Last Week: 6-10. As Mark McGwire once famously uttered, “I’m not here to talk about the past.” Season total is 17-11.

The notorious statistical nugget being tossed about this week is the success rate of 0-2 teams making the playoffs. Just 12 percent of teams who drop the first two games wind up in the postseason.

Look at that number. 12 percent is one in eight. Right now there are nine teams that are 0-2. Four of those--Seattle, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Detroit--were 2014 playoff teams. The odds say that at least one of the current winless will make the postseason. Given the rampant injuries and unexpected early outcomes, I would bet good money that at least two 0-2 teams qualify for the playoffs.

Also, because some have asked: the lines I use here are from the ESPN Pigskin Pick ‘em game every Tuesday night. The odds you’ll find at various sports books are often quite different.

Thursday Night

- Washington at New York Giants (-3.5): I would comfortably like the Giants at home, but they have a potential problem at left tackle. Rookie Ereck Flowers is iffy, and if he’s not playing the entire line shuffles…and not for the better. Washington’s defense is better than advertised, able to bring pressure off the edge with Ryan Kerrigan but also inside with Jason Hatcher and Stephen Paea. Thus far they’ve gotten the good DeAngelo Hall and Dashon Goldson on the back end too, though how long those two schizoid DBs stay on the right side of the crazy train is anyone’s guess.

The other key for Washington is for Kirk Cousins to avoid the careless whispers of a good friend. When the music dies, something in your eyes. Sorry for the tangent, but here’s how my mind works…

There used to be a sportscaster in Washington named George Michael. You might have seen his Sports Machine program late nights. I was thinking of the Skins here and for some reason he popped into my head. Of course, the more famous George Michael was once the lead singer of Wham!, and that 80’s duo’s best song was Careless Whisper. I like the strangely emotive cover from Seether a few years back even better, although that band jumped the sullen shark for me about two albums ago. What the hell was I thinking about anyways? Oh yeah, football!

Cousins must avoid the turnovers, as he did quite well last week. It helps that the Skins have a decent offensive line and a strong running game. Rookie Matt Jones fits right in, and his hard-charging style can give a think Giants defense fits. Yet there’s something about Odell Beckham in prime time that makes me lean to New York. I’m not sure the Giants are the better team, but the better team doesn’t always win.

Giants 27, Washington 23

Sunday Best

- Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (+0.5): What important player will the Cowboys lose this week? In Week 1, Dez Bryant broke his foot. He’s going to be out until Thanksgiving, though Bryant himself insists he’ll be back to full speed before Halloween. Week 2 saw Tony Romo break his left clavicle again. He too will be out at least 7 weeks, as the team placed him on IR-Designated to Return. There is a chance Jason Witten, now the best weapon for Brandon Weeden, will miss this game as well with not one but two sprained ankles. I suspect he’ll tough it out, as he does currently hold the longest consecutive game streak (189 games) of any non-specialist.

Dallas cannot afford to lose Witten, but the most important remaining offensive player is center Travis Frederick. He sets the tone for the line with his nasty power and great leverage. Weeden will lean heavily on Frederick to keep his pocket clean, but just as important is taking pressure off the veteran backup with a strong run game. Atlanta’s new-look defense has improved in several facets, notably pass rush and tackling on the back end, but they’re still vulnerable to the run. The key for Dallas is to get Darren McFadden and Joseph Randle to the second level. The Falcons D-line is decent versus the run, but LBs Justin Durant and Paul Worrilow are prone to overrunning plays and getting stuck on blocks. If Frederick and his line mates can create some creases, the Cowboys should be able to carve out some yards toting the rock.

On the flip side, can Dallas slow down the Julio Jones train? He’s been on fire in the early season, making outstanding catches and defying all sorts of coverage. The Falcons OL has stabilized, and Matt Ryan looks sharper so far. They’re humming along at nearly 50% on third down, good for 4^th in the league. I like the Atlanta offense to find success in Jerry World. I also like their improved secondary to make a play or two to seal the road win and hand the Cowboys their first loss.

Falcons 30, Cowboys 27

Sunday Rest

- Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5): It fascinates me that the Ravens are still favored here, even though this game is in Baltimore. The Bengals are quietly one of the best performing teams in the first two weeks, while Baltimore has earned its 0-2 record with truly awful offensive line play and breakdowns at all three levels of the defense.

This brings up a tough situation. The Bengals are due for a cold front to hit, while the Ravens appear to have too much talent to continue sitting under a rain cloud. It’s going to take a mighty wind to reverse the prevailing course for these two AFC North rivals. And for the home team, the problem is compounded because the things they need to do better to break into the win column blows headlong into what the visitors do best.

Cincinnati doesn’t beat itself, while Baltimore has been making the critical mistakes. The Bengals are the best in the league at something called the toxic play differential, which compiles the big plays and turnovers for and against for each team. This is not a fluke either, as the Bengals have been one of the most consistent teams in this metric. The Ravens are a respectable 11^th and were better at this than the Bengals last year, which leads me to believe they can bounce back. To do that, they’ll need Steve Smith to play like he did in Oakland and the pass defense to play like it did in Denver. Those two strong hands have yet to clap thunder onto the opponent. The skies are sunny in Cincinnati, but there’s a storm brewing in the land of the blue crab.

Baltimore 29, Cincinnati 28

- Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3.5): Two teams coming off encouraging wins square off at First Energy, and the winner here will be 2-1. The big news here is Cleveland switching back to Josh McCown at quarterback one week after Johnny Manziel flashed legit competence in leading the Browns to victory. Returning to McCown is an interesting dilemma for Mike Pettine, who must weigh the great opportunity to build Johnny Football’s confidence against one of the worst defenses in the NFL against the “nobody loses a job to injury” cliché.

Does McCown give the Browns a better chance to win this particular game? Yes, I think so. But is this really about just this game, or is figuring out if Manziel is the long-term answer or not more valuable? On that question I also answer affirmatively. This is a wonderful chance to see if Manziel can sustain relative success and put down what looks to be an inferior opponent in an early home game where the fan base has never been more bullish on the precocious Mr. Football. McCown isn’t even a summer chicken, let alone a spring one. At some point a young chick must mature or else the coop will be ruined. Farmers can’t keep swapping out lame roosters. It’s too expensive and far less desirable than nurturing one to stud maturity. Either way, I think the team laying the egg in this one is Oakland.

Browns 26, Raiders 20

- Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+3.5): I don’t care how bad Andrew Luck has been, and he’s been bad. I don’t care how awful the Colts offensive line is, and it’s been worse than viewing an Adam Sandler movie marathon with your eyes clamped open. I don’t care how inept the Colts have looked in being the most unexpected 0-2 team in the league. I am not picking Tennessee to beat them, not even in Nashville. No offense to the Titans, but they got beaten up in Cleveland last week and that didn’t appear to be a fluke. Luck and the Colts are going to get it right at some point. It might as well be here. If not, Chuck Pagano’s seat will be in flames.

Colts 33, Titans 17

- Pittsburgh Steelers at St. Louis Rams (+1.5): Last week Washington exposed the fundamental problem of St. Louis relying so heavily on the defensive line to do everything for the defense. As great as that D-Line is, and it is indeed fantastic, they still only actually make plays about 25% of the time. The rest? That aggressive nature up front often stresses the linebackers to have to make tough decisions, and it frequently allows the offense to break containment.

Perhaps no QB is better in those situations than Ben Roethlisberger, and the thought of the Rams trying to cover Antonio Brown on those plays is painful. St. Louis has allowed opponents to complete 80% of pass attempts. The Steelers lead the league in yards per attempt and ranks 7th in completion percentage at 72.3. Now Pittsburgh adds star RB LeVeon Bell back to the mix, creating a formidable 1-2 punch with Deangelo Williams in the backfield. Williams more than held his own in relief duty. I can see the Rams taking away the run pretty well, but that might actually be worse for the back end, as it would make Big Ben throw more against the weak part of the defense. I like the over in this game. A lot.

Steelers 39, Rams 35

- San Diego Chargers at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5): The two teams who have beaten my Detroit Lions meet in Minnesota. Having watched every snap of both teams, I’m pretty confident in two things:

- San Diego will pick apart the Vikings pass coverage

- Adrian Peterson will maul the San Diego run defense

So to me, the balance in this game comes down to what other parts of these two teams can win the most battles. I like San Diego’s pass rush, featuring a healthy Melvin Ingram. Minnesota’s line played well last week but wasn’t challenged with speed. The Chargers come downhill quite well, and they have a great corner/safety duo in Jason Verrett and Eric Weddle. Minnesota has a pretty good one of its own in Xavier Rhodes and Harrison Smith, however, and I also really like their pass rush against a leaky Chargers line. This is a game where Brian Robison, Everson Griffen & Co. make the difference. Don’t forget, it’s an early start for San Diego although the weather forecast appears to be fantastic, nullifying any meteorological advantage for Minnesota.

Vikings 24, Chargers 20

- Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-13.5): If you’ve read this column for a few years, or tried your hand at wagering, you know the Patriots as double-digit favorites at home against non-divisional teams is one of the biggest sucker bets around. It’s like betting against Kim Kardashian taking a selfie for long than six hours; it’s theoretically possible but it just never happens.

Belichick spent Wednesday’s conference call talking up the Jaguars, heaping praise on QB Blake Bortles and his talented young receiving corps. And here’s the thing--he’s not wrong about any of it. It might be a bit hyperbolic, but Bortles does create problems with his feet. He did consistently make the right decision last week. Those receivers are very good at catch-and-run situations. You can almost believe that Belichick really does think the Jaguars are a serious threat in Gillette Stadium.

If the Jaguars are to pull off the shocker, it’s going to require them to create turnovers on defense. That’s been a problem, as they have just one takeaway in two games. Worse, corner Dwayne Gratz and safety Jonathan Cyprien are both on the doubtful end of doubtful to play. The Jaguars just don’t have depth on defense to absorb those kind of losses, even if neither player has met expectations thus far. I do think Bortles and Allen Robinson have big outings, but it won’t be enough to match Brady, Gronk, Dion Lewis et al.

Patriots 31, Jaguars 21 

- New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-6.5): This forecast is clouded by the uncertain status of Drew Brees. Early reports from New Orleans had him missing several weeks with an injury to his throwing shoulder, but he has practiced on a limited basis during the week and says he has every intention of playing.

If Brees doesn’t play, the Saints might as well not even make the flight to Charlotte. While the Panthers haven’t been great, they are 2-0 and are solid enough to kick an inferior opponent while its down. Even with Brees giving it a go, there just isn’t the chemistry and cohesion to the Saints offense of recent years. Carolina has a stingy defense, second in the league in points allowed and first in yards per play. The level of competition has not been strong, but they can only play who is in front of them. The level of competition remains weak, and that enables the Panthers to improve to 3-0. If Brees plays, the Saints cover the spread. If not, it’s conceivable we see a shutout.

Panthers 20, Saints 12

- Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets (-2.5): The Eagles have no run game. Their interior offensive line is atrocious, and DeMarco Murray doesn’t fit stylistically with what majordomo Chip Kelly wants out of his running backs. Murray is also dinged up, missing practice Wednesday with a hamstring tweak.

All of this plays into the hands of the Jets, who have arguably the best pass defense from front to back in the NFL. Their line can rush, their LBs blitz well and have some coverage ability, and their corners are playmaking balls of frustration for opposing wideouts. If the Eagles can’t run, and I don’t see them fixing that overnight, they’re going to have to throw. A lot. And that’s a very difficult road to success in New York.

The only thing holding me back from boldly predicting a major whitewashing by the Jets is their quarterback. Ryan Fitzpatrick is capable of being quite good, but he’s also quite capable of throwing a game away all by himself. The Jets run game isn’t all that great either, which means Fitzpatrick will have to air it out at times to beat the Eagles defense. Eric Decker, the most consistent receiver, is gimpy with a bum knee. Chris Owusu, who was establishing himself as the third wideout, is out too. And Brandon Marshall is the type of wideout that oft-toasted Eagles CB Byron Maxwell actually matches up well against. Marshall is very physical but not a threat to run past anyone, and Maxwell’s primary problem is that wideouts have been sailing past him all season. I worry that Fitzpatrick will try to force one too many, and Maxwell will remind the beleaguered Philly fans why their organization shelled out $63M for a player currently graded 91st out of 101 at his position.

Then again, the Jets are a league-best +8 in turnover differential, having forced 10 takeaways in two games. Sam Bradford, Philly’s QB, has thrown four INTs already and generally stands up to pressure about as well as wet bread in a toaster.

Jets 21, Eagles 17 

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-6.5): There has been some fun verbal jousting between J.J. Watt and Jameis Winston, the two marquee performers in this matchup. Watt will be tasked with containing Winston, who has played better than you’ve been told he would since his dubious first NFL pass.

He’s markedly better already than either Ryan Mallett or Brian Hoyer, the two Texans trying desperately to help Houston crack the win column. It would help a lot if top target Nuk Hopkins can go, but he’s questionable with a concussion (missed practice Wed.). There’s a chance Arian Foster returns to the lineup, and the Texans could surely use him too. At least they still have Watt, and he has some help around him too. The Tampa Bay offensive line got a break last week against the toothless Saints. I think they get bit in Houston.

Texans 22, Buccaneers 13 

- San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5): If I were doing a power ranking right now, I’d have a hard time not putting Arizona in the top spot. The Trench Counter, a pretty cool methodology of ranking teams my editor Christopher Reina has developed, has the Cardinals in the #2 spot. They’re so balanced on both sides of the ball, and that makes them a very tough opponent. Last week’s humbling loss to Pittsburgh revealed the thin margin for error San Francisco has in beating teams that can score. Arizona can score, and has even done so on the opening kickoff. I like the Cards big here.

Cardinals 27, 49ers 13

- Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2.5): This is a critical AFC East challenge, as the loser here falls alone into last place in what appears to be the NFL’s deepest and toughest division. Both teams are coming off discouraging losses where they were flat and outplayed, or flat-out outplayed if you prefer.

I like the Bills to pull off the road win for one basic reason: Rex Ryan coaches to win, Joe Philbin coaches not to lose. When all else is relatively equal, and that is true here, the team playing to win will beat the team playing not to lose. Consternation abounds in Miami about Ndamukong Suh going off script, but he’s doing so trying to make plays. The fact the coaching staff is apparently okay with him not making plays is a stark indictment of playing not to lose. Now imagine Ryan with Suh up front. That’s the difference here.

Bills 16, Dolphins 14 

- Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (-14.5): For my money, the Chicago Bears have the least-talented overall roster in the league. With Jay Cutler iffy, any chance they have is out the window. They stand very little chance anyway facing a winless Seattle team playing its home opener and hoping to unleash some pent-up frustration. Chicago’s defensive line isn’t awful, and that could pose some problems for Seattle’s offensive line, which most certainly is awful. Still, barring a -3 turnover ratio the home team will prevail.

Seahawks 33, Bears 13

- Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (+4.5): For the first half of their opener in San Diego, these Lions looked like the best team in the league. Matthew Stafford was masterful in controlling the offense, while the defense was making big plays and getting off the field well. Since then, it’s been ugly for Detroit. The offensive line has been brutal, the run game nonexistent. Stafford has taken a beating and the base offense has slowed to a crawl. Other than too-late rallies in both games where Stafford expertly guided the hurry-up offense, it’s been painful to watch Detroit’s offense and seeing Calvin Johnson wither on the vine.

That Lions team we saw in the first half in San Diego is still here. Somewhere. Maybe playing at home for the first time will help. Maybe getting DeAndre Levy, the best player on the defense, back in the lineup will help. Maybe a solidified offensive line with LaAdrian Waddle back at right tackle and a healthier Larry Warford at right guard will help.

The point here? Don’t be too quick to dismiss the Lions in this one. They’re a talented football team underachieving right now. And the last two meetings have been complete routs by Detroit, 44-7 (2007) and 45-10 (2011). Unfortunately for Detroit, Denver’s strengths--edge pass rush, precision passing in short yardage and the red zone, pass coverage outside the hashes--match up very well with Detroit’s weaknesses. It could be a long night for the Ford Field faithful.

Broncos 31, Lions 23

Monday

- Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers (-7.5): The Chiefs have a real chance to pull the upset win, and it’s thanks to the ferocious Kansas City pass rush. With right tackle Bryan Bulaga out and left tackle David Bakhtiari struggling with athleticism, it’s not going to be easy for Aaron Rodgers.

At yes, Bakhtiari and athleticism. In last week’s win over Seattle, NBC announcer Cris Collinsworth kept praising how great Bakhtiari’s athleticism handled speed off the edge. Collinsworth--who I generally like a lot--kept clinging to it even when the Seahawks were beating the third-year tackle almost as if he wasn’t even there. It got to the point where I was reminded of The Princess Bride and Inigo Montoya’s response to Vizzini repeatedly misusing the word “inconceivable”.

“You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”

Eddie Lacy’s questionable status makes this an even tougher prediction. James Starks is a quality backup but he’s not Lacy, and the Packers will need to threaten Kansas City with the run or else Aaron Rodgers might be the next key Packer heading to the injury list. Having said all that, I just can’t see the Chiefs outscoring the Packers in Lambeau Field unless Alex Smith decides to throw multiple touchdowns to wide receivers. Seeing as how he hasn’t thrown one since Frozen was still in theaters as a new release, I feel confident the Packers get it done.

Packers 24, Chiefs 20