, what Jim Caldwell and his staff are trying is not working. It’s getting worse, not better, and that means change needs to come. Knowing the organization, Caldwell is safe until the end of the season. So is Stafford, because Dan Orlovsky isn’t taking anyone’s job. As for Offensive Coordinator Joe Lombardi, he’d better hope he’s renting.

Detroit’s flaming dog poo effort takes away from a really strong game by a very good Arizona team. I hope that doesn’t get lost on the national level. Carson Palmer was efficient with 3 TDs on 14 attempts. Chris Johnson posted 103 yards on 11 carries, while rookie RB David Johnson scored TDs on two of his three carries. The opportunistic defense pressured Detroit’s inept offense into more bad decisions than penny beer night at the Greenery, Ohio University circa 1994. Not that I know anything about that…

Arizona played like a team angry it lost last week. They were focused, they were concise and they were sharp. None of those adjectives would remotely apply to Detroit. There’s your nutshell on two teams moving in decidedly divergent directions. 

$.05--Go ahead and order your playoff tickets, Colts fans. Even without Andrew Luck, Indianapolis rolled two fellow AFC South opponents to seize control of what continues to be a laughable division.

Houston played the victim Thursday night, a completely overwhelmed victim at that. The Texans rotating door of death at QB spun back from Ryan Mallett to Brian Hoyer. It doesn’t really matter, as neither is close to as competent as Indy’s 40-year-old virgin, err, backup in Matt Hasselbeck. The veteran utilized several quick-hit passes to attack the soft Houston underbelly and the passive coverage from the likes of Kareem Jackson.

I love how the Colts schemed J.J. Watt out of the game. Watt, still the best player in the game for my money, had just two tackles and one QB hit. Indy double teamed--at minimum--the defensive end on just about every play and did a great job in operating fast, rhythmic throws. It was brilliant coaching by Chuck Pagano and his Colts staff, moves of which Bill O’Brien and his Texans had no real answer.

Hoyer posted some nice numbers in trying to get Houston back in the game but it was far too little, too late. Between Hoyer’s impressive garbage time stats and Mallett’s immature indifference to being a truly awful quarterback, Houston appears set to ride with change. Again. It didn’t help that the run game never got going against Indy, but teams relying on oft-injured running backs to carry the offense are doomed to fail before they even take the field.

When Houston’s defense isn’t making plays, the Texans are a lousy football team. Not being able to taking advantage of a thin Colts team playing without Andrew Luck, playing in NRG Stadium in prime time with a chance to pull even with the divisional front-runner is a stark indictment that Houston’s run as an AFC contender is over. Seeing Texans legend Andre Johnson score twice for the enemy is a total death blow. Houston had a nice run with middling QB play, winning playoff games two years in a row and riding Watt as far as one defensive player can carry a team. There are still several talented pieces to keep the Texans close enough to be “a quarterback away” in Nuk Hopkins, Jadeveon Clowney (playing better than his critics will acknowledge), Brandon Brooks and Duane Brown on the OL, even rookies Benardrick McKinney and Keith Mumphery. But until GM Rick Smith--or his successor--plugs the massive hole at quarterback, the Texans are cursed to mediocrity at best. 

$.06--Sunday morning kicked off with a jolt from the best “breaking” info man in the business, Adam Schefter of ESPN:

 

Note the careful wording. Inquiring about his availability is a lot different than Payton will be fired, or resign, or wants out. Still, this is a situation which has been brewing for some time. He was rumored to be a candidate for the Michigan job, allegations he swatted down but came from people with credibility on both sides of the equation. Enough people with some knowledge and access inside the Saints organization hinted to me (and several others) over a year ago Payton realized the window with this team is closing quickly and he has little interest in overseeing a rebuild.

The rebuild appears imminent. New Orleans blew an early 7-0 lead and got their doors blown off 39-17 in Philadelphia to the fledgling Eagles.

Sam Bradford threw red zone INTs on two of Philadelphia’s first three drives. That was about all that went wrong. The Eagles scored on every possession in the second half in putting away Payton’s Saints. New Orleans has some useful young pieces on defense, though Bobby Richardson missed this game. Yet Drew Brees appears at the very end of his great career, and the offensive line and weaponry around him just aren’t winning caliber anymore either. Surrendering five first downs via penalty didn’t help either.

Philadelphia improved to 2-3 and finally resembled the potential juggernaut Head Coach Chip Kelly has tried to craft in his own special way. Bradford shook off the early struggles, throwing for two TDs and operating the offense with genuine competence. The running game perked up, notably with Ryan Mathews on his 33-yard TD dash. The defense harassed Brees all afternoon, bagging five sacks. Eagles fans rejoiced in relieved triumph, and next week they play for first place in the NFC East when they host the Giants on Monday night. Given the painfully slow start, that’s all Philly could ask for at this point. 

$.07--I live in Zeeland, near Grand Rapids on the far west wide of Michigan. As such, this week is going to be a hot one and I’m not referring to the seasonable warmth as we enjoy the onset of foliage season. Michigan hosts Michigan State next weekend in a game which suddenly has major national significance.

Michigan’s rapid rise under Jim Harbaugh is one of the best stories of the sports year. The Wolverine program had descended from national power to mid-level also-ran over the last decade as a series of underwhelming coaches produced an inferior product and watered-down recruiting success. I attended games in the Big House last year with thousands of empty seats, an unthinkable sight.

In the meantime, Michigan State rose up and took over the mantle of nationally prominent program in the Mitten State. Mark Dantonio has created a perennial Big Ten title contender and NFL pipeline in East Lansing, a team coming off a major New Year’s Day bowl win and a Top 10 finish. They still carry a top 10 ranking as one of the few undefeated Power Five conference teams left.

They arrive for Saturday’s epic battles with decidedly divergent momentum. Michigan has pitched three shutouts in a row. The latest was a brutalization of previously unbeaten Northwestern, a game Michigan opened by returning the opening kickoff for a TD. The Wolverines defense has depth and playmakers at all three levels, enough that it can carry an inconsistent offense to the No. 12 ranking, their only loss at No. 4 Utah.

The Spartans are quite lucky to be ranked No. 7. In the last two weeks they have squeaked past 1-5 Purdue on Homecoming and escaped lowly Rutgers when the Scarlet Knights QB spiked the ball on fourth down instead of taking a shot at the game-winner in the end zone. Michigan State has yet to cover the spread all year, perhaps the best sign they have been overrated.

Overrated does not mean bad, however, and this game figures to be close. Connor Cook was mighty impressive in Rutgers, showing why several NFL scouts are at all Spartans games and almost universally regard the senior as a top 10 talent. The MSU run defense is solid, and Michigan has problems throwing when the run isn’t a viable play option.

This is going to be an awesome week in Michigan sports media. Having the two flagship programs competing for what could be a top-5 ranking and potential berth in the College Football Playoff is fantastic. Give credit to Harbaugh for turning Michigan around a lot quicker than expected. I picked the Wolverines to finish 8-4 at best. I expected Michigan State to hit this game undefeated and cruise. Now the Wolverines are 6.5-point favorites and I expect them to win. Either way, it’s great when rivalry games mean something, even to those of us with no rooting interest.

$.08--NFL Quickies

--Cleveland sent Baltimore into last place in the AFC North thanks in part to one of the greatest catches you’ll ever see. If you missed Gary Barnidge’s masterpiece, here it is:

 

--This one is for my friend Mitchell Clemons, one of the earliest supporters of this weekly column and someone not afraid to slap me with some profane reality when I need it. “Stud” touched my nerve with his kvetching about painfully clueless CBS color man Phil Simms, a frequent source of my own scorn on Twitter.

Simms defended Jason Garrett kicking a field goal on 4th & 2 from the New England five while trailing by 17. I didn’t hear it, but I can imagine it sounded something like this…

Well Jim (Nantz), you’ve got to start feeling good about yourself. Three points makes me happy. Zero points and I don’t feel so hot. At this point I’m not trying to win, I’m just trying to do something positive for my team. We’ll worry about winning later.

--Sticking with the Cowboys, there are rumblings of a QB change from Brandon Weeden to Matt Cassel to hold the fort until Tony Romo returns from his broken collarbone. Just don’t tell Simms…

 

--The fourth overall pick in the 1998 NFL Draft was Charles Woodson. On Sunday he picked off Peyton Manning, the first overall pick in that same draft. It was Woodson’s first career pick of Manning, his 63rd overall INT. Manning laughed last as his Broncos held on to snuff out Woodson’s Raiders 16-10 on a pick-six by Chris Harris. This was not an enjoyable game for the offensively inclined.

--Buffalo beat Tennessee 14-13 in another game which was a direct affront to offense. The teams combined for 162 net passing yards. Fans should demand refunds.

--Tampa Bay RB Doug Martin is a strong candidate for Comeback Player of the Year, racking up 123 rushing yards, 35 receiving yards and three total TDs in the Bucs 38-31 win over Jacksonville. Martin was great as a rookie back in 2012 but basically disappeared because of injury since. It’s great to have the Muscle Hamster back, even if he doesn’t like that moniker.

$.09--College/Draft quickies

--Cal QB Jared Goff is widely touted as the potential No. 1 overall pick next spring. Those hopes took a hit in Cal’s loss to undefeated Utah on Saturday. Goff threw not one, not two (picture LeBron counting here) but five interceptions. His ardent supporters like to point out how well he responded to the fourth INT, which to me is akin to praising the fox for only killing four of the hens in the coop. Goff has a lot of very impressive traits, and it’s patently unfair to judge him on his worst outing. But five INTs is a definite flag.

--My eyes were focused on Michigan State and Connor Cook at Rutgers. Cook played a great game, showing several translatable NFL skills. He’s got the arm strength and throwing mechanics. Cook can make anticipatory and timing throws, able to look off the defense and fit balls into tight windows at precise moments. I found his movement within the pocket improved. Yet there are warts here too. His ball placement is erratic and inconsistent, as is his decision making. Just as it’s unfair to judge Goff at his worst, this was perhaps Cook’s best game of the season and it’s important to keep context in the evaluation process.

--USC placed embattled Head Coach Steve Sarkisian on indefinite leave shortly after the crushing home loss to Washington. Sarkisian has a history of substance abuse problems and disturbing reports circulated on Sunday that he might have relapsed during and/or after the game. Get help, coach.

--Clemson waxed Georgia Tech, and the Tigers have a very legit claim to being No. 1. With Ohio State continuing to putter along with the likes of Maryland, Baylor feasting on cupcakes and TCU needing Kansas State to collapse to stay unbeaten, Clemson is the most consistently impressive of the unbeaten teams. Right now my top 10 looks like this:

1. Clemson

2. Utah

3. TCU

4. Ohio State

5. Baylor

6. Alabama

7. Michigan

8. Florida

9. Notre Dame

10. Texas A&M

--Want to impress your friends by knowing a draft sleeper? Check out Eastern Washington WR Cooper Kupp, who is about to break Jerry Rice’s NCAA touchdown record--and he still has another year of eligibility after 2015. Kupp leads FCS in receptions, yards and TDs and he destroyed Oregon with 15 catches and 246 yards. A legit 6’1” and wiry strong, area scouts estimate his speed in the upper 4.4 range. I’ve received indications Kupp will strongly consider declaring for the draft, and two different area scouts tell me he’s better than any PAC-12 wide receiver prospect since Keenan Allen.

--Congrats to Charlie Strong and Texas for pulling the shocking upset over Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. I’m a Strong supporter even though his Longhorns progress is slower than expected. The flip side is Bob Stoops suffering yet another humiliating loss for the Sooners. At some point it will catch up to him.

--My alma mater continues to chug towards a bowl appearance. Before a packed Peden Stadium, Ohio University thrashed rival Miami 34-3. Go Bobcats! 

$.10--If you’ve consumed any sports product on any broadcast medium in the last six months or so, you’ve been bombarded with advertisements for daily fantasy sports contests, or DFS for short. The pitch is simple, and attractive: win real money by assembling a one-day roster of pro athletes by competing with others to score the most fantasy points. Some people have won thousands, primarily on football though DFS does offer contests in other sports as well.

The conspicuity has garnered some unwanted attention for Draft Kings and Fan Duel, the industry heavyweights who have combined to dominate sports media advertising (including this site). All those promo codes and omnipresent adverts glossed over some very real issues, and now federal investigators are paying attention.

Per several sources, a federal grand jury is now convened in Florida to investigate DFS companies on charges of violating federal gambling laws. This is the same course of action that brought down the online sports wagering industry, which preceded DFS in prolific advertising and subsequent scandalous crash-and-burning by over a decade.

There are all sorts of legal angles to this. I traded emails back and forth with an attorney who smartly boiled it down to one great point: DFS operates in a dark grey area of legality where the regulations are antiquated and may or may not apply to the specific issues raised by a grand jury. The grand jury will see if a modern, 21st century online industry fits into the antiquated regulations designed to curb organized crime rings operating with rotary phones.

One thing the industry is definitely guilty of is a lack credible self-oversight. Draft Kings and Fan Duel are now scrambling to apply more after Draft Kings employees were found to have gamed the system for personal profit in a manner very similar to Wall Street insider trading. Employees are now forbidden from competing in DFS contests, either at the company of their own employment or competitors.

I’ve never played any DFS. The obnoxious advertising turned me off, but beyond that my “edge” is in actual sports game outcomes and not fantasy players. If I’m going to risk part of my paycheck on my ability to predict sports results, I’m doing so on whole teams and not individual player performances. Of course my preferred method is illegal, while DFS is not. For now…

My attorney friend, who actively participates in illegal online sports wagering and therefore remains anonymous, said there are two possible outcomes here. DFS could go the way of online gaming, moving offshore and putting great risk on individual customers for knowingly breaking federal laws to engage in an activity which was formerly legal. It’s a shadowy, secretive world which brings in significantly less revenue, not of it technically legal in the US.

Or it could spur real dynamic change to the Illegal Gambling Business Act (IGBA), a statute written in the Nixon Administration that still covers all these activities. An updated set of regulations could legalize all forms of online wagering, both on game outcomes and fantasy players. Lobbyists have already spent millions on both sides of this particular coin.

I hope DFS stays legal, but with actual external oversight. I hope online sports wagering is also legalized. Both are far more open and conspicuous than the alternate means, the coded phone calls to Joey the Barber, the collection enforcers with weapons showing up in grocery store parking lots to demand payment on losses, the rampant tax evasion and racketeering. To my eyes, DFS and online sports wagering are no different than online stock speculating and investing. If I want to invest in my knowledge on sports to make money, how is that any different from investing in knowledge on agribusiness to gamble on pork belly futures? The only increased regulation I want is a ban on more than two advertisements from any one company in any hour of broadcasting.