Last Week: 11-3. Two strong weeks in a row pushes the season tally to 41-21. The impressive performance here almost makes me feel better about my Lions being the only remaining winless team. Almost… 

Thursday Night

- Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+2.5): Very hard to forecast a contest with so many unknown variables…

- Is Andrew Luck, currently listed as questionable, playing for the Colts?

- How much will the Texans get from Arian Foster, still not 100%?

- Luck’s backup, Matt Hasselbeck, is also listed as questionable

- Ryan Mallett gets the starting nod for Houston, but how short is his rope after being yanked last week?

For all of Luck’s struggles, on his worst day he’s still better than either Mallett or Brian Hoyer at their typical level. Hoyer lit up the Falcons in mop-up duty, but Atlanta called off the dogs early. Indy’s defense is weak, but the Texans make too many mistakes offensively to fully capitalize.

So I will hedge my bet here. If Luck plays--and isn’t overly limited by his injuries--the Colts cruise. He’s ideal for beating the Texans defense with his ability to extend plays and avoid the rush. Hasselbeck used to be like that too, but he’s now 40 and looks every minute of it. I don’t see him winning in Houston.

This pick assumes Luck plays.

Colts 31, Texans 25 

Sunday

- Washington at Atlanta Falcons (-7.5): This game features two teams that are playing a lot better than what most folks expected. And there is a common denominator.

Both the Slurs and Falcons got swifter on defense. For Atlanta, the change came up front in adding first-round pass rusher Vic Beasley and DT Adrian Clayborn. For Washington, the secondary upgraded with Kyshoen Jarrett and Dashon Goldson, as well as improving the pass rush effectiveness. Those are improvements that will stick long-term, so don’t write off the loser here.

The key for this one is if the Washington defense can turn the Atlanta offense one-dimensional. The Falcons are thriving in part because they have outstanding balance. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are lighting up the air attack, while Devonta Freeman has scored three rushing TDs in consecutive games while taking no prisoners in his hard-charging effort. If I’m Washington, I’m trying to eliminate those big run plays, rolling extra coverage on Jones and making Ryan stand up to the pressure and beat me with Leonard Hankerson or Jacob Tamme. In theory, I do think Washington can pull it off.

Of course it’s all for naught if Kirk Cousins can’t protect the football. Last week the quarterback was very careful and prudent, even on the high-pressure game-winning drive. He might even get Desean Jackson back, and that would help loosen up an underrated Atlanta secondary. But it’s really all about how well Cousins owns the ball. In their two wins, Washington has one giveaway in each. Any more than that and they’ve lost. And because their defense doesn’t get the ball back (3 takeaways in four games), even one mishap could be costly. Atlanta is good at swarming to the ball, even scoring on a fumble return on the final play of last week’s bombardment of the Texans. If the turnover margin is no worse than -1 for Washington, I think they keep this uncomfortably close for the Falcon faithful. Unfortunately for Washington, Cousins hasn’t earned that level of ball security trust just yet.

Falcons 27, Ethnic Slurs 16 

- Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans (+2.5): The Titans have an interesting pass defense…

In short, it’s hard to grind out yards or move the chains against the Titans, but they are quite vulnerable to the big play and downfield throws. That’s bad news against the Bills, who have the second-most pass completions per game over 25 yards. Buffalo might even get big-play wideout Sammy Watkins back for this one, making the likelihood of paydirt even better. The Bills are inconsistent offensively, but I like the matchup.

Rex Ryan’s defense will pose a stern challenge for rookie Marcus Mariota. In New York, Ryan’s Jets went 9-2 against rookie QBs and held all but one (Russell Wilson) to a QBR below their average. Mariota has been impressive, but he’s going to see things in this game he doesn’t even know he doesn’t know.

Bills 28, Titans 20

- Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5): Inspired by nothing in particular, a little poetry to break down this game…

Chicago fans, embrace the last win

In relishing it, there is no sin

You might not feel it again

Not with a roster so thin

---- 

The Chiefs have flaws too

A boring offense with no teeth

But their defensive front goes woo hoo

They’ll trample the Bears beneath 

Chiefs 17, Bears 14 

- Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5): Looking for one particular reason why the Bengals have been so successful this season? How about their dominant passing offense so far. They average an astonishing 15.1 yards per completion, almost two yards higher than the next best offense (Arizona).

Here’s the thing…that figure is wildly unsustainable. Last year they averaged 10.5, albeit without Tyler Eifert at tight end and Marvin Jones as second banana to A.J. Green at wideout. The Browns led the league at 12.6 last year, while the Eagles led in 2013 at 12.9. Cincinnati is going to fall back to the pack. They might still be on top of the pack, but regression to the mean happens.

I think that starts with Seattle’s pressure defense. They were quite effective in coverage against Detroit on Monday night, notably with the coordination between linebacker and safety. Since Kam Chancellor returned, so has the defensive swagger. Seattle’s defense is going to slow down Andy Dalton.

The converse is also true, however. Seattle’s offensive line is as bad as any I can recall in recent memory, and I covered the winless 2008 Detroit Lions. That’s what happened when you start three guys who are defensive linemen by trade. Russell Wilson is fantastic on broken plays, but they’re relying on it too heavily to cover for a badly broken OL. Cincinnati’s defense is strong and deep, but most importantly they have positional discipline. Wilson and the Seahawks exploit discipline breakdowns better than anyone, and I suspect they’ll get a couple of big plays here. Will it be enough? I’m guessing (literally) it will be.

Seahawks 22, Bengals 20

- Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5): I would like the Ravens a lot more if Steve Smith were available, but he has quite literally broken his back trying to prop up a decidedly un-elite Joe Flacco and a subpar running game. In adjusting to new Offensive Coordinator Marc Trestman’s system, the Ravens have struggled to string together successful plays. Notably, a talented offensive line appears stunted by the learning curve.

The Browns have serious problems of their own. They can’t stop the run, missing too many tackles and not winning the battles in the trenches often enough. Their beat-up secondary, while getting quality play from Pierre Desir and Tramon Williams, often struggles with communication breakdowns. Cleveland’s offense has similar problems to Baltimore. In fact, they both average exactly 3.9 yards per carry.

I’m trusting in the veteran experience and better QB play to carry the Ravens at home, but I worry that they’ll miss Smith more than anyone likes to admit. When he wasn’t playing well early in the season, the Baltimore offense was terrible. If Baltimore can’t get up early, I don’t think they’ll win because they just don’t have the playmakers on offense to launch a big comeback. Not even against a Cleveland team which has trouble getting out of its own way with an uncomfortable frequency. I’m picking the Ravens at home but I love Cleveland with the extra touchdown on the line.

Baltimore 20, Cleveland 17                                                     

- St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers (-9.5): Everyone talks about the great Rams defensive front, but the Packers are playing some pretty effective defense of their own. Green Bay leads the league in sack percentage, bringing down the opposing QB on 11.5% of all dropbacks. The Rams rank 4^th at 10.6%.

Flip that around to the offensive lines. While the Packers miss right tackle Bryan Bulaga, I’ll still take their offensive line over St. Louis. That Rodgers guy at QB makes a little bit of difference too. Just a little ;)

I’m interested to see what Rams rookie RB Todd Gurley does after an impressive haul last week. He’s hard to tackle and possesses great vision, with enough power to absorb a hit and enough speed to pull away on cutbacks. I’m just not sure the Rams will keep this game close enough to ride Gurley’s legs.

Packers 35, Rams 19

- New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5): I liked what I saw of the youthful New Orleans defense in the win over Dallas. There are real building blocks in place with rookies Bobby Richardson, Stephone Anthony and Hau’oli Kikaha, all of whom start. They will present problems for an Eagles offense that struggles to generate any sort of consistent attack, or block inside.

Unfortunately, they often look like rookies too. This unit will be a lot better once it gets used to playing with one another in a complex scheme. I suspect they’ll have some success against Philly’s weak rushing attack and Sam Bradford’s poor pocket presence. These are part of the reason Philly leads the league in 3-and-out drives. But these Saints are going to give up plays, too. A lot, in fact; no team has a worse toxic play differential (for a description check out this link from Sporting Charts). They give up way too many and their tired offense doesn’t produce enough big plays.

I’m concerned about Philly’s ridiculously inept time of possession and play differential, both of which are last in the league. Because of this, they can never put opponents away. I wouldn’t want to give Drew Brees a chance at a game-winning drive, not even on the road. If it comes to that, I like the upset. That’s a 30% forecast. To play it safe I’ll go with the more likely outcome, but when it rains on Chip Kelly’s Eagles, it pours.

Eagles 29, Saints 27

- Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5): There is as much national interest in this game as there is in Turkish geopolitics, or the latest Iron Maiden album. As I happen to care quite deeply about the latter, here’s a brief review…

Bruce Dickinson is back. The voice is a little rougher but still strong after his bout with throat cancer, a malady he blames on performing oral sex. Yet another reason why he is, in fact, The Man. The Book of Souls features several longer songs which are radio unfriendly but will captivate you if you’ve loved things like Fear of the Dark or Powerslave. Bassist Steve Harris’ contribution seems more subdued in most tracks, while the guitar interplay is more expansive than recent efforts. My favorite song off the new double CD is The Great Unknown, while Tears of a Clown--a tribute to Robin Williams--appears destined to be a concert staple.

Maiden is going to tour once again. Perhaps they’ll play Raymond James Stadium. It will be a much better time for fans than this contest between two of the NFL’s consistently worst franchises.

Buccaneers 23, Jaguars 20 

- Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions (+2.5): Here’s an ominous stat: Since Christmas Eve 2011, the Lions are 2-15 where the kickoff is later than 1 PM Eastern. Even though this game is in Detroit, it’s a 4 PM kickoff.

In doing that research, my interest was piqued; just how bad have the Lions really been in late afternoon and night games? How about 9-39 since the turn of the century, when Y2K missed the rest of the world but apparently struck Detroit. Factor in the five losses in a row to Arizona, which is a superior team here regardless, and this one is an easy pick.

Cardinals 20, Lions 16 

- New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys (+9.5): If the Cowboys were at full strength this would be a very interesting game. But no Romo, no Dez Bryant, no real depth anywhere but on the OL and it’s just hard to see this Dallas team making much of a game against this rolling Patriots unit. Bill Belichick’s pressure/drop defense is a nightmare for Brandon Weeden, a very good thrower but not a very good quarterback under any sort of pressure or breakdown in a play. Few defenses make that happen better than New England.

Patriots 36, Cowboys 20 

- Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+5.5): Oakland couldn’t handle success, falling as road favorites in Chicago last week. The Bears have perhaps two defensive starters who would ever see the field for the Broncos. This one is not apt to be pretty for the growing legion of Derek Carr fanboys. Denver is 4-0 because of that defense beating up and breaking down better QBs than Carr.

Broncos 30, Raiders 14 

- San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants (-7.5): The 49ers offense is getting all the (negative) attention, but the San Francisco defense isn’t playing well either. This will be a rough week for them to get healthy, as the Giants are coming off an impressive outing against a much better Buffalo defense. This one could get out of hand quickly, though knowing how poorly the Giants close out prime time games it’s hard to rule out the upset.

Giants 28, 49ers 10

Monday Night

- Pittsburgh Steelers at San Diego Chargers (-3.5): The Steelers are coming off a bad loss, losing at home to bitter rival Baltimore. They swapped out their kicker, but that’s only one of the problems for the visiting Steelers.

One of the key matchups here is how well the Chargers can produce with their running backs. Melvin Gordon and Danny Woodhead are an effective tandem, and last week they got off despite major injury woes up front. The extra day can only help the walking wounded. Pittsburgh will have enough trouble marking Keenan Allen, Ladarius Green and the rest of the San Diego passing attack. It will only take one or two big plays out of Woodhead, equally dangerous as a receiver as he is a runner, to push the Chargers over the top. In fact, Woodhead actually has a higher per-catch average (12.7) than Allen (11.7) or Stevie Johnson (11.4), though he doesn’t have a receiving TD while the top two wideouts have combined for five.

I’m very intrigued to see how the Steelers bounce back from such a painful display of coaching and decision making last week. My gut tells me they will tighten the ship, but San Diego is not an easy foe to get healthy against. I like the Chargers to get a defensive score and pull away late.

Chargers 29, Steelers 20