$.01--You can’t actually wager on minutiae like this, but you could have made a lot of hypothetical money in betting on the Cincinnati Bengals being the first team this year to win four games.

A big reason why the Bengals remain unblemished is the improved play of embattled QB Andy Dalton. For years now, Dalton has been widely viewed as Cincinnati’s Yoko Ono, the hindrance from greatness of an otherwise talented group. Not this year.

 

We are seeing a more confident, more mature Andy Dalton. He is in full command of Hue Jackson’s offense, and with Tyler Eifert and Marvin Jones back he’s got the best weaponry of his career. The body language, the sideline and huddle presence, the self-confidence and awareness in interviews all reveal a guy who has made the proverbial jump.

It helps that his offensive line has been great. Kansas City’s defense is entirely built around the pass rush, with Justin Houston and Tamba Hali one of the best edge duos in the league. They got nothing on Sunday…

 

The juxtaposition of the two QBs in this game is more reason why I’m a believer that the new and improved Dalton isn’t going away when the season turns from pumpkin to tinsel. Unlike KC’s Alex Smith, Dalton will take shots down the field. He trusts his arm and he trusts his receivers to make plays, even if the defense is close. Smith is skittish and so risk averse he brings his own seat belt on the team bus.

That style fits this team. Cincinnati is very good across the board, a veteran team which has a great deal of experience playing together. They just need Dalton to not be bad. If he continues to be this good, the Bengals are going to run away and hide with the AFC North. Cincinnati already leads the beat-up Steelers by two games as they hit their bye week. Last year, they hit the bye at 3-0 and laid a giant egg coming out. If Dalton wants to get the giant monkey off his back, their next game is the ideal place to prove it. 

$.02--The Carolina Panthers are one of the most unlikely 4-0 teams in NFL history. Ron Rivera’s Panthers are not the most talented team, not even within its own NFC South division. Yet they continue to manufacture ways to win football games.

Just one play from Sunday’s 37-23 drubbing of Tampa Bay epitomizes Carolina’s first four weeks:

 

That’s backup tight end Ed Dickson plucking a Jonathan Stewart fumble out of midair and sprinting untouched for a touchdown. The Panthers are living right.

It’s not all luck, however. The defense is one of the fastest in the league, and the speed and sound fundamentals facilitated five Buccaneer turnovers. Even without star inside linebacker Luke Kuechly--still out with a concussion--the Panthers D continues to make plays.

Nobody makes more than cornerback Josh Norman, one of the best players you’ve never heard of. Norman is in his fourth season from Coastal Carolina, a fifth-round pick who struggled badly as a rookie thrown into the fire. He finally found his stride late last season and kept the ball rolling.

Norman was the NFC Defensive Player of the Month in September, and he’s already the clubhouse leader for October. He picked off Jameis Winston twice, including this pick six where he exploded on the route and never stopped until he was celebrating in the end zone.

 

About the only thing he did wrong was getting flagged for excessive celebration on the TD dance. Norman is setting the tone for the aggressive, cocksure defense.

This was not Cam Newton’s best game. He missed some throws (11-for-22, 124 yards, 2 TDs) and got bailed out on what would have been one of the worst INTs ever thrown in the red zone when Bucs LB Lavonte David dropped the ball thrown right to him. Then again, his top wideouts for the day were Ted Ginn Jr. and Brenton Bersin. Those guys don’t make the active roster in 30 other NFL cities. And that’s part of what makes this 4-0 start so surprising.

A favorable schedule has helped too. Tampa Bay falls to 1-3 as they get Winston up to NFL speed. Jameis had a typical rookie performance, some good plays (2 TDs, 8 third down conversions) but not enough to cover the bad ones (4 INTs). Carolina has also beaten Jacksonville, Houston and New Orleans, teams which entered the weekend 2-7 and might not combine for 10 wins by the end of this new month.

Carolina will be tested. Their next game is at Seattle, though the Seahawks will play it off a short week. They get a shot at Green Bay later this month, too. Cam & Co. will need more than fortunate bounces to stay unbeaten for long, but with this defense and with Newton’s confidence and leadership growing every week they’re likely to stay near the top in the win column for a long time. 

$.03--This Sunday slate kicked off early, with the New York Jets running roughshod over the “home team” Miami Dolphins 27-14. The Jets rushed for 207 yards and dominated the time of possession almost 2-to-1. The win boosted the Jets to 3-1 and buried the lifeless Dolphins at 1-3. They might as well be 1-10 with the way they are playing right now.

Miami’s situation reminds me of the Atlanta Falcons a year ago when they travelled across the pond. An embattled coach in Mike Smith, an underachieving team with too many players not living up to rich contracts, another lifeless performance where the other team dictated the action on both sides of the ball, it’s eerily similar to Philbin. Smith’s Falcons lost to a furious Detroit comeback in London. While he wasn’t fired on the spot, it was clear his future in Atlanta was done right there.

Philbin might suffer the same fate. In many ways being a lame duck is a worse situation than getting fired. Sure, Philbin can fire a coordinator like Kevin Coyle to spare his own neck for a few weeks. But everyone knows Philbin won’t be back in 2016. There is no point in prolonging the inevitable. Something has to be done to shake Ryan Tannehill out of his funk, if such a feat can be accomplished. Tannehill passed for 167 net yards on 44 attempts, an absurdly low figure that reflects a host of issues: a terrible offensive line, receivers who cannot get separation down the field, a scheme Ted Cruz finds too conservative, a scared QB falling off too many throws.

There is no easy fix, but there is no question Joe Philbin is not part of the solution. He might even be more than a little of the problem. Teams with this level of underachievement demand radical action. How does a defensive line with Ndamukong Suh, Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon not have a single sack in the season’s first month? How can a team with this much quality offensive skill position talent score just 16 points a game, not even close to making any big plays? It’s coaching above all else, and nothing changes until the coaching does in Miami. 

$.04--The Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night. The Baltimore Ravens happened to be the beneficiary, somehow picking up their first win in the process.

The primary culprit for Pittsburgh was kicker Josh Scobee. Now ex-Steeler Josh Scobee, as he was cut on Friday after missing two fourth-quarter field goals that would have boosted Pittsburgh’s lead. He was so off it convinced Steelers Head Coach Mike Tomlin to try and go for it on 4th down two subsequent times. Both failed, the second one a truly brutal play call decision to have backup QB Mike Vick throw in short yardage instead of feeding wildly effective RB LeVeon Bell.

For much of the game, Tomlin was pushing all the right buttons. Vick was moderately effective and protected the ball. The offensive line was routinely blasting a surprisingly soft Ravens defensive front off the line, with Bell charging through for over 120 yards. Pittsburgh’s maligned defense destroyed a passive Ravens OL, one clearly struggling to adapt to new Offensive Coordinator Marc Trestman’s divergent style, racking up five sacks and pressuring Joe Flacco more often than not.

Yet in critical situations, the Steelers were awful all night. Pittsburgh converted just 2-of-13 third down chances, and the failure there led to the two fourth-down flops. Perhaps fearful of Vick’s propensity for turnovers, the Steelers didn’t try to find star wideout Antonio Brown where he excels--the deeper routes. That helped make many of those third downs much tougher than they needed to be, as the Ravens defense could condense the coverage. The defense consistently rushed the passer even after Baltimore had already handed the ball off on draws and delayed handoffs, which helped Baltimore extend some late drives and get back into the game.

Tomlin shouldered blame for the loss, something he does with an uncomfortable frequency. At some point, the yellow and black faithful are going to start demanding more from Tomlin. Right now he still gets tremendous benefit of the doubt from the vast majority. On Sports Center after the game, anchor Scott Van Pelt asked recent Steeler Ryan Clark if Tomlin deserved any blame and Clark immediately turned the finger to Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley and the injury to Ben Roethlisberger. Tomlin must be part Teflon. Yet failing to absolutely bury a hated rival to 0-4 does not sit well, especially since it also drops the Steelers definitively behind Cincinnati in the AFC North race. Sooner or later, Tomlin will make the familiar trek to the losing postgame podium and his mea culpa will be taken to heart by the disappointed folks signing his paychecks. 

$.05--I almost never advocate in-season head coaching changes, yet for the second time in this article I’m about to do it. As with Joe Philbin in Miami, there is nothing positive about San Francisco continuing to employ the horribly overmatched Jim Tomsula as head coach.

To put it bluntly, the 49ers have no chance with the rookie Tomsula at the controls. He’s a good position coach who is almost universally liked by his players, peers and team support staff. He’s a great guy by all accounts.

You know who else fit that description? Rod Marinelli, the man best known as the only coach to ever go 0-16 in a season. Like Marinelli, Tomsula is utterly clueless about the offensive side of the ball and it shows on every single drive. The offensive line is a mess. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick is regressing by the week behind said line, a visionless, touchless chucker who seems lost. Tomsula isn’t helping either unit. Don’t just take my word for it; here’s what Bay Area talk show host and former NFL scout John MIddlekauf had to say:

 

The man in charge of the offense is Geep Chryst, previously Kaepernick’s QB coach. His only experience as a coordinator came with the 1999-2000 San Diego Chargers, where his units finished 28th and 26th in points, and if you flip those that was their respective rank in yards. He’s not exactly a proven offensive guru, though once again you’ll have a hard time finding anyone who has anything negative to say about him as a person.

It’s not working in San Francisco, where the shiny new stadium (technically further away from San Francisco than Baltimore is from Washington DC) was filled with more Packer backers than 49er faithful. The loss to Green Bay represented the franchise’s worst offensive output since Lyndon Johnson was President. While I’d like to credit Green Bay’s defense, the inadequate talent and ridiculous execution errors from the Niners offense had a lot more to do with it.

San Francisco has a built-in interim coach in Eric Mangini, a reclamation project of a Defensive Coordinator who is trying to get one more shot. He cannot possibly be worse than the ineffective Tomsula. If the Niners wish to keep any hope, it’s a move that must be made.

$.06--Heading into the Monday Night Football contest, here are my power rankings after the first month of the NFL season. This list presumes Seattle beats Detroit by my predicted 19-9 score on MNF.

Teams within groupings are basically interchangeable. If you think Houston should be 24th and Cleveland 30th, I wouldn’t argue. Much. That’s what mock drafts are for.

Also, I will be very surprised if any team not currently in the top-7 crashes that party, as all the teams in the next tier have one significant flaw that holds them back. Be it quarterback for the Jets, pass defense for the Giants and Steelers, injuries for Dallas (Pittsburgh too) or offensive line for Minnesota and (especially) Seattle, it will take unforeseen improvement for any of these teams to climb.

1. New England Patriots

2. Green Bay Packers

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3. Cincinnati Bengals

4. Denver Broncos

5. Arizona Cardinals

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6. Atlanta Falcons

7. Carolina Panthers

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8. New York Jets

9. New York Giants

10. Pittsburgh Steelers

11. Dallas Cowboys

12. Seattle Seahawks

13. Minnesota Vikings

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14. Buffalo Bills

15. Washington Ethnic Slurs

16. St. Louis Rams

17. San Diego Chargers

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18. Baltimore Ravens

19. Philadelphia Eagles

20. Indianapolis Colts

21. Tennessee Titans

22. New Orleans Saints

23. Oakland Raiders

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24. Cleveland Browns

25. Kansas City Chiefs

26. Miami Dolphins

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

28. Detroit Lions

29. Chicago Bears

30. Houston Texans

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31. Jacksonville Jaguars

32. San Francisco 49ers

$.07--Saturday was quite a day of surprises in college football. I could write a whole separate ten cent piece on it. I’ll narrow the focus here to two things.

First, The Ohio State University Buckeyes struggled a lot more than expected against Indiana. The Hoosiers probably deserved more respect, coming in undefeated, but this was still a talent mismatch on paper. But this wasn’t study hall and the paper footballs didn’t fly.

Cardale Jones didn’t fly either. The much-hyped, super-sized QB struggled all afternoon with a decided lack of touch and poor ball placement. If not for stud RB Ezekiel Elliott and three tremendous, long TD scampers, IU probably had the upset. This game was a low point for Urban Meyer and his Buckeyes, as they were undisciplined, uncoordinated and underwhelming. I’d say they played down to the level of competition but that isn’t fair to an Indiana team that sure looks like they’ll make a bowl game this year, a major accomplishment for that school. Right now I would have to say the Buckeyes just aren’t playing to the level of their own talent, and that’s very disappointing for this lifelong tOSU fan living in Spartan/Irish/Wolverine country.

Then there were the SEC massacres. I thought Florida might catch Ole Miss being a bit too chesty, but I never expected a 38-10 shellacking by the Gators. They seized the game from the opening minutes and never relented despite a virulent flu bug attacking much of the team. The Rebels had no clue what hit them.

The same was true in Athens GA, where Nick Saban took out his frustration with a bad loss to Ole Miss by ripping Georgia a new one. The 13th-ranked Tide rolled the 8th-ranked Bulldogs by the same 38-10 margin that played out in Gainesville. Georgia faithful were reminded why QB Greyson Lambert (10-of-24, 86 yards) lost the starting job on a significantly inferior Virginia team last year, and the Bama offense efficiently chugged out yardage before slowing down late, much to Saban’s postgame chagrin.

Florida and Alabama set themselves above the increasingly meager competition with the victories. LSU struggled at home with 45-point underdog Eastern Michigan, perhaps the worst FBS team in the country. LSU led just 30-22 into the fourth quarter before a drive of nothing but Heisman front-runner Leonard Fournette and a pick-six pushed the margin to 44-22. Kentucky nearly lost to FCS Eastern Kentucky. Only Texas A&M looks like a viable challenger after they vanquished Mississippi State 30-17 to remain undefeated. Auburn didn’t come close to covering at home against a bad San Jose State team, while Vanderbilt nearly lost to lowly Middle Tennessee. With the possible exception of Missouri, it’s hard to see any other SEC teams that can beat a top dog and the Tigers have some QB issues of their own. 

$.08--NFL Quickies

--Fantastic closing drive by Kirk Cousins and Washington to upend the Eagles. Cousins hit Pierre Garcon at the goal line and the wideout made an awesome catch between two Philly defenders to secure the game winner. I was impressed most of the afternoon with how well Washington’s offense created space. I was not impressed most of the afternoon with Sam Bradford or the Philadelphia offense. Ignore the box score, which said Bradford had a prolific day; the Eagles QB was jittery and more the problem than the solution in Philly’s latest loss.

--Houston, you have a problem. Ryan Mallett got yanked midway through the abysmal 48-21 loss in Atlanta, a game that was 42-0 at one point. It was so bad that the Falcons scored on the final play, an 84-yard fumble return by LB Nate Stupar. That was Atlanta’s second fumble return TD on the day.

--Looking for a reason why the Saints have fallen so far, so quickly?

 

--Important win for the Colts, who knocked off the visiting Jaguars in overtime despite playing without Andrew Luck. Matt Hasselbeck wasn’t great but he didn’t lose the game; Jacksonville’s kicker Jason Myers did. He might be ex-Jaguar by the time you read this after missing two potential game-winners.

--Congrats to the Chicago Bears for getting into the win column, beating Oakland 22-20 at Soldier Field when Robbie Gould nailed the game-winning FG. Sweet payback for the veteran kicker, whose first extra point was blocked. Nice drive to set up Gould by Jay Cutler, who showed toughness in unexpectedly returning to the lineup.

--The Rams are going to go 6-0 in the NFC West and 0-10 outside it. They sure looked strong in handing Arizona its first loss, forcing the Cardinals into uncharacteristic errors. Jeff Fisher teams are notorious for this, getting up for divisional games and then laying down like choking dogs the next week. Prove me wrong, St. Louis…

--Injuries sure appear to be scuttling the promising start for Dallas. Already down Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and Orlando Scandrick, they lost Lance Dunbar, Sean Lee and Tyrone Crawford in Sunday night’s 26-20 overtime loss. The Saints won the war of attrition.

$.09--College/Draft quickies

My current top 10 after the wild weekend

1. TCU, 2. Ohio State, 3. Baylor, 4. Utah, 5. Alabama, 6. Clemson, 7. Texas A&M, 8. Ole Miss, 9. Northwestern, 10. Michigan State

Didn’t get to do much in-depth scouting since Friday’s mock draft came out. However I do have a few notes…

--Came away from Clemson/ND very impressed with Tigers safety Jayron Kearse, who showed opportunism and closing burst. Also really liked Clemson DE Shaq Lawson, who exposed star Notre Dame tackle Ronnie Stanley with plays like this:

 

--A week after nearly losing at home to my Ohio Bobcats, Minnesota got blanked 27-0 by a balanced Northwestern team. Michigan also pitched a shutout in the Big Ten, downing Maryland for its second shutout in a row. Iowa beat Wisconsin 10-6 in Madison, while Illinois beat Nebraska 14-13. Other than Michigan, none of those defenses is near as good as the points allowed would have you believe. Lots of bad offense in the Big 10.

$.10--Saturday morning was an emotional one for me.

For the third year in a row I ran in our local festival’s (Zeeland PumpkinFest) 5k race. I got to run with my son Layne, which is becoming a nice annual tradition. Last year I finished 4th in my age group at 23 minutes and 42 seconds, a personal best.

This year I finished dead last in the same age group. My time was over 8 minutes slower at 32:38 officially (my FitBit said 32:02 but I digress…). Layne beat me by over 3 minutes, a sound whipping of his old man. After starting together, I couldn’t even see him anymore after the first half mile. It was cold. It was windy. The conditions were miserable.

It was also one of the greatest accomplishments of my life.

Four months ago to the day, I was lying in the ICU in the Cleveland Clinic. On June 2nd, I had open heart surgery to repair a defective aortic valve. The surgery (you can see what I had here) cut through my breast bone and installed a new valve made from cow tissue.

June 3rd was my first day with my repaired valve. I spent most of that day in the ICU in a six-foot-long bed. I’m 6’5”. I had tubes in my chest, my neck, my arms and another in a place where no man ever wants one. The patient on the other side of a thin curtain was suffering from pneumonia after his heart surgery, and his incessant coughing and complaining in Spanish made any rest impossible.

It hurt to move. Hell, it hurt to breathe. Coughing felt like being sliced with a machete right through the chest. My wife was right by my side, my mother too, but I hardly knew it.

I cried a lot that day. I cried when I woke up alive. I cried when I saw my wife. I cried when I found an unexpected tube in my neck. I cried every time I had to move more than one muscle group at a time. I cried when I finally got released from the ICU and into my own private room, one with a nice view of Cleveland’s beautiful University Circle. I cried when my surgeon, the amazing Dr. Eric Roselli, visited me and told me I was lucky we caught it in time. I had maybe six months left without the surgery, a shocking statement I’m still not completely over.

I promised myself that night I wasn’t going to cry over my heart issue again. My heart has technically never been better. I made it through the surgery and I was recovering well ahead of schedule even at that early time frame. I was blessed; no more reason to cry.

Until Saturday morning, when I crossed the finish line, I kept that promise.

I struggled through the entire run. The cold air made it very hard for me to keep my breath, pushing the limits of my lungs pushed up against the remaining scar tissue off my sternum. I had to slow down to a power walk several times. My special running mix, how I keep track of time and distance while I’m trotting, finished before I got to the three mile mark at the front of Zeeland East High School. My increasingly problematic right knee was burning with every step.

As I approached the finish, all my energy went into sprinting as fast as I could up the grassy knoll to the line. All I could think about was that day four months earlier, lying helpless in the Cleveland Clinic.

I didn’t care that my time was awful. I didn’t care that complete strangers were watching me. I couldn’t help it.

I broke down and cried. At first it was just involuntary tears on the cheeks. They quickly progressed into a downright sob. The emotion was completely overwhelming, so much that I couldn’t stand up anymore. I nearly threw up I was crying so hard.

The emotional complexity led to a paralysis of reason or control. I was happy. I was proud. I was scared. I was angry. I was triumphant. I ran my hand over my scar and prayed. I’m not a religious person but I thanked God for the experience, for the chance to feel, the chance to taste life, the chance to hug my daughter.

I’m crying as I write this. Burying the emotions is not something I do well, but like the cow part in my heart and the scar on my chest, it’s who I am. Still, I’m making the promise once again. No more tears, not for my heart anyways. Now to get to training for next year!